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HOUSTON (ICIS)–The ICIS leading business
barometer (LBB) fell for the second consecutive
month in May, getting closer to indicating a
recession.
The barometer reached 131.4 in May, down from
132.5 in April and 133.0 in March. A recession
call would occur if the barometer fell for
three consecutive months and if its cumulative
decline reached 3%.
So far, the barometer has fallen for two
consecutive months and the May figure is down
by 1.2% from March.
Year on year, the May LBB rose by 2.5%, a much
slower rate than in previous months.
Uncertainty in stock markets caused the
decline. That uncertainty reflected monetary
policy at the Federal Reserve and geopolitical
events.
“In summary, the latest reading indicates that
business activity will appreciably slow,” said
Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist.
Issues facing companies including lingering
supply-chain bottlenecks, capacity constraints
in several industries and widespread labour
shortages, he said. “Uncertainty about the
future is very high due to tightening Federal
Reserve policy, the war in Ukraine and the
surge in energy costs.”
The share of expanding indicators, called
diffusion, fell to 53% from 65% in May.
Among the indicators rising were
production-related ones for materials and other
industries sensitive to cyclical fluctuations.
Trends appear to be positive for
construction-related materials, materials used
in other durable goods, and materials used in
packaging and for consumer and institutional
applications.
Performance chemistry for industry rose.
Inventory and other broader leading economic
measures increased.
Selling prices as well as costs for raw
materials and other inputs increased. Equity
prices were mixed.
The ICIS LBB is derived from 17 indicators
relating to the production of materials and
other industries sensitive to cyclical
fluctuations; raw material and input prices;
selling prices; hours worked; relative equity
prices; industry sales-to-inventories; and
several broader economic leading economic
measures.
Monthly data on the ICIS leading business
barometer are available back to January 1947.
The ICIS leading business barometer leads at US
business cycle peaks by seven months on average
and four months at business cycle troughs.
The following chart shows the LBB.
24-May-2022
NEW YORK (ICIS)–Germany-based Covestro sees
higher oil and gas prices driving not only the
energy transition to electric vehicles (EVs)
and renewable power but also greater use of
insulation to enhance energy efficiency, making
it well positioned to capitalise on these
trends, its chief financial officer (CFO) said.
“Energy prices going up in the mid-to-long term
is a positive for us as energy efficiency
programmes become more important. MDI
[methylene diphenyl diisocyanate] is the best
insulation used in refrigerators and buildings,
and EVs use 3-5 times more polycarbonate (PC)
versus traditional cars,” said Covestro CFO
Thomas Toepfer in an interview with ICIS in New
York.
Covestro also produces polyurethane coatings
and composites for wind turbine blades to make
them lower cost and more durable, he noted.
“If we can increase the lifetime of an offshore
wind turbine by 2-3 years, there is a huge
difference in investment returns,” said
Toepfer.
PC is used in EV battery packaging systems for
thermal management as well as electric
powertrain parts and other light-weighting
applications.
“The move to renewable energy, EVs and energy
efficiency is helpful because we provide the
products that enable this transition. It is a
growth multiplier for our business,” said
Toepfer.
ENERGY IMPACT AND
DEMANDCovestro, like all
chemicals producers in Europe, is experiencing
higher energy and raw materials costs,
especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
However, in Q1 it was able to pass on over 90%
of these costs to customers on strong demand,
and it sees demand momentum carrying into Q2,
he pointed out.
Potential EU sanctions on oil imports from
Russia would have minimal impact on the company
as it buys key raw materials such as toluene
and benzene on world markets, he said.
“On the Russian gas question, it is much less
on the agenda politically but if this is
curtailed in Germany the entire industry would
be affected, including Covestro. German policy
does not support this because the economic
impact would be very negative,” said Toepfer.
For 2022, Covestro expects energy costs to jump
to €1.5bn-2bn from €1.0bn in 2021 but the CFO
sees this as manageable amid solid demand
growth.
“In Q1 over 90% of these costs were passed on.
As long as there is demand strength, and that’s
what we see, there will be a flow-through,”
said Toepfer.
Aside from China, which has been hampered by
COVID lockdowns, demand growth is generally
strong in Europe and North America as well as
the rest of Asia, he noted.
Covestro in early May took down its 2022
guidance for earnings before interest, tax,
depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) by €500m
to €2.0bn-2.5bn, on the China lockdowns, higher
energy and raw materials costs and lower global
economic growth projections.
“About 50% of this was due to the China effect,
and the other half linked to lower GDP
projections. But as of the beginning of Q2,
we’re not seeing margins going down so the
momentum is continuing,” said Toepfer.
AUTOMOTIVE
OUTLOOKHowever, pockets of
demand weakness include automotive, which
continues to be constrained by the
semiconductor shortage, as well as the
furniture market in North America, which was
one area cited by US big-box retailers in
contributing to
massive inventory build-ups in Q1.
Automotive weakness is more supply driven, and
could set the stage for a stronger 2023 and
2024, he said.
“If you want to buy a new car in Germany, the
waiting time can be one year. In the US it can
be several months, and they are charging above
list price which is pretty extraordinary. So
the growth rate [this year] will be lower than
initially expected but pent-up demand is
building up, so 2023 and 2024 could be strong
years,” said Toepfer.
Thus far, it is “difficult to tell” when auto
supply-chain issues will ease, as many expected
this in 2022 and it is not happening so far, he
added.
On overall logistics and supply-chain
constraints, Covestro is far less impacted than
many other chemicals companies as it primarily
produces for local markets, the executive said.
“We are producing in regions for the regions,
not depending much on ocean freight, so our
local-for-local strategy is potentially much
more successful during these times,” said
Toepfer.
Interview article by Joseph
Chang
24-May-2022
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 2022 Atlantic hurricane
season is likely to produce an above-average
number of storms because of an ongoing La Niña
and warmer-than-average sea surface
temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and
Caribbean Sea, according to the US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA forecasters are predicting between 14-21
named storms this season. A storm is named once
it has sustained winds of 39 miles/hour (63
km/hour).
Of those, six to 10 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to
six major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or
higher.
NOAA said if its projections hold, this would
be the seventh season in a row of above-average
hurricane activity.
The 2021 season produced 21 named
storms, including seven hurricanes of which
four were major hurricanes.
Only two hurricanes made landfall in the US
during the 2021 season, but one of them caused
damage that is still impacting chemical markets
today.
Hurricane Ida
hit the central Louisiana coast as a category 4
hurricane on 29 August, bringing with it strong
winds and flooding to the area which impacted
chemical plants in the region.
Ida tightened US chemical and polymer markets,
including the chlor-alkali chain all the way
through polyvinyl chloride (PVC), methylene
diphenyl disocyanate (MDI) styrene, linear
alpha olefins (LAO), phthalic anhydride (PA)
and butanediol (BDO).
During a La Niña weather pattern, hurricane
activity in the central and eastern Pacific
basins is suppressed and enhanced in the
Atlantic basin.
Hurricanes and tropical storms can disrupt the
North American petrochemical industry, because
many of the nation’s plants and refineries are
along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas
and Louisiana.
Also, oil and gas production is concentrated in
the Gulf of Mexico. Even the threat of a major
storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies
because companies often evacuate US Gulf
platforms as a precaution.
Petrochemical markets are already tight because
of problems caused by logistical constraints
and the busy hurricane season 2021.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June
through 30 November.
24-May-2022
LONDON (ICIS)–France is continuing to lead the
way in the development of the polyethylene
terephthalate chemical recycling industry in
Europe, with a spate of new facility
announcements set to build out capacity in the
country.
Chemical recycling increasingly seen as the
route to large-scale plastic waste recycling
French plant supply can help consumer
brands reach recycled plastic content targets
Key challenge to overcome remains
collection and sorting of suitable feedstocks
France will have three polyethylene
terephthalate (PET) chemical recycling
facilities opening by 2025, aiming to become
the leader in new recycling technologies in
Europe. Announcements from Eastman, Loop
Industries and Carbios highlight not only the
opportunities but also the challenges still
facing the recycling industry. Namely,
feedstocks.
The announcements point to positive progression
within the chemical recycling sector for PET,
but also raises questions around Europe’s – and
the world’s – ability to provide these new
facilities with the material they need.
Any new venture that requires plastic waste as
a feedstock makes the established but supply
constrained mechanical recycling sector nervous
– especially if they view the new capacities as
competition for raw materials.
Source: ICIS
Chemical Recycling Supply Tracker, 2022
NEW FACILITY
INVESTMENTSLoop Industries
announced that it has selected
Port-Jerome-sur-Seine, in Normandy, as the site
for a 70,000 tonne PET chemical recycling
facility as part of the company’s
partnership with Suez, with a projected
investment of €250m.
The plant will take in waste plastic feedstock,
transported down the Seine River from the Paris
region, and will use Loop’s proprietary
depolymerisation technology, Infinite
Loop, to break down the PET and polyester
waste into its base monomers. This will be used
to produce 100% R-PET resin and polyester
fibre.
Construction is expected to begin in 2023, with
commissioning taking place 18 months later,
though it remains unclear if the plant will
reach commercial scale by 2025 to meet the EU’s
target for 25% recycled content in all PET
beverage bottles by 2025.
US chemicals major Eastman also announced plans
to invest up to $1bn in a hard-to-recycle PET
waste methanolysis-based chemical recycling
facility in France. These feedstocks include
all types of PET packaging, carpets, and
apparel.
The facility would use Eastman’s polyester
renewal technology via a methanolysis
depolymerisation unit to chemically recycle up
to 160,000 tonnes/year of PET waste that is
currently incinerated. The total output
capacity of the facility was not stated, as it
is dependent on yields from the waste PET
inputted. The plant it slated to be operational
by 2025.
Carbios and Indorama Ventures (IVL) have
announced a joint venture to build an
enzymatic-based PET chemical recycling plant at
IVL’s PET production site in Longlaville,
Meurthe-et-Moselle.
The plant is expected to be operational in 2025
and will have a slated post-consumer PET waste
input capacity of 50,000 tonnes/year. The
investment is estimated at €150m for Carbios’
core technology, which includes the integration
of an additional purification stage.
A further €50m is reserved for the
infrastructure preparation of the site. A
feasibility study will be conducted for the
industrialisation of Carbios’ technology on the
IVL production site.
The plant will use Carbios’ C-ZYME
enzymatic recycling technology, referred to by
Carbios as ‘bio-recycling’. Enzymatic recycling
is also known as enzymatic hydrolysis and is a
form of chemical recycling.
Carbios’ recycling technology uses an enzyme
capable of depolymerising PET, which is then
purified before being repolymerised back into
PET.
The joint venture follows the set-up of a
demonstration plant in Clermont-Ferrand that
was established to essentially prove the
process, which would support not only the build
of a plant, but also others that are running
under licensing agreements.
THE QUESTION OF
FEEDSTOCKS
Chemical recycling requires waste to be sorted
to specific grades, as certain contaminants can
prove harmful to the process, such as high
levels of polyvinyl chloride (PVC).
Such grades of waste would be required at high
volumes due to the low yields currently seen in
chemical recycling processes. This is a new ask
of the waste collectors/sorters, which requires
much attention in terms of improving qualities
and meeting end user specifications, as well as
expansion of sorting capacities across the
region.
There are indications of investment in sorting
in France, in particular. However, with other
recycling projects announced for the market, it
may not be enough in the near term.
Reacting to news of the announcements,
mechanical recycler sources in Europe expressed
concerns about what type of material will be
used as feedstock for the two sites, both of
which state they will use either plastic waste
or hard-to-recycle PET.
The biggest concern from the mechanical side is
whether the new facilities would look to
compete for existing feedstocks. However,
recyclers may rest slightly easier after both
Loop and Eastman confirmed to ICIS they intend
their individual sites to be complementary to
the mechanical recycling process.
“As Loop’s technology can recycle all manner of
coloured and contaminated PET, often containing
additives, dyes and other polymers, as well as
polyester fiber, we present a solution that is
complementary to mechanical recyclers,” Loop’s
director for marketing communications Stephanie
Corrente said in an email to ICIS.
The partnership with waste manager Suez also
helps with supply, as Suez will be able to
provide waste input that would ‘otherwise have
no sustainable afterlife through current
recycling methods. Corrente added.
Eastman are also keen to ensure its new site
does not encroach on the mechanical sector.
Replying to a comment ICIS posted on Linkedin,
Eastman said “our view is that mechanical
recycling and molecular [chemical] recycling
can and must complement each other to truly
solve the global issue of material waste. Both
technologies have a critical role.
“We will be focusing on those hard-to-recycle
waste streams that currently have little value
and are lost through either incineration or
landfill.
Eastman’s CEO has stated that agreements to
secure plastic waste feedstocks and government
incentives, as well as the location of the site
will be made in the coming months. So, we have
yet to see how government supports the
advancement of feedstock availability for
chemical recycling.
