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BLOG: The first of three things you should do during the rest of this downturn
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. At first glance, the latest ICIS ethylene operating rate forecast is alarming. Even by 2035, global operating rates could still be below their long-term average—potentially marking a 14-year downturn since the Evergrande Turning Point in late 2021. But here’s the good news: This is a live situation, and industry adaptation is inevitable. The future is not set in stone—it will be shaped by the decisions we make today. The Data Speaks • ICIS base case projections show an average 6.3 million tonnes per year of new capacity. • However, by reducing this to 2.5 million tonnes per year, operating rates could return to 87%—the long-term norm. • The question is: When and how will the market rebalance? Plant Closures, Project Delays & Cancellations: The Unknowns Balancing the market means making difficult decisions, but shutdowns and project delays are far from straightforward: • Timing uncertainty – Could the upturn come sooner than expected? • High exit costs – Environmental clean-up and pension liabilities complicate shutdowns. • China’s role – Ageing plants, coal-based capacity, refinery feedstock limits, and regulatory shifts could drive rationalisation, but when and to what extent? • Government intervention – Will policy sustain industries in Europe & South Korea, or will we see major consolidations? Your Three-Point Plan for Success 1. Update the data every six months – Ethylene is just the start. Conduct the same detailed analysis for every product, country, and region. 2. Stay ahead of trade policy – As global trade tensions rise, import tariffs will shift market dynamics. Companies that act early will gain an advantage. 3. Leverage AI & analytics – Cost savings and efficiencies from AI-driven tools like Ask ICIS are already transforming decision-making. What This Means for You Yes, the downturn is severe, but opportunities remain. A data-driven approach will enable your business to adapt, optimise, and position itself for the recovery. Are you ready? Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.
US higher steel tariffs could backfire, reduce capex in chemical, industrial plants – ICIS economist
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Potential US 25% tariffs on steel and other metals could ultimately reduce capital expenditure (capex) in chemicals and industrial plants as costs rise, according to an economist at ICIS. Kevin Swift, senior economist for global chemicals at ICIS, said “steel is a classic example” of how tariffs work and can harm other manufacturing industries. At the weekend, US President Donald Trump said he plans to impose fresh 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. “Any steel coming into the US is going to have a 25% tariff – aluminium too,” said Trump. Canada, Brazil and Mexico supply most steel to the US. Trump said the metal levies would apply to “everybody” but the White House has not yet published an official communication on these tariffs. Earlier on Monday, Brazilian daily Folha de S. Paulo cited an unnamed government source saying Brazil could tax more to US technological majors in retaliation for the steel tariff: around half of Brazil’s steel output is sold to the US. The economy minister, Fernando Haddad, denied such a possibility later in the day. The US’s chemicals trade group the American Chemistry Council (ACC) had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. HIGHER PRICES, LOWER INVESTMENTSWith the US’s steel output declining for decades, the country’s strong manufacturing industries have become dependent on imports, with a large trade deficit. It remains to be seen whether higher tariffs can also bring back to the US higher steel output. In the meantime, however, higher tariffs are going to increase prices for a variety of manufacturing sectors, who will lose competitiveness when they try to pass higher costs on. “A tariff raises the price in the market as domestic steel producers raise the price for steel to match the tariff… Higher price lowers quantity demanded (law of demand) but does increase quantity supplied by domestic producers. Tariffs allow inefficient domestic products to produce when then they could not have done so without the tariff,” said ICIS’s Swift. “Steel tariffs will raise the cost of building a chemical plant, for ongoing maintenance, etc. These will especially hurt when government policy is to foster re-shoring and FDI [foreign direct investment] in the US.” Swift cited two studies conducted during Trump’s first term, when higher tariffs on steel were imposed on some countries. One of the research pieces examined the impact of higher tariffs on employment in US steel and aluminium industries: jobs in these metals, mainly steel, would increase by 26,000 over three years, but at the same time employment in the rest of the economy would decline by 433,000 jobs. “Owing to damage of higher steel and aluminium prices on customer industries,” said Swift. “Another analysis focusing solely on steel shows that steel users paid an additional $5.6 billion for more expensive domestic steel; steel users will pay about $650,000 for each job created in the steel industry.” TEMPORARY RISEAnalysts at London-headquartered Capital Economics were more optimistic, arguing that any price rise due to higher tariffs would be temporary. “If 2018 is any guide, steel and aluminium import prices will rise one-to-one with the new tariffs. But the import share of steel, the more important of the two for domestic consumption, has fallen by 8%-points since then to 