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HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) said in its prospective
plantings report that it expects that corn
acreage will increase by 4%, which would be an
additional 3.42m acres this spring season.
The report showed that corn planted area for
all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 92m acres,
which is a lift of 4%. Compared with last year,
planted acreage is expected to be up or
unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating states.
Currently the fertilizer industry market
estimate for the upcoming corn crop is between
92m-94m acres.
As a result ammonia and nitrogen demand
expectations are strong with increased movement
projected over the month of April if the
weather turns more favourable, with some cold
and wet lingering through March leading to a
slow start in some areas.
For soybeans the report showed that planted
area for 2023 is estimated at 87.5m acres, up
slightly from last year. Compared with last
year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 15
of the 29 estimating states.
All wheat planted area for 2023 is estimated at
49.9m acres, up 9% year-on-year with the
2023 winter wheat planted area at 37.5m
acres, which is an increase of 13%
tear-on-year.
Looking at cotton the USDA is estimating that
all cotton planted area will be at 11.3m acres,
down 18% from last year.
31-Mar-2023
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–51,000 participants attended
the plastics trade fair Plastico Brasil in Sao
Paulo this week, an increase of 13% compared
with the last edition in 2019, according to a
spokesperson.
Nearly 400 companies set up exhibition booths
at the key Latin American plastics trade fair.
Plastico Brasil concluded on Friday; it ran on
27-31 March.
PLASTICO BRASIL VS
INOVAPLASTICTwo quasi-identical
plastics trade fairs used to take place in
Brazil, Inovaplastic and Plastico Brasil.
However, Inovaplastic was cancelled in
February, just a few weeks before it was due to
take place on 14-17 March, without much
explanation from the organisers.
Inovaplastic’s cancellation allowed attendance
to Plastico Brasil to rise sharply, compared to
the previous edition.
However, it also caused some companies which
were set to exhibit at Inovaplastic to get no
space available at Plastico Brasil.
A source at a large US polymers producer said
to ICIS the company had put aside $1m to
exhibit at Inovaplastic.
Unable to exhibit at Plastico Brasil, the
company will now designate the funds to
marketing purposes, the source said.
31-Mar-2023
LONDON (ICIS)–The European Council and the
European Parliament came to a provisional
agreement on the use of hydrogen within certain
sectors as part of an update to the Renewable
Energy Directive, where member states agreed to
a binding target of 42.5% of all energy
consumption was expected to be renewable by
2030.
The provisional agreement has large
implications for hydrogen demand in Europe. For
the transport sector, a target of 5.5% of total
consumption was to come from advanced biofuels,
mostly non-food-based feedstocks, and renewable
fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), mostly
renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-based synthetic
fuels.
There is also a minimum requirement of 1% of
RFNBO in the share of renewable energies
supplied to the transport sector by 2030.
Chief executive officer of Hydrogen Europe,
Jorgo Chatzimarkarkis, noted earlier in the
week at Reuters Events Hydrogen 2023 conference
that he was concerned that sharing the
transport target between biofuels and RFNBO
would reduce total hydrogen demand, stating the
biofuels could be cheaper initially and
therefore market participants would opt to
minimise use of hydrogen.
For industry, the provisional agreement
provides that industry increases its use of
renewable energy by 1.6%/year, as well as an
agreement that 42% of the hydrogen used in
industry is to come from RFNBO by 2030 and 60%
by 2035.
However, member states can discount the
contribution of RFNBO to 20% if their
contribution to the overall EU target is met,
or the share of hydrogen from fossil fuels in
the member state is not more than 23% in 2030
and 20% in 2035.
The provisional agreement will now be submitted
to member states in the Committee of Permanent
Representatives in the council and then to the
parliament for approval, before being formally
adopted by both the parliament and the council.
COUNCIL VOTE ON LOW CARBON GASES
Earlier this week, the council agreed on
negotiating positions on two proposals that set
common market rules for renewable and natural
gases and hydrogen.
The council clarified that tariff discounts on
the gas grid for renewable gases was at 100%
and at 75% for low carbon gases, as well as
allowing for a general approach for a 2%
hydrogen blend by volume to ensure a harmonised
quality of gas.
Member states would keep the full ownership
unbundling as the default model for future
hydrogen networks, but may allow the
independent transmission system operator model
under certain conditions.
The EU has a target of a 20 million tonne/year
hydrogen economy by 2030, made up of 10 million
tonnes/year of renewable hydrogen and 10
million tonnes/year of renewable hydrogen
imports.
31-Mar-2023
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Latin American
polyethylene (PE) market is heading into a
“perfect storm” as the economy slows down while
new global capacities continue coming on
stream, according to the director at Brazil’s
chemicals distributor Piramidal.
Wilson Cataldi, director at the company he
founded in 1985, said PE coming from the US is
currently “flooding” Latin American markets,
including its largest economy of Brazil, which
is making production for non-US producers
challenging.
He added that Brazil’s economy is currently
entering a downturn which presents a “very
difficult” situation for a new government
presided over by Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva
since January.
US PE FLOODS LATAMThe US
shale gas boom and associated increase in the
supply of natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as
ethane, key for the polymers industry as it can
be transformed into building block ethylene, is
now showing its effects on the PE market and,
to a lesser extent, on polypropylene (PP).
It was always clear that US PE producers had
export markets in mind when they planned their
investments, and it was always clear that,
apart from plastics-hungry, developing Asia,
the Latin American markets would be a natural
export destination.
The effects are now in full view. Producers in
Latin America with no access to such affordable
feedstocks are taking a hit.
Brazil’s petrochemicals major Braskem, a
bellwether for the region’s petrochemicals
industry, posted heavy losses
in 2022 as high feedstocks costs met falling
profit margins caused by lower selling prices.
“A perfect storm is coming. Latin America is
flooded with US PE, and this is expected to
continue for at least two or three more years.
Supply coming from the US to Brazil, no matter
what the import tariffs are, pressures prices
down and that is going to continue for a
while,” said Cataldi.
“There are several factors which indicate a
perfect storm is brewing. There is a global
slowdown, which is also affecting Brazil, while
there is growing PE supply – the whole world is
going into a period of lower prices, for
longer.”
Cataldi went on to say that if a normal
downturn cycle can last two or three years,
PE’s overcapacity crisis “could last four or
five” years, an uneasy situation for any
polymers producer outside the US.
“There is plenty of capacity coming online
while the market is retreating,” he said.
Cataldi mentioned the import tariffs after the
Brazilian government hiked
them for several polymers following intense
lobbying from Braskem, the key PE producer in
Brazil.
While smaller players who import product said
their costs
would spike after the import tariffs
increase, both Braskem and Brazil’s chemicals
trade group Abiquim welcomed the measure.
According to Piramidal’s director, however, the
import tariff hike was expected after Braskem’s
losses in 2022. As Brazil’s state-owned energy
major Petrobras owns a 36% stake in Braskem,
the performance of the petrochemicals producer
can be considered a matter for the state to
take action on.
“All countries use these type of instruments
[to help their domestic industries]. The new
government is very much about intervening in
the market if that saves jobs. For the
Brazilian economy, I understand the hike in
imports: without that sort of external help,
Braskem would find producing very difficult,”
he said.
Cataldi said his preference would be, however,
for a free market in which the government has
little influence.
ECONOMIC POLICY, OR LACK
OFThe new Brazilian government
which took office in January has promised to
increase social spending, but Cataldi said that
promise could be difficult to fulfil given the
slowing economy, which could not generate the
tax hikes required to expand the state’s reach.
One economic sector which could do with some
government help is automotive, with several
Brazilian automobile plants going idle due to
poor demand.
Automotive majors Hyundai and
General Motors have
told ICIS some of their plants are
currently idled.
“Brazil’s vehicle production stood in February
at 130,000 units, the lowest for 17 years. As
interest rates remain high [at 13.75%], the
recovery will take some time: consumers are not
spending on durable goods such cars, TVs,
fridges…” said Capaldi.
Earlier this week, the head for the Americas at
Saudi petrochemicals major SABIC also said to
ICIS the crisis afflicting durable goods
consumption was hitting the
petrochemicals industry hard.
Overall, however, Brazil’s new cabinet still
lacks concrete economic plans which could bring
back confidence to both businesses and
consumers, said Cataldi.
In a more general reflection on Brazil’s
performance, Cataldi said the country’s
politicians tend to lack the required long-term
vision for the country to prosper.
“There is still a lot of suffering in Brazil
linked to social inequality. Interestingly, the
size of the Brazilian economy was equal to that
of China in 1970: look at where China is now,
and look at Brazil,” he said.
“When you ask what went wrong, my answer would
be: we lack leaders committed to the long term
but, instead, they are obsessed with the
short-term electoral cycle. I have been nearly
40 years running Piramidal: today, I am taking
decisions that will affect the company’s
performance in 10 years.”
Piramidal employs 200 workers and has 10
distribution centres in Brazil.
In 2022, it moved 100,000 tonnes in volumes,
and posted sales of Brazilian reais (R) 1,3bn
($245m), according to Cataldi.
This interview took place in Sao Paulo during
the plastics trade fair Plastico Brasil, which
runs on 27-31 March.
($1 = R5.09)
Front page picture: Petrochemical
facilities in Deer Park, US state of Texas;
archive image
Source: David J
Phillip/AP/Shutterstock
Interview article by Jonathan
Lopez
31-Mar-2023
Updated at 09:00 GMT on 31 March. Please
scroll down to see headlines.
The war in Ukraine has caused oil and
especially gas price volatility, as restricted
flows from Russia to Ukraine caused values to
spike to record-breaking levels.
Since December 2022, unseasonably mild winter
weather hit demand, reversing gas prices
though they remain above long-term
averages. Millions of tonnes of chemical and
fertilizer production are offline across Europe
thanks to the elevated gas prices and poor
macro-economic conditions which have impacted
demand.
India is facing a shortage of fertilizers and
edible oil amid wide-ranging trade disruptions
as the Ukraine war rages on, with financial
sanctions tightening on Russia.
Europe’s energy challenge is immense and put
into stark relief by the response to Russia’s
war in Ukraine. Cutting the ties that bind EU
and non-EU nations to Russian gas and oil will
be extremely painful this year and in years to
come.
This topic page examines the impact of the
Ukraine conflict on oil, gas, fertilizer and
chemical markets.
Image credit Vadim
Ghirda/AP/Shutterstock
Europe’s energy markets witnessed a year of
record prices and extreme volatility in 2021.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to more
difficult conditions for global markets since
then.
GAS SUMMARY
Gas storage remains robust in Europe,
winter demand has fallen thanks to mild weather
Record shipments of liquefied natural gas
(LNG) to Europe so far in 2022/23
LNG plus Norwegian, Algerian, Azerbaijani
pipeline imports compensate for Russian supply
shortfall
Europe LNG processing operating at full
capacity
Nord Stream I and II pipelines damaged by
explosions, zero flows to Europe
EU implements voluntary 15% cut to
consumption, industry may face much tougher
reductions
AMMONIA SUMMARY
Russia supplies 20% of global seaborne
ammonia market
Disrupted supply has pushed up fertilizer
and food prices
OIL SUMMARY
Friendship oil pipeline flows through
Ukraine
Russian oil feeds around a quarter of
Europe demand
Europe seeks to end reliance on Russian
crude oil
EU agrees ban on seaborne imports from 5
December 2022, petroleum products from 5
February 2023
From 5 December Russian crude oil cargoes
will only be insured if subject to price cap
CHEMICALS SUMMARY
High Europe gas, electricity prices force
capacity closures
Volatile oil and feedstock prices dent
chemical producer margins
Elevated oil, gas prices dent consumer
confidence and demand
Prospect of recession, more cheap imports
from Asia
Europe is heavily reliant on Russian gas and
exposed to disruptions in supply, but
Russia is also an important oil exporter and a
supplier of fossil fuel products, which find
their way to international markets via
Ukraine’s ports.
Sanctions and measures against Russian exports
of oil and gas have sent shockwaves across the
global economy, lifting the cost of living,
impacting industrial and agricultural
production and potentially leading to social
unrest.
How vulnerable are energy and
energy-related Russian supplies to
disruptions?
Europe has historically depended for close to
40% of its annual gas consumption on Russian
supplies, imported via four routes – Ukraine,
Belarus-Poland as well as the Nord Stream 1 and
TurkStream corridors linking Russia to Germany
and Turkey via the Baltic and Black Sea,
respectively.
Overall Russian pipeline supplies were limited
throughout 2021 and further reduced in 2022. By
the end of last year Russian pipeline supplies
fell to less than 10% of Europe’s total gas
imports compared to 40% in the previous year.
Russian volumes shipped through Ukraine to
Europe are now at third of what they should be
as part of a five-year transit agreement
Russia has banned exports of gas to several EU
countries, and the Nord Stream I and II
pipelines have been damaged. European
petrochemicals players face even higher gas
prices as a result. Fertilizer companies –
where gas can account for 80% of costs – have
been forced to curtail production. Chemicals
are also now affected, especially those with
high exposure to gas prices through utilities
or feedstocks.