It is unclear which PET waste feedstocks the
Carbios/IVL plant will secure; the technology
can process waste polyester textiles as well as
packaging. It remains to be seen if the
process competes for existing mechanical
recycling feedstocks or establishes alternative
streams of difficult-to-recycle PET to expand
the recycle coverage for all types of PET
waste.
PLENTIFUL END MARKETS
Eastman and Loop Industries have stated the
R-PET material will support major global
consumer brands based in France, such as
Danone, L’Oreal and L’Occitane, to meet their
recycled plastic content commitments. As well
as support France in its development of a
circular economy.
Eastman also stated it had letters of intent
for multi-year supply agreements for the plant
output have been made with LVMH Beauty, The
Estée Lauder Companies, Clarins, Procter &
Gamble, L’Oreal and Danone. The company stated
that this will represent around $200bn in
annual sales for the plant.
THE FUTUREThe fact these
three projects are located in France is not a
coincidence.
Barbara Pompili, France’s Minister for
Ecological Transition, said the Eastman
investment “demonstrates our country’s
willingness to embrace innovative technologies
that will help us achieve our ecological and
economic ambitions, by revolutionising our
country’s plastics recycling capacities.”
Agnes Pannier-Runacher, French Delegate
Minister for Industry, added that the Eastman
project will allow France to position itself as
a European leader in new technologies for
recycling and recovering plastic waste.
“This investment is the result of the ambitious
approach to industrial reconquest led by the
Government since 2017, which has enabled France
to become the most attractive country in Europe
from 2018 onward for industrial projects,”
Pannier-Runacher said.
It is unsurprising these companies have been
able to secure support from the French
government with such investments as France
looks to achieve its ambitions. These
developments fit with the objectives of the
main regulation in France, the 2020 Circular
Economy Law, “loi Agec”.
Objectives include reaching 100% recycled
plastic by 2025 and a proportion of 5% re-used
plastic by 2023, increasing to 10% in 2027.Its
objectives also include reducing the number of
single-use plastic bottles on the market by 50%
by 2030.
Overall, France is advanced in its waste
management strategy compared to other markets
in Europe. It encourages investment and
innovation and uses a range of regulation and
mechanisms to deliver on the ambitions. There
are many lessons to be learned from this
approach.
At present the operating capacities of chemical
recycling plants remains low in comparison to
mechanical recycling, and Europe has a lower
capacity in comparison to some regions such as
Asia Pacific and North America at less
than 100,000 tonnes/year.
Capacities are projected to rise rapidly, given
the announced projects and assuming adequate
volumes and qualities of feedstocks can be
sourced to feed those plants.
Insight article by Helen
McGeough and Matt
Tudball.
24-May-2022
LONDON (ICIS)—The European Commission should
look to increase storage capacity for key raw
materials to build up resilience in the wake of
the Russia-Ukraine crisis, an executive
director for the Europe-wide chemicals trade
group Cefic said on Tuesday.
With numerous vulnerabilities in EU supply
lines exposed as a result of the war in Ukraine
and ensuing sanctions levied on Russia,
policymakers should move to develop strategic
stores of vital raw materials in the style of
oil and gas reserves, according to Frans
Stokman, Cefic’s executive director for
petrochemicals.
Addressing supply issues and sourcing for key
products and investing in greater capacity to
stockpile reserves are key to improving
resilience along value chains within the EU, he
added.
“I think it’s about short term, medium term and
long term [planning],” he said, speaking at a
Cefic event on Tuesday.
“We need to identify the key bottlenecks for
these key products in the crisis mode; it means
that we need to look at logistics, we need
storage, and we need to look at creating
strategic storage like we do with oil and other
strategic reserves … That means we need
storage capacity.”
VULNERABILITIES
The three months since Russian forces first
invaded Ukraine have exposed the
vulnerabilities in European supply chains, with
the highest-profile being natural gas, where
the EU relies on Russia for almost half of its
imports.
An increasingly total prohibition on purchasing
materials from Russia and the increasing strain
the conflict has placed on supply chains has
highlighted wider interdependencies.
Russia stands as the EU chemicals sector’s
fourth-largest export market and fifth-largest
source of imports, according to Stokman.
The EU is extremely exposed to the loss of
orthoxylene (OX) and paraxylene (PX) supplies
from Russia, according to Cefic data, as well
as a huge swathe of fertilizer chemicals, which
make up nearly half of the 20 chemicals
products where the EU is most exposed to supply
shocks from Russia.
Oscar Guinea, a senior economist at the
European Centre for International Political
Economy (ECIPE), estimated that chemicals make
up around a quarter of the 233 products that
the think tank classifies the EU as having a
high import dependency on, meaning that over
75% of the inputs are sourced from outside the
27-country bloc.
“The question is: what can the EU European
firms do to lower this dependency?” he said.
“Three general strategies, which have pros and
cons: you can stockpile these goods for which
you have dependencies; you can produce these
goods domestically; or you can diversify your
sources of supply so you are not dependent on a
particular company or geography.”
NEW SUPPLY LINES
Hubert Gambs, deputy director general at DG
Grow, an entity within the European
Commission, said the EU’s executive body’s
priorities for manufacturing at present include
large-scale deployment of renewable energy,
prioritising access to raw materials, and
strengthening supply chains.
Part of the plan to accomplish this envisages
the development of greater domestic
manufacturing capacity, as well as brokering
new strategic partnerships.
The Commission agreed a new trade agreement
with Canada in mid-2021, as well as a
partnership with Ukraine on raw materials and
battery technology that has stalled in the wake
of the war.
Negotiations are expected to begin with
Namibian lawmakers on a sustainable raw
materials partnership and talks with
representatives of other African countries may
also be in the pipeline, said Gambs.
The new renewable energy targets set out by the
Commission last week also place a greater focus
on establishing partnerships on raw materials,
he said.
“Part of the [REPowerEU] package… strengthens
our mandate to establish these mutually
beneficial raw material value chain
partnerships,” said Gambs.
The need to strike new deals should not lead to
a replication or past over-reliance on a
particular country or source for a raw
material.
“The EU needs to avoid replicating dependencies
of the past,” he said.
Focus article by Tom
Brown
24-May-2022
BARCELONA (ICIS)–Europe’s propylene market is
in disarray, with massive oversupply and
faltering demand signalling trouble for the
broader economy.
Extreme oversupply in Europe propylene
markets
Sellers desperate to off load volumes
Europe spot propylene trading at 15-30%
discount to contract price
Five Europe crackers in planned
maintenance, unplanned outages elsewhere
Weakness in downstream demand on top of
unplanned outages
High inventories in Europe polypropylene
(PP)
China economy is frozen with 30% in
lockdown
Global economy may enter severe downturn
Three horsemen of the apocalypse – war,
pandemic, potential famine
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews ICIS senior editor,
olefins Nel Weddle, ICIS
senior consultant Asia John
Richardson and Paul
Hodges, chairman of New Normal
Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
Register here .
Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.
24-May-2022
LONDON (ICIS)–The European Commission is
considering extending mandatory recycled
content targets to the construction and
automotive sectors as well as the packaging
sector, a representative for the EU’s executive
body confirmed this week.
“The Commission will come with proposals for
mandatory recycled content in the areas of
packaging, vehicles, and construction products.
This will provide further demand and
stimulation for the market of recycled
plastics,” said Aurel Ciobanu-Dordea, director
general for environment at the Commission.
He was speaking at the ICIS Global Plastics
Recycling Policy summit, which runs on 23-25
May.
These measures would be in addition to the
Commission’s existing requirements that
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) beverage
bottles contain a minimum of 25% recycled PET
(R-PET) by 2025, and that all beverage bottles
contain a minimum of 30% recycled content by
2030.
The Commission will not focus on building
infrastructure but rather in tightening rules
and restrictions to make better use of current
infrastructure, Ciobanu-Dordea said during the
question and answer (Q&A) session of his
presentation.
“We will create the conditions through more
detailed harmonisation for the member states …
Probably some technology innovations will be
necessary, but we are not betting necessarily
on building up more infrastructure, scaling up
significantly the infrastructure, but using
more effectively the infrastructure that exists
currently,” he said.
“[With rules that are] more precise and
detailed, but sometime also they will be
perceived as more restrictive.”
Shortages of sufficient collection and sorting
capacity to meet demand for ambitious
sustainability targets – particularly from the
packaging sector – are regularly cited by
market players as the biggest bottleneck for
recycled polymers.
Feedstock waste bale availability is currently
limited across all three of the major recycled
polymers: R-PET, recycled polyethylene (R-PE),
and recycled polypropylene (R-PP).
Along with energy and transport costs,
shortages and high prices of waste bales have
driven recycled polyolefin values to record
highs in Europe.
This has led to a growing disconnect between
virgin and recycled polyolefin prices, a
disconnect which has existed in the R-PET
food-grade pellet market for more than a
decade.
–
“In the presentation, the EU commission
highlighted the key failure in recycling is the
fragmentation of collection practices and
infrastructure, highlighting any actions that
drive harmonisation in the recycling sector can
only aid the progress in plastics circularity,”
said Helen McGeough, Senior Analyst for
Plastic Recycling at ICIS.
“With the ICIS Mechanical Recycling Supply
Tracker recording output of total R-PET, R-PP
and R-PE in Europe running at 58% of installed
capacity, improved feedstock quantities and
qualities are essential to not only improve the
efficiency of existing recycling but drive
investment for new capacities,” she added.
–
Waste bale shortages and high prices of
recycled polymer flakes and pellets have led
waste managers and recyclers to explore the use
of mixed plastic waste to make up shortfalls,
particularly for non-packaging applications
such as construction.
Many non-packaging applications can handle
lower quality grades than packaging, and are
widening the types of grades they use as the
packaging sector increasingly captures share of
mono-material grades.
Historically due to higher wastage loss than
monosorted material, and the higher
difficulty/cost of sorting mixed plastic waste,
using mixed plastic waste (particularly mixed
polyolefins) was not previously economically
viable, but this has now changed.
As a result, more and more waste managers have
been using mixed polyolefin grades captively,
and sorting material, leaving less available on
the merchant market.
As chemical recycling capacity scales, mixed
plastic waste is expected to further tighten,
as the pyrolysis process – the dominant form of
chemical recycling in Europe – typically uses
mixed plastic waste grades as feedstock.
–
DRS FOR ALL
Despite not planning to significantly scale
current infrastructure, the European Commission
is considering mandating all EU countries to
introduce deposit return schemes (DRS).
Under DRS systems, buyers pay a deposit on
their packaging at the point of collection. The
buyers later drops off the packaging at a
deposit return point – where it is typically
sorted at the point of entry into the system –
and are then given their deposit back.
The advantages of DRS systems are that they
typically result in higher collection rates,
because they incentivise the consumer, and
typically result in lower contamination because
material is typically sorted at point of entry.
Nevertheless, DRS systems rely on the deposit
fee being high enough to incentivise the
customer and have the potential to disrupt
well-functioning kerbside collection schemes,
and in which some countries and companies have
invested heavily.
Front page picture: A DRS machine in
Vienna; archive image
Source: APA-PictureDesk
GmbH/Shutterstock
Focus article by Mark
Victory
ICIS has launched a new mixed plastic waste
pricing service covering European prices for
mixed-polyolefins waste bales, reject
refuse-derived fuel (RDF) bales and reject
materials recovery facility (MRF) bales.
Along with this, the new service covers
emerging trends in the chemical and mechanical
recycling markets, as well as the
burn-for-energy sector. To subscribe to the new
pricing service, or for further information,
please contact clientsuccess@icis.com.
24-May-2022
MADRID (ICIS)–Germany’s chemicals
first-quarter (Q1) sales rose nearly 8% on the
back of higher selling prices but supply chain
woes and material shortages have caused a
“recession mood” among companies, the country’s
chemicals trade group VCI said on Tuesday.
Overall production – including pharmaceuticals
– rose compared with the fourth quarter and
year on year, but, in a worrying sign for the
petrochemicals sector, production excluding
pharma decreased in both measures.
Capacity utilisation also decreased from the
fourth quarter and stands well below its
historic average (see bottom graph).
Germany chemicals
(change in %)
Q1 2022
vs Q4 2021
Q1 2022
vs Q1 2021
Production
1.3
2.8
– Excluding pharmaceuticals
-1.1
-1.6
Producer prices
6.7
21.6
Total sales
7.8
28.4
– Domestic
9.8
36.2
– Foreign
6.6
23.7
Q1 2022
Q4 2021
Capacity
utilisation
(includes pharma)
80.9
81.5
“In Q1 2022, chemical companies struggled with
supply chain bottlenecks and sharply rising
energy and raw materials costs. These problems
were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine,” said
VCI.
