PODCAST: High gas prices, shortages here to stay, Europe chemicals must adapt

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Europe gas prices will remain high and shortages will persist for 2-3 years with major risks for winter 2023, according to a scenario analysis by ICIS.

• Winter 2023 supply risk more severe than this winter
• Mild weather gives false sense of security over gas supplies, prices
• Europe will have to maintain existing demand cuts throughout 2023
• Worse supply threat for peak demand winter 2023 than this year
• China revival would threaten Europe liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies
• Europe receives +50 bcm LNG, -63 bcm Russian gas January-October 2022 year-on-year
• Planned projects for 2023 could add 16 bcm to Europe LNG supply
• More LNG investment needed to fully replace Russian gas
• Gas prices forecast to remain above €100/MWh for 2-3 years
• Long-term Germany loses cheap Russian gas, exposed to global prices
• Brenntag’s proposed merger with Univar highlights change in chemical distribution

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS gas analyst Paula Di Mattia, ICIS insight editor Nigel Davis, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

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