Europe methanol futures liquidity surges in June, open interest rises
Eashani Chavda
03-Jul-2020
LONDON (ICIS)–Activity in the European methanol futures market surged in June, with the highest year-to-date monthly volumes and the second-highest trading month on record.
– Liquidity for Q3/Q4 futures trades
– Rise in open interest stats
– Europe spot market volatility continues
JUNE LIQUIDITY
Traded
volumes cleared through the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME) Group’s NYMEX soared to 355 lots
in June, a close second to the highest volumes
recorded at 495 lots in December 2019.
One lot represents 100 metric tonnes.
This sharp increase in deals completed on the exchange platform is a stark contrast to earlier this year, when futures volumes were thin.
“What happens is that at end of the quarter you see more higher volumes traded. People begin to firm up their views […] People gage what’s going to happen on the forward curve, which leads to a liquidity surge on the futures,” said a broker.
This also happened in December 2019, with the end of the quarter and the year encouraging forward purchasing.
In the European physical spot market, price volatility rages on.
After European methanol spot prices hit €140/tonne FOB (free on board) Rotterdam in mid-May, prices have wavered between the Q2 low and high at €140-164/tonne.
PAPER MEETS PHYSICAL
PRICES
The MT2 settlement price
is calculated using the monthly average of
weekly spot prices as assessed by ICIS.
Between April and May, a total of 190 lots were traded via the CME NYMEX for delivery in Q3 and Q4.
Transactions made during these months were done at relatively higher prices at an average of €170/tonne.
April-May European futures deals cleared via the CME Group’s NYMEX were:
Date | Day | Deal (€, tonne) | Period | No of lots | Volume (tonne) |
01/04/2020 | Wed | 146 | June | 10 | 1,000 |
06/04/2020 | Mon | 178 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
16/04/2020 | Thurs | 174 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
16/04/2020 | Thurs | 185 | Q4 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
24/04/2020 | Fri | 155 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
24/04/2020 | Fri | 169 | Q4 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
27/05/2020 | Wed | 180 | Q4 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
While the mean price remains at €170/tonne for June paper trades, the mode transaction price was €159/tonne, with the paper transaction price dropping in line with physical spot prices in the €150s/tonne range as the month developed.
This change in forward pricing parallels a shift in market sentiment in the second quarter.
Hopes for demand recovery for Q3 and Q4 have diminished, as global oversupply continues, while downstream demand remains weak for key sectors such as the automotive and furniture industries.
June European futures deals cleared via the CME Group’ s NYMEX were:
Date | Day | Deal (€, tonne) | Period | No of lots | Volume (tonne) |
02/06/2020 | Tues | 159 | July | 10 | 1,000 |
02/06/2020 | Tues | 176 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
04/06/2020 | Thurs | 169 | Q4 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
04/06/2020 | Thurs | 153 | July | 10 | 1,000 |
04/06/2020 | Thurs | 159 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
04/06/2020 | Thurs | 159 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
04/06/2020 | Thurs | 154 | July | 10 | 1,000 |
05/06/2020 | Fri | 160 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
05/06/2020 | Fri | 170 | Q4 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
09/06/2020 | Tues | 168 | Q4 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
11/06/2020 | Thurs | 160 | Sept | 10 | 1,000 |
11/06/2020 | Thurs | 162 | Sept | 10 | 1,000 |
12/06/2020 | Fri | 154 | Aug | 10 | 1,000 |
12/06/2020 | Fri | 159 | Sept | 10 | 1,000 |
12/06/2020 | Fri | 158 | Sept | 10 | 1,000 |
16/06/2020 | Tues | 158 | Sept | 10 | 1,000 |
17/06/2020 | Weds | 159 | Sept | 10 | 1,000 |
18/06/2020 | Thurs | 157 | Q3 2020 | 15 | 1,500 (500 per month) |
22/06/2020 | Mon | 157 | Q3 2020 | 30 | 3,000 (1,000 per month) |
Additionally, a shift in trade activity in June showed greater market interest in shorter-term deals, with monthly contract liquidity soaring.
In April and May the majority of transactions dealt via the exchange were for quarterly contracts in Q3 and Q4.
Transactions made for September delivery were particularly popular in June, suggesting players expect price volatility in the fourth quarter.
COVID & THE FORWARD
CURVE
The European methanol
futures forward curve highlights the
significant drop in methanol futures values
before and after the pandemic spread across
Europe.
–
The March forward curve shows past expectations
that methanol values would dip in Q2, before
climbing over the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, the June forward curve is flatter, highlighting the recent change in expectations for recovery in 2020.
OPEN INTEREST
The
European methanol futures market has benefited
from growth in open interest not just over the
second quarter, but as a whole over the last
two years.
“Always a good indicator of interest in any futures market. The more open interest you have, the more people taking positions in the market basically,” added the broker.
–
“We are pleased to see the continuous growth of
futures volume in European methanol markets.
Financial derivatives can be a very useful risk
management tool for the industry – and
continuous use throughout the last few months
shows that many participants support the
product,” said Owain Johnson, global head of
research at CME Group.
Increased liquidity in the methanol futures market could continue as uncertainty and bearish fundamentals are likely to drive spot prices volatility for the second half of the year.
Methanol is primarily used to produce formaldehyde, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and acetic acid. Smaller amounts go into production of dimethyl terephthalate (DMT), methyl methacrylate (MMA), chloromethanes, methylamines, glycol methyl ethers, and fuels applications such dimethyl ether (DME), biodiesel and the direct blending into gasoline.
Front page picture source: Tannen Maury/EPA/Shutterstock
Focus article by Eashani Chavda
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