“Therefore, many businesses are in a recession
mood. Possible shortages of gas and oil are a
particular cause for concern.”
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU
has moved to sanction important sectors of the
Russian economy, and
sanctions on crude oil are already on the
cards for later in the year.
The VCI has said in the past such a measure
would put a strain on the petrochemicals
industry, especially via
potentially higher naphtha costs, a key raw
material for the industry.
Chemicals and pharmaceutical companies employed
as of 31 March 473,200 workers, sharply lower
than the 530,000 it employed by the end of
2021.
–
OUTLOOK CANCELLEDVCI
said due to the “unpredictable consequences” of
the war in Ukraine, as well as China’s
lockdowns to contain the pandemic, it was
impossible to issue a forecast for 2022.
“Nothing is left of the anticipated upswing
after the Coronavirus winter. The perspectives
for our industry are getting ever bleaker due
to rising energy and raw materials costs,” said
VCI president Christian Kullmann, who is also
CEO at producer Evonik.
“Moreover, due to disrupted supply chains our
industrial customers are cutting back on
production and ordering fewer chemicals. A gas
embargo or a stop of gas supplies from Russia
would have further devastating effects.”
FINAL 2021 FIGURESVCI
also published on Tuesday final production and
sales figures for 2021, which consolidated the
German chemicals industry as the largest in
Europe by a wide margin, with nearly €230bn in
sales, including pharmaceuticals.
France’s chemicals industry comes second, with
€97.2bn in sales in
2021, according to the country’s chemicals
trade group France Chimie.
Spain’s chemicals sales stood at
€77.2bn in 2021, according to the country’s
trade group FEIQUE.
Italy’s trade group Federchimica is yet to
release 2021 sales figures; in 2020, the
country sold chemicals worth €51bn, according
to the Europe-wide trade group Cefic.
Germany chemicals
2021
Compared with 2020
(change in %)
Sales
€227.1bn
19.2
– Domestic
€87.6bn
21.1
– Foreign
€139.5bn
18.0
Number of employees
473,194
1.9
Production
5.3
– Excluding pharma
5.1
Producer prices
9.3
Front page picture: Chemicals park in Marl,
in the German state of North
Rhine-Westphalia
Source: Hans
Blossey/imageBROKER/Shutterstock
24-May-2022
BARCELONA–Supply shortages have pushed prices
up in Europe’s recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market amid a mixed
demand picture.
Supply shortages drive higher prices for
R-PET in Europe in the short term
Bale prices rise amid constrained
availability, limited relief expected in summer
Mixed picture for beverage demand with more
travel versus rising inflation and lower
disposable incomes
Brand commitment to recycled content
remains strong but content rates reassessed
Listen to ICIS analysts Helen
McGeough, Carolina Perujo
Holland and Egor
Dementev discuss latest market
conditions in Europe’s recycled PET markets.
24-May-2022
Updated at 10:45 GMT on 20 May
with updated maps and graphs plus latest news.
Please scroll down to see headlines.
The war in Ukraine caused oil price volatility
which has increased as surging COVID-19 cases
in China led to fresh lockdowns which have hit
demand. China is the world’s second biggest
economy and largest oil importer.
India is facing a more severe shortage of
fertilizers and edible oil amid wide-ranging
trade disruptions as the Ukraine war rages on,
with financial sanctions tightening on Russia.
Europe’s energy challenge is immense and put
into stark relief by the response to Russia’s
war in Ukraine. Cutting the ties that bind EU
and non-EU nations to Russian gas and oil will
be extremely painful this year and in years to
come: the actions proposed by the European
Commission put that into context.
This topic page examines the impact of the
Ukraine conflict on oil, gas, fertilizer and
chemical markets.
Image credit Vadim
Ghirda/AP/Shutterstock
Europe’s energy markets witnessed a year of
record prices and extreme volatility in 2021.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to more
difficult conditions for global markets in
2022.
GAS SUMMARY
Gas storage low in Europe, winter demand
30% higher than rest of year
Record shipments of liquefied natural gas
(LNG) to Europe so far in 2022
LNG could ease Europe shortages if Russia
supplies cut
Europe LNG processing operating at full
capacity
On 27 April Russia suspended gas deliveries
to Poland and Bulgaria
AMMONIA SUMMARY
Russia supplies 20% of global seaborne
ammonia market
Disrupted supply has pushed up fertilizer
and food prices
OIL SUMMARY
Friendship oil pipeline flows through
Ukraine
Russian oil feeds around a quarter of
Europe demand
Europe seeks to end reliance on Russian
crude oil
CHEMICALS SUMMARY
High Europe gas and electricity prices
force price hikes, energy surcharges
Volatile oil and feedstock prices dent
chemical producer margins
Elevated oil prices dent consumer
confidence and demand
Europe is heavily reliant on Russian gas and
exposed to disruptions in supply, but
Russia is also an important oil exporter and a
supplier of fossil fuel products, which find
their way to international markets via
Ukraine’s ports.
Any interruptions in supplies caused either by
cyber or physical attacks or sanctions in
response to them could send shockwaves across
the global economy, lifting the cost of living,
impacting industrial and agricultural
production and potentially leading to social
unrest.
ICIS has taken a broader perspective, asking
how vulnerable energy and energy-related
supplies are to disruptions, what contingency
plans are put in place and what could be
expected in the upcoming weeks.
How vulnerable are energy and
energy-related Russian supplies to
disruptions?
Europe depends for close to 40% of its annual
gas consumption on Russian supplies, imported
via four routes – Ukraine, Belarus-Poland as
well as the Nord Stream 1 and TurkStream
corridors linking Russia to Germany and Turkey
via the Baltic and Black Sea, respectively.
Overall Russian pipeline supplies were limited
throughout 2021, and since the beginning of
this year producer Gazprom has shipped only
one-third of the gas that it was expected to
deliver to European consumers via Ukraine as
part of a five-year transit agreement.
On 27 April Russia banned exports of gas to
Poland and Bulgaria. European petrochemicals
players could face even higher gas prices as a
result.
If the conflict escalates, Ukraine transit
pipelines may come under attack but disruptions
could be limited because the infrastructure has
been built to grant flexibility, allowing the
operator to reroute flows away from potentially
damaged segments.
AMMONIA IMPACT
The Togliatti-Azot pipeline, the world’s
longest ammonia pipeline stretching 2,471km
from the Togliatti Azot plant in Russian Samara
Oblast to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of
Yuzhny, could be caught up in the cross-fire.
Russian ammonia supplies account for around 20%
of the global seaborne merchant ammonia market
each month.
Around two thirds of those volumes are exported
via Yuzhny, with the rest reaching European and
global markets via Baltic ports. Ammonia is a
prime material for fertilizers, so curtailments
could potentially lead to higher food prices
and shortages.
Ammonia market players are scrambling to cover
positions and assess options as the Russian
invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key
export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate
effect.
Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti
confirmed the suspension of the transit of
ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to
ensure the safety of people living in the
vicinity of the lengthy conduit.
The Samara Oblast-based giant also confirmed
the shut down of four of its seven ammonia
units, with the other three plants operating at
reduced rates.
OIL PIPELINES VULNERABLE
Supplies on the world’s longest oil pipeline,
the Friendship (Druzhba) pipeline, could be
threatened if the conflict leads to tough
sanctions. The pipeline carries oil from
central Russia 4,000km west to Ukraine and
Belarus and runs close to the Belarus-Ukraine
border. Russia exports around 5m bbl/day, of
which half are exported to Europe, including
via this pipeline.
Russian oil accounts for about a quarter of
Europe’s consumption, with the Druzhba pipeline
carrying close to 1m bbl/day. Should sanctions
be imposed and exports hindered, Europe will
need to secure alternative cargoes from the
global market.
Europe consumed most exports of Urals, Russia’s
biggest export grade, in 2021 after Saudi
Arabia boosted market share in China. Almost
10m tonnes of Urals went through Rotterdam in
the first half of last year, up 2m tonnes on
2020.
Germany stands most exposed because it gets 25%
of its oil from Russia.
CHEMICALS IMPACT
Gas and electricity are important components in
the production costs of many chemicals. Surging
gas and feedstock prices in Europe have caused
big hikes in contract and spot prices.
Europe is now at a competitive disadvantage to
other regions and some customers are seeking
new sources of lower-priced supply, especially
from Asia and the Middle East.
The conflict in Ukraine has pushed European gas
prices back up to record levels, so some
chemical producers may consider ceasing
production, or adding further energy
surcharges.
Rising oil prices since late 2021 have already
put chemical margins under pressure, and this
has continued into 2022. As oil and naphtha
prices soared, margins for ethylene production
based on naphtha went nagative for the first
time ICIS record began. The are now are
swinging wildy in tandem with oil price
movements.
Chemical producers are struggling to pass on
increasing naphtha feedstock and energy costs,
especially in Europe. Elevated oil prices also
dent downstream consumer confidence and
spending.
What contingency plans are being put in
place?
US and European officials have been planning
for backup LNG supplies. Exports of LNG from
Algeria, Qatar, the US and even Australia have
been discussed as alternatives. Although Europe
imported a record 11bn cubic metres (bcm) of
LNG in January alone, half of which were
sourced in the US, much of future supplies
would depend on price as well as supply and
processing capacity.
Europe is
proposing to replace 100bn cubic metres
(m3) of Russian gas with alternative supplies
by the end of the year.
“In this scenario, there would be huge problems
unless Europe gets it act together. I estimate
that even with new liquified natural gas (LNG)
supplies from the US, Norway, and Qatar plus
energy efficiency measures and more use of
renewables, Europe would still be short by
30-40bn m3,” said ICIS senior energy editor,
Aura Sabadus.
You will find more infographics at Statista
If the Asian premium were to increase, LNG
cargoes would head in that direction, even as
seasonal European winter gas demand is on
average 30% higher than the rest of the year.
Supply disruptions caused by escalating
tensions may lead to a price rebound,
incentivising more LNG to return to Europe.
However, European import terminals are already
operating at nameplate capacity. A record of
5,000GWh/day was reached in mid-January,
according to EU data.
Even if more LNG were to reach European
terminals, countries in central and eastern
Europe which rely on Russian flows shipped via
Ukraine, would struggle to secure imported LNG.
For oil markets, in case of an attack but no
international sanctions, the worst-case
scenario would be for approximately 240,000
bbl/day of lost Russian exports via Ukraine.
There are other seaborne routes, including the
Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
ICIS publishes May oil price
forecast
The crude price has switched from being driven
by supply, to driven by demand in recent weeks.
China’s future oil demand growth is under
question, with lockdowns ongoing in many
cities. Furthermore, the IMF has downgraded
global GDP growth for 2022 by 0.8%, whilst the
US Fed is expected to raise interest rates by
0.5% in May; these will inevitably reduce oil
demand growth for the remainder of the year.
The EU may impose direct sanctions on Russian
crude oil sales later this year. The exact
details of the sanctions are still unclear, but
it is likely that the sanctions will be
implemented in a phased manner over the course
of 2022. The phased nature of the
sanctions does mean that the overall impact on
prices will be much more muted than previously
expected, as it will give Russia time to find
alternative buyers of the crude such as India,
and therefore Russia’s overall exports will be
negatively impacted, but much less so than if
the sanctions were due to be implemented
immediately.
Nevertheless, if the oil sanctions are
implemented, this will be a bullish move and is
accounted for in the ICIS base case forecast,
where the May Dated BFOE price is expected to
average at $111/bbl.
Europe is managing to significantly reduce its
purchases of Russian crude – Germany, for
instance, has halved its imports of Russian
crude. But overall, Russian crude exports have
largely returned to pre-crisis levels, as India
substantially increases its Russian import
volumes to take advantage of extremely large
discounts (-$38/bbl). New oil supply is due on
the market in May as the US and other allies
release ~1.3 million barrels per day for 6
months, providing the market with much needed
supply over the medium term. However, ICIS
anticipates a strong summer driving season in
the West, pushing prices to over $120/bbl in
late summer.
Crude prices are expected to fall considerably
from these levels in winter 2022/2023 as a
combination of high energy costs, high
inflation and higher interest rates leads to
lower economic growth and less overall oil
demand. ICIS expects crude prices to fall below
$100/bbl in early 2023.
Ukraine conflict threatens Europe oil
and chemicals production
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sanctions
could cut supplies of crude oil through the
Druzhba pipeline, threatening oil refinery
operations and chemicals production at
installations in Hungary, Slovakia, Czech
Republic, Poland and the former East Germany.
Russian oil supplies up to a quarter of
Europe’s crude imports, with refineries in
central and eastern Europe, which are attached
to the Druzhba pipeline, particularly reliant
on these supplies. Any interruption to these
supplies could force refineries to reduce
operating rates unless they can find
alternative supplies.
