Nuclear power could support UK’s hydrogen ambitions

• Nuclear power could generate 33% of UK hydrogen by 2050

• Renewable capacity could push nuclear out of the mix

• Potential 1GW nuclear hydrogen project

LONDON (ICIS)–Nuclear capacity in Britain may well drop over the coming decade due to ambitious renewable targets. However, a roadmap from the Nuclear Industry Association (NIA) indicates the power source could be crucial to UK hydrogen up to 2050.

The NIA roadmap, launched on 17 February 2021, states that nuclear power could help generate 75TWh of low-carbon hydrogen by 2050, 33% of the Climate Change Committee’s target of 225TWh to support decarbonisation efforts.

However, this figure is based on 12-13GW of installed nuclear capacity – a figure ICIS analysts forecast may not be available under two-out-of-three future scenarios for UK power up to 2050.

BENEFITS OF NUCLEAR HYDROGEN

One of the key benefits to nuclear generation is its ability to consistently power electrolysers over long periods of time, meaning lower risk of price fluctuation.

Comparatively, changes in renewable output can lead to spikes in power prices and supply tightness, subsequently reducing output of green hydrogen production and increasing its price.

According to the NIA roadmap, nuclear hydrogen could be as cheap as $2.5/kgh2, putting it close to the cost of blue hydrogen.

Nuclear generation can also contribute to hydrogen production beyond cold water electrolysis, utilising the heat from the reactors to support more efficient steam electrolysis, the NIA document states.

The heat from the reactors could also be used for the generation of blue hydrogen, a process where natural gas is exposed to high levels of heat to separate out carbon and hydrogen from methane.

Lastly, the low carbon intensity of nuclear power means it supports a net-zero ambition. The NIA report suggests that nuclear-generated hydrogen should be regarded as green hydrogen – which is commonly considered hydrogen produced using an electrolyser powered by renewables.

NIA RECOMMENDATIONS

Alongside defining nuclear hydrogen as green hydrogen, the NIA hydrogen roadmap makes further recommendations to the UK government:

– Develop an ambitious carbon pricing system

– Create a grant and subsidy scheme to encourage research and development to help reduce the cost of electrolysers

– A new funding model to reduce the capital cost associated with nuclear projects

– A new scheme to replace payments to zero-carbon generators for reducing generation at times of oversupply and instead use the extra electricity to support for hydrogen production

– Nuclear-hydrogen production is included in the recently announced Net Zero Hydrogen Production fund

UK NUCLEAR PRODUCTION

ICIS analysts have projected three scenarios for the UK’s nuclear generation capacity up to 2050.

Current projections account for French utility EDF’s Hinkley Point C 3.2GW plant coming online in 2026.

Between now and 2024, eight plants are expected to come offline, reducing capacity by 4.2GW. By 2030, 14 units will have come offline, taking reduced capacity to 7.2GW.

Under the High Res scenario, no further nuclear capacity is projected to come online after Hinkley Point C.

Under High Res, ICIS models show that just 4.4GW of capacity will remain by 2030, well below the 12-13GW outlined in the NIA’s roadmap. Comparatively, 83GW of renewable capacity will be installed by 2030 and 122GW by 2036.

Although ICIS projects an additional three plants coming online after Hinkley Point C under its Base Case scenario, this will see nuclear capacity top out at 10.7GW by 2036, while renewables hit 101GW.

It is only under Low Res, when renewable capacity is just 79GW by 2036 where nuclear capacity ramps up substantially, climbing to 17.5GW by the same year. It is under the Low Res scenario that further six plants are built, including Hinkley Point C.

FREEPORT EAST HYDROGEN HUB

The Freeport East Hydrogen Hub, part of the Freeport East bid to make the Port of Felixstowe and the Harwich International Port part of the UK government’s freeport scheme, aims to deliver 1GW of hydrogen, 20% of the 5GW earmarked in the UK government’s Ten Point Plant for a Green Industrial Revolution.

The 1GW project will be delivered as a partnership with Ryse Hydrogen and Sizewell C nuclear developers French utility EDF.

Jo Bamford, executive chairman of Ryse Hydrogen, stated delivery could be “achievable within 18 months due to the significant private organisations involved.”