ICIS Chemical Foresight

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 13 June. Brazilian court orders end to six-month customs auditors' strike A Brazilian judge has ordered customs workers to end their nearly seven-month strike after the government argued the industrial action was causing financial harm as goods pile up at ports and customs facilities across the country. SHIPPING: May container ship arrivals fall at US ports of LA, LB, but on the uptick in June Arrivals of container ships fell in May at the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) amid a trade war between the US and China but has shown a slight uptick in June while the two nations continue to negotiate a trade deal. INSIGHT: Chems need more than cost cutting during multi-year slump Chemical companies can find more ways to grow profits beyond cost cutting as they enter another year of slow economic growth in the longest downturn in years. UPDATE: US chem shares sell off amid Israel, Iran attacks US-listed shares of chemical companies fell sharply on Friday and performed worse than the overall market following the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.

16-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at CEO concerns over tariff and trade wars. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

16-Jun-2025

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s DCM Shriram plans to acquire specialty chemicals producer Hindusthan Specialty Chemicals Ltd (HSCL) for Indian rupees (Rs) 3.75 billion ($44 million). “This move positions DCM Shriram for strategic expansion into the advanced materials segment, unlocking synergies with its existing chemicals portfolio,” the company said in a disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on 12 June. The acquisition of HSCL is expected to be completed by September, it added. HSCL has a facility at Jhagadia in the western Gujarat state which is located close to DCM Shriram’s existing chemicals complex. This will allow for quick integration and growth, DCM said. Apart from a 17,000 tonne/year liquid epoxy resin unit, HSCL also produces reactive diluents, hardeners, formulated resins and other products used in the aerospace, electronics, renewable energy, electric vehicles and defence sectors at the site. “This acquisition is a pivotal step in our chemicals growth strategy and a catalyst for DCM Shriram’s entry into advanced materials, which offers robust forward integration with our chlor-alkali platform, while positioning us at the intersection of India’s expanding presence in sunrise sectors like renewables, mobility, and aerospace,” DCM Shriram chairman and managing director Ajay Shriram said. DCM Shriram is a chlor-alkali producer in India with a combined production capacity of nearly 1 million tonnes/year at Jhagadia in Gujarat, and Kota in Rajasthan. In February 2024, the company had announced plans to invest Rs10 billion to set up a greenfield epoxy resins manufacturing plant. Separately, the company expects to begin operations at its 51,000 tonne/year epichlorohydrin (ECH) plant soon, a company source said. “The commissioning of the ECH plant has been delayed due to an issue in one of the equipment and was addressed by our technology suppliers,” he said. The ECH plant will be commissioned in phases, with the first phase of operations expected to begin this month, the company source said. ($1 = Rs86.05)

16-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 13 June. ESA ’25: Global sulphuric acid market seeking clarity on H2 supply securityOffer pricing remains stable-to-firm across the global sulphuric acid market as Q2 nears its end – although market players’ views are sharply divided on the supply outlook for the second half of 2025. Europe PS and EPS markets face long supply as demand remains stableEuropean polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene (EPS) markets are navigating a landscape characterized by long supply conditions and stable demand, which is expected to continue unchanged into Q3. Verbio to start up renewable chemicals plant next yearVerbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction in Germany is expected to start up in 2026, a company official told ICIS. Europe June epoxy stable to soft; summer could weigh on pricesEurope epoxy resins price discussions have been relatively stable for June so far,  but with some softening here and there, with ongoing margin challenges counterbalanced by subdued fundamentals. European jet fuel prices extend gains as demand recovers, capping supply dragEuropean jet fuel prices extended gains in the week to 11 June in response to a pick up in buying interest as seasonal demand gets underway. Markets slump, oil soars in wake of Iran strikesEurope chemicals stocks and equities markets fell in morning trading on Friday in the wake of Israel’s missile strikes across Iran, including nuclear facilities, with the prospect of additional attacks chilling sentiment.