If the conflict escalates, Ukraine transit
pipelines may come under attack but disruptions
could be limited because the infrastructure has
been built to grant flexibility, allowing the
operator to reroute flows away from potentially
damaged segments.
AMMONIA IMPACT
The Togliatti-Azot pipeline, the world’s
longest ammonia pipeline stretching 2,471km
from the Togliatti Azot plant in Russian Samara
Oblast to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of
Yuzhny, could be caught up in the cross-fire.
Russian ammonia supplies account for around 20%
of the global seaborne merchant ammonia market
each month.
Around two thirds of those volumes are exported
via Yuzhny, with the rest reaching European and
global markets via Baltic ports. Ammonia is a
prime material for fertilizers, so curtailments
could potentially lead to higher food prices
and shortages.
Ammonia market players are scrambling to cover
positions and assess options as the Russian
invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key
export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate
effect.
Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti
confirmed the suspension of the transit of
ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to
ensure the safety of people living in the
vicinity of the lengthy conduit.
OIL PIPELINES VULNERABLE
Supplies on the world’s longest oil pipeline,
the Friendship (Druzhba) pipeline, could be
threatened if the conflict leads to tough
sanctions. The pipeline carries oil from
central Russia 4,000km west to Ukraine and
Belarus and runs close to the Belarus-Ukraine
border. Russia exports around 5m bbl/day, of
which half are exported to Europe, including
via this pipeline.
Russian oil accounts for about a quarter of
Europe’s consumption, with the Druzhba pipeline
carrying close to 1m bbl/day. Should sanctions
be imposed and exports hindered, Europe will
need to secure alternative cargoes from the
global market.
Europe consumed most exports of Urals, Russia’s
biggest export grade, in 2021 after Saudi
Arabia boosted market share in China. Almost
10m tonnes of Urals went through Rotterdam in
the first half of last year, up 2m tonnes on
2020.
Germany stands most exposed because it gets 25%
of its oil from Russia.
CHEMICALS IMPACT
Gas and electricity are important components in
the production costs of many chemicals. Surging
gas and feedstock prices in Europe have caused
big hikes in contract and spot prices. Now
millions of tonnes of fertilizer and chemical
capacity are offline in Europe.
Click on the image to enlarge it
ICIS has also created an interactive timeline
which shows the history of the gas impact since
July 2021.
These products have been most badly affected by
outages in Europe, with more than half of
capacity offline or running at reduced rates in
some cases.
Analysis by the ICIS Margin Analytics team
shows the products which are most exposed to
energy and gas prices in Europe as a feedstock
or utility.
Europe is at a
competitive disadvantage to other regions and
some customers are seeking new sources of
lower-priced supply, especially from Asia and
the Middle East.
The conflict in Ukraine has pushed European gas
prices back up to record levels, forcing
exposed chemical producers to cease production,
or add further energy surcharges.
Rising oil prices since late 2021 have already
put chemical margins under pressure, and
volatility has continued into 2022. As oil and
naphtha prices soared, margins for ethylene
production based on naphtha went negative for
the first time ICIS record began. The are now
are swinging wildy in tandem with oil price
movements.
Chemical producers are struggling to pass on
increasing feedstock and energy costs in
Europe. Elevated oil and gas prices also dent
downstream consumer confidence and spending,
with recession a possibility later in 2022 or
2023.
What contingency plans are being put in
place?
Europe prepared for a difficult winter although
rising storage fullness levels, falling demand
and more import capacity for liquefied natural
gas (LNG) have helped it get by, assuming there
will not be an extensive cold spell.
As of 6 March, storage facilities across Europe
were 54% full compared with just 20% last
March.
Some 30bn cubic meters of new capacity were
added between September 2022 and March 2023.
The capacity includes offshore terminals in the
Netherlands, Germany and Estonia/Finland.
Demand has been decreasing by more than 20% in
the industrial sector in north-west European
countries and by 20-30% for households in
Germany, according to official data.
Nevertheless, there is a possibility that
Russia may completely stop its gas supplies to
Europe via the last two remaining routes –
Ukraine and Turkey, which could lop off some 70
cubic meters of Russian gas entering Europe
daily.
In such a scenario, the most affected countries
would be those in eastern and central Europe,
which are landlocked and have been struggling
to secure regasified LNG from importing
countries.
For oil markets, in case of an attack but no
international sanctions, the worst-case
scenario would be for approximately 240,000
bbl/day of lost Russian exports via Ukraine.
There are other seaborne routes, including the
Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Gas rationing – impact on Europe
petrochemicals, fertilizers
Embattled European fertilizer and petrochemical
producers may be the first in line to cut gas
consumption if the region experiences a cold
snap in the weather.
Russia, Europe’s largest gas supplier, has been
limiting exports to less than a quarter of its
deliveries two years ago and may stop them
altogether amid its political stand-off with
the EU.
Policymakers recommend voluntary reductions but
say these would become mandatory in case of a
supply emergency jeopardising the bloc’s
security.
DEMAND REDUCTION
The EU’s largest consumers include households,
accounting for 37% of total demand, electricity
and heat generation covering around 30% and
industrial consumption accounting for another
30%.
Record high gas prices and an ongoing gas
supply crunch over the least year had forced
consumers to limit or stop production or seek
import substitution globally. The mild winter
has alleviated this situation.
FERTILIZERS
The fertilizer sector, one of the most
gas-intensive industries, has also been one of
the most affected so far as gas can account for
up to 80% of production costs. Production has
been cut back drastically because it is no
longer economic.
PETROCHEMICALS
On the petrochemicals side, there are now deep
production cuts for products such as methyl
methacrylate (MMA) and melamine which are
heavily exposed to natural gas for utilities or
as a feedstock.
Producers are making detailed plans for
rationing, particularly in Germany, where the
chemicals and pharmaceuticals industry uses
about 140 TWh per year, or about 15 percent of
Germany’s gas consumption.
Gas is mainly used by petrochemicals to
generate energy such as electricity and steam
as well as to fire furnaces for production
complexes such as crackers.
Sites are able to lower operating rates
significantly, but they may be forced to close
if gas supplies drop so much that production
becomes uneconomic or difficult from a
technical perspective.
Companies with flexibility are switching from
natural gas to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or
other sources of energy.
Ukraine conflict threatens Europe oil
supply, chemicals production
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sanctions
could cut supplies of crude oil through the
Druzhba pipeline, threatening oil refinery
operations and chemicals production at
installations in Hungary, Slovakia, Czech
Republic, Poland and the former East Germany.
Russian oil supplies up to a quarter of
Europe’s crude imports, with refineries in
central and eastern Europe, which are attached
to the Druzhba pipeline, particularly reliant
on these supplies. Any interruption to these
supplies could force refineries to reduce
operating rates unless they can find
alternative supplies.
Analysis of the ICIS Supply & Demand
database shows that the countries Druzhba runs
through, except for Germany, are reliant on
Russian crude oil for more than half of their
imports, led by Slovakia which obtained 96% of
its supplies from Russia in 2021.
Chemical production downstream of refineries in
these countries could be impacted by any
reduction in operating rates. The ICIS data
forecast that for 2022, 2.79m tonnes of
ethylene (11% of total European capacity) and
2.34m tonnes of propylene (12% of total
European capacity) are reliant on refineries
located along the Druzhba pipeline. While some
alternative sources of crude oil could be
sourced, it is unlikely normal levels of
operations could be maintained.
Michael Connolly, ICIS Principal Analyst
Refining said: “Although many have built
alternate sources, keeping full operating rates
would be difficult for them as they rely on a
consistent and reliable source of crude. Most
refiners in Europe are aware of the risk of
Russian crude and over the past 5-10 years have
tried to reduce their dependence, or at least
to build some capability to have an alternate
supply – it doesn’t mean they would be
unaffected, but there should be a little bit of
resilience, depending on the site.”
Connolly explained that some land-locked
refineries along the Druzhba pipeline have
built pipelines to the coast, allowing
alternative sources of crude oil to be sourced.
However, these pipelines may not have capacity
to feed the whole refinery.
A spokesperson for Grupa LOTOS said: “The LOTOS
refinery has dealt with suspended supplies by
land before. Due to the contamination of
Russian oil with chlorines, PERN, the
state-owned operator of transmission and
storage infrastructure, had to completely
discontinue the transmission of crude oil from
the eastern direction between 24 April and 9
June 2019.”
He added that scheduling of oil supplies by sea
helped to secure volumes sufficient to maintain
an unchanged level of throughput and maximise
fuel production.
UKRAINE CHEMICALS UNDER THREAT
With Russian forces present in Ukraine,
chemical and fertilizer facilities may be
threatened by physical damage, interrupted
power and gas supplies or logistics disruption.
Kalush cracker closed
Karpatnaftohkhim’s cracker at Kalush has been
closed down because of the imposition of
martial law in Ukraine. It has capacity
(tonnes/year) of 250,000 (ethylene); 117,000
(propylene) 110,000 (LLDPE), 300,000 (PVC),
100,000 (benzene).
Black Sea export hub
closed
Ammonia market players have scrambled to cover
positions and assess options as the Russian
invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key
export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate
effect.
Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti
confirmed the suspension of the transit of
ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to
ensure the safety of people living in the
vicinity of the lengthy conduit.
The Samara Oblast-based giant also confirmed
the shut down of four of its seven ammonia
units, with the other three plants operating at
reduced rates.
Russia
export disruptions to shift global trade flows,
future capacities threatened
Disruptions to Russia’s chemicals and polymers
exports will
change trade flows, particularly to Europe
and Asia, as international sanctions, lack of
logistics and even “self-sanctions” limit
volumes.
While Russia’s capacities are relatively small
on a global scale, they can still have a
significant impact on regional markets if these
exports are disrupted.
Key Russia exports include methanol,
polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), styrene
and paraxylene (PX).
Russia has increased exports of high density
polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) in
particular in 2020 and 2021 as new capacity
started up from SIBUR’s ZapSibNeftekhim complex
in Tobolsk in 2020.
LATEST HEADLINES
Hungary unlikely to reach EU
intermediate gas storage
targets
By Irina Breilean 29-Mar-23 12:53 LONDON
(ICIS)–Hungary may not reach the next EU
intermediate storage fullness target on 1 May,
ICIS analysis indicates. EU intermediate
targets have been in place since November 2022,
in preparation for the start of the 2023 gas
winter. The targets apply to all member states
with underground gas storage sites on their
territories and directly interconnected to
their market areas. Intermediate targets are in
force for 1 February, 1 May, 1 July, and 1
September, two months ahead of the beginning of
the gas year. ICIS data shows storage sites
across Hungary were 33.2% full on 27 March, a
26.2 percentage point increase compared to last
year. However, this still stands 3.8 percentage
points short of the upcoming May target of 37%.
Joint gas purchasing uptake may be slow
as buyers locked into
contracts
By Gretchen Ransow 28-Mar-23 23:20 LONDON
(ICIS)–Uptake of the EU’s joint purchasing
model may be limited in its first year, as
companies were already locked into contracts
due to “huge panic” about prices in 2022,
European Commission vice-president Maros
Sefcovic told the European Parliament’s
Committee on Industry, Research and Energy
(ITRE) on 28 March. However, if the platform
does prove successful the EU wants to extend
the model beyond gas to other strategic
commodities such as hydrogen, critical raw
materials or technologies linked to the energy
transition. Sefcovic told ITRE on 28 March that
there was still much work to do but joint gas
purchasing would give valuable experience for
the future.
Ukraine’s new policy proposals to
‘revolutionise’ energy
sector
By Aura Sabadus 28-Mar-23 00:22 LONDON
(ICIS)–Ukraine is preparing a raft of
wide-ranging regulations that could pave the
way for the complete overhaul of its energy
sector. The step is a priority for the
mid-term, a senior Kyiv-based lawyer told ICIS.
Maksym Sysoiev, partner at global law firm
Dentons, said the reconstruction of the energy
sector is deemed a priority for Ukraine and
added that if all regulations that are now
under discussion are implemented, they would
trigger a “revolution” in the energy sector.
Russia to extend export restrictions on
fertilizers until November
By Deepika Thapliyal 27-Mar-23 22:39 LONDON
(ICIS)–Russia is planning to extend
restrictions on fertilizer exports until
November to guarantee availability in the
domestic market, according to the country’s
agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev. Current
restrictions on exports are valid until
end-May. To curb inflation and to ensure that
there was a reliable supply of fertilizers to
its farmers, the government imposed export
quotas in December 2021. The restrictions have
continued since the war with Ukraine broke out
in February 2022, although they have not had a
significant impact on the availability of
Russian fertilizer exports – apart from
nitrates.
Asia
petrochemicals demand tepid on macroeconomy,
oversupply concerns
By Nurluqman Suratman 24-Mar-23 14:16
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets
continue to face tepid demand as economic
recovery in regional bellwether China remains
slower than initially expected, with new
production capacities adding to oversupply
concerns.