Analysis of the ICIS Supply & Demand
database shows that the countries Druzhba runs
through, except for Germany, are reliant on
Russian crude oil for more than half of their
imports, led by Slovakia which obtained 96% of
its supplies from Russia in 2021.
Chemical production downstream of refineries in
these countries could be impacted by any
reduction in operating rates. The ICIS data
forecast that for 2022, 2.79m tonnes of
ethylene (11% of total European capacity) and
2.34m tonnes of propylene (12% of total
European capacity) are reliant on refineries
located along the Druzhba pipeline. While some
alternative sources of crude oil could be
sourced, it is unlikely normal levels of
operations could be maintained.
Michael Connolly, ICIS Principal Analyst
Refining said: “Although many have built
alternate sources, keeping full operating rates
would be difficult for them as they rely on a
consistent and reliable source of crude. Most
refiners in Europe are aware of the risk of
Russian crude and over the past 5-10 years have
tried to reduce their dependence, or at least
to build some capability to have an alternate
supply – it doesn’t mean they would be
unaffected, but there should be a little bit of
resilience, depending on the site.”
Connolly explained that some land-locked
refineries along the Druzhba pipeline have
built pipelines to the coast, allowing
alternative sources of crude oil to be sourced.
However, these pipelines may not have capacity
to feed the whole refinery.
A spokesperson for Grupa LOTOS said: “The LOTOS
refinery has dealt with suspended supplies by
land before. Due to the contamination of
Russian oil with chlorines, PERN, the
state-owned operator of transmission and
storage infrastructure, had to completely
discontinue the transmission of crude oil from
the eastern direction between 24 April and 9
June 2019.”
He added that scheduling of oil supplies by sea
helped to secure volumes sufficient to maintain
an unchanged level of throughput and maximise
fuel production.
TotalEnergies and PKN Orlen declined to comment
while MOL and PCK have not yet replied to
requests for comment.
A ban or restrictions on exports of Russian
crude oil is one amongst many possible
sanctions against Russia in the event of an
invasion or incursion into Ukraine. Russia
claims it has withdrawn some military forces
from the border with Ukraine but the US White
House say there is no evidence of this
happening.
Base oils buyers are switching from Russian to
European sourcing amid fears of sanctions
against these products.
European polymer markets are also seeing some
impact. A regional polymer seller said: “What
we do see, making the market a bit murky, is
Russian suppliers eliminating European stock
… fire-selling their stocks particularly in
eastern Europe and this is putting pressure on
prices.”
UKRAINE CHEMICALS UNDER THREAT
With Russian forces advancing across Ukraine,
chemical and fertiliser facilities may be
threatened by physical damage, interrupted
power and gas supplies or logistics disruption.
Kalush cracker closed
Karpatnaftohkhim’s cracker at Kalush has been
closed down because of the imposition of
martial law in Ukraine. It has capacity
(tonnes/year) of 250,000 (ethylene); 117,000
(propylene) 110,000 (LLDPE), 300,000 (PVC),
100,000 (benzene).
Black Sea export hub
closed
Ammonia market players have scrambled to cover
positions and assess options as the Russian
invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key
export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate
effect.
Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti
confirmed the suspension of the transit of
ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to
ensure the safety of people living in the
vicinity of the lengthy conduit.
The Samara Oblast-based giant also confirmed
the shut down of four of its seven ammonia
units, with the other three plants operating at
reduced rates.
Russia
export disruptions to shift global trade flows,
future capacities threatened
Disruptions to Russia’s chemicals and polymers
exports will
change trade flows, particularly to Europe
and Asia, as international sanctions, lack of
logistics and even “self-sanctions” limit
volumes.
While Russia’s capacities are relatively small
on a global scale, they can still have a
significant impact on regional markets if these
exports are disrupted.
Key Russia exports include methanol,
polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), styrene
and paraxylene (PX).
Russia has increased exports of high density
polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) in
particular in 2020 and 2021 as new capacity
started up from SIBUR’s ZapSibNeftekhim complex
in Tobolsk in 2020.
LATEST HEADLINES
VR Group’s Russia-Finland rail closure hits
Russian methanol exporters
By Eashani Chavda 23-May-22 09:54 LONDON
(ICIS)–Finnish railway company VR Group is
preparing a plan to stop the transport of goods
between Russia and Finland and has begun to
terminate contracts, in yet another blow to the
Russian methanol market.
US economists ratchet up inflation expectations
– survey
By Stefan Baumgarten 23-May-22 09:00 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US inflation is set to be worse than
previously expected, according to a panel of 53
economists in the National Association of
Business Economists’ (NABE) May outlook survey.
France’s GRTgaz considering direct export
capacity to Germany
By Andrea Battaglia 23-May-22 08:43 LONDON
(ICIS)–French gas exports to Germany could
increase as a project to allow physical exit
flows at the Obeirgailbach-Medelsheim point is
currently being looked into, French
transmission system operator GRTgaz confirmed.
German business sentiment up in May; outlook
flat
By Morgan Condon 23-May-22 05:11 LONDON
(ICIS)–Business sentiment in Germany improved
in May, but the outlook is flat, according to
the Ifo research institute.
INSIGHT: War drives up China toluene exports as
pandemic weighs on local
demand
By Veronica Zhang 23-May-22 04:20 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China toluene market prices have soared
since May, with few prompt deals done as export
demand surged on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and
local demands were curbed by Covid-19 pandemic.
Germany’s economy could begin recovering by
year end – institute
By Stefan Baumgarten 20-May-22 13:57 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany’s economy could begin to
recover by the turn of the year – if there are
no additional impacts from geopolitical
conflicts, and if the sharp rise in energy and
raw material prices moderates, the country’s IW
Institute of the German Economy said in its
spring 2022 forecast.
US gas supply crunch could ease by ’23 – trade
group
By Ruth Liao 20-May-22 13:10 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Tightening US natural gas supply that
has not kept up pace with rising demand has
been a driving factor for the Henry Hub futures
benchmark, although increased supply is
expected to re-balance the US market into 2023,
according to an American Gas Association (AGA)
market webinar.
Germany’s producer prices rise at record pace,
chems up 29.5%
By Stefan Baumgarten 20-May-22 11:11 LONDON
(ICIS)–Producer prices in Germany rose at a
record 33.5% year on year in April amid Ukraine
war impacts and high energy prices, in
particular for natural gas, the country’s
federal statistics agency reported.
Russia’s Gazprom halts gas supply to
Finland
By ICIS Editorial 20-May-22 11:02 LONDON
(ICIS)–Russian gas supplier Gazprom Export
informed Finnish gas importer Gasum on Friday
that contracted supplies would be halted at 7am
local time on 21 May.
Clariant eyes strong first-half 2022 despite
headwinds
By Morgan Condon 20-May-22 06:04 LONDON
(ICIS)–Clariant is making gains towards its
2025 financial targets, driven by a strong
first half of 2022, CEO Conrad Keijzer asserted
at its delayed 2021 financial results
announcement.
Potash offers slip from
all-time highs amid reduced demand; supply
concerns continue
By Andy Hemphill 20-May-22 17:59 LONDON
(ICIS)–Offer pricing in the global muriate of
potash (MOP) fertilizer market has slipped
slightly from all-time highs, necessitated by
buyer resistance to high-priced tonnes and
reduced demand in some nations.
Urea
market weak despite high-volume Indian
purchase
By Deepika Thapliyal 20-May-22 17:27
LONDON (ICIS)–The urea market outlook remains
weak despite India buying nearly 1.7m tonnes,
as there is no major demand anywhere else.
Asia
oleochem players mull over Indonesia’s latest
palm oil DMO policy
By Helen Yan 20-May-22 17:19 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s oleochemical market players are
mulling over the latest news that Indonesia
will reimpose its domestic market obligation
(DMO) policy on palm oil.
Asia
PBT market softens on weak demand, economic
uncertainty
By Clive Ong 20-May-22 16:02 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asian polybutylene terephthalate
(PBT) market remains under downward pressure on
prevailing weak demand. Some participants
anticipate further potential weakness in the
near term as demand showed little pick-up.
Asia
biodiesel sentiment bearish on weak buying
appetite
By Felicia Loo 20-May-22 15:55 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The southeast Asian palm methyl ester
(PME) biodiesel market was down on bearish
sentiment and weak demand from major buyers
Europe and China.
Asian
fatty alcohol players retreat as CPO falls on
export ban removal
By Helen Yan 20-May-22 12:42 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohols buyers and
sellers are holding off any bids and offers in
the near term due to declining crude palm oil
(CPO) prices, after the Indonesian authorities
announced on Thursday that it will lift the
palm oil export ban on 23 May.
Asia
BDO under pressure as tepid demand persists,
economic uncertainty
By Clive Ong 20-May-22 12:17 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asian butanediol (BDO) market
remains under downward pressure from prevailing
soft demand in the region. Buying momentum
could remain slow in the near term from
economic headwinds from the Ukraine conflict
and Russian sanctions, as well as the lockdown
in China which looks set to ease.
US
gas supply crunch could ease by 2023 – trade
association
By Ruth Liao 20-May-22 09:03 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Tightening US natural gas supply that
has not kept up pace with rising demand has
been a driving factor for the Henry Hub futures
benchmark, although increased supply is
expected to re-balance the US market into 2023,
according to an American Gas Association market
webinar on 19 May.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Global economic concerns make
for volatile session
By Barney Gray 19-May-22 14:08 LONDON
(ICIS)–Oil prices rebounded during a volatile
session even as global economic concerns
weighed on sentiment. Bullish factors such as
Shanghai’s planned easing of coronavirus
restrictions and a tightening supply balance
provided upside.
Limited pool of FSRUs available for European
LNG import projects
By Yasmin Yonan 19-May-22 11:49 LONDON
(ICIS)–Following European commitments to phase
out Russian gas there has been increased demand
for Floating Storage and Regasification Units
(FSRUs) to facilitate LNG supply.
EU governing
bodies reach agreement on new gas storage
targets
By Diane Elijah 19-May-22 15:13 LONDON
(ICIS)–On 19 May, the European Parliament and
the Council of the EU announced they
provisionally agreed on new gas storage targets
mandating that storage facilities in the EU27
be 80% full by 1 November 2022 and 90% full the
following years.
To enter into force, the new rules must be
formally adopted by the parliament and the
council and then published in the official
journal of the EU.
ICIS calculated that shippers in the EU27 will
need to inject 42.4 billion cubic metres (bcm)
in storage between 19 May and 1 November to
refill stocks to 80% of their capacity by 1
November. This is the target that they must
achieve.
Asian
PX market split between strong US octane
demand, negative Chinese PTA
marginsBy Samuel Wong
19-May-22 18:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian
paraxylene (PX) prices were supported by a
strong gasoline market in the US, coupled with
firm demand for octane blendstocks.
Mideast polyols demand
weakens, upstream PO
declines
By Damini Dabholkar 19-May-22 18:22 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Prices of polyols were softer this
week, on account of weaker demand and lower
upstream prices. Overall, the outlook is
bearish as supply in Asia remains ample and
demand in the Middle East has weakened
significantly after the Eid holiday.
Philippines’ central bank
hikes policy interest rate by
25bpsBy Pearl Bantillo
19-May-22 18:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The
Philippines’ central bank hiked its policy
interest rate on Thursday by 25 basis points
(bps), following a rebound in economic activity
and amid elevated inflationary pressures.
GLM
COMMENT: Europe and Asia’s changing LNG price
relationshipBy Edward Cox
19-May-22 17:28 LONDON (ICIS)–East Asian spot
LNG has almost always been priced at a premium
to the ICIS TTF given the former’s high
dependency on LNG and with Europe able to tap
into more domestic gas production and pipeline
imports.
Japan
Apr chemical exports rise 8.5%, total exports
up 12.5%
By Nurluqman Suratman 19-May-22 13:24
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s chemical exports rose
by 8.5% year on year to yen (Y) 1,036bn in
April but overall trade remained at a deficit
following a jump in imports, official data
showed on Thursday.
CRUDE SUMMARY: A mixed bag of market drivers
moves crude lower
By Barney Gray 18-May-22 14:12 LONDON
(ICIS)–Crude prices dipped in afternoon
trading on Wednesday. The easing of Chinese
coronavirus restrictions gave rise to hopes of
a demand boost and reports of reduced Russian
production in April were balanced by news that
the US is planning to relax sanctions against
Venezuela.
European Commission ramps up renewables targets
to phase out Russia energy
dependence
By Tom Brown 18-May-22 12:04 LONDON (ICIS)–The
European Commission on Wednesday set out new
targets for renewable power development,
decarbonising road transport and improving
energy efficiency as the EU seeks to wean
itself off of Russian oil and gas supplies.
