May WASDE shows USDA anticipating larger corn and soybean supplies

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is anticipating larger corn and soybean supplies and ending stocks according to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.

For corn, the outlook is for not only increased supply and stockpiles, but also greater domestic use and exports with the current corn crop being projected at 14.9 billion bushels.

This is a dip of 3% from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield.

Right now, the yield projection is at 181.0 bushels per acre and is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 period.

With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecasted to be at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017-2018.

Total US corn use is forecast to rise just under 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels.

Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago, based on expectations of flat motor gasoline consumption. Feed and residual use is projected higher on larger supplies and lower expected prices.

Corn exports are forecasted to rise by 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels, supported by a reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine with the US projected to be the world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share.

With total US corn supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 80 million bushels from last year, and if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-2019.

The season-average farm price for corn is now being projected at $4.40 per bushel.

For soybeans, the monthly update is calling for not only higher supplies and ending stockpiles but also upticks in exports.

Currently the soybean crop is being projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million bushels on higher area and trend yield.

With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8% from 2023-2024.

Soybean exports are forecasted to come in at 1.83 billion bushels, which would be up by 125 million bushels from 2023-2024 with higher exports this fall due to a lower Brazilian 2024 harvest.

With strong seasonal exports after harvest followed by pressure from larger South American production in 2025, the US. share of global exports is forecast at 28%, down from the prior five-year average of 32%.

Ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, up 105 million bushels from last year.

The current season-average soybean price is forecasted at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023-2024.

The next WASDE report will be released on 12 June,