European acrylates
subdued with underwhelming
demand
By Mathew Jolin-Beech 24-Mar-23 01:26
LONDON (ICIS)–The European acrylates markets
are all currently subdued with demand described
as “soft.”
CDI
Economic Summary: US regional banking crisis
lowers odds of soft landing
By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 22:21 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–The failure of two sizeable banks
(Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank) in the
US and the crisis of confidence contagion
spreading to other regional banks and now
European financial institutions threatens to
significantly tighten lending conditions at the
very least, further slowing economic growth and
potentially tipping US and European economies
into recession.
Asia
PMDI import markets bearish on poor downstream
demand
By Shannen Ng 23-Mar-23 15:12 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian import markets for polymeric
methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) were
dominated by largely bearish sentiment in the
week ended 22 March.
PODCAST: Asia, Mideast PS
demand tepid on competitive imports, feedstock
volatility
By Damini Dabholkar 23-Mar-23 11:14
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian and Middle Eastern
polystyrene (PS) markets are seeing slow demand
with regional supply remaining relatively
unchanged.
INSIGHT: US Fed
undeterred from 2% inflation goal means more
tough times ahead for
chemicals
By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 05:34 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–Even amid a regional banking crisis,
the US Federal Reserve remains undeterred in
its goal of bringing inflation down to its 2%
target. This was evidenced by another 0.25
percentage point rate hike and will mean
weakening economic conditions, a lower chance
of a soft landing and a more challenging demand
environment for chemicals going forward.
Phenol energy surcharges
will start to disappear on lower TTF, but no
demand improvement seen
By Jane Gibson 23-Mar-23 00:57 LONDON
(ICIS)–Falling upstream gas prices may offer
chemical sellers and buyers some relief but the
impact on demand levels has yet to be
significant.
PODCAST: Plunging
shipping rates point to normalising global
logistics, Europe under
pressure
By Will Beacham 22-Mar-23 22:58 BARCELONA
(ICIS)–Steep falls in container shipping rates
indicate that the pandemic-induced logistics
crisis may be drawing to a close, but this now
makes Europe more vulnerable to a flood of
cheap imports from Asia.
US
R-PET buying sentiment weakens in wake of
banking crisis
By Arianne Perez 22-Mar-23 20:11 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian exporters of recycled
polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) cargoes are
expected to continue to see cautious buying
from converters in the US following the banking
crisis.
INSIGHT: New PE/PP
capacities risk derailing nascent Asia
polyolefin recovery
By Izham Ahmad 22-Mar-23 17:28 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–A wave of new polyethylene (PE) and
polypropylene (PP) supply in Asia is
threatening to upend the tentative demand
recovery the region has been experiencing since
the end of the Lunar New Year holidays as new
suppliers fight to establish market share in an
increasingly crowded market.
Asia
polyamide 6,6 Q2 mood darkened by fiscal year
closing, demand outlook
By Josh Quah 22-Mar-23 13:12 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s nylon polyamide 6,6 (PA66)
markets remain weak, ahead of turnarounds
coming up for some producers in northeast Asia.
China
PP prices fall to nearly three-year low amid
increasing supply, lower-than-expected
demand
By Lucy Shuai 22-Mar-23 12:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China polypropylene (PP) prices fell to
a nearly three-year-low amid increasing supply
and lower-than-expected demand, and the market
may remain under pressure in Q2.
Asia
naphtha swings to multi-month lows on volatile
crude
By Melanie Wee 21-Mar-23 13:42 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha markets can expect
heightened volatility, largely tracking crude
oil futures movement, as demand prospects are
being weighed down by market jitters over the
health of the global banking system.
PODCAST: Subdued spot
trading activity in Europe’s oxo-alcohols and
derivatives markets
By Marion Boakye 21-Mar-23 03:35 LONDON
(ICIS)–Throughout March – the oxo-alcohols and
derivative markets in Europe have experienced
weak spot demand, ample supply, and thin import
opportunities.
INSIGHT: Constrained
consumer budgets limit demand for major
chemicals consuming sectors
By Nigel Davis 21-Mar-23 00:49 LONDON
(ICIS)–This is by no means an easy time for
chemical producers as the industry’s major
downstream markets continue to be influenced by
the impact on demand of rising costs and higher
interest rates.
Europe’s chemical sector
shrinks – battered by high costs, poor demand
and cheaper imports
By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 23:10 BARCELONA
(ICIS)–Collapsing Q4 profits and losses for
European chemical majors, together with low
expectations for 2023, show just how badly the
sector is still suffering.
Europe markets firm after
emergency UBS Credit Suisse
purchase
By Tom Brown 20-Mar-23 20:15 LONDON
(ICIS)–European markets firmed on Monday after
Switzerland-based banking group UBS announced
plans to acquire embattled rival Credit Suisse,
raising market hopes that banking sector
contagion may be limited.
Global weekly spot IPEX
down on price declines across
regions
By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 19:11 LONDON
(ICIS)–The global weekly spot ICIS
Petrochemical Index (IPEX) fell by 2.0% week on
week on the back of lower index values across
regions.
PODCAST: Asian PP markets
grapple with increased supply,
lower-than-expected demand in
2023
By Damini Dabholkar 20-Mar-23 19:06
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian polypropylene (PP)
markets are being challenged by increasing
capacity in 2023, especially in the China
market, while demand continues to recover more
slowly than expected.
Crude
dips to lowest since December 2021 on banking
sector turmoil
By James Dennis 20-Mar-23 17:52 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Crude prices declined on Monday to
their lowest levels since December 2021 before
recovering on growing financial concerns
following equity market losses and instability
in the banking sector in Asian trading.
Asia
petrochemical shares, oil prices weaken after
UBS rescue of Credit Suisse
By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Mar-23 12:43
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical
companies in Asia were mostly weaker and crude
futures fell on Monday on fears of
a banking
crisis contagion, as troubled Credit
Suisse was rescued by its Swiss rival UBS in a
government-backed deal.
INSIGHT: European TiO2
operations at risk, but China may not be the
answer
By Heidi Finch 17-Mar-23 17:53 LONDON
(ICIS)–While energy costs in Europe are more
relaxed compared with 2022 peaks, the
TiO2 marketand the wider chemical industry in
Europe are still facing residual economic and
demand headwinds. European production is at
risk, while China/Asia capacity is increasing.
Asia
glycerine demand weighed down by caution after
US bank collapse and turmoil
By Helen Yan 17-Mar-23 11:48 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s glycerine spot demand has been
weighed down by prevailing caution following
the collapse of two mid-sized banks in the US
and plunging bank stocks in Europe.
INSIGHT: Banking
contagion threatens to spread, hit chemicals
demand hard
By Joseph Chang 17-Mar-23 05:47 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–The failure of two sizeable banks
(Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank) in the US
and the crisis of confidence contagion
spreading to other US regional banks and now
European financial institutions threatens to
significantly tighten lending conditions at the
very least, further slowing economic growth and
potentially tipping the US and European
economies into recession.
Asia
naphtha tumbles on tepid demand; crude oil
losses
By Melanie Wee 16-Mar-23 12:56 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are under pressure
on the back of fragile demand, while taking
cues from global crude oil futures.
INSIGHT: Banking woes
rattle US chem shares
By Al Greenwood 16-Mar-23 05:03 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Shares of US-listed chemical companies
fell on Wednesday amid concerns about the
implications of a string of bank failures.
Topic Page by Aura Sabadus and
Will Beacham. Additional
reporting by Richard
Ewing and Sophie
Udubasceanu. Maps and graphs by
Yashas Mudumbai.
31-Mar-2023
LONDON ICIS (ICIS)–The soda ash market is
potentially at another tipping point as supply
is headed for dramatic changes this year, with
sizable production coming back to the market
and new capacity about to deploy in Q2
after a near two-year spell of shortage.
Demand remains an unknown, however, with
potential for stronger consumption from
container glass, solar photovoltaic, electric
vehicles and bicarbonate sectors. Demand from
the from the all-important flat glass
applications servicing the construction and
auto industries has softened and is likely to
remain slower.
ICIS editors Helen Lee for Asia, Bill Bowen for
the US and Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela for
Europe have plenty to discuss in their first
global soda ash podcast, as they give a brief
overview of the elements which have shaped
today’s market as well as presenting what
factors will weigh on fundamentals and pricing
in the coming months.
31-Mar-2023
Asia’s petrochemical markets continue to face
tepid demand as economic recovery in regional
bellwether China remains slower than initially
expected following its reopening from the
pandemic, with new production capacities adding
to oversupply concerns.
While China is on a recovery path after three
years of intermittent COVID-related lockdowns,
oil demand from the world’s second-biggest
economy has so far fallen short of
expectations.
Nonetheless, China’s oil demand in 2023 is
expected to post a strong growth from 2022. The
country will account for more than 47% of the
projected 2023 global oil demand growth of
around 2m bbl/day, according to the
International Energy Agency (IEA).
With the last wave of new capacity additions
and easing of logistics constraints, the US
petrochemical sector has a clear path to
boosting exports to new records in 2023.
Even with a recessionary global economic
outlook dampening demand overseas and capacity
surging in China, the US cost advantage is
simply too great to hold back the floodgates.
However, US petrochemical exports will run into
a big headwind from a surge of new projects
starting up in China.
China will be adding record-breaking chemical
and fertilizer capacity in 2023 of 137m
tonnes/year, dwarfing the previous record of
around 93m tonnes/year in 2014 and driving
global oversupply, according to an ICIS
analysis.
Updated on 31 March 2023
On this topic page we analyse the
impact of coronavirus and oil price dynamics on
chemical markets and bring together the latest
news reported by ICIS.
Scroll down to see the
latest interactive graphics, podcasts and
videos.
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here to register for regular updates to
help you navigate these challenging
times.
LATEST HEADLINES (Last updated
at 05:00 GMT on 31 March 2023)
SE Asian NBR dented by slower buying, demand
outlook murky
By Ai Teng Lim 30-Mar-23 15:35 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Spot discussions in southeast Asia for
acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) are under
pressure from waning buying interest, and trade
liquidity may stay curbed in the near term if
buyers and sellers remain divided in their
pricing outlook.
AFPM ’23: US construction season may be late,
slow – Huntsman
By Al Greenwood 29-Mar-23 04:11 SAN ANTONIO
(ICIS)–Early signs in the US are pointing to a
residential construction season that will be
later and slower than typical, the CEO of
Huntsman said on Tuesday.
Asia fatty acids market to remain flat in near
term on uncertainties
By Helen Yan 28-Mar-23 15:59 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s fatty acid demand is expected to
remain flat in the near term as buyers retreat
from the market and adopt a cautious stance,
given the uncertainties and weak macro-economic
conditions.
INSIGHT: US recycled plastics industry
continues to navigate changes in global trade
according to latest
statistics
By Emily Friedman 28-Mar-23 01:41 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Though competitive recycled resin
imports continue to pressure the domestic US
recycled plastics market as freight rates
improve, Q4 and full-year 2022 US import and
export data of plastic scrap show a setback in
overall import volume despite the recent trend.
AFPM ’23: With supply chain constraints largely
over, freight costs expected to trend
lower
By Adam Yanelli 26-Mar-23 23:19 SAN ANTONIO
(ICIS)–Participants in the US chemicals
industry have been coping with high costs for
transporting products over the past two years
because of persistent supply chain constraints
brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
AFPM ’23 – INSIGHT: US petchem exports
poised to hit record on capacity, logistics and
cost advantage
By Joseph Chang 25-Mar-23 03:33 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–With the last wave of new capacity
additions and easing of logistics constraints,
the US petrochemical sector has a clear path to
boosting exports to new records in 2023,
heading into this year’s International
Petrochemical Conference (IPC).
Southeast Asia PP market braces for a
tough Q2
By Jackie Wong 18-Mar-23 00:35 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–With demand on a considerable slowdown
since the end of the Lunar New Year holiday in
early February, the polypropylene (PP) market
in southeast Asia is now bracing itself for an
even tougher Q2 as different elements come
together, threatening to create a perfect
storm.
Intra-Asia chemical tanker demand
hampered by aromatics plant
turnarounds
By Hwee Hwee Tan 21-Mar-23 17:16 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Aromatics plant turnarounds in Asia and
cargo diversions to the US gasoline blending
sector are expected to continue to curtail
intra-regional shipping demand into the second
quarter.
China PP prices fall to nearly
three-year low amid increasing supply,
lower-than-expected demand
By Lucy Shuai 22-Mar-23 12:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China polypropylene (PP) prices fell to
a nearly three-year-low amid increasing supply
and lower-than-expected demand, and the market
may remain under pressure in Q2.
Asia petrochemicals demand tepid on
macroeconomy, oversupply
concerns
By Nurluqman Suratman 24-Mar-23 14:16 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets continue
to face tepid demand as economic recovery in
regional bellwether China remains slower than
initially expected, with new production
capacities adding to oversupply concerns.