Rotterdam coal rises amid ongoing geopolitical
uncertainty
By David Battista 18-May-22 11:43 LONDON
(ICIS)–The front-year Rotterdam coal price
gained nearly $19/tonne between 10 and 17 May,
due to ongoing uncertainty in the wider energy
complex amid fallout from the Russian war in
Ukraine.
Finland could struggle to meet demand should
Russian supplies stop
By Daniel Muir 18-May-22 11:02 LONDON
(ICIS)–Russian gas supplies to Finland could
end as soon as 20 May, according to Finnish
state-owned energy company Gasum, which could
lead to shortages in the summer.
EU revises its transition targets to cut
reliance on Russian gas
By Diane Elijah 18-May-22 10:58 LONDON
(ICIS)–The president of the European
Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on 18 May
presented the EU’s strategy to phase-out its
reliance on Russian gas.
Operating costs for LNG vessels rise on Ukraine
war
By Hal Brown 18-May-22 10:14 LONDON
(ICIS)–Operating expenses (OPEX) are rising
for LNG vessels crewed by Russians and
Ukrainians.
Austrian gas storage rules target dependence on
Russia
By Ed Martin 18-May-22 10:02 LONDON (ICIS)–The
Austrian government is seeking to rapidly
implement a raft of new storage regulations
aimed at boosting security of supply and
reducing dependence on Russian gas.
CropEnergies warns Germany on plans to reduce
biofuels production
By Stefan Baumgarten 18-May-22 08:54 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany must not reduce the use of
biofuels from arable crops, the CEO of biofuels
producer CropEnergies said on Wednesday, adding
his voice to the country’s latest
“fuel-versus-food” debate.
INSIGHT: Europe refineries and chemicals would
be hit by Russia oil, products
ban
By Will Beacham 18-May-22 07:14 BARCELONA
(ICIS)–European oil refineries and downstream
chemical plants will come under increasing
financial pressure from higher logistics costs
and crude oil prices if a proposed ban on
Russian oil and refined products comes into
force later this year.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil price bounces after weekly
downtrend
By Barney Gray 13-May-22 15:47 ONDON (ICIS) –
Oil prices enjoyed a bounce on Friday but ended
the day down week on week as bearish sentiment
continued to weigh on demand. In its May
report, the IEA forecast that world oil demand
growth will slow from 4.4m bbl/day in Q1 to
1.9m bbl/day in Q2 and will ease back to growth
of less than 0.5m bbl/day in the second half of
the year. For the full year, demand is now
expected to increase by 1.8m bbl/day to 99.4m
bbl/day.
Germany’s biofuels industry wary amid new
fuel-vs-food debate
By Stefan Baumgarten 13-May-22 14:22 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany’s biofuels industry is watching
closely as rising food prices have sparked a
new “fuel-vs-food” debate and may even bring an
end to racing on the country’s highways
(“Autobahn”) without speed limit.
US PVC gets inquiries from Ukraine after two
months of silence
By Bill Bowen 13-May-22 12:59 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US suppliers of polyvinyl chloride
(PVC) are getting inquiries from plastics
processors in Ukraine, a surprise development
in a war-torn market that has been almost
completely silent in recent weeks.
Germany’s raw material price index falls month
on month
By Stefan Baumgarten 13-May-22 11:37 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany’s raw material price index fell
12.0% month on month in April, following a
sharp March increase amid the Ukraine war,
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Institut (HWWI)
said.
Ukraine starts landmark commercial electricity
exports to Moldova
By Aura Sabadus 13-May-22 09:45 LONDON
(ICIS)–Ukrainian electricity company
Ukrhydroenergo started landmark commercial
exports to Moldova on 12 May, less than two
months after both countries synchronised with
the European power grid, the Ukrainian
electricity transmission system operator
Ukrenergo confirmed.
Chemicals production in EU, eurozone fell in
March in wake of Ukraine
invasion
By Morgan Condon 13-May-22 07:46
LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals production fell in the
EU and eurozone in March compared to the
previous month, according to the latest data
from the EU’s statistical agency Eurostat.
UK plastics export ban on Russia not likely to
impact producers – trade
group
By Tom Brown 13-May-22 07:16 LONDON (ICIS)–The
British Plastics Federation (BPF) on Friday
backed the UK government’s plans to ban exports
of plastics and chemicals and impose import
tariffs on certain products to Russia.
Asia
petrochemical supplies rise as China exports
grow amid weak yuan
By Fanny Zhang 13-May-22 16:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical markets are being
weighed down by growing supply, with China
exporting more products – spurred by the weak
yuan and poor domestic demand amid lockdowns.
INSIGHT: Indonesia
consumer demand at risk; may not prolong CPO
export ban
By Pearl Bantillo 13-May-22 12:00
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesia’s consumer demand
recovery is being threatened by elevated
commodity prices, with April inflation
exceeding the 3% mark, while the government has
taken to banning exports of crude palm oil
(CPO) and its derivatives to ease surging
prices of domestic cooking oil.
Asia
fatty acids remain soft on China lockdowns and
Indonesia export ban
uncertainty
By Helen Yan 13-May-22 15:05 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s fatty acids market is likely to
remain soft in the near term, due to the
economic slowdown in China and the expected
removal of Indonesia’s export ban on crude palm
oil (CPO) sometime in May.
Asia’s BD spot
discussions see uptick on prompt demand, but
outlook still clouded
By Ai Teng Lim 13-May-22 14:49 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Discussions in Asia’s spot butadiene
(BD) market took a bullish turn this week, as
buying interest for prompt delivery supplies
picked up alongside some production hiccups.
Gazprom faces $12bn bill and penalties if it
fails to pay for Ukraine transit –
CEOs
By Aura Sabadus 11-May-22 14:25 LONDON
(ICIS)–Russia’s Gazprom could face a $12bn
bill related to an old arbitration claim and
additional multi-million dollar penalties if it
refuses to pay for the gas transiting Ukraine
to Europe.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil rallies on improved
sentiment after early-week
losses
By Barney Gray 11-May-22 14:10 LONDON
(ICIS)–Oil prices recovered ground on
Wednesday as the EU sought unanimous support
over its decision to ban Russian oil imports.
INSIGHT: Can US, global economies avoid
recession amid a whirlwind of
headwinds?
By Joseph Chang 11-May-22 12:10 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–Can the US and major economies around
the world avoid a recession in the face of what
can only be called a whirlwind of headwinds?
Europe naphtha refinery margins stay pressured,
but gasoline spikes to multiyear
highs
By Shruti Salwan 11-May-22 11:59 LONDON
(ICIS)–European naphtha market fundamentals
remain exceptionally weak amid improved
availability and weakening feedstock demand
capping any major upsides posed by falling ICE
Brent crude oil futures and high gasoline
refinery margins.
Second FSRU will double the Netherlands’ LNG
regas capacity by Q3 ’22
By Victoria Tchen 11-May-22 11:37 LONDON
(ICIS)–Dutch gas infrastructure company
Gasunie announced on 10 May it has signed a
five-year binding contract for the lease of a
floating storage regasification unit (FSRU)
from US LNG company New Fortress Energy.
Council of the EU agrees position on new gas
storage rules
By Diane Elijah 11-May-22 11:16 LONDON
(ICIS)–On 11 May, the Council of the EU
adopted its position on the new EU gas storage
rules . This means negotiations with the
European Parliament to agree on the final text
of the new rules can now start.
Bulgaria holds LNG supply talks with US;
expects deliveries from 1
June
By Luka Dimitrov 11-May-22 11:06 LONDON
(ICIS)–Importing US LNG could bring cheaper
gas prices for Bulgarian consumers than signing
a new long-term pipeline contract with Russian
state supplier Gazprom.
Germany introduces law to speed up LNG project
development as pivot away from Russian gas
gathers pace
By Arlind Neziri 11-May-22 10:55 LONDON
(ICIS)–The German government on Tuesday
announced it was introducing the LNG
Acceleration Act as it continues its push to
diversify its supply away from Russian gas.
Austria to buy up to 1.4bcm of gas with federal
funds to build strategic
stocks
By Edward Martin 11-May-22 10:42 LONDON
(ICIS)–Austrian operator Gas Grid Management
(AGGM) on 10 May launched a tender to procure
12.6TWh – or roughly 1.2-1.4 billion cubic
metres (bcm) depending on calorific value – of
gas with federal funding.
PCK Schwedt faces uncertain future as Germany
moves to ban Russian oil
By Stefan Baumgarten 11-May-22 10:28 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany’s PCK Schwedt refinery faces an
uncertain future as the nation firmly supports
the proposed EU embargo on Russian oil.
US natural gas futures scale to historic highs
in volatile trading
By Ruth Liao 11-May-22 09:26 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Uncertainty on timing of supply has
driven the volatility in US gas futures, as the
Henry Hub front-month contract soared to new
historic highs on 5 May, only to crash lower
for two sessions and rebound.
UK targets chems, plastics trade in latest
Russia sanctions
By Tom Brown 11-May-22 08:32 LONDON (ICIS)–The
UK’s latest round of sanctions on trade with
Russia targets chemicals trade flows, with
export bans and import tariffs announced this
week.
PODCAST: Ban on Russian crude, products would
disadvantage Europe refiners,
chemicals
By Will Beacham 11-May-22 08:22 BARCELONA
(ICIS)–A ban on Russian imports of oil and
refined products in Europe would increase
logistics costs and exclude refineries and
integrated chemical producers from deeply
discounted crude oil.
Russia declines to reroute Sokhranivka gas
flows after Ukraine’s force
majeure
By Aura Sabadus 11-May-22 06:11 LONDON
(ICIS)–The European benchmark ICIS TTF firmed
at the open on 11 May as natural gas flows from
Russia to Ukraine over the Sokhranivka border
point ceased, following the 10 May declaration
of force majeure by grid operator GTSOU.
China
petrochemicals stay soft in April; demand
concerns remain
By Yvonne Shi 10-May-22 16:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets remained
soft in April, weighed down by COVID-related
lockdowns which will continue to dampen demand
in the near term.
Asian
polyacetal spot discussions stable amid mixed
demand outlook
By Ai Teng Lim 10-May-22 13:37 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Discussions for Asian exports of
polyacetals (POM) have been rangebound this
week, but it remains to be seen how the
regional demand-supply balance may shift if
various geopolitical issues, like the
Russia-Ukraine turmoil and the COVID-19
lockdowns in China, stretch longer than
expected.
Asia naphtha
market contango deepens, China lockdowns curb
demand
By Melanie Wee 10-May-22 12:45 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia naphtha markets are under pressure
from downbeat demand amid persistent lockdowns
in China, exacerbated by poor downstream
margins.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil price rallies further as
tight supply concerns mount
By Barney Gray 06-May-22 14:06 LONDON
(ICIS)–Oil prices continued their rally on
Friday as worries over global economic growth
were trumped by tighter supply concerns.
Outlook for ammonium sulphate remains bright
through Q2 – AdvanSix
By Al Greenwood 06-May-22 13:27 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–The outlook for ammonium sulphate
should remain bright through the peak of the
demand season in the second quarter, the CEO of
US producer AdvanSix said.
EU gas strategy to be presented in the second
half of May
By Diane Elijah 06-May-22 13:03 LONDON
(ICIS)–The European Commission plans to adopt
its REPowerEU strategy to end the EU’s reliance
on Russian fossil fuels on 18 May, subject to
confirmation nearer the time, a spokesperson
for the commission told ICIS.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil price gains on proposed EU
embargo on Russian crude
By Barney Gray 06-May-22 09:03 LONDON
(ICIS)–Oil prices consolidated gains on
Thursday as further details emerged regarding
the EU proposed ban on Russian crude.
INSIGHT: Ukraine war hurts Europe chemicals,
alters patterns of trade
By Will Beacham 06-May-22 08:29 BARCELONA
(ICIS)–Europe’s chemical industry faces
multiple headwinds which could see it lose out
to other regions, and lead to more sourcing
from further afield by downstream customers and
distributors.
France likely to remain
net power importer until nuclear availability
rises substantially
By Karishma Sadanandan 06-May-22 15:33
LONDON (ICIS)–France is unlikely to regain its
status as a net exporter of power until such a
time as nuclear availability rises closer to
historic seasonal norms.
SE
Asia biodiesel sales weak on poor
demand
By Felicia Loo 06-May-22 14:46 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The southeast Asian palm methyl ester
(PME) biodiesel market remained in weak demand
territory, amid poor uptake from Europe and
China.
Germany’s Evonik Q1 net
income rises amid higher selling
prices
By Nurluqman Suratman 06-May-22 14:16
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Evonik’s net income rose by
around 69% year on year in the first quarter of
this year amid higher selling prices at its
performance materials and specialty additives
businesses, the German specialty chemicals
maker said on Friday.
