Corrected: Forecasters predict slightly below-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) are predicting a slightly below-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on the likely development of an El Nino weather pattern but cautioned that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook.

The CSU hurricane researchers predicted there will be 13 named storms, with six predicted to become hurricanes, and two of those could be major.

The average from 1991 through 2020 is 14.4 named storms, as shown in the following table.

CSU meteorologists said that the tropical Pacific currently has El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions – an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean.

Current large-scale conditions and forecasts indicate that a transition to El Nino is relatively likely in the next several months, the forecasters said.

“However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong El Nino would be if it does develop,” the CSU team said. “El Nino tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. The increased upper-level winds result in vertical wind shear which can tear apart hurricanes as they try to form.”

When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, this tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic, forecasters said.

These conditions lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The anomalously warm eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic favor an above-normal season.

“Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Nino and an anomalously warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook,” the CSU team said.

Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, numbered from 1 to 5, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds, with a Category 5 storm being the strongest.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category	Wind speed
1	74-95 miles/hour
2	96-110 miles/hour
3	111-129 miles/hour
4	130-156 miles/hour
5	157+ miles/hour

Hurricanes and tropical storms can disrupt the North American petrochemical industry, because many of the nation’s plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that in 2021 offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production, and about 2% of total dry natural gas production.

Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution.

The 2022 hurricane season was near-average and less than what was originally forecast.

Devastating storm surge, strong winds and heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ian combined to cause more than $50bn in damage and over 130 fatalities in the continental US.

Minimal impact was seen in the oil and chemicals industries, with only a handful of oil rigs on the US Gulf Coast experiencing brief shut-ins.

Chemical facilities in Florida, Georgia and the US Carolinas also experienced brief closures during Hurricane Ian.

Additional reporting by JT Strasner

Thumbnail photo shows Hurricane Laura. Photo by Shutterstock