Recessionary conditions to define H1,
Q1 destocking still ‘palpable’ – LANXESS
CEO
By Tom Brown 15-Mar-23 21:15 COLOGNE
(ICIS)–2023 will be a difficult for the
chemicals sector, with market conditions likely
to remain bleak through the end of the second
quarter, the CEO of LANXESS Matthias Zachert
said on Wednesday. Zachert also said the
destocking trend that emerged in the closing
months of 2022 continues to be felt. The impact
of weaker demand in a high-cost, low-growth
environment is likely to weigh on chemicals
players globally through the first six months
of 2023, with destocking continuing and
customers hesitant about making substantial new
commitments, according to Zachert.
INSIGHT: China growth ambitions deliver
a reality check while financial risk
multiplies
By Nigel Davis 14-Mar-23 23:33 LONDON
(ICIS)–Petrochemicals production turned up in
January following months of decline, as demand
started to improve and prospects for growth
brightened. But the take-off, from a miserable
few months at the end of 2022, was slower than
some hoped for – as evidenced by capacity
utilisation. Subsequently, the brightness seen
by some around the Lunar New Year holiday in
China in February has dimmed and China’s
government has delivered a dose of reality.
ICIS data focus on basic chemicals and
synthetic materials (that is, resins,
elastomers and fibres), so the core
petrochemical industry building blocks and the
major polymers. In January, production of those
materials rose 0.9% globally, to 280.9m tonnes.
As ICIS chief economist, Kevin Swift, notes,
this follows a 0.1% decline in December, a 1.9%
decline in November “and generally declining
activity since March”. The sector is by no
means in a good place. Overall, production
volumes were down 5.2% year on year in January
with gains largely centred on North America,
Central & South America, Europe and the
Middle East. Production in northeast Asia was
weak. Capacity utilisation improved in January
by 0.4 percentage points to 66.2% which was
encouraging but this rate compared with a much
more robust 71.7% in January 2022.
INSIGHT: US petchem exports to hit
record on capacity surge, easing of logistics
constraints
By Joseph Chang 14-Mar-23 01:00 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–With the last wave of new capacity
additions and easing of logistics constraints,
the US petrochemical sector has a clear path to
boosting exports to new records in 2023. Even
with a recessionary global economic outlook
dampening demand overseas and capacity surging
in China, the US cost advantage is simply too
great to hold back the floodgates. US
petrochemical exports will run into a big
headwind from a surge of new projects starting
up in China. China will be adding
record-breaking chemical and fertilizer
capacity in 2023 of 137m tonnes/year, dwarfing
the previous record of around 93m tonnes/year
in 2014 and driving global oversupply,
according to an ICIS analysis.
S Korea Q4 ’22 GDP contracts on
quarter; full-year ’23 growth to slow on weak
exports
By Pearl Bantillo 07-Mar-23 13:50 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–South Korea’s economic output shrank by
0.4% in the October-December 2022 from the
previous quarter, unchanged from advance
estimates, as manufacturing and exports
contracted amid a global economic slowdown. For
the whole of 2022, manufacturing growth
decelerated to 1.4% from 6.9% in the previous
year, while export of goods posted a much
slower growth of 3.4% from 10.5% in 2021. For
2023, full-year growth is projected to slow
down to 1.6% amid high inflation and interest
rates. “Growth will fall even further below its
pre-pandemic average this year on a tougher
base effect, high energy prices and higher
interest rates. However, eased Covid-19
restrictions will provide some support,” said
Matthew Cunningham, economist at Spain-based
FocusEconomics had stated in a recent note.
China sets conservative 5.0% GDP growth
target; petrochemical markets
cautious
By Fanny Zhang 06-Mar-23 14:33 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China has set its 2023 economic growth
goal at around 5%, a conservative number
underscoring an overall cautious outlook that
sent crude prices falling on Monday after
recent strong gains, while Chinese
petrochemical futures markets largely mixed. At
the start of China’s National People’s Congress
(NPC) in Beijing on 5 March, Chinese Premiere
Li Keqiang announced the GDP growth target,
lower than the previous year’s target of around
5.5% although the figure represents an
acceleration from the actual 3.0% growth
recorded in 2022. China’s parliament will be in
session for 10 days to outline the country’s
broad goals and plans for 2023. Economists
deemed the GDP target realistic as the economy
recovers from severe COVID-19 impact over the
past three years.
INSIGHT: LatAm
petchems at mercy of global markets as China’s
reopening key for prices
By Jonathan Lopez 04-Mar-23 00:26 SAO PAULO
(ICIS)–Latin American petrochemicals companies
are dependent on a recovery in global prices to
post healthier spreads in 2023 as all eyes are
now on China’s economy reopening. Although
Latin American petrochemicals producers and
distributors concentrate on domestic consumers,
China and other foreign markets are important
for the region because they influence margins
and stimulate demand for commodity exports.
INSIGHT: Optimism on China recovery as
manufacturing PMI leaps into
expansion
By Joseph Chang 02-Mar-23 07:00 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–The long-awaited China recovery may
finally be at hand, as a key leading indicator
of manufacturing activity surged higher.
Asia fatty alcohols to see improved sentiment
following China Feb PMI data
By Helen Yan 02-Mar-23 14:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohols and other
oleochemical markets are likely to see an
improvement in sentiment and demand, following
the latest February data showing factory
activity rising significantly in China.
INSIGHT: European chemical producers see demand
weakness persist but look to H2
2023
By Nigel Davis 28-Feb-23 23:51 LONDON (ICIS)–A
slower than hoped for re-start in China but a
turn up in key indicators in the US colour the
macroeconomic outlook and the driving forces
behind industrial production demand for
chemicals.
INSIGHT: East China toluene xylene price gap
fluctuates amid shifting market
dynamics
By Veronica Zhang 28-Feb-23 19:39 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The East China toluene-xylene price gap
has fluctuated widely in 2022 and early 2023
amid a shift in supply-demand fundamentals as
export demand grew and domestic consumption
remained more subdued.
China phenol, acetone industry out of the red;
uncertainties loom in March
By Yoyo Liu 27-Feb-23 15:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s phenol and acetone industry has
emerged from the red on increased prices after
the Lunar New Year holiday on 21-27 January.
INSIGHT: China imports of Russia oil to rise
further in 2023 on cheap
prices
By Fanny Zhang 27-Feb-23 21:59 SINGPORE
(ICIS)–China is expected to boost imports of
Russia oil further in 2023 to take advantage of
price discounts, with a significant increase
likely in volumes flowing to independent
refineries in Shandong.
INSIGHT: Northeast Asia plasticizers exports to
drive intense competition
globally
By Nicole Simpson 27-Feb-23 21:40 LONDON
(ICIS)–Northeast Asian plasticizers exports
are expected to continue to drive strong
competition between sellers globally as China
import interest remains low.
INSIGHT: Weak consumer confidence weighs on
China recovery
post-reopening
By Pearl Bantillo 22-Feb-23 23:54 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s prospects turned brighter after
it abandoned its zero-COVID policy, but two of
its major growth engines – exports and the
property sector – may struggle to perform amid
a general weakness in consumer confidence. The
possibility of the world plunging into
recession still cannot be ruled out.
Bank of Korea pauses interest rate hikes,
lowers economic growth
forecast
By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Feb-23 10:53 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–South Korea’s central bank on Thursday
kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% and
lowered its economic growth forecast for 2023
amid slowing domestic consumption and exports.
Asia Group II base oils supply to dip slightly
on China demand pick-up
By Matthew Chong 23-Feb-23 12:31 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s Group II base oils spot supply
is expected to be slightly reduced in the
coming months, after being in relative
abundance since late 2022.
INSIGHT: China bounce a bust
By Joseph Chang 17-Feb-23 04:09 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–Hopes for a quick rebound in China’s
economy and demand for chemicals and plastics
after the Lunar New Year and zero-COVID in the
rearview mirror have been dashed thus far.
While it is still early days and there are some
signs of recovery, disappointment reigns for
now.
INSIGHT: China’s reopening having a gradual,
positive impact on PE demand
By Amy Yu 17-Feb-23 00:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Polyethylene (PE) markets in Asia are
expected to recover more strongly in 2023 but
the magnitude of growth may depend on the speed
of demand recovery in China. Currently, demand
in February is not stronger than expected.
INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical prices to rise but
margins under pressure in February – ICIS
analysts
By Ann Sun 15-Feb-23 20:49 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Higher prices in most value chains are
expected in the Asia petrochemical market in
February in view of balanced-to-tight
fundamentals driven by subdued supply and
restocking activities. However, companies are
still struggling with negative margins.
Global oil supply to exceed demand in H1 2023 –
IEA
By Tom Brown 15-Feb-23 19:54 LONDON
(ICIS)–Global oil supply is expected to exceed
demand for the first half of 2023, but the
balance could quickly snap the other way later
in the year as demand recovers and some Russian
output and is shut out of parts of the world,
the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Thai domestic PET average prices rise on
increased buying pressure
By Zachary Tia 14-Feb-23 22:16 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The average price for Thailand domestic
spot bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate
(PET) cargoes firmed on the back of higher
buying pressure in the week ended 10 February.
China disappoints hopes of swift PP demand
lift, global markets eye exports
closely
By Vicky Ellis 14-Feb-23 20:47 LONDON (ICIS)–A
raft of offers of Chinese polypropylene (PP)
into other regions, and signs that demand is
not pinging back quickly, are denting hopes
that a fast Chinese recovery will pull up
global markets.
Thai PTTGC expects demand recovery in 2023 on
China reopening
By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-23 14:39 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Thai petrochemical major PTT Global
Chemicals expects demand for its aromatics and
polymers products to improve this year
following China’s reopening.
Singapore Q4 economy expands by 2.1%, full-year
2022 GDP growth at 3.6%
By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Feb-23 11:22 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Singapore’s economy grew by 2.1% year
on year in the fourth quarter, moderating from
the 4.0% expansion in the previous quarter,
amid a slowdown in the manufacturing sector,
official data showed on Monday.
INSIGHT: Petrochemicals beginning to expand
again but margins challenged
By Nigel Davis 07-Feb-23 00:25 LONDON
(ICIS)–Signs of a tentative upturn for the
major petrochemicals and polymers are welcome
although it is clear that profitability is
likely to remain under pressure in the first
half. For the big polyolefins, polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), additional supply
creates a headache that will persist for some
time.
Thailand R-PET feedstock supply rises on
recovering tourism
By Arianne Perez 07-Feb-23 12:46 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Spot availability of post-consumer bale
feedstock in Thailand has been increasing for
weeks now due to more tourists coming back to
the country.
China January petrochemical markets rebound;
near-term outlook mixed
By Yvonne Shi 08-Feb-23 13:54 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets posted
strong gains in holiday-shortened January,
largely in anticipation of strong demand post
Lunar New Year as both production and
consumption picked up after the country
abandoned its zero-COVID policy.
NE Asia C2 up in supply-led recovery; China
downstream demand still slow
By Yeow Pei Lin 10-Feb-23 11:43 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene (C2)
prices advanced as supply decreased on cracker
turnarounds and reduced inflows from other
regions.
Asian EPDM stays soft, eyes on Q2 China
recovery
By Ai Teng Lim 08-Feb-23 11:51 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Discussions are limited this week in
Asia’s spot market for ethylene propylene diene
monomer (EPDM) imports, as sluggish buying
persisted.
Lower demand drives down slack wax prices in
the US
By Daniel Lopes 09-Feb-23 07:00 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US slack wax prices are falling based
on lacklustre demand and ample supply in Q1. A
market participant said sales in January were
particularly low when compared to the same
period last year, and this is due to continued
high inflation and economic uncertainties,
which have changed consumption habits.
Asia naphtha buoyed by crude oil; thin demand
limits gains
By Melanie Wee 08-Feb-23 17:03 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are being propped
up by gains in global crude oil futures
although a lack of robust demand is keeping a
lid on the upward pressure.
Asia BDO extends post-Lunar New Year gains amid
snug availability
By Clive Ong 03-Feb-23 11:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s butanediol (BDO) market extended
gains after the Lunar New Year holidays, while
snug availability and renewed demand in the
region fuelled talk of further potential
strength in the market.
Asia soda ash market firms on limited supply,
robust China demand
By Helen Lee 02-Feb-23 15:52 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s soda ash market has firmed on
the back of limited export volumes from China,
where domestic demand strengthened after the
Lunar New Year holidays.
China post-holiday demand key indicator for
oleochemical trade flows
By Lucas Hall 02-Feb-23 02:48 ORLANDO
(ICIS)–Chinese demand following the end of
Lunar New Year will be the key indicator in
determining oleochemical trade flows in 1H
2023, according to sources on the sidelines of
the American Cleaning Institute (ACI) annual
meeting and industry convention.
US styrene market stabilises after plants
return to production
By John Donnelly 31-Jan-23 22:55 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–After several plant outages that
boosted spot prices, the US styrene market has
stabilised with units back in operation
although running at reduced rates. Soft demand
and rising feedstock costs promise to pressure
margins through Q1.