Asia
glycerine gains on demand; arbitrage window to
Europe opens
By Helen Yan 06-May-22 14:04 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s spot glycerine prices increased
on the back of improving demand, with the
arbitrage window to Europe expected to remain
open in the near term.
Trinseo expects Q2
earnings to resemble Q1
By Al Greenwood 06-May-22 09:54 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US-based styrenics and engineered
materials producer Trinseo expects its
second-quarter earnings to be similar to those
in the first quarter, the CEO said on Thursday.
China’s propylene market
in stalemate on strong costs, weak
demand
By Yi Liang 06-May-22 13:35 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Propylene prices in China’s Shandong
province fluctuated in a narrow range in late
April on cost pressures and bearish downstream
demand, after rallying from the recent low seen
on 17 March, alongside the crude slumps.
INSIGHT: Crude-led
inflation surge sparks global monetary
tightening
By Nurluqman Suratman and Pearl Bantillo
05-May-22 18:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Strong crude
prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war have been
fuelling unprecedented spikes in inflation,
which major economies around the world set out
to tame by raising interest rates, some more
aggressively than others, while a few are
hoping to wait it out as much as possible.
China’s PP futures surge
2.51% on rising crude
futures
By Zhibo Xiao 05-May-22 15:59 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s polypropylene (PP) futures
prices rose by 2.51% on Thursday on the back of
rising crude futures values.
British gas NBP prompt to
deliver below May ’22 on oversupply
risk
By Kaja Sillett 05-May-22 13:00 LONDON
(ICIS)–LNG arrivals, mild forecasts and high
storage fullness should see British gas prompt
products remain below front-month indications
at the NBP through the rest of May, after
flipping beneath in April.
Shell
Q1 chemicals earnings rise 49.6% despite lower
sale volumes
By Nurluqman Suratman 05-May-22 14:53
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell’s chemicals and
products unit posted a 17.7% year-on-year
increase in its first-quarter adjusted earnings
before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation (EBITDA), despite lower chemical
sales volumes, the energy firm said on
Thursday.
S
Korea’s Kumho Petrochemical Q1 net profit falls
22%; sales up 19%
By Pearl Bantillo 04-May-22 17:42
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean synthetic rubber
giant Kumho Petrochemical reported on Wednesday
a 22% year-on-year decline in first-quarter net
profit despite a double-digit sales growth.
Philippines’ Petron Q1
profit surges; petrochemical sales up
30%
By Pearl Bantillo 04-May-22 13:54
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Petron’s first-quarter net
profit more than doubled year on year to pesos
(Ps) 3.6bn ($69m) on the back of strong crude
prices, the Philippines’ sole refiner said on
Wednesday.
Oil
rises more than $1/bbl on supply worries; China
woes cap gainsBy Nurluqman
Suratman 04-May-22 12:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil
prices rose by more than $1/bbl on Wednesday on
concerns over tight supply after industry data
showed a drop in US crude and fuel inventories
last week, but worries over poor manufacturing
data from China capped gains.
Methanex stands to
benefit from market impacts of Ukraine
war
By Stefan Baumgarten 28-Apr-22 15:22
TORONTO (ICIS)–Methanex is benefiting from the
market-related impacts of the ongoing Ukraine
war and the sanctions imposed on Russia, the
CEO of the Canada-based international methanol
producer said on Thursday.
Thai
SCG Q1 net profit falls 41% on chemical margin
squeeze
By Pearl Bantillo 28-Apr-22 14:59
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai conglomerate Siam Cement
Group’s (SCG) first-quarter net profit declined
by 41% year on year on squeezed chemical
margins due to high feedstock cost amid weak
China demand.
Asia
biodiesel buy/sell gap widens on CPO price
surge
By Felicia Loo 28-Apr-22 16:45 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s palm methyl ester (PME)
biodiesel faces a gaping buy/sell gap, a trend
expected to persist after Indonesia announced
its ban on feedstock crude palm oil exports.
Asia
palm shipping market cautious after Indonesia’s
export ban
By Luffy Wu 28-Apr-22 16:25 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asia palm shipping market is taking
a cautious stance after Indonesia announced an
export ban from 28 April on domestic cooking
oil and refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD)
palm olein, with an extension of the ban to
crude palm oil (CPO).
Tight
fuel ethanol supply to SE Asia persists; spot
prices firm
By Bonnie Yin 28-Apr-22 16:24 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Import supply of fuel ethanol in
southeast (SE) Asia tightened on limited
feedstock availability and improved demand from
other regions, with market indications higher.
Asia
Group II base oils supply short in Q2, China
demand stifled on lockdowns
By Matthew Chong 28-Apr-22 15:12 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s Group II base oils supply
is expected to remain tight for the rest of the
second quarter on reduced production.
Asia’s soap noodles to
see upward pressure as Indonesia extends export
ban to CPO
By Helen Yan 28-Apr-22 13:22 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s soap noodles market is expected
to see upward price pressure in the near term
following the announcement by Indonesian
authorities on 27 April, to extend
the export ban on cooking oil to include crude
palm oil (CPO) exports.
Asia
SBR spot discussions may waver with increased
China exports
By Ai Teng Lim 28-Apr-22 09:24 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian spot import prices for styrene
butadiene rubber (SBR) are losing some ground
as more, and competitively-priced, materials
emerged from China.
Europe petchems
face higher gas prices as Gazprom halts
supplies to Poland, Bulgaria
By Jonathan Lopez 27-Apr-22
11:50 MADRID (ICIS)–European
petrochemicals players could face even higher
gas prices after Russia’s state-owned Gazprom
said it was halting deliveries to Poland and
Bulgaria.
Natural gas prices shot up nearly 20% in
European morning trading after Russia demanded
its gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria are
paid for in roubles (Rb) instead of US dollars.
Bulgaria’s gas supply also to be halted
from Russia, following
Poland
By Ruth Liao, Aura Sabadus 27-Apr-22
03:22 HOUSTON AND LONDON (ICIS)-Bulgaria’s
gas supply from Russian producer Gazprom will
be suspended starting 27 April, according to a
statement from the country’s energy minister on
26 April.
This follows earlier news from Poland’s PGNiG
that Gazprom was also suspending its volumes
through the Yamal pipeline.
The Bulgarian energy minister’s statement said
state company Bulgargaz and Bulgarian Energy
Holding (BEH) found that the Russian decree to
pay in roubles was not in line with their
expiring contract and posed significant risks
to the country. The statement said the ministry
of energy, BEH and transporter Bulgartransgaz
have taken measures to make alternative gas
supply arrangements and no restrictive measures
would be required for the country’s
consumption.
Asia’s volatile supply
conditions for caustic soda may persist amid
China lockdowns
By Jonathan Chou 27-Apr-22 15:20 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s supply conditions for liquid
caustic soda could remain unpredictable in the
near term amid uncertain supply conditions
caused by continued lockdowns in China.
France’s Air Liquide Q1
revenue rises 29.1% on surge in energy
prices
By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Apr-22 15:20
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Air Liquide’s revenue rose by
29% year on year in the first quarter of this
year, reflecting the sharp rise in energy
prices contractually passed on to Large
Industries customers, the French industrial
gases and services firm said on Wednesday.
Japan’s Toyota FY2021
global output surges, domestic production
slumps
By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Apr-22 15:05
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s automaker Toyota on
Wednesday said that its worldwide production
surged to 8.57m units in the year ending 31
March 2022 but domestic output slumped to a
45-year low.
Norway’s Yara Q1 net
income surges on higher
prices
By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Apr-22 14:47
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Yara’s net income surged to
$947m in the first quarter of this year,
reflecting higher selling prices which more
than offset higher natural gas costs, the
Norwegian fertilizer major said on Wednesday.
Indonesia’s ban on RBD
palm olein to see limited impact on
oleochemical market
By Helen Yan 27-Apr-22 12:25 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Indonesia’s ban on domestic cooking oil
and refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm
olein is expected to have limited impact on the
oleochemical market as players adopt a
wait-and-see stance.
INSIGHT: China PP exports
to rise in May on new start-ups, stronger US
dollar
By Lucy Shuai 27-Apr-22 12:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s polypropylene (PP) imports and
exports both fell in the first quarter of 2022.
The volume of imports may remain low, but
exports are likely to rise in the near term.
Asia
MPG sentiment to weaken further amid sellers’
competition
By Jasmine Khoo 27-Apr-22 11:34 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian market sentiment for
monopropylene glycol (MPG) in May is poised to
weaken from a persistently widening gap between
Chinese origin industrial-grade propylene
glycol (PGI) cargoes and those of other
regional origin.
China’s April
Group II base oils imports expected to slump on
negative margins
By Whitney Shi 26-Apr-22 18:20 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s Group II base oils imports
started to drop in March and are expected to
fall sharply in April, in response to deeper
negative import margins from March-April.
SE
Asia-China methanol arbitrage window opens,
demand uncertain
By Keven Zhang 26-Apr-22 13:42 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Losses in the key China market exerted
downward pressure on methanol prices in
southeast Asia, as the arbitrage window between
the two regions opened.
Northeast Asia Power
Play: The struggle between nuclear, coal and
gas generation at record LNG
prices
By Alex Siow 26-Apr-22 12:44 In the face
of record high LNG spot prices – and strong
prices across commodities – ICIS have noticed
that the three major baseload fuel of nuclear,
coal and LNG seemed to be struggling to meet
demand. In Japan and South Korea, the
much-needed additional nuclear generation, has
again been delayed while gas and coal ability
to respond is limited.
Global EDC supply may
stay tight despite rising Asian
availability
By Jonathan Chou 26-Apr-22 12:29 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–While spot ethylene dichloride (EDC)
supply within Asia may increase, availability
from the US and Europe is expected to remain
curtailed due to an ongoing force majeure
declaration and higher production costs
respectively.
Netherlands working on Russian fuel
independence by end of 2022
By Arlind Neziri 25-Apr-22 11:27 LONDON
(ICIS)–The Dutch government is working on
making the Netherlands independent from Russian
fossil fuels by the end of 2022, according to a
22 April announcement.
Oil flows ongoing despite Bryansk explosions –
trader
By Richard Price 25-Apr-22 07:08 LONDON
(ICIS)–Explosions shook two oil facilities in
the western Russian city of Bryansk early on
Monday, home to a section of the Druzhba
pipeline – a key export route for Russian crude
headed to Europe.
German regulator begins gas consumption survey
to prepare for supply
shortages
By Eduardo Escajadillo 22-Apr-22 12:39 LONDON
(ICIS)–The German Federal Network Agency
(BNetzA) is to start gathering data from grid
operators and large consumers in the THE market
area, as a part of the first early warning
level of the country’s gas emergency plan , the
regulator announced on 21 April.
UK grid constraints could limit export
potential to Europe
By Rob Dalton 22-Apr-22 12:29 LONDON (ICIS)–UK
grid and export constraints could limit the
country’s ability to maximise its potential as
an LNG import location for onward supply to
Europe this summer, as the continent strives to
meet EU-proposed storage obligations by autumn.
Danish storage to lean on tight German
supply
By Daniel Muir 22-Apr-22 11:49 LONDON
(ICIS)–Danish gas stores may be facing a
175mcm gap going into gas winter, according to
ICIS analysis.
India market softens on Russian supplies, China
lockdown
By Keven Zhang 22-Apr-22 07:22 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Trades for methanol into India were
concluded at lower levels, with extensive
volumes of Russian spot cargoes arriving in
May.
Eurozone manufacturing nearly stalls in April
as war worsens bottlenecks
By Jonathan Lopez 22-Apr-22 05:56 MADRID
(ICIS)–Manufacturing activity across the
eurozone nearly stalled in April as supply
chain bottlenecks worsened because of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the
S&P Global PMI index.
INSIGHT: Upstream, energy volatility drives
demise of the quarterly
contract
By Will Beacham 22-Apr-22 05:26 BARCELONA
(ICIS)–A large scale switch from quarterly to
monthly contracts is under discussion in
Europe, driven by extreme volatility in
upstream feedstock and energy costs.
China
firms eyed as Shell markets its share in
Sakhalin-2 LNG project
By Roman Kazmin 22-Apr-22 15:55 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The share of Shell’s stake in the
Sakhalin Energy Sakhalin-2 LNG project in the
Russian far east could be sold to Chinese
energy companies, a Moscow-based source
confirmed to ICIS on 22 April.
Asia
PBT demand tepid, margins stay
tight
By Clive Ong 22-Apr-22 11:52 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asian polybutylene terephthalate
(PBT) market remains under downward pressure
with demand on the wane, while sellers expect
limited improvement in margins for the near
term.
US
PPG Q1 income falls on higher costs, supply
chain disruptions and geopolitical
impacts
By Adam Yanelli 21-Apr-22 16:26 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US PPG saw a decrease in year-on-year
income for Q1 on higher costs, ongoing supply
chains constraints, the initial impacts from
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and increasing
COVID-19 restrictions in China, the paints and
coatings producer said on Thursday.
