Summary of mid-year Europe OUTLOOK stories

ICIS Editorial

04-Aug-2022

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are the second half (H2) 2022 European OUTLOOK stories which ran on ICIS news throughout July and the first week of August.

Tight supply concerns flip to reduced oil demand by Q4
Oil prices were in a post-Covid recovery phase prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

Europe ethylene, propylene players face remainder of year with trepidation
Attempting to predict the outlook for Europe’s ethylene and propylene markets in any given year is tricky at the best of times, but what about now?

Europe MX supply and demand to face obstacles in H2
European mixed xylene (MX) supply and demand are expected to encounter a number of hurdles in H2 2022, and this is likely to limit any future market progress.

Europe toluene H2 supply to be adequate, demand faces hurdles
European toluene availability in H2 2022 is expected to be sufficient while consumption faces some limitations.

Europe methanol supply to rise in H2, demand stable to soft
European methanol market conditions are expected to lengthen in H2 2022 while demand is stable to soft depending on the application.

European PE/PP players wait and hope for rebound from September
Rollercoasters are overused as a metaphor for anything you can plot on a graph against time, or even any experience that elicits a variety of emotions.

Europe PET caught between high costs and cheap imports
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) in Europe has an intricate dance to perform heading towards 2023 contract talks, as sellers consider high energy costs while buyers are lured by imports.

European R-PET faces uncertainty, feedstock challenges
The European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market stabilised in July as some monthly prices rolled over for the first time since October, but several factors including taxes, regulation, availability and macroeconomic issues make the outlook for the rest of the year increasingly uncertain.

European base oils demand weakens for Q3, production curtailment likely to continue
The European Group I base oils market has paused in early H2 (second half) 2022 as a seasonal demand lull sets in. Activity is expected to resume in September with players eager to see how the supply/demand landscape will develop.

Turkey PE/PP markets uncertain amid economic woes
Ongoing economic concerns across Turkey have thrown the polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) outlook into uncertainty amid crashing demand.

European MEG market remains gloomy on poor demand, spot under pressure
Conditions in the European monoethylene glycol (MEG) market have been weak for most of 2022 and the situation is unlikely to change this month, at the very earliest.

Europe SBR demand expectations lower, production cost concerns
European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand could slow in 2H 2022, but worries over gas supply resurged this month, weighing on expectations about production costs.

Europe PA and MA caught between imports and high energy prices
Players in the European phthalic anhydride (PA) and maleic anhydride (MA) markets say the outlook for demand is bleak as pressure on production costs is unlikely to subside.

Europe PS, EPS demand may improve in September, October but softer overall in H2
Softer demand trends are expected across the second half of 2022 in both the European polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene (EPS) markets, although there could be temporary improvement in September and October compared to July and August.

Uncertain half-year ahead for Europe’s glycol ethers market
Players in Europe’s glycol ethers markets face an uncertain outlook for the second-half of the year.

Europe biodiesel market set to grapple with supply chain issues in H2
The European biodiesel market is expected to face diverging demand trends colliding with supply chain issues for various grades through the remainder of 2022.

Europe ethanol faces diverging supply, demand trends for H2
Europe’s ethanol market is set for a turbulent second half as different ethanol grade segments are expected to grapple with diverging supply and demand trends for the remainder of the year.

Europe ABS, SAN supply expected to stay balanced to long in H2
Supply in Europe’s acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) markets are expected to be balanced to long across the second half of 2022 because of softer demand trends and an uncertain outlook.

Europe glycerine anticipates supply stability in H2
Europe’s glycerine market will be increasingly reliant on imports from southeast Asia and south America to maintain stability of supply  through H2.

Europe ADA, nylon 6,6 to face slow demand, ample supply in H2
The European adipic acid (ADA) and downstream nylon 6,6 markets are set for challenging trading conditions in the second half of 2022.

Europe H2 AA and acrylate esters murky amid gas supply uncertainty
The European acrylic acid (AA) and acrylate ester markets face a challenging 2H 2022 with uncertainty surrounding gas supply and prices adding to the difficulties.

Europe ACN to face ample supply, weak demand and high costs in second half
The outlook for European acrylonitrile (ACN) is rather gloomy and sources are getting ready for the second act, which is set to deliver yet more challenges to players.

Europe capro, nylon 6 struggles to continue in H2 2022
The European caprolactam (capro) and nylon 6 supply chain is entering second half of 2022 battered by soaring input costs, seriously eroded producer margins and concerns over downstream affordability as both buyers and producers struggle to pass on rising costs in product pricing.