China official Jan manufacturing PMI swings to
expansion mode at 50.1
By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 12:33 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing
purchasing managers index (PMI) crossed to
expansionary territory in January at 50.1, from
a 34-month low of 47.0 in the previous month as
the country relaxed its zero-COVID policy,
official data showed on Tuesday.
China 2023 GDP growth forecast revised up to
5.2% as activity recovers –
IMF
By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 11:58 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s GDP growth is projected to
rebound to 5.2% in 2023 from 3.0% last year as
a sudden lifting of most its pandemic-related
restrictions paved the way for a rapid rebound
in economic activity, according to the World
Economic Outlook (WEO) Update of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on
Tuesday.
Developing Asia economic growth forecast raised
to 5.3% – IMF
By Nurluqman Suratman 31-Jan-23 11:48 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Economic growth in emerging and
developing Asian economies is expected to rise
in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3% and 5.2%,
respectively, after the deeper-than-expected
slowdown in 2022, the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.
Dow expects Chinese stimulus, reopening
to boost demand
By Al Greenwood 27-Jan-23 03:37 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Dow is seeing signs that China’s
reopening from COVID-19 lockdowns is
progressing, and that should increase demand
for its products, along with government
stimulus, the CEO said on Thursday. “We’re
seeing China opening up. We’re not seeing
issues with people coming to work,” said Jim
Fitterling, CEO. He made his comments during an
earnings conference call. Other CEOs have also
remarked that employees are returning to work,
according to Fitterling. Right now, Dow is not
seeing any COVID-19 outbreaks that China cannot
manage, he said.
Asia naphtha market sentiment mixed;
eyes on China’s recovery
By Melanie Wee 26-Jan-23 12:18 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are being kept
afloat by hopes of recovering China
petrochemical demand, although diminishing
downstream margins are keeping demand cautious.
Spot naphtha CFR (cost and freight) Japan
indicative prices averaged at $715.50/tonne for
first-half March delivery at midday session on
Thursday, holding on to the previous day’s Asia
close. Prices have climbed by some 10% compared
with month-earlier levels, fluctuating with
volatile crude oil futures, ICIS data shows.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil prices steady as
market awaits OPEC+ panel
meeting
By Eloise Radley 26-Jan-23 04:27 LONDON (ICIS)
– Crude prices remained relatively steady on
Wednesday, staying within $1/bbl of Tuesday’s
settlement price. Hopes of increased demand in
China balanced builds in US crude and gasoline
stocks.Weekly data from the US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) showed that US
crude stocks saw a marginal build of 0.53m bbl
last week. Despite this build, the rise was
over six times smaller than the anticipated
3.4m bbl. This applied slight upwards pressure
to prices in afternoon trading. However,
gasoline stock increased by 1.76m bbl, over
double the expected 0.62m bbl. US distillate
stocks fell by 0.51m bbl, less than the
predicted 1.90m bbl drop.
Asia petrochemicals pin hopes on
China’s post-holiday demand
By Pearl Bantillo 25-Jan-23 14:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical players are
largely betting on strong revival of China’s
demand following lifting of most COVID-19
curbs, having built up stocks in the weeks
leading to the Lunar New Year holiday. At
midday, naphtha, as well as aromatics products
benzene and toluene, were trading higher on the
back of crude gains, which were being driven up
by optimism over China’s economic prospects
after the world’s second-biggest economy
abandoned its zero-COVID policy. China is on
holiday the whole week for the Lunar New Year
festivities. Most other countries in northeast
Asia and southeast Asia also observed the
holiday at the start of the week.
VIDEO: China chemicals
market review and outlook
By Chris Qi 20-Jan-23 11:26 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Watch ICIS China information director
Chris Qi review China chemical industry in 2022
and an outlook for the industry in 2023.
China
ethylene buyers’ price ideas edge up ahead of
holiday
By Yeow Pei Lin 20-Jan-23 11:14 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene prices
rebounded slightly in recent days, aided by
limited offers, improving prices for certain
derivatives in China and strong feedstock
naphtha costs.
European engineering
plastics demand stays sluggish in light of
persistent economic
uncertainty
By Yashas Mudumbai 20-Jan-23 00:34 LONDON
(ICIS)–The engineering plastics markets for
polyacetal (POM) and polybutylene terephthalate
(PBT) in Europe are continuing to see lower
than usual demand, as macroeconomic challenges
cause market players to be circumspect.
INSIGHT: Chems face rough
earnings season amid warnings, lower
margins
By Al Greenwood 20-Jan-23 00:04 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Chemical companies have kicked off the
earnings season by waring that they could miss
analysts’ estimates and struggle to keep up
with rising costs.
Malaysia central bank
maintains 2.75% key interest rate amid economic
headwinds
By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jan-23 18:49
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s central bank on
Thursday unexpectedly kept its key benchmark
interest rate unchanged amid expectations that
the country’s 2023 economic growth will
moderate this year amid a global slowdown.
Pakistani buyers struggle
to pay Asian R-PET, R-PE
cargoes
By Arianne Perez 19-Jan-23 18:10 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–As Pakistan struggles with a financial
crisis, importers of recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) and recycled polyethylene
(R-PE) have struggled to settle payments with
suppliers.
China
MDI markets see active restocking spurred on by
planned turnarounds
By Shannen Ng 19-Jan-23 12:37 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–News of two major methylene diphenyl
diisocyanate (MDI) producers in China planning
turnarounds for February spurred restocking
activity in the week ending 18 January, ahead
of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Oil
falls by more than $1/bbl on surprise build in
US crude inventories
By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jan-23 12:16
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell by more than
$1/bbl on Thursday after industry data showed a
surprise build in US crude inventories for the
second straight week, raising concerns of
faltering fuel demand.
Asia
BDO rebounds as buyers pin hopes on renewed
post-holiday demand
By Clive Ong 19-Jan-23 11:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market
surged this week as buying momentum for
February cargoes picked up on expectations of
firmer demand post-Lunar New Year.
US
economy poised to enter mild recession as
inflation has peaked – ICIS
economist
By Joseph Chang 19-Jan-23 05:30 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–The US economy is likely to enter a
relatively mild recession in 2023, the ICIS
chief economist said on Wednesday.
INSIGHT: Poor demand,
high costs stifle Europe industry despite
falling gas prices
By Aura Sabadus 18-Jan-23 22:56 LONDON
(ICIS)–Falling gas prices could reignite some
interest in European industrial output but a
combination of high operating costs and
sluggish demand, reminiscent of the 2008
financial crisis, is likely to slow recovery
this year, according to ICIS research.
European phenol struggles
with costs while acetone tightens, but demand
remains slow
By Jane Gibson 18-Jan-23 22:07 LONDON
(ICIS)–The recent fall in gas prices is good
news for the phenol and acetone chain. But this
alone is unlikely to prompt producers to
increase operating rates quite yet.
Japan’s Toyota targets
record ’23 car output of 10.6m units, with
caveat
By Pearl Bantillo 18-Jan-23 13:21
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global automotive giant
Toyota is targeting to produce 10.6m units in
2023, subject to a possible downward adjustment
of 10% if problems with supply of
semiconductors persist.
Bank
of Japan maintains low interest rates despite
rising inflation
By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Jan-23 12:49
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on
Wednesday maintained its ultra-low interest
rate policy despite rising inflation levels and
warned that risks to the country’s economic
outlook remain extremely high.
Asia
MEC underpinned by hopes of post-Lunar New Year
recovery
By Keven Zhang 18-Jan-23 11:32 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia methylene chloride (MEC) was
buoyed by spot demand in the last week before
the Lunar New Year.
Europe ECH demand muted
in Q1, could improve in Q2
By Heidi Finch 18-Jan-23 00:21 LONDON
(ICIS)–Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) demand is
likely to face a tough first quarter, as
macroeconomic headwinds and Asian competition
continue to weigh.
OUTLOOK ’23: Chemical
M&A stymied by rates, uncertainty but may
rebound in H2
By Joseph Chang 18-Jan-23 00:00 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–High interest rates, lack of available
financing and economic and earnings uncertainty
are holding back chemical industry mergers and
acquisitions (M&A). However, activity may
be poised to rebound in H2 2023 as the backlog
of undone deals builds up, a clearer earnings
picture emerges and especially if the financing
market improves.
INSIGHT: Asia
petrochemicals to rebound in January amid
demand recovery – ICIS
analysts
By Jenny Yi 17-Jan-23 21:45 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asia petrochemical market is
expected to rebound from January in view of
demand recovery in the coming months with
China’s abandonment of its strict zero-COVID
policy. The appreciation of Asia currencies
against the US dollar should also support the
outlook.
PODCAST: Europe PE, PP
analytical 2023 outlook
By Ben Lake 17-Jan-23 19:35 LONDON
(ICIS)–European polymer editors Vicky Ellis
and Ben Lake are joined by analysts Emiliano
Basualto and Lorenzo Meazza to discuss the year
ahead in what could be a transitional 12 months
for the polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene
(PP) markets.
NE
Asia polyester prices stable to firm;
post-holiday outlook
optimistic
By Judith Wang 17-Jan-23 16:30 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Spot polyester prices in northeast Asia
were stable to firm during the week, on the
back of stronger feedstock prices, while
overall buying has slowed ahead of the Lunar
New Year holiday.
China
2022 GDP growth slows to 3%; re-opening to
drive 2023 recovery
By Nurluqman Suratman 17-Jan-23 16:21
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economy grew by 3% in
2022, marking its slowest pace of expansion in
decades, highlighting the impact of the
country’s long-standing zero-COVID strategy.
India
December exports fall 12.2% amid global
economic slowdown
By Priya Jestin 17-Jan-23 14:21 MUMBAI
(ICIS)–India’s merchandise exports in December
declined by 12.2% year on year to $34.5bn, with
further weakness likely in 2023 amid the global
economic slowdown, with its major markets – the
US and Europe – possibly facing a recession.
BPA
prices in China, India at more than two-year
low; ample supply may linger
By Li Peng Seng 17-Jan-23 11:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Import prices of bisphenol A (BPA) in
China and India have slumped to their lowest
levels in more than two years, weighed down by
ample supply.
INSIGHT: Weak, sometimes
negative product margins challenged petchem
players in 2022
By Nigel Davis 16-Jan-23 23:54 LONDON
(ICIS)–As in the depths of the COVID-19
downturn, chemical producers, particularly
those based largely in northwest Europe, remain
focused on cash.
Global weekly spot IPEX
up on rising chemical prices across all
regions
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 16-Jan-23
18:57 LONDON (ICIS)–Spot chemical prices were
up 2.2% on the back of firmer values across all
regions, according to latest figures from the
weekly ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX).
Qatar’s $6bn Ras Laffan
project to boost Mideast PE exports, shift
trade flows
By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Jan-23 13:49
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Qatar’s $6bn joint venture
Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex is expected
to boost the Middle East’s polyethylene (PE)
exports and could result in a major shift to
global trade flows once it comes on stream,
according to ICIS analysts.
China
re-opening bodes well for SE Asia PE, but Lunar
New Year slowdowns ahead
By Izham Ahmad 16-Jan-23 11:53 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s surprise announcement of the
re-opening of its borders and the easing of
COVID-19 restrictions has injected renewed
vigour into the southeast Asian PE market, but
the impact could be short-lived as market
activity slows down for the typical Lunar New
Year holiday lull.
INSIGHT: A turbulent 2020s requires near-term
focus but clear, longer-term
strategies
By Nigel Davis 12-Jan-23 00:49 LONDON
(ICIS)–The World Economic Forum (WEF) talks of
a global risks landscape this year that “feels
both wholly new and eerily familiar” in its
Global Risks Report 2023.
INSIGHT: Downward pressure on petchem and
plastics prices persists
globally
By Nigel Davis 11-Jan-23 01:19 LONDON
(ICIS)–Falling base chemical and polymer
prices globally reflect the weaker and
uncertain demand environment while shifted
supply and demand balances have coloured spot
activity at the end of 2022 and the start of
2023 for a handful of chemical commodities.
The ICIS Petrochemical Index tracked down
further in December with the focus on the US
Gulf basket of prices: the 12 commodities and
polymers collated for the index.
China petrochemical players build stocks on
hopes of strong post-holiday
demand
By Fanny Zhang 12-Jan-23 11:20 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Players in China’s petrochemical
markets are actively building up stocks on
expectation of a strong recovery in post-Lunar
New Year demand.
East Asia, Pacific 2023 growth seen at 4.3% on
China rebound – World Bank
By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Jan-23 15:12 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Economies in the east Asia and Pacific
region in 2023 are expected to log an average
growth of 4.3%, accelerating from the estimated
3.2% pace in 2022 but lower than the previous
forecast of above 5% for the current year, the
World Bank said.