16-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The global petrochemical industry is already battling a deep, structural downturn. While we've seen no impact on already dire polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) margins in northeast and southeast Asia from the trade war, the Israel-Iran crisis presents a new set of risks for polyolefins and all the other products. Today, I want to share a first pass at three headline scenarios for how this latest crisis could impact the global economy, and by extension, petrochemicals – Scenario 1: The Best-Case – De-escalation and Containment. International mediation leads to a swift reduction in direct confrontation. Retaliatory actions are limited, avoiding critical infrastructure. Diplomatic channels resume, potentially reigniting broader regional security talks. Oil Prices: Rapid return to pre-crisis levels; spikes short-lived. Inflation: Minimal sustained impact; stable energy costs. Supply Chains: Minor, localised disruptions; vital Strait of Hormuz remains secure. Investment: Quick rebound in confidence; risk assets recover. Scenario 2: The Medium-Case – Protracted Tensions and Proxy Conflicts Averted full-scale direct war, but high tensions persist. The region sees intensified "shadow wars" and proxy conflicts. Occasional targeted strikes or cyberattacks, but no full escalation. Diplomatic efforts are slow and largely ineffective. Oil Prices: Elevated and volatile due to persistent geopolitical risk. Inflation: Sustained upward pressure as higher energy costs feed into all sectors. Supply Chains: Increased shipping insurance, minor rerouting; higher logistics costs. Investment: Increased risk aversion; volatile equity markets; flight to safe havens. Scenario 3: The Worst-Case – Full-Scale Regional War & Strait of Hormuz Closure Direct military conflict spirals out of control, potentially drawing in other global powers. Iran close or severely disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Prices: Big surge to long-term historic highs. Inflation: Hyperinflationary pressures globally; severe cost-of-living crisis. Supply Chains: Widespread and severe paralysis of global trade; blockades, severe shortages. Global Recession/Depression: High probability of a severe global economic downturn. Financial Markets: Extreme volatility; sharp declines; systemic crisis risk. Conclusion: Understanding scenarios is crucial for strategic planning. Even "medium" level tensions will have significant, widespread consequences. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

16-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 13 June 2025. Asia-Europe VAM trade expansion driven by outages, US tariffs By Hwee Hwee Tan 13-Jun-25 15:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vinyl acetate monomer exports from Asia to Europe are on track for expansion during the second quarter, spurred by a push among traders to take positions before a regulatory quota waiving duties for imports into Europe is exhausted. Crude climbs more than 8% after Israeli strikes against targets in Iran By James Dennis 13-Jun-25 12:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Crude prices surged, with Brent peaking nearly $9/barrel higher early on Friday, after Israel attacked targets in Iran, raising fears of a major escalation in conflict in the Middle East and resultant disruptions to crude production and exports from that region. INSIGHT: India’s BIS deadline may reshape global PVC trade landscape By Aswin Kondapally 11-Jun-25 14:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is at a critical juncture in determining whether to implement or extend its Quality Control Orders (QCO) for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin sales under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Act, with the compliance deadline set for 24 June 2025. Asia crude glycerine offers fall as downstream ECH weakens in China By Helen Yan 12-Jun-25 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Offers for crude glycerine in Asia declined, weighed down by weakness in downstream epichlorohydrin (ECH) market and bearish sentiment. ICIS China Petrochemical Price index May average falls on weak demand By Yvonne Shi 11-Jun-25 13:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's average petrochemical prices in May eased by 0.62% month on month as easing trade war concerns was offset by continued weakness in demand. Indian refineries plan green hydrogen projects worth Rs2 trillion By Priya Jestin 11-Jun-25 12:24 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is currently planning green hydrogen initiatives worth around Indian rupees (Rs) 2 trillion ($23 billion), which include tenders for 42,000 tonne/year green hydrogen production by domestic oil refineries. INSIGHT: India’s BIS deadline may reshape global PVC trade landscape By Aswin Kondapally 11-Jun-25 14:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is at a critical juncture in determining whether to implement or extend its Quality Control Orders (QCO) for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin sales under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Act, with the compliance deadline set for 24 June 2025. China vessel age limit stalls prompt trades with India By Hwee Hwee Tan 11-Jun-25 13:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Prompt chemical tanker supply on China’s southbound trade lanes is expected to shrink following regulatory restrictions, constraining spot trades especially with India. INSIGHT: Hydrogen unlocking China's cement decarbonization potential By Patricia Tao 10-Jun-25 17:58 As China steps up efforts to meet its dual carbon targets, hydrogen is becoming a practical and strategic tool to cut emissions from the country’s highly carbon-intensive cement industry. INSIGHT: Countdown to China benzene futures debut: how will it affect the market? By Jenny Yi 10-Jun-25 17:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–On 14 May, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) issued a notice to solicit public opinions on proposed futures and options contracts for benzene along with the relevant rules. The deadline for feedback was 21 May 2025, marking the countdown to the launch of benzene futures and options in China. China's US exports to rebound on front-loading before Aug By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Jun-25 13:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's exports to the US are expected to rebound in June as exporters ramp up frontloading efforts before the 90-day trade truce between the two global economic superpowers expires in August. Asia, Mideast petrochemical markets brace for tough summer By Jonathan Yee 09-Jun-25 11:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tariff concerns and ample supply continue to exert pressure on petrochemical markets in both Asia and the Middle East, with regional demand staying weak, with consumption in India unlikely to pick up until September. INSIGHT: China polyester sector sees production cuts; tight supply boosts PTA/MEG By Cindy Qiu 09-Jun-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyester producers are facing mounting cost pressure, as domestic purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices reaped large gains after the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May 2025) on the back of tight supply.