European fatty acids/alcohols demand weakens for H2
After a firm H1 2022, European fatty acids and alcohols demand has weakened for H2 following increased availability both domestically and from Asian imports.

Europe soda ash market considers quarterly prices as yearly contracts see further correction
Northwest Europe (NWE) and Black Sea contract prices rose 3% and 5.4% from Q2 contract prices this week, marking a third adjustment to annual agreements settled in Q4 last year, as the market reconsiders the pace at which to negotiate prices going forward in the face of heightened volatility in upstream markets.

Europe MDI, TDI demand conditions not so rosy in H2 2022
European toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and crude and pure methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) is headed on a downward trajectory in H2.

Europe polyols supply to outstrip demand in H2
European flexible slabstock polyol availability is expected to be ample in H2 2002, as demand is on a downward trajectory.

Africa PE, PP demand could suffer from cost-of-living crisis
A cost-of-living crisis plays out very differently in weaker economies than in stronger ones.

Europe plasticizers market faces unsettled H2 2022
Each key plasticizer in the European spot market has slightly differing dynamics at present, but the general H2 outlook will be shaped by low visibility, high production costs and inflationary pressures.

Europe oxo-alcohols spot market faces uncertain H2 2022
Uncertainty looms over the European oxo-alcohols spot market as security of natural gas supply, tensions with Russia and inflationary pressures are clouding the outlook for H2.

Headwinds to weigh on Europe BPA in H2 2022
Declining derivative demand and cheaper Asian imports could weigh on the European bisphenol A (BPA) market in 2H 2022.

European melamine demand expectations reduced; suppliers face high production costs
European melamine quarterly contract discussions are taking place in a very tough market environment. Suppliers struggle to meet consumer expectations due to production cost constraints that contradict the weak demand expectations and supply length caused by import pressure.

Further weakness anticipated in the European propylene glycol ethers market
With certain availability constraints set to ease into Q3 and few expecting any demand improvements before the autumn at the earliest, market participants widely expect further pressure on propylene glycol ethers through the summer, with significant uncertainty into September, linked to the health of the wider economy and key end uses.

Headwinds could change course of Europe TiO2 in H2 2022
The downturn in European demand, a slow and export-hungry China market and conflicting price tendencies in Europe and Asia could lead to a change of course in the European titanium dioxide (TiO2) market in the second half of the year, after a prolonged upcycle.

Soft demand, upstream cost uncertainties to define Europe PC in H2 2022
The European polycarbonate (PC) market faces a second half of the year in which demand levels are expected to be subdued and production costs will likely remain a source of uncertainty and increased volatility.

European MMA demand uncertain amid wider economic challenges
The European methyl methacrylate (MMA) market is facing uncertain H2 demand amid wider geopolitical and economic challenges.

European POM supply issues to persist, PBT availability to be in balance with imports
Supply for polyacetal (POM) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) in Europe is predicted to diverge, but both markets are expected to face issues with consumption in the second half of the year.

Phenol and acetone at mercy of upstream, hoping for demand resurrection
Feedstock and gas costs will be major influencers in the European phenol and acetone markets in H2 2022. Their impact on demand is the big question hanging over the market.

High production costs, soft demand and strong uncertainty to define Europe MPG spot market
The European monopropylene glycol (MPG) spot market has been defined by healthy supply and limited buying interest for an extended period and sources are unsure if the demand picture will shift in H2, and, if so, to what extent.

Inflation and volatility to stress European refinery solvents in H2 2022
European refinery solvents markets will be at the whim of upstream feedstock and energy prices in the second half of 2022.

Europe BDO market to remain in balance on subdued demand
Persistent signs of demand weakness look set to hit the European butanediol (BDO) market in the second half of this year, although supply is likely to remain balanced despite production problems.

Europe ECH supply could relax in the second half of the year
Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply could relax over the coming months, amid some derivative summer turnarounds, the prospect of more Asian imports and some debottlenecked capacity in Europe.

Europe ethanolamines braces for output cutbacks amid cost issues, demand uncertainty
Amid rising natural gas costs, certain European ethanolamines producers face the prospect of curtailing homologue production.

Europe epoxy challenges mount, some downstream support needed
The clash between opposing cost and market factors in the European epoxy sector is intensifying in July, as production costs soar, while demand is waning for various reasons.

Europe LPG trajectory hinges on Asia recovery, seasonal demand boost
A seasonal demand lull and poor Asian buying interest in Q2 translated into soft demand for European LPG cargoes but a pick up is expected by late Q3 as coronavirus restrictions are due to lift in Asia.

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