NE Asia ethylene falls on weak China demand,
ample supply
By Yeow Pei Lin 06-Jan-23 10:56 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene market
started 2023 on a soft note due to China’s
raging COVID-19 outbreak, which has exacerbated
the seasonal downstream demand lull ahead of
the Lunar New Year holiday.
China Dec petrochemical markets weak; better
post-Lunar New Year demand
eyed
By Yvonne Shi 05-Jan-23 14:14 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets stayed
depressed in December despite substantial
relaxation of pandemic-related lockdowns, as a
consequent spike in COVID-19 infections
continued to restrict logistics operations.
Any recovery in demand is unlikely until after
the week-long Lunar New Year holiday on 21-27
January.
OUTLOOK ’23: US PVC and vinyls chain face new
year of weakened demand
By Bill Bowen 05-Jan-23 04:00 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) enters 2023
with mixed outlook: nominations for price
increases for January and an economic outlook
that runs counter to those separately proposed
increases.
OUTLOOK ’23: China ACN, downstream capacities
to expand; oversupply challenges
prevail
By Candy Nie 06-Jan-23 12:12 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s acrylonitrile (ACN) market will
continue to see a slew of capacity expansions,
particularly in the first half of 2023.
Downstream demand is also expected to rise with
new downstream units coming online and some
COVID-19 restrictions gradually easing since
end-2022.
OUTLOOK ’23: Plant activity will tighten US
propylene balance even as economy undermines
demand
By John Donnelly 05-Jan-23 03:00 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Derivative demand for US propylene will
remain weak until at least Q3, but plant
maintenance and a new propylene oxide/tertiary
butyl alcohol (POTBA) plant will help support
the market in the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’23: Weak demand, import pressure to
persist in Europe MPG market
By Nicole Simpson 05-Jan-23 18:30 LONDON
(ICIS)–Demand in the European mono propylene
glycol (MPG) market is expected to remain
lacklustre, especially in Q1, as macroeconomic
headwinds and pressure from Asian imports
persist.
OUTLOOK ’23: Jet kerosene demand to increase on
relaxed COVID-19
restrictions
By Cassandra Abolaji 04-Jan-23 20:00 LONDON
(ICIS)–The outlook for the European jet
kerosene market is optimistic for 2023, as the
world reaches almost full recovery from
COVID-19 travel restrictions.
OUTLOOK ‘23: New capacity, China’s COVID-19
surge weigh on Asia EVA
market
By Helen Lee 04-Jan-23 15:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s supply of ethylene vinyl acetate
(EVA) is expected to lengthen as new capacities
start-up, while surging COVID-19 cases in China
following easing of pandemic-related
restrictions could cap demand recovery in the
first quarter of 2023.
China Dec PMI at 34-month low; recovery
expected to come in Feb
By Fanny Zhang 03-Jan-23 15:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing
purchasing managers index (PMI) slumped to a
34-month low of 47.0 in December amid
fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreaks.
Recovery is expected to happen in February when
factories come back on stream from the Lunar
New Year holiday break.
OUTLOOK ’23: Mid East, South Asia PS
markets to hinge on SM trend, China’s
recovery
By Damini Dabholkar 29-Dec-22 10:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Q1 2023 outlook for polystyrene
(PS) markets in the Middle East and South Asia
remains uncertain and will largely be dependent
on the availability and prices of upstream
commodities. The market is not expected show
any strong signs of recovery, however, at least
until end January, which is when many countries
in Asia celebrate the Lunar New Year. Post
Lunar New Year, demand is likely to see an
uptick, as has been observed historically.
OUTLOOK ’23: Automotive sector hits the
brakes for growth prospects
By Morgan Condon 28-Dec-22 22:30 LONDON
(ICIS)–Conditions have been challenging for
the automotive industry in recent years, and no
immediate reprieve is expected in the near term
against a backdrop of geopolitical volatility.
Growth expectations for 2022 were not fulfilled
and the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end
of February stifled any post-pandemic
macroeconomic recovery. This trend looks set to
continue in the industry in 2023.
China downgrades COVID, stops
quarantine for inbound
travellers
By Fanny Zhang 27-Dec-22 11:29 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China will downgrade COVID-19 to a more
common infectious disease, manage it at
Category B instead of the top-level Category A
and scrap quarantine for inbound travellers
from 8 January, the National Health Commission
(NHC) announced late on Monday. Currently,
COVID-19 is classified as Category B but
managed as Category A that applies to diseases
like plague and cholera in China.
OUTLOOK ’23: Europe naphtha demand to improve,
Russian sanctions to tighten
supply
By Cassandra Abolaji 23-Dec-22 00:30 LONDON
(ICIS)–The Europe naphtha market ended 2022 on
a volatile note and will remain volatile at the
start of 2023. This after months of weakening
feedstock demand partially caused by China’s
absence from the market due to lingering
COVID-19 restrictions and high oil prices.
OUTLOOK ’23: Europe MX to lag behind
pre-COVID-19 levels despite improved
consumption
By Zubair Adam 23-Dec-22 00:30 LONDON
(ICIS)–2022 has been a rough year for mixed
xylenes (MX) in Europe mainly due to issues
with gasoline and global events impacting
chemical demand with no significant recovery
prior to pre-pandemic levels.
OUTLOOK 23’: China toluene market may face
oversupply and trade flow
change
China toluene market pivoted from net import to
net export in 2022 amid Russia-Ukraine war, but
in 2023 the domestic market might face
increased supply whereas demand weakness may
persist putting pressure on the export market.
OUTLOOK ’23: Asia PP’s potential oversupply may
outweigh China’s demand
recoveryPossible oversupply
in Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market may
outweigh the impact of demand recovery in China
in 2023.
OUTLOOK ’23: Asia BDO to struggle with long
supply while awaiting demand
rebound
The Asian 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market continues
to be mired in weakness, while the malaise
could extend into the new year given the slow
market conditions amid the yearend lull and the
upcoming Lunar New Year holidays in the second
half of January.
OUTLOOK ’23: Asia IPA to see poor demand, ample
supply in H1 2023
Asian isopropanol (IPA) spot markets will
likely face headwinds in the first half of 2023
on poor demand and ample supply.
OUTLOOK ’23: Asian PET to face headwinds as
supply likely to outstrip
demand
Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) supply
will likely outstrip demand in 2023 on the back
of new capacities scheduled to come online in
the upcoming year.
OUTLOOK ’23: Asia adipic acid supply to
increase amid demand
concerns
Asia’s adipic acid market will see an increase
in overall production capacity in 2023,
however, the bigger question for the industry
is whether its downstream derivatives are
growing at a pace quick enough to support it.
OUTLOOK ‘23: China’s MX to face further
uncertainty from downstream
PX
China’s mixed xylene (MX) prices surged to a
decade-high level on soaring crude oil prices
in the first half of 2022, before fluctuating
downwards in the second half of 2022. In 2023,
the market may see support from the launch of
some downstream paraxylene (PX) units, but this
could depend on the profitability of the PX
industry.
OUTLOOK ’23: East, south Asia ethanolamines to
face supply headwind
The ethanolamines market in east and south Asia
remains under downward pressure towards the end
of the year. Tepid demand appears entrenched
with limited signs of any significant rebound
in the near term.
OUTLOOK ’23: East and South Asia LAB mired in
weakness although optimism
remains
The linear alkylbenzene (LAB) markets in east
and south Asia continue to be mired in weakness
with demand in a low ebb. Buyers remain mostly
unhurried with supply ample in most regions.
Asia petrochemicals sector to bottom out in
December
By Jimmy Zhang 16-Dec-22 12:15 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Although bullish sentiment has started
to develop in Asian petrochemical markets from
early December amid China’s easing of pandemic
curbs, concerns are still in place amid the
global economic headwinds and slowing of
trading activity ahead of year-end holidays.
China petchems demand recovery unlikely before
Q2 2023 despite easing COVID
restrictions
By Jenny Yi 14-Dec-22 23:34 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s zero-COVID strategy has been
eased since early December. ICIS analysts
expect, however, that demand for most commodity
petrochemicals will not improve significantly
in the short term, and that large-scale
recovery may only begin in the second quarter
of 2023.
Asia fatty acids near-term demand tepid; may
pick up after Lunar New Year
By Helen Yan 14-Dec-22 12:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s fatty acids demand will remain
tepid in the near term amid the year-end
holiday lull but will likely pick up after the
Lunar New Year holidays next year.
INSIGHT: Chemicals output falls as industrial
activity contracts globally, 2023 expected
weak
By Nigel Davis 14-Dec-22 00:23 LONDON
(ICIS)–It is not so much a question of how low
will it go but how slow will it be – and for
how long? Capacity utilisation data show that
the chemicals sector globally has geared down
in the face of current headwinds. And there are
many of those.
China petrochemical futures mixed;
near-term demand recovery in
doubt
By Fanny Zhang 08-Dec-22 13:03 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets
were mixed on Thursday morning as demand may
remain soft despite a further relaxation in the
country’s COVID-19 curbs. “We don’t see any
strong demand recovery for commodities in the
short term,” said Zhang Junfeng, an analyst at
brokerage China Merchant Securities. “Consumer
confidence still needs time to rebuild,” Zhang
said. Late on 7 December, the Chinese
government announced 10 measures to optimise
its COVID-19 policy, including allowing people
with mild or no symptoms to quarantine at home,
and cancelling of testing requirements for
domestic travelers.
GPCA ’22: Supply chain localisation
could help reduce logistics pressure – Saudi
society
By Tom Brown 07-Dec-22 23:15 RIYADH
(ICIS)–Supply chain operators should shift
further towards localised operations and away
from globalisation to build resilience and
adapt to the volatility that has strained
logistics for several years, the chairman of
the board for the Saudi Supply Chain and
Procurement Society said. The current state of
extreme stress on global trade links that has
been seen since the COVID-19 pandemic decoupled
movement along traditional supply routes is
unlikely to be a temporary phase, and further
localisation of supply chains could be a
solution, according to Supply and Procurement
Association board chair Saleh Ibrahim
Al-Shabnan.
INSIGHT: Easing in supply chains could
signal further problems for Europe’s chems
sector ahead
By Morgan Condon 02-Dec-22 20:46 LONDON
(ICIS)–Easing supply chain disruption has
given petrochemical producers in Europe some
respite in the wake of recent crashing demand.
But the smoother flow of product could lead to
further destabilising of market fundamentals,
rather than providing balance to the market. As
new orders in Europe have subsided, this has
given room for producers to catch up with
backlogs, smoothing out extended lead times,
and allowing congested bottlenecks to
dissipate. While this has been some help in the
short-term, the likelihood is that diminished
appetite for materials could eventually disrupt
logistics, as deliveries slow down to match
need.
US manufacturing contracts for first
time in 30 months
By Stefan Baumgarten 02-Dec-22 01:04 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–The US manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) fell by 1.2 points from
50.2 in October to 49.0 in November – pushing
the index into contraction territory, last seen
in May 2020 during the first wave of the
COVID-19 pandemic, ICIS senior economist Kevin
Swift said. He was commenting on the November
PMI report by Institute for Supply Management
(ISM), released earlier on Thursday, which
showed the first contraction in manufacturing
after 29 consecutive expansions.
Caixin’s Nov China manufacturing PMI
rises to 49.4
By Nurluqman Suratman 01-Dec-22 10:33 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Caixin’s China manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) rose to 49.4 in November
from 49.2 in October but remained in
contractionary territory as ongoing COVID-19
containment measures continued to weigh on the
sector, the Chinese media firm said on
Thursday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates
expansion in the manufacturing economy,
while a lower number denotes contraction.
Manufacturers in China registered a further
fall in output, with the rate of contraction
picking up slightly from October, amid a
sustained reduction in sales, Caixin said in a
statement. Companies frequently linked the
decline to the impact of COVID-19 restrictions
on operations and customer demand,” Caixin
said.
UK manufacturing woes continue as
output, new orders and employment
fall
By Jonathan Lopez 01-Dec-22 20:45 MADRID
(ICIS)–The UK’s manufacturing sectors remained
in contraction territory in November because of
lower output, shrinking orders, and reduced
employment levels, analysts at S&P Global
said on Thursday. The UK’s PMI index came in at
46.5 points in November, a slight improvement
from October’s 46.2 points, but any reading
below the 50.0 points mark shows contraction.
“The intermediate goods sector fared especially
poorly, while downturns also continued at
consumer and investment goods producers,” said
the analysts.
INSIGHT: Preparing for a difficult
winter in Europe and a tougher
2023/24
By Nigel Davis 26-Nov-22 00:56 LONDON (ICIS)–A
mild autumn has alleviated some of the tension
in Europe’s energy markets and the pressure on
natural gas availability. But colder weather
beckons and gas usage will rise putting, as it
does in normal years, upward pressure on gas
prices. The filling of storage tanks across the
continent has provided a buffer against the
worst damage that the Russia-Ukraine war can do
to Europe’s energy supply, while reduced demand
by industry has made a significant
contribution. What is not clear is how energy
availability to industry, and the costs of that
gas and power, change moving into 2023.