32%. That lower import intensity means the tariffs will have a smaller impact on US prices,” said the analysts. “The rise in US steel prices then was short-lived, as US production rose, demand fell amid a global industrial slowdown, and Trump granted an exemption for imports from Canada and Mexico. The current low level of industrial utilization in the steel sector means there is again scope for production to pick up.” Capital Economics was more doubtful about the positive impact of the higher tariffs in both the steel sector but also the wider economy. “Any rise in production is unlikely to materially boost the overall economy. Even if total fabricated metals production rebounded to the peak seen after the first Trump steel and aluminium tariffs, it would boost industrial production by just 0.4% and GDP by just 0.05%,” they concluded. Frong page picture source: World Steel Association (Worldsteel)
PODCAST: Europe PE/PP eyes seeds of Jan rebound, braces for Feb battle
LONDON (ICIS)–What with tough financial results from some producers, the threat of tariffs and upstream price wobbles, 2025 already has a lot to discuss for Europe polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) senior editors. Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake look back on January trends and what is being tussled over for February in contract talks. They touch on LyondellBasell’s Q4 results,  Dow CEO Jim Fitterling’s downbeat view on demand, early February market trends and ICIS’ article about the southeast Asia PE plant shutdowns deemed necessary for rebalancing. Podcast edited by Will Beacham ICIS senior analysts, editors and managers will be at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Cologne, Germany on the 8-9 April for the 11th ICIS World Polyolefins Conference. You’ll also get to hear from industry leaders like Borealis, LyondellBasell and Covestro, as they share their insights. Discover more: .

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Latin America stories: weekly summary
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 7 February. NEWS US tariffs could jeopardize $800 million of Mexican plastics exportsPotential US tariffs of 25% on all goods coming from Mexico could hit the country’s plastics sector hard, with exports to the US worth $800million, plastics sector trade group Anipac said this week. US suspends tariffs on Mexico for one month as high-level talks on key issues startThe US has agreed to pause for one month its 25% import tariffs on Mexican goods as the two countries agreed setting up working groups on three key issues, the presidents of both countries said on Monday. Brazil’s Braskem Q4 resin sales fall 7% quarterly on lower PE, PP demandResin sales in Braskem’s domestic market dropped by 7% in Q4 2024 compared with Q3 2024, mainly due to the decreased demand for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) explained by the seasonality of the period, the Brazilian petrochemicals major said on Wednesday in its quarterly production and sales report. Brazil’s Unigel appoints Dario Gaeta as CEO after debt restructuring greenlitBrazilian chemicals producer Unigel has concluded its debt restructuring process worth Brazilian reais (R) 5.1 billion ($885 million) after a Sao Paulo business court greenlit the plans drawn up by creditors. Brazil’s industry broadly declines in December – trade groupBrazil’s industrial activity key metrics slowed down in December, with revenue and production hours both falling 1.3% from November, trade group the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) said on Friday. Brazil chemicals output falls slightly in December; up 3.3% annuallyBrazil’s chemicals output fell by 0.8% in December, month on month, but it rose by 3.3% in 2024, compared with 2023, the country’s statistical agency IBGE said on Wednesday. Brazil’s manufacturing expansion keeps slowing on currency, fiscal woesBrazilian manufacturing continued expanding in January albeit at lower rates than for most of 2024 as currency weakness drove up import costs and dampened demand, though firms remained optimistic enough to hire temporary workers, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Mexico’s manufacturing slump deepens as new orders keep fallingMexico’s manufacturing sector contracted for a seventh straight month in January as new orders fell at their fastest pace since October, analysts at S&P Global said. Colombia’s manufacturing jumps in January on sharply higher new ordersColombian manufacturing growth accelerated sharply in January as new orders rose at their fastest pace in a year, driving increased hiring and purchasing activity, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Brazil chemicals deficit hits $49 billion in 2024 despite higher tariffs by year-endBrazil’s chemical industry posted a $48.7 billion trade deficit in 2024 as imports surged to $63.9 billion, driven by “predatory pricing” from US and Asian suppliers, the country’s chemicals trade group Abiquim said. Brazil chemicals producer prices up 12% in 2024Chemical producer prices in Brazil rose 12.2% in 2024 year on year, and above the average for industrial producer prices, the country’s statistical agency IBGE said on Tuesday. PRICINGLatAm PP international prices stable to up on ´higher feedstock costs, squeezed marginsInternational polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed as steady to higher across the region on the back of higher feedstock costs and squeezed margins. LatAm PE domestic, international prices increase on higher US export offersDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices increased across the region on the back of higher US export offers.