INTERVIEW: Chemicals
M&A activity to slow on Russia/Ukraine war,
inflation impact – banker
By Joseph Chang 21-Apr-22 15:48 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–Chemicals mergers and acquisitions
(M&A) activity in 2022 will likely slow
from the strong pace in 2021 on heightened
energy volatility and economic uncertainty from
the Russia/Ukraine war along with higher
interest rates and other factors, an investment
banker said on Thursday.
INSIGHT: Early US chem
earnings show resilience amid
war
By Al Greenwood 21-Apr-22 11:10 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US chemical earnings covering the first
months of 2022 have shown resilience, and
companies have seen demand hold up despite
inflation and the start of Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine.
Dutch
AkzoNobel Q1 profit shrinks 29% amid supply
chain disruptions
By Pearl Bantillo 21-Apr-22 15:17
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–AkzoNobel’s first-quarter net
profit fell by 29% year on year as sales
volumes dipped 7% due to continued supply
constraints, with negative impact from the
Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-19 restrictions in
China
Indian NBR import
discussions gain on supply
constraints
By Ai Teng Lim 21-Apr-22 15:50 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Indian import discussions for
acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber (NBR) are
gaining ground, as cargo availabilities of
deep-sea origin dwindle, prompting buyers with
concrete requirements to raise bids and secure
replacement volumes from Asia.
China’s offshore oil
giant CNOOC shares gain 28% at Shanghai
debut
By Fanny Zhang 21-Apr-22 16:39 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The share price of China’s biggest
offshore oil producer, CNOOC, gained 27.7% over
their initial public offering (IPO) of yuan
(CNY) 10.8/share at their debut on China’s
A-share market, in contrast to a 2.3% slump in
the Shanghai composite index on Thursday.
INSIGHT: Will growing US LNG exports erode
petchem feedstock advantage?
By Joseph Chang 20-Apr-22 14:18 NEW YORK
(ICIS)–It was back in 2013 at the start of the
US liquefied natural gas (LNG) building boom
when several US chemical and other
manufacturing company executives came out
against exports, arguing that the country would
be shipping away its feedstock advantage
overseas.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil prices volatile as demand
concerns dominate sentiment
By Barney Gray 20-Apr-22 14:11 LONDON
(ICIS)–Oil prices were in negative territory
for most of Wednesday, spurred by weak demand
signals from the US Energy Information Agency
(EIA) offsetting bullish supply indicators.
However, a late rally left crude prices
comparatively flat on the day.
ICIS VIEW: UK can become key LNG conduit for
continent but faces capacity
restrictions
By Rob Dalton 20-Apr-22 10:58 LONDON
(ICIS)–The UK has emerged as a strong
contender to be a key supplier of gas to
mainland Europe this summer as infrastructure
constraints combine with new EU storage
obligations and favourable locational spreads.
Russia eases restrictions on fertilizer
exports
By Deepika Thapliyal 20-Apr-22 10:00 LONDON
(ICIS)–In Russia, the government has eased
restrictions on fertilizer exports by raising
export quotas for producers by nearly 700,000
tonnes until 31 May, according to a resolution
signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
Germany on track to meet gas storage targets
with current injection rates
By Arlind Neziri 20-Apr-22 09:55 LONDON
(ICIS)–Current German gas injection rates,
which have seen fullness rise four percentage
points this month to 26%, could lead to Germany
meeting its mandated storage targets in August
and October, if sustained.
Germany’s producer prices jump 30.9% in March
on Ukraine war impact
By Stefan Baumgarten 20-Apr-22 09:04 LONDON
(ICIS)–Producer prices in Germany rose 30.9%
year on year in March, the highest increase
since 1949 when the country’s statistical
agency began tracking the data, it said.
Russia’s petchems, crude and LPG export duties
down in May
By Sergei Blagov 20-Apr-22 06:09 MOSCOW
(ICIS)–Russia’s export duties levied on some
petrochemicals products and crude oil will
decrease in May.
EU car sales fall in March as war in Ukraine
impacts auto production
By Morgan Condon 20-Apr-22 06:08 LONDON
(ICIS)–Car sales in the EU fell in March and
for the first quarter overall compared to the
previous year, the European Automobile
Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) said.
France’s chemicals sales up 6% in 2021 but
slowdown expected on energy costs, geopolitical
woes
By Jonathan Lopez 20-Apr-22 05:49 MADRID
(ICIS)–France’s chemicals sales – including
pharmaceuticals – rose by 6% in 2021, year on
year, to €69bn, the country’s trade group
France Chimie said .
Malaysia exports more palm oil in Q1 on
sunflower oil disruption
By Helen Yan 20-Apr-22 03:35 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Supply disruption of edible vegetable
sunflower oil due to the Russia-Ukraine
conflict and restrictions on palm oil exports
to the US have seen Malaysia diversifying and
increasing its palm oil exports to other
countries and regions.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Crude plummets on fears of lower
growth forecasts
By Cecilia Barreiro 19-Apr-22 14:08 LONDON
(ICIS) – Oil prices eroded from Monday’s rally
on concerns over demand growth after the IMF
said the global economy will strongly
decelerate in 2022 because of Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine. These projections were enough to
offset bullish pressures stemming from a wave
of closures at Libya’s oilfields and the
reopening of China’s manufacturing plants
across Shanghai.
Germany’s Henkel prepares Russia exit amid
growing pressure on firms to
leave
By Stefan Baumgarten 19-Apr-22 12:32 LONDON
(ICIS)–Henkel is preparing to exit its
business in Russia, where it employs about
2,500 people, the Germany-based international
adhesives and detergents major said.
Gazprom’s gas production stable, European piped
exports drop in Q1 2022
By Diane Elijah 19-Apr-22 10:28 LONDON
(ICIS)–Russian producer Gazprom’s gas
production between 1 January and 15 April
amounted to 155.9 billion cubic metres (bcm),
or 1.3% more than in the same period last year,
the state-controlled company announced on its
Telegram channel.
INSIGHT: Record natgas prices are raising costs
for US chemical producers
By Al Greenwood 19-Apr-22 10:26 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–Prices for natural gas are hitting
highs not seen since 2008, raising feedstock
and energy costs for petrochemical producers.
Russian coal ban puts bullish pressure on
German gas Cal ‘23
By Eduardo Escajadillo 19-Apr-22 10:12 LONDON
(ICIS)–The EU ban on Russian coal imports may
support the Calendar Year 2023 contract on the
German THE hub, ICIS analysis shows.
Baltic states look to LNG in push to diversify
from Russian gas supply
By Daniel Muir 19-Apr-22 10:04 LONDON
(ICIS)–Latvia, Estonia and Finland would have
to collectively replace around 3.4 billion
cubic metres (bcm)/year of Russian piped gas if
they were to eliminate Russian imports.
Poland-Belarus border paraffin wax prices up,
deliveries from Russia drying
up
By Cameron Birch 19-Apr-22 10:03 LONDON
(ICIS)–Spot prices for semi-refined paraffin
wax at the Poland-Belarus border were assessed
higher by triple digits amid continued strong
levels of demand and a worsening supply
picture.
Supply chain woes
to worsen, high food prices potentially
‘tragic’ – ICIS economist
By Jonathan Lopez 19-Apr-22
15:05 MADRID (ICIS)–The war in Ukraine is
set to worsen supply chain woes for the rest of
2022 while the hike in food prices as
fertilizers values rocket could have “tragic”
consequences in emerging countries, according
to an economist at ICIS.
Kevin Swift, Senior Economist for Global
Chemicals at ICIS, said the EU’s proximity to
Russia puts the 27-country bloc at high risk of
an energy crisis if supplies of crude oil or
natural gas were to be halted.
Europe,
developing economies to bear brunt of Ukraine
war hit – IMF
By Jonathan Lopez 19-Apr-22
15:00 MADRID (ICIS)–European and
developing economies are to bear the brunt of
the economic hit caused by Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine as the world economy yet again
experiences “a major shock”, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.
In its April World Economic Outlook (WEO)
projections, the IMF sharply reduced its global
GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 0.8 percentage
points to 3.6%; the world economy grew by 6.1%
in 2021.
US gas futures
surge on supply concerns
By Ruth Liao 18-Apr-22 23:18 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–The US gas futures front-month contract
continued to gain upward momentum, as the May
’22 contract on the NYMEX broke through
$8.00/MMBtu on Monday during intraday trading.
The NYMEX front month settled at $7.82/MMBtu,
buoyed by supply concerns mainly from limited
upstream growth and facing multi-year lows in
storage levels.
Germany bets on floating LNG import terminals,
environmentalists sceptical
By Stefan Baumgarten 15-Apr-22 09:21 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany’s government is seeking to rent
floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) import
terminals to quickly move away from Russian gas
– but critics warn of a lack of transparency
and environmental impacts.
US natural gas reaches new record high on tight
supply
By Fauzeya Rahman 14-Apr-22 17:47 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US natural gas prices reached new
multi-year highs on Thursday as tight
production coupled with April weather-driven
demand boosted the Henry Hub benchmark.
US oil, natgas drillers add rigs as energy
prices continue to soar
By Adam Yanelli 14-Apr-22 15:22 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US oil and natural gas drillers each
added two new wells this week amid volatile
energy markets boosted by supply concerns.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil prices up on Russian
rhetoric
By Barney Gray 14-Apr-22 14:11 LONDON
(ICIS)–Crude prices were up as the impending
loss of up to 3m bbl/day of Russian output in
May offset bearish factors.
Europe plans to increase regasification
capacity as it pivots away from Russian
gas
By Hal Brown 14-Apr-22 11:11 LONDON
(ICIS)–Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
Europe has announced its intention to develop
an additional LNG import capacity of around
33mtpa with reports of new projects coming
through regularly.
Tightening supply may limit European gas
storage injections in April
By Gretchen Ransow 14-Apr-22 11:06 LONDON
(ICIS)–Constrained Norwegian supply and
limited wind generation are likely to cap
storage injections in the latter part of April.
France issues demand side response rules to
mitigate potential gas supply
disruptions
By Andrea Battaglia 14-Apr-22 11:03 LONDON
(ICIS)–The French transmission system operator
could ask large gas consumers with consumption
exceeding 5GWh per year – roughly 0.5million
cubic metres (mcm), including gas-fired power
plants and industrial consumers, to reduce or
fully halt their gas consumption in case of
extreme supply tightness, according to a new
law decree published on 8 April.
France’s new LNG project could curb interest in
MidCat pipeline
By Andrea Battaglia 14-Apr-22 10:59 LONDON
(ICIS)–As Europe seeks ways to reduce its
dependence on Russian gas, political leaders in
France and Spain recently mulled a revival of
the Midi-Catalunia (MidCat) pipeline project,
aiming to increase the interconnection capacity
of the Iberian Peninsula.
EU calls for full embargo of Russian energy,
fast-tracks adoption of new storage
rules
By Diane Elijah 14-Apr-22 10:26 LONDON
(ICIS)–The European Parliament called for
additional sanctions against Russia including
an immediate full embargo on Russian oil, coal,
gas and nuclear fuel, in a non-binding
resolution adopted with a vast majority on 7
April.
Europe’s gas-to-coal switch profitable despite
Russian coal ban
By Raymond Shi 14-Apr-22 10:15 LONDON
(ICIS)–Europe’s clean dark spreads are likely
to remain profitable enough to encourage
gas-to-coal fuel switching in the medium term,
despite an incoming blanket ban on coal imports
from Russia.
US New Fortress plans US Gulf Fast LNG
project
By Fauzeya Rahman 14-Apr-22 09:58 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–US developer New Fortress wants to
build a 2.8mtpa offshore LNG export plant in
the US Gulf and start operations by the first
quarter of 2023.
Covestro’s Steilemann warns of consequences of
embargo on Russian gas
By Nigel Davis 14-Apr-22 09:29 LONDON
(ICIS)–An immediate embargo on natural gas
from Russia would be short-sighted and threaten
entire production and supply chains and
thousands of jobs, Covestro CEO and VCI
president elect, Markus Steilemann, has warned.
Asia’s PBT holds steady
while demand remains tepid
By Clive Ong 14-Apr-22 17:14 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Asian polybutylene terephthalate
(PBT) market was stable amid thin trade. Demand
in Asia remains soft with uncertainty expected
to stay elevated in the near term.
NE
Asia ethylene downcast; China demand to stay
weak
By Yeow Pei Lin 14-Apr-22 12:03 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Northeast Asia’s spot ethylene prices
fell for a second week, hobbled by deeper
downstream output cuts in China amid
COVID-related logistic bottlenecks.