NE Asia ethylene output to remain weak
up to at least H1 2023
By Yeow Pei Lin 25-Nov-22 11:53 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s ethylene production is
expected to be constricted by heavy cracker
turnarounds, poor margins and weak downstream
demand up to at least the first half of 2023.
China’s weak phenol imports to prompt
deeper output cuts in Asia
By Helen Lee 25-Nov-22 16:06 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s phenol imports are being
weighed down by a combination of ample domestic
supply, rising COVID-19 caseloads, easing
upstream markets, and the absence of restocking
ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in late
January.
SE Asia PE market dazed by China
stop-start demand
By Izham Ahmad 24-Nov-22 16:36 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Initial spot import offers for December
shipments of polyethylene (PE) in southeast
Asia were announced in the same range as the
previous week’s assessment or softer this week,
with market players baffled by the stop-start
nature of China’s demand for PE.
German manufacturers increase warehouse
capacity post-pandemic
By Morgan Condon 23-Nov-22 20:40 LONDON
(ICIS)–German industrial players have expanded
warehouse capacity and focus more on supply
chains in the wake of the pandemic, according
to the latest data released by the Ifo
Institute on Wednesday. Results of the study
from the economic research group found that 68%
of companies surveyed increased warehouse
sizing, with 65% seeking additional suppliers
since 2020, and 54% of firms now monitor their
supply chains more closely. The outbreak of
COVID-19 in 2020 initially caused a slowdown in
manufacturing, as regions applied lockdowns,
and implemented restrictions at ports and
borders to contain the spread of the virus.
IMF urges China to further recalibrate
COVID-19 strategy
By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Nov-22 18:22 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
has urged China to further recalibrate its
COVID-19 strategy and provide additional
support to its beleaguered property sector to
mitigate risks from a global economic slowdown.
Following the recovery from the initial impact
of the pandemic, the world’s second-biggest
economy remains under pressure, with growth
projected to slow to 3.2% in 2022, from an 8.1%
pace last year, before improving to 4.4% in
2023 and 2024, the IMF stated on 22 November
following a review of China’s economic
conditions.
PODCAST:
Sustainable development may create new growth
space for petrochemical
industry
By Yvonne Shi 18-Nov-22 11:29 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–ICIS analysts Jady Ma and Yvonne Shi
discuss how sustainable development is working
on the petrochemical industry and subsequent
reactions.
PODCAST:
Macroeconomics prove challenging for global
chems in 2023, although some bright spots
remain
By Morgan Condon 16-Nov-22 22:50 LONDON
(ICIS)–After several challenging years in the
wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, volatile
geopolitical conditions and a tough
macroeconomic backdrop mean that things are
unlikely to turn a corner for global chemicals
producers heading into the new year. Senior
economist for global chemicals Kevin Swift
talks to senior reporter for Europe Morgan
Condon about the outlook for the coming year,
and the key features for the market in 2023.
INSIGHT:
Lacklustre demand from various outlets
impacting polyols, TDI and
toluene
By Zubair Adam 17-Nov-22 21:03 LONDON
(ICIS)–Weaker activity from the automotive and
flexible foam industries is impacting the
consumption of polyols and toluene diisocyanate
(TDI), with some additional impacts from the
latter on feedstock toluene due to lower
production. No short term demand recovery is
envisaged for the whole value chain.
INSIGHT: China’s
property rescue plan to boost some
petrochemicals
By Fanny Zhang 16-Nov-22 20:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s latest measures to rescue the
stressed property sector are expected to lift
some petrochemicals, although they are unlikely
to reverse bearish sentiment on the sluggish
property market, according to economists and
analysts.
China
outlook dims further on fresh COVID-19 surge,
real estate slump
By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Nov-22 13:17 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s economic outlook just turned
dimmer amid downbeat October data, with surging
domestic COVID-19 infections and slumping real
estate market threatening to aggravate weak
petrochemical demand.
Asia soap noodles
to remain sluggish in near term on year-end
holiday lull
By Helen Yan 16-Nov-22 10:52 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s soap noodles market is likely to
remain sluggish in the near term as buyers
remain cautious and are reluctant to lock in
large forward spot volumes ahead of the
year-end holiday lull. China’s zero COVID-19
policy has had an impact on regional trade.
Weak demand
outweighs refined COVID-19 policy, capping
China PP price rise
By Zhibo Xiao 15-Nov-22 16:02 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s polypropylene (PP) futures
surged following the release of the refined
COVID-19 policy on 11 November, but the market
may still face pressure toward the year-end
amid tepid demand recovery, intensive arrivals
of competitively-priced imports and expected
new plant start-ups.
Asia’s MIBK
players pin hopes in 2023
rally
By Angeline Soh 15-Nov-22 16:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK)
players expressed hopes in a 2023 rally, after
the easing of global COVID-19 infection rates,
and China’s easing of some of its strictest
restrictions based on its zero-Covid policy.
China
eases COVID-19 curbs, petrochemical futures
boosted
By Fanny Zhang 11-Nov-22 16:20 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China will relax its COVID-19 control
measures in view of changing circumstances,
shoring up equity markets accordingly. The
National Health Commission (NHC) announced 20
measures on Friday in a push for more targeted
and optimised control of the pandemic. Under
the new policies, the quarantine time for close
contacts of cases is shortened to five days in
centralised locations from seven previously.
Asia ethylene little changed as players
await direction from ’23 term
talks
By Yeow Pei Lin 11-Nov-22 11:16 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s ethylene spot import prices for
December-arrival cargoes were broadly stable
this week, as the weak downstream margins and
strong US arrivals continued to be
counterbalanced by limited regional supply.
Bearish sentiment dominates Asia
November petrochemical
markets
By Amy Yu 11-Nov-22 10:29 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Bearish sentiment in Asian
petrochemical markets has risen due to weak
demand from late October, and we expect prices
of most products in the region to remain on a
downward trend in November.
US chem shares surge as broader market
rises on positive inflation
data
By Adam Yanelli 11-Nov-22 06:23 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies
surged on Thursday, largely outperforming the
broader market which rose significantly on
favourable economic data on inflation.The Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose by 3.7%, while
the Dow Jones US Chemicals Index rose by 4.95%
and the S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index
rose by 5%.
Europe PET buyers
lured by imports, but demand
questionable
By Caroline Murray 11-Nov-22 01:58LONDON
(ICIS)–The window of opportunity for
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) importers
appears wide due to Europe’s unique cost
situation, but demand is so low that PET buyers
are unsure how to proceed.
British
industrial demand to remain below previous
years
By ICIS Editorial 10-Nov-22 01:05 LONDON
(ICIS)–Despite recent pressure to NBP
Day-ahead and front month gas prices, a return
to high levels of industrial offtake in Britain
is unlikely, ICIS analysis shows. Normal
industrial demand over the past five years has
averaged 10mcm daily. However, since the rise
of gas prices in Britain, industrial gas
offtake has dropped to around 5.6mcm from
January to November 2022.
EU, eurozone
September chems prices decline modestly in
split market
By Morgan Condon 10-Nov-22 01:30 LONDON
(ICIS)–Chemical pricing in September was mixed
for European producers, with some key
manufacturing nations bucking the modest
declines recorded in the eurozone and wider EU,
according to the EU’s statistical agency,
Eurostat.
The latest data from Eurostat indicates that
Italy and Poland recorded single-figure gains
compared with the previous month, supported by
smaller gains in France and Germany.
Asia
BDO retreats on poor demand, weak domestic
China market
By Clive Ong 10-Nov-22 11:27 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asian 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market
trended lower as demand in the region
dissipated amid a poor economic outlook. Some
participants believe that demand in the region,
in particular China, could remain weak until
after the Lunar New Year in late January.
Asia
petrochemical markets mixed amid high
inflation
By Felicia Loo 09-Nov-22 14:28 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets were mixed
amid economic headwinds and dampening
consumption in China amid a slowing economy,
with no let-up on its harsh zero COVID-19
policy, dampening consumption.
China, India
ethanolamines markets under downward pressure
as demand wanes
By Clive Ong 10-Nov-22 14:28 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The ethanolamines markets in China and
India remain under downward pressure amid
prevailing weak demand and ample supply.
Participants continue to expect weak markets in
the near term as the global economic outlook
remains uncertain.
China’s MEC demand disrupted by
zero-COVID strategy
By Keven Zhang 09-Nov-22 11:41 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s methylene chloride (MEC) prices
saw steep falls in the past two weeks due to
disruption to its domestic demand by the new
round of lockdowns implemented to contain the
COVID-19 spread in the country, although
production cutbacks may provide some support in
the near term.
INSIGHT: More
pain for chemicals as US Federal Reserve has ‘a
ways to go’ on rate hikes
By Joseph Chang 03-Nov-22 06:25 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–US and global chemical producers will
likely see more pain ahead as the US Federal
Reserve still has a “ways to go” in its
tightening cycle to bring inflation down to its
2% target. It’s not pausing or pivoting, and
not budging from its target. The US equity
market as measured by the S&P 500 fell 2.5%
on 2 November on disappointment that the Fed
gave no indication it will stop interest
raising rates, other than acknowledging it has
already tightened monetary policy
significantly. The Fed hiked its benchmark rate
by 0.75 percentage points – its third
consecutive hike of that magnitude – to a range
of 3.75-4.00%. “Our message is clear – we think
we have a ways to go. We have some ground to
cover with interest rates before we get to that
level… we think is sufficiently restrictive,”
said Fed chair Jerome Powell at the Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference.
INSIGHT: Asia
October PMIs point to broadening export
downturn
By Nurluqman Suratman 02-Nov-22 17:21 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Amid falling new orders and inventory
build-up, Asia’s export downturn is broadening
with the latest data pointing to further
weakness in factory activity across the region.
The slowdown in manufacturing activity has now
widened from northeast Asia to also include
southeast Asia amid waning export demand.
Asia’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index
(PMIs) fell in October to an average of 49.6,
down from 50.7 in September, due largely to a
fall in new orders and lower production as
export orders weakened further.
China’s Oct
petchem market falls on oversupply, poor
confidence
By Yvonne Shi 02-Nov-22 12:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s petrochemical market fell
significantly in October. As of October 31, the
ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index (which
tracks 17 commodities) dropped 5.4% from
September 30 to close at 1220.11 points. The
quick fall after a sharp rise after the
National Day holiday reflects sluggish demand
and lack of market confidence. China’s
petrochemical market started the downtrend from
the middle of the month till the end. An
official source before the 20th National
Congress of the Communist Party of China
disclosed that China’s epidemic prevention and
control will continue to adhere to the
zero-COVID policy, which hit market confidence
severely.
UK manufacturing
sector output contracts further as new orders
dry up
By Tom Brown 01-Nov-22 20:00 LONDON (ICIS)–UK
manufacturing sector output slipped further
into contraction in October, and hit a 29-month
low as new order volumes shrank at the fastest
rate since May 2020, according to data from
S&P Global on Tuesday. The sector
purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell further
in the month, dropping to 46.2 from 48.4 in
September, although they were stronger than
initial readings for the month of 45.8. A PMI
score below 50.0 signifies contraction. It was
the third consecutive month of contraction for
the sector, as the economic outlook continued
to deteriorate. New orders and new export
business both declined in the month. Players in
the UK cited softer demand from China, the war
in Ukraine and ongoing obstacles to exporting
posed by Brexit. Business optimism slipped to
the lowest level since the height of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
China posts 3.9% Q3 GDP growth; President Xi
secures third term
By Pearl Bantillo 24-Oct-22 13:21 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China posted an annualised GDP growth
of 3.9% in the third quarter, up from 0.4% in
the previous quarter, but a combination of a
zero-COVID policy and a property downturn will
continue to weigh on the world’s second-biggest
economy.
US economy continues to slow, recession likely
– NABE survey
By Stefan Baumgarten 24-Oct-22 22:00 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–The US economy continues to slow and is
likely already in recession or may soon be in
recession, according to findings in the latest
business conditions survey by the National
Association for Business Economics (NABE) on
Monday.
INSIGHT: Asia C3 to face headwinds in fourth
quarter
By Julia Tan 25-Oct-22 10:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asian propylene market is facing
headwinds as it steps into the fourth quarter
as demand looks likely to remain weak until the
end of the year on poor derivative margins.
China PP lacks post-holiday support as weak
demand overshadows high
costs
By Zhibo Xiao 27-Oct-22 12:34 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices in
China rose and then fell after the country’s
National Day holiday on 1-7 October as bearish
demand outweighed the brief surge in crude
values.
INSIGHT: A new world for Asia olefins as
capacity surges, demand remains
uncertain
By Amy Yu 28-Oct-22 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The
Asia olefins industry is witnessing a new world
of significantly squeezed margins for all
producers, with incremental capacity addtions
set against the backdrop of weak demand.
CDI Economic Summary: Recession odds rise as
slowdown takes hold amid Fed
tightening
By Kevin Swift 27-Oct-22 23:07 CHARLOTTE, North
Carolina (ICIS)–Monetary tightening across the
world led by the US Federal Reserve, protracted
inflation and geopolitical events have raised
the odds of recession in many major economies.