Americas top stories: weekly summary
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 7 February. INSIGHT: US tariffs unleash higher costs to nation’s chem industry The tariffs that the US will impose on all imports from Canada, Mexico and China will unleash higher costs for the nation’s chemical industry, create supply-chain snarls and open it to retaliation. UPDATE: China retaliates with tariffs on US coal, crude, LNG China announced on Tuesday that it will levy 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the US, and a 10% tariff on US crude oil, farm equipment and certain vehicles from 10 February – reviving a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. SHIPPING: US shippers likely to frontload cargos amid 30-day pause on tariffs With the US agreeing to a 30-day pause before proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect, shipping analysts anticipate a rush to frontload as much cargo as possible over the next month. US Jan auto sales up year on year; analysts expect growth in 2025 with some headwinds US January sales of new light vehicles rose year on year, and market analysts expect sales in 2025 to grow by 1.5-2.0% even with some headwinds including persistently high interest rates and a pushback on electric vehicles (EVs) under the new presidential administration. US tariffs could jeopardize $800 million of Mexican plastics exports Potential US tariffs of 25% on all goods coming from Mexico could hit the country’s plastics sector hard, with exports to the US worth $800million, plastics sector trade group Anipac said this week. UBS sees US imposing further tariffs on China imports in Q3 2025 and 2026 The US implementing 10% additional tariffs on all goods imports from China on 4 February is likely to be just the beginning, with further duties being imposed later in 2025 and 2026, said investment bank UBS’s chief China economist.
BLOG: Smartphone sales confirm how ‘value for money’ is starting to drive consumer demand
LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which takes the usual quarterly look at what’s happening in the smartphone market. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 7 February. BP puts Gelsenkirchen, Germany refinery, crackers up for sale BP plans to sell its to sell its Ruhr Oel refinery, crackers and downstream assets at Gelsenkirchen in Germany. Surge in natural gas prices highlights problem for chemical producers in Europe The challenges facing petrochemical producers in Europe are well documented, but higher natural gas prices this winter and an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports highlight just how tough these difficulties are – particularly in comparison with other regions. EU defiant on tariff threats but faltering growth could limit response The European Commission has pronounced itself ready to respond to any tariff measures introduced by the US, but the fragility of the region’s recovery leaves it ill-equipped to fight a trade war. Europe PMMA faces price squeeze from cheap imports, weak demand The polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) market in Europe faces a price and margin squeeze amid ongoing weak demand and availability of cheap imports. Europe fertilizer sector considers impact of proposed EU tariffs on Russia The announcement by the EU on 28 January that it has adopted a proposal to impose tariffs on a number of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus, as well as on certain nitrogen-based fertilizers, has been welcomed by European fertilizer producers. Urea uptick surpasses expectations as demand continues to outpace supply Expectations of an import tender in India and increasing demand from the US ahead of the start of fertilizer application for the spring will continue to boost demand for urea in the first quarter.
Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan incurs record Q4 loss; ’25 outlook downbeat
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Lotte Chemical Titan (LCT) incurred its largest-ever quarterly loss, with analysts expecting the Malaysian producer to remain in the red in 2025 amid weak economic conditions and an oversupply of petrochemical products. Indonesia LINE project start-up may be delayed 2025 plant utilization rate projected to drop to 50-55% Market volatility continues amid geopolitical uncertainties, US tariffs in Malaysian ringgit (M$) thousands Q4 2024 Q4 2023 % Change 2024 2023 % Change Revenue 1,793,286 1,855,771 -3.4 7,435,031 7,646,170 -2.8 EBITDA -506,605 -84,409 -816,443 -357,098 Net income -510,074 -186,477 -1,183,406 -702,286 On 7 February, LCT shares on Bursa Malaysia had slumped by 7% to close at a record low of ringgit (M$) 0.535, after the company reported a wider Q4 2024 net loss of M$510 million ($114 million). At 06:02 GMT on Monday, its shares recovered slightly, rising by 0.93% to M$0.540. “LCT is expected to remain loss-making in the coming quarters, as product spreads are unlikely to see meaningful improvement due to persistent supply overhang from significant capacity expansions – primarily in China – outpacing demand growth,” Malaysia-based brokerage TA Securities said in a note. While construction of its petrochemical project in Indonesia is expected to be completed in the first half of this year, commercial operations may be deferred as product spreads may remain unfavorable, the brokerage said. The project called LOTTE Chemical Indonesia’s New Ethylene (LINE) project in Merak, Indonesia is nearing completion and is expected to be fully completed by 2025. It is expected to produce 1 million tonnes/year of ethylene and 520,000 tonnes/year of propylene. In Malaysia, LCT shut in December last year its cracker in Pasir Gudang to “mitigate losses by loading down its operations”. In a statement on 6 February, LCT said that it expects ongoing volatility in the global business environment due to geopolitical factors, including the Russia-Ukraine War, Middle East tensions, and US President Donald Trump’s policies. “The sluggish economic performance and oversupply of petrochemical products in China have impacted supply and demand balances,” the company said. Malaysia, Indonesia, and the rest of ASEAN region will remain LCT’s key markets in the foreseeable future due to their strong economic growth. For 2025, Indonesia’s growth is expected to reach 5.1%, up from 5.0% in 2024, while ASEAN’s growth is projected at 4.7%, up from 4.6% in 2024. Malaysia’s GDP growth, however, is forecast to slow to 4.4%, from 4.8% in 2024, LCT said, citing projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). LCT’s plant operating rate for the whole of 2025 is expected to range from 50% to 55%, down from 57% in 2024, subject to periodic adjustments. HIGH PRODUCTION COST WEIGHS ON EARNINGS Q4 group revenue fell due to the depreciation of the US dollar against the ringgit, but was partially mitigated by higher sales volumes, Lotte Chemical Titan said in a filing on Bursa Malaysia on 6 February. A stronger ringgit makes Malaysian exports more expensive for international buyers, particularly those paying in US dollars. In 2024, the ringgit had appreciated by 2.7% against the US dollar, supported by a stronger-than-expected economic growth. Olefins and derivative products’ revenue increased by 2.0% to M$373.5 million on higher sales volume, but the segment’s loss before taxation and impairment widened to M$72.1 million from M$49.2 million in the same period of the previous year. In contrast, the polyolefin products’ revenue declined by 4.7% year on year to M$1.42 billion in Q4 2024, but the segment’s loss to narrow to M$74.3 million from M$148.5 million in the same period last year on improved margins and a reversal of an inventory write-down. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = M$4.47)
Asia top stories – weekly summary
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 7 February 2025. INSIGHT: South Korea broadens aid for struggling petrochemical industry By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Feb-25 11:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea is streamlining regulations to make it easier for regions densely populated by petrochemical companies to qualify as “industrial crisis response areas”, a designation that unlocks government support and financial assistance to mitigate impact of market downturns. Asia PE pipe prices get lift from tighter Mideast supply By Izham Ahmad 06-Feb-25 11:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Deals and offers for polyethylene (PE) pipe grade in China and southeast Asia in the week ending 5 February were mostly firmer. China petrochemical futures mixed amid renewed US-China trade war By Jonathan Yee 05-Feb-25 16:05 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets were mixed on Wednesday after the country reopened following its Lunar New Year holiday, amid a trade war renewal with the US on 4 February. Japan’s Asahi Kasei 9-month income surges; basic materials swing to profit By Nurluqman Suratman 05-Feb-25 14:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asahi Kasei’s net income surged by 68.1% year on year in the nine months to December 2024, supported by improved petrochemical prices and lower fixed costs, the Japanese chemicals major said on Wednesday. UPDATE: Oil gains, Asia petrochemical shares fall as Trump starts trade war By Nurluqman Suratman 03-Feb-25 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices jumped while shares of petrochemical firms in Asia tumbled on Monday, after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. Asia rPE, rPP demand from packaging stays subdued in Q1 By Arianne Perez 07-Feb-25 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The use of recycled polyethylene (rPE) and recycled polypropylene (rPP) for the packaging of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs) has been weak in general for Q1.
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