India
March exports hit record high; fertilizer
imports up eightfold
By Priya Jestin 14-Apr-22 16:19 MUMBAI
(ICIS)–India’s exports in March rose 19.8%
year on year to $42.2bn – exceeding the $40bn
mark for the first time – on continued increase
in demand for its engineering goods and
petroleum products.
Singapore tightens
monetary policy as inflation threatens
economy
By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Apr-22 14:01
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Monetary Authority of
Singapore (MAS) will allow the Singapore dollar
to appreciate against a basket of
trade-weighted currencies to tackle rising
domestic inflation, which threatens economic
growth this year.
Singapore Q1 GDP
moderates to 3.4% amid manufacturing
slowdown
By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Apr-22 10:46
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s economy grew by
3.4% year on year in the first quarter,
moderating from the 6.1% expansion in the
fourth quarter of 2021, amid a slowdown in
manufacturing, official advance estimates
showed on Thursday.
US natgas rises to just under $7.00/MMBtu on
supply concerns
By Ruth Liao 13-Apr-22 17:07 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US
gas futures soared nearly 5% higher on
Wednesday amid supply concerns, as the Henry
Hub front-month contract briefly crossed over
the $7.00/MMBtu mark during trading before
settling just below.
US crude futures surge $3.65/bbl on supply
concerns
By Ignacio Sotolongo 13-Apr-22 15:12 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–NYMEX WTI crude futures for May
delivery extended the previous session’s rally
and recouped all of the previous week’s losses,
settling at $104.25/bbl, up $3.65, as the loss
of Russian oil exports due to sanctions will
start impacting global supplies in May.
CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil prices continue firming on
the loss of Russian crude supplies in
May
By Barney Gray 13-Apr-22 14:22 LONDON (ICIS)–A
demonstrable lack of progress in ending the
Russia-Ukraine war has offset bearish US
inventory data, as the market braces itself for
the loss of up to 3m bbl/day from Russia in
May.
Grupa Azoty unaffected by EU sanctions on
stakeholder – company
By Will Conroy 13-Apr-22 10:35 LONDON
(ICIS)–Poland’s Grupa Azoty on Tuesday said in
a statement that sanctions imposed by the EU
and other western powers on Russian oligarch
Viatcheslav Kantor, who indirectly owns 19.82%
of the company, are not expected to have an
impact on its operations.
Crude demand hit by China lockdowns, Russian
supply to be 1.5m bbl/day lower in April –
IEA
By Jonathan Lopez 13-Apr-22 10:15 MADRID
(ICIS)–Severe lockdowns implemented in China
to contain the spread of the pandemic are set
to reduce global crude oil demand this year,
the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Canada’s central bank hikes key rate as Ukraine
war accelerates inflation
By Stefan Baumgarten 13-Apr-22 10:08 TORONTO
(ICIS)–Canada’s central bank on Wednesday
raised its target for the overnight lending
rate by 50 basis points, to 1.0% from 0.5%, and
said rates would need to be further increased
to curb rising inflation.
German institutes slash GDP forecast, Russian
gas halt would spark
recession
By Stefan Baumgarten 13-Apr-22 08:38 LONDON
(ICIS)–Leading German economic research
institutes have slashed their 2022 forecast for
the country’s economic growth – and are warning
that a sudden interruption of Russian gas
supplies would lead to a recession.
Russia’s naphtha exports down sharply in March
as buyers turn away – IEA
By Jonathan Lopez 13-Apr-22 06:51 MADRID
(ICIS)–Petrochemicals companies in Europe and
most major markets shunned naphtha from Russia
during March, as sanctions against the country
were announced, the International Energy Agency
(IEA) said.
Asia
MEG discussions slip to lowest in 2022 as
demand deteriorates
By Judith Wang 13-Apr-22 17:45 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG)
discussions slipped to their lowest levels
since the beginning of the year, as downstream
demand deteriorated amid further operation cuts
from major polyester producers.
Affordability could
derail the role of gas in India’s energy
transition
By Joachim Moxon 13-Apr-22 16:5 Winter is
over, but the start of spring has brought
little relief to a stretched global LNG market.
In late January, ICIS assessments for delivery
to India briefly touched below $20/MMBtu for
March delivery and this now seems as low as it
will get for spot prices in 2022.
Asia
naphtha jumps on crude oil gains; shrugs off
thin demand
By Melanie Wee 13-Apr-22 13:28 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha prices jumped on
Wednesday, tracking crude gains, but the market
is poised for volatility against a backdrop of
cautious demand as supply concerns loom.
US crude futures surge $6.31/bbl on OPEC
warning
By Ignacio Sotolongo 12-Apr-22 16:09
HOUSTON (ICIS)–NYMEX WTI crude futures for May
delivery settled at $100.60/bbl, up $6.31, in
response to OPEC’s monthly report warning that
Russian oil and gas exports will be impossible
to replace if sanctions for Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine target energy.
US to allow sales E15 gasoline this summer to
help reduce gasoline prices
By Adam Yanelli 12-Apr-22 15:51 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–The US plans to increase domestic fuel
supplies by authorizing E15 gasoline – gasoline
blended with 15% ethanol – to be sold this
summer.
German chems can cope without Russian coal –
VCI
By Stefan Baumgarten 12-Apr-22 11:49 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany’s chemical industry can cope
without supplies of coal from Russia, chemical
producers’ trade group VCI said.
Gas-to-coal fuel switching to remain profitable
despite Russian coal import
ban
By Raymond Shi 12-Apr-22 10:33 LONDON
(ICIS)–Clean dark spreads are likely to remain
profitable enough to encourage gas-to-coal fuel
switching in the medium term, despite an
incoming blanket ban on coal imports from
Russia.
Russian urea exports to Brazil halve in
Q1
By Deepika Thapliyal 12-Apr-22 10:23 LONDON
(ICIS)–In Brazil, imports of urea from Russia
declined 53% in the first quarter, while total
imports were at over 1.6m tonnes, down 17% from
nearly 2m tonnes in the same period of 2021,
according to the ICIS Supply and Demand
Database.
Germany’s March chem wholesale prices jump
40.1% on war impact
By Stefan Baumgarten 12-Apr-22 09:51 LONDON
(ICIS)–Chemical wholesale prices in Germany
kept rising sharply in March – 40.1% year on
year and 6.7% month on month – according to the
latest data from the country’s federal
statistics agency.
Ukraine crisis to hit global growth but
refinery margins soar in March –
OPEC
By Tom Brown 12-Apr-22 08:59 LONDON ICIS)–OPEC
on Tuesday revised down global GDP growth
expectations for the year from 4.2% to 3.9% on
the back of the invasion of Ukraine, while a
growing supply-demand imbalance drove refinery
margins to the highest levels since the
pandemic last month, according to the group.
PODCAST: Europe buyers look to Asia as
logistics crisis persists
By Will Beacham 12-Apr-22 08:05 BARCELONA
(ICIS)–Downstream customers in Europe are
seeking new supplies of chemicals from Asia as
they avoid high prices and Russian material,
but the global logistics crisis may persist for
the rest of the year.
Most European urea imports up in 2021; Russian
imports to fall on sanctions
By Deepika Thapliyal 12-Apr-22 07:00 LONDON
(ICIS)–Urea imports rose for most European
countries in 2021 despite prices being at
record highs, except for some including Spain
and the UK, which saw slight year-on-year
declines.
German economic sentiment sinks further in
April, stagflation on the horizon –
Zew
By Tom Brown 12-Apr-22 06:21 LONDON
(ICIS)–Expectations for Germany’s economic
growth sank further in April compared to the
previous month, with the assessment of future
prospects falling further and expectations that
the next half-year could see the country
descend into stagflation, institute Zew said.
Demand slowdown weighs on
Asia polyester talks; outlook
bearish
By Judith Wang 12-Apr-22 16:48 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The overall demand slowdown in China
has weighed on polyester discussions, while
major polyester producers in China are cutting
operations amid rising inventories and a
bearish market outlook.
China
petrochemicals supply chain struggles amid
pandemic curbs
By Fanny Zhang 12-Apr-22 14:33 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s entire petrochemical supply
chain is facing strong headwinds due to tough
pandemic-related restrictions in place at
various production hubs, including Shanghai.
Oil
rises more than $2/bbl on OPEC tight supply
warning
By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Apr-22 13:21
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices rose more than
$2/bbl on Tuesday, reversing sharp losses in
the previous session, after OPEC warned it
would not be able to replace supply lost from
Russia due to sanctions.
China
March vehicle markets slump; sales down 11.7%
on year
By Fanny Zhang 12-Apr-22 11:59 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s vehicle markets took hits from
increasing outbreaks of COVID-19 in March, with
sales down by 11.7% year on year to 2.23m and
production losing 9.1% to 2.24m units, official
industrial data showed on Monday.
US gas futures rise nearly 6%, hit highest
level since 2008
By Ruth Liao 11-Apr-22 17:21 HOUSTON (ICIS)–US
natural gas futures on the NYMEX scaled higher
to $6.64/MMBtu on Monday, the highest
front-month settlement for the Henry Hub
benchmark since October 2008.
US crude futures slide $3.97/bbl on length
liquidation
By Ignacio Sotolongo 11-Apr-22 15:13 HOUSTON
(ICIS)–NYMEX WTI crude futures for May
delivery settled at $94.29/bbl, down $3.97/bbl,
on market sentiment that the co-ordinated
effort by members of the International Energy
Agency (IEA) to release barrels from strategic
petroleum reserves will help alleviate the loss
of Russian barrels.
BASF projects Q1 profit drop on Wintershall Dea
Nord Stream 2 loan
write-downs
By Tom Brown 11-Apr-22 11:02 LONDON
(ICIS)–BASF’s first-quarter net income is
likely to fall substantially year on year,
largely on the back of impairments related to
its Wintershall Dea oil and gas joint venture
unit, particularly on loans to the
presently-halted Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the
Germany-based firm said.
OGE plans construction of pipeline link for
Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal
By Eduardo Escajadillo 11-Apr-22 10:59 LONDON
(ICIS)–Germany’s Open Grid Europe (OGE)
intends to complete the connection line for the
floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) at
Wilhelmshaven by the end of 2022, the company
announced over the weekend.
North Sea oil market slump challenges tight
supply narrative
By Richard Price 11-Apr-22 10:00 LONDON
(ICIS)–Crude oil’s meteoric rise to $140/bbl
after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pointed to
the tightest market in decades. However,
signals in the physical market and newly
emerging demand concerns have seen sentiment
reshape. The reality is that Russian crude has
still been finding its way into the European
refining ecosystem, but these volumes should
wane throughout April.
Dow acquires stake in LNG import terminal in
Stade, Germany
By Jonathan Lopez 11-Apr-22 09:51 MADRID
(ICIS)–Dow has acquired a stake in Hanseatic
Energy Hub GmbH (HEH), a consortium building a
liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on its
Stade facilities in Germany, the US chemicals
major said.
Suspended German coal phase-out could save 2bcm
of gas in 2023
By ICIS Editorial 11-Apr-22 09:09 LONDON
(ICIS)–Suspending Germany’s coal phase out by
two years would limit demand for natural gas by
2 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2023, according
to ICIS modelling.
Russia among top three urea exporters to the US
in January-February
By Deepika Thapliyal 11-Apr-22 08:17 LONDON
(ICIS)–In the US, urea imports were at 870,551
tonnes in January-February, up 16% from 749,060
tonnes in the same period of 2021, according to
the ICIS Supply and Demand Database.
INEOS calls on UK government to allow test
fracking site
By Tom Brown 11-Apr-22 07:02 LONDON
(ICIS)–INEOS has requested that the UK
government allow it to develop a shale gas test
site in the country, a year and a half after
writing down the value of its exploration
assets in the space after the country declared
a moratorium on fracking.
March
IPEX up 8.6% on firming prices in northeast
Asia, US Gulf
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 11-Apr-22
18:14 LONDON (ICIS)–The ICIS Petrochemical
Index (IPEX) rose by 8.6% month on month in
March, as rising feedstock crude oil and energy
prices pushed petrochemicals and plastics
prices higher globally.
Asian
MEK soars to new high on US, Europe
demand
By Julia Tan 11-Apr-22 17:46 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) import
markets continued to soar to new highs in the
week ended 8 April, as demand from the US and
Europe kept trading levels high and selling
pressure low despite tepid demand from Asia.
China
March petrochemicals track crude gains;
lockdowns keep output low
By Yvonne Shi 11-Apr-22 15:51 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s petrochemical markets mainly
tracked crude gains in March, with additional
upward pressure from tighter supply on reduced
local production due to pandemic-related
lockdowns.
Topic Page by Aura Sabadus and
Will Beacham. Additional
reporting by Richard
Ewing and Sophie
Udubasceanu. Maps and graphs by
Yashas Mudumbai.
23-May-2022
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