Asia petrochemicals stay bearish as China keeps
zero-COVID policy
By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Oct-22 11:40 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Bearish sentiment prevails across
Asia’s petrochemical markets with no immediate
end in sight on China’s zero-COVID strategy,
which has been weighing on overall industrial
activities of the world’s second-biggest
economy.
South and East Asia LAB quiet while rising
feedstock costs squeeze
margins
By Clive Ong 20-Oct-22 17:02 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The linear alkyl benzene (LAB) market
in East and South Asia remains quiet while
suppliers talked of squeezed margins from
rising feedstock costs. The desire for higher
values, however, were countered by the
persistently weak demand in the region.
India, SE Asia ethanolamines remain under
pressure from competitive
offers
By Clive Ong 20-Oct-22 15:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)—The ethanolamines markets in southeast
Asia and India remain under downward pressure
from competitive offers and tepid demand.
Participants anticipate further weakness in the
near term as the Chinese market looks set to
remain weak.
INSIGHT: Japan economy to find succor in
automotive output recovery
By Pearl Bantillo 20-Oct-22 12:25 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Japan may be able to count on a
recovery in car production, which should
provide much-needed boosts to related
industries, including petrochemicals, to
cushion its economic downturn.
INSIGHT: European home improvement sector
slumps on economic slowdown, post-COVID
effects
By Nicole Simpson 19-Oct-22 21:33 LONDON
(ICIS)–As the threat of recession looms over
Europe and consumers look to cut back on
unnecessary spending, demand for home
improvement and do-it-yourself (DIY) goods has
plummeted.
Asia oleochemicals market likely flat in Q4 on
zero-COVID policy in China
By Helen Yan 19-Oct-22 12:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s oleochemicals market is expected
to remain flat in the fourth quarter due to the
prevailing sluggish demand from China amid its
zero-COVID policy, which is expected to remain
in place for the rest of this year.
INSIGHT: Global demand slump eclipses Asia
export benefits from currency
falls
By Pearl Bantillo 18-Oct-22 13:14 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s tumbling currencies will not
spell strong exports for the region as a
combination of surging inflation and high
interest rates slows the pace of global
economic activities.
EPCA ’22: Chemicals supply chains lengthening,
security of supply increasingly important –
Vopak CEO
By Nigel Davis 07-Oct-22 17:40 BERLIN
(ICIS)–Chemicals supply chains are becoming
necessarily longer as consumers and producers
see markets balancing between imports and local
production, the CEO at tank storage operator
Vopak said this week.
China September petrochemical markets up;
demand outlook still bleak
By Yvonne Shi 11-Oct-22 14:16 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets were
mostly higher in September on supply tightness
in some products and aided by pre-holiday
restocking, but overall demand is not expected
to improve by much in the coming months.
IMF trims developing Asia growth outlook on
China weakness
By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Oct-22 12:46 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
has trimmed its economic growth forecast for
emerging and developing Asian economies on
account of China’s slowdown.
Asia BDO market faces lengthening
supply, uncertain demandBy Clive
Ong 13-Oct-22 13:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The
nascent recovery in Asian’s 1,4-butanediol
(BDO) market in September now faces the
challenge of lengthening supply with demand
staying uncertain.
Singapore Q4 GDP growth slows to 4.4%, monetary
policy tightened
By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Oct-22 11:37 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Singapore’s central bank on Friday
tightened its monetary policy to dampen
persistent price pressures which has slowed its
economy to a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in the
fourth quarter.
EPCA ’22: Chemical industry may slow
but must manage through cycle, Equate
CEO
By Nigel Davis 06-Oct-22 17:11 BERLIN
(ICIS)–The chemical industry may slow over the
next 12 months but it is a question of managing
through the cycle, Equate’s CEO Naser Aldousari
said on the sidelines of EPCA 2022 on
Wednesday. Aldousari remains optimistic for the
sector and emphasises its resilience.
Asia Q4
petrochemical demand faces headwinds as global
economy slows
By Felicia Loo 06-Oct-22 14:28 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Petrochemical demand in Asia will be
largely undermined because regional factories
face continued weakness in export demand in the
fourth quarter.
EPCA
’22: COVID-19 pandemic set gender parity back a
generation – Dow exec
By Tom Brown 05-Oct-22 23:21 BERLIN (ICIS)–The
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic set the
progress of gender parity back 30 years, Dow’s
head of inclusion and diversity said on
Wednesday, because of the disproportionate
impact it had on women’s participation in the
labour market.
EPCA
’22: Europe ADA, nylon 6,6 demand may weaken
further in October
By Marta Fern 05-Oct-22 16:00 LONDON
(ICIS)–European adipic acid (ADA) and
downstream nylon 6,6 markets face affordability
concerns, high costs of production and
competition with lower priced imports from
Asia.
EPCA
’22: European auto output will only recover to
pre-pandemic levels in
2025 – analyst
By Jonathan Lopez 04-Oct-22 18:21 BERLIN
(ICIS)–Production from the European
petrochemicals-intensive automotive sector is
unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels
until 2025 at the earliest, a chemicals analyst
at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) said on
Tuesday.
Andreas Gocke, global lead for chemicals at
BCG, said the war in Ukraine and supply-chain
issues have only seen a further deterioration
in the outlook for the automotive sector, which
was already negative in 2021.
EPCA ’22: Weak demand, wider
uncertainty shapes Europe acrylate esters
outlook
By Mathew Jolin-Beech 04-Oct-22
22:00 LONDON (ICIS)–Europe’s acrylate
esters markets are set to be gripped by ongoing
weak demand and wider macroeconomic uncertainty
in Q4 and early 2023.
EPCA ’22: PODCAST: Europe
petrochemicals face ‘winter of
discontent
By Will Beacham 04-Oct-22 15:19 BERLIN
(ICIS)–Europe’s petrochemical sector faces a
‘winter of discontent’, battered by high energy
costs, collapsing downstream demand and
increased imports from Asia. In this Think Tank
podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight
editor Nigel Davis, ICIS senior analyst Lorenzo
Meazza, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal
Consulting. The European Petrochemicals
Association (EPCA) annual meeting runs on 4-6
October in Berlin.
EPCA ‘22: Demand concerns loom over
Europe PC market in Q4
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 03-Oct-22 19:14
LONDON (ICIS)–Pessimism reigns in the European
polycarbonate (PC) market moving into the end
of 2022 as demand from the key customer sectors
is likely to remain tepid due to Europe’s dim
macroeconomic outlook.
INSIGHT: Trends converging to create Q4 glut in
US plastics
By Al Greenwood 30-Sep-22 05:21 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–North American polymer markets are
facing a growing glut because of weakening
demand, expanding capacity and rising
inventories.
Europe economic sentiment dropping as Germany
on brink of recession
By Morgan Condon 29-Sep-22 23:13 LONDON
(ICIS)–European economic sentiment continued
falling in September, for both the EU and the
eurozone, and the German economy is heading
towards a recession, as sentiment is shaped by
sustained high energy prices.
Lockdowns, property crisis to slow China 2022
GDP growth to 2.8% – World
Bank
By Nurluqman Suratman 29-Sep-22 13:3 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China, the world’s second-biggest
economy, is projected to grow at a much slower
pace of 2.8% this year compared with an earlier
forecast of 5.0%, according to the World Bank,
amid the country’s zero-COVID policy and
ongoing property crisis.
INSIGHT: India PVC market weathers stormy first
half, safeguard investigation
begins
By Damini Dabholkar 29-Sep-22 11:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS) –India’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market
stabilised slightly in September, after having
weathered a storm over the previous 12 months.
China’s PE prices rebound, eyes on demand
sustainability
By Sijia Li 28-Sep-22 12:11 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s polyethylene (PE) prices have
rebounded following continual declines in the
past two months, finding support from improved
end-user demand during the September-October
traditional peak season.
INSIGHT: High cost threatens Asia petrochemical
output as regional currencies
tumble
By Pearl Bantillo 27-Sep-22 12:26 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical production is at
risk of shrinking further as imported raw
materials get more expensive each day that
Asian currencies tumble to new lows.
INSIGHT: Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation
continue to dim growth
expectations
By Tom Brown 27-Sep-22 00:17 LONDON (ICIS)–The
outlook for global growth is continuing to
darken as the economy loses momentum in the
wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, with fresh
economic projections pointing to a substantial
deterioration in prospects from 2023 even
relative to a few months ago
US HB Fuller sees rebound in Asia, slowdown in
Europe
By Al Greenwood 23-Sep-22 05:43 HOUSON
(ICIS)–HB Fuller began to see a rebound in
Asian demand during its fiscal third quarter
because China is reopening from its COVID-19
lockdowns, the US-based adhesives producer said
on Thursday, a trend that other chemical
producers have yet to see.
INSIGHT: US plastics becomes sixth-largest
industry
By Melissa Wheeler 22-Sep-22 23:21 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–The US plastics industry has moved two
spots up to become the sixth-largest industry
in the country, according to the Plastics
Industry Association (PLASTICS).
Asia MEG market under pressure as downstream
cuts operation to ease high
inventories
By Judith Wang 22-Sep-22 18:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) market
has been under pressure during the week as
downstream polyester sector initiated another
round of operation cuts in a bid to relieve
inventory pressure.
INSIGHT: Widespread demand reduction makes a
tough quarter tougher
By Nigel Davis 21-Sep-22 23:49 LONDON
(ICIS)–It has been a tough third quarter for
most upstream producers of chemicals and others
as weaker demand and rising costs have combined
to hit earnings and shift guidance.
US inland truck capacity increases as demand
remains firm
By Adam Yanelli 21-Sep-22 05:15 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Spot and contract rates for inland
truck deliveries have fallen from record-highs
as capacity has increased and demand has
remained strong, according to panelists on a
webinar hosted by supply chain market
intelligence provider Freightwaves.
INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical market to rebound
in September
By Amy Yu 15-Sep-22 18:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–
Some Asia petrochemical prices rebounded in
early September after the decrease in August.
ANALYSIS AND RESOURCES
31-Mar-2023
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US agribusiness titan Archer
Daniels Midland (ADM) and BiOWiSH Technologies
announced ADM will offer a BiOWiSH fertilizer
enhancement as an option to urea, phosphate and
NPK blend volumes.
The fertilizer enhancement is a blend of
proprietary microbial cultures coated onto dry
fertilizer or mixed with liquid fertilizers to
create an enhanced efficiency fertilizer.
It is specifically designed to optimise yield
potential by improved nutrient uptake and to
improve soil conditions for increased plant
vigour. By using endophytic
Bacillus to deliver soil
nutrients to crops through the rhizophagy
cycle, it creates a symbiotic relationship
between the plant and soil microbes.
The company said this unique mode of action is
proven to achieve consistent desired results
across a broad range of operating conditions,
climates and environments at a low cost.
ADM plans to offer it as an option to be coated
onto dry fertilizers sold through several of
its terminals for the 2023 season.
“ADM is committed to delivering solutions that
will enhance farmer profitability and help them
sustainably meet growing demand for
agricultural products. BiOWiSH is one of those
solutions,” said Graig Whitehead, ADM director
of biologicals and new technology.
“It is an easy addition to a fertility
programme for farmers looking to benefit from
improved nutrient use efficiency and increased
yield potential.”
30-Mar-2023
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian firm Arianne Phosphate
announced it has received an updated
engineering study regarding the projected
capital expenditure for its Lac a Paul
phosphate project in Quebec, with the cost for
the project now estimated to be approximately
$1.55bn.
Arianne said given recent uncertainties and
cost overruns facing many mining construction
projects it engaged in the study, which was
undertaken in late 2022 and early 2023 by LCO
Construction & Management Consultants.
The study focused solely on the capital
expenses as the construction, mining and
transportation plans for Lac a Paul remain the
same, as does Arianne’s statement of mineral
reserves.
The estimate also includes required
infrastructure upgrades, including a
hydroelectric transmission line from dam to
site and a ship-loading facility on the north
shore of the Saguenay river.
“This report should go a long way towards
dispelling the view that our CapEx has
appreciated to the point of significantly
diminishing our project,” said Brian Ostroff,
president of Arianne.
“While cost overruns due to inflationary
pressures, supply chain issues and procurement
have affected most projects and, investors now
factor in cost increases of 50-100% into their
models, a less than 30% increase from our last
reported number should be most welcomed.”
Ostroff said it is also worth highlighting that
although the estimates are higher since the
last report, the price of phosphate and the
benefits of the US and Canada exchange rate
have risen as well.
Arianne anticipates that the mine will produce
3m tonnes a year of high-purity phosphate
concentrate.
30-Mar-2023
ICIS Director of Energy Analytics, Matteo
Mazzoni and Matthew Jones, Lead Analyst,
discuss the key takeaways of the electricity
market design reform proposals.
30-Mar-2023
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