16-Jun-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-listed shares of chemical companies fell sharply on Friday and performed worse than the overall market following the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv in a retaliatory attack that reportedly caused injuries, according to the Wall Street Journal. Most of the missiles were intercepted or fell short, according to Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, which reported the Israeli military. Earlier, Israeli warplanes attacked multiple sites in Iran. Following news of the attacks, the major US stock indices followed by ICIS fell, but not as sharply as shares of chemical companies. The following table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. Index 13-Jun Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 42,197.79 -769.83 -1.79% S&P 500 5,967.97 -68.29 -1.13% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 832.55 -12.02 -1.42% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 885.14 -15.59 -1.73% The following table shows the US-listed shares followed by ICIS. Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change AdvanSix 23.99 -0.49 -2.00% Avient 34.3 -1.42 -3.98% Axalta Coating Systems 28.79 -1.37 -4.54% Braskem 3.67 -0.07 -1.87% Chemours 10.98 -0.49 -4.27% Celanese 54.63 -2.24 -3.94% DuPont 66.87 -1.57 -2.29% Dow 29.9 -0.24 -0.80% Eastman 76.19 -1.93 -2.47% HB Fuller 54.16 -1.92 -3.42% Huntsman 10.9 -0.64 -5.55% Kronos Worldwide 6.23 -0.22 -3.41% LyondellBasell 60.1 -0.03 -0.05% Methanex 36 1.57 4.56% NewMarket 648.7 -6.24 -0.95% Olin 20.38 -0.67 -3.18% PPG 106.3 -5.73 -5.11% RPM International 108.08 -6.78 -5.90% Stepan 54.42 -1.26 -2.26% Sherwin-Williams 335.88 -20.32 -5.70% Tronox 5.56 -0.23 -3.97% Trinseo 3.4 0.02 0.59% Westlake 77.3 -1.32 -1.68% Methanex shares rose after it passed a regulatory milestone in its $2.05 billion purchase of the methanol business of OCI Global. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI crude futures both rose by nearly $4/bbl. US producers idled three oil drilling rigs, bringing the total to 439, the lowest figure since October 2021. EUROPEAN SHARES FELL EARLIER IN THE DAYEarlier, Europe chemicals stocks and equities markets fell in morning trading on Friday in the wake of Israel’s strikes across Iran, including nuclear facilities, with the prospect of additional attacks chilling sentiment. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on Friday that Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility had been struck in the first salvo of strikes that also hit residential areas as part of attacks on military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated on Friday that strikes will continue “for as many days as it takes” to remove nuclear enrichment facilities, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged the Iranian government not to respond. The IAEA noted on Thursday that Iran is potentially in breach of its non nuclear-proliferation agreements for the first time since the early 2000s, but Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the nuclear watchdog, attacked the strikes on Friday. “Nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances,” he said, noting that there is presently no elevation at the Natanz site. MARKETS Oil prices soared in the wake of the strikes, with Brent crude futures jumping nearly $5/barrel on Friday to $74.31/barrel, the highest level since April, while WTI futures were trading at $73.15/barrel, the highest since January. Equities slumped as commodities surged, with Asia bourses universally closing in the red and all key European stock indices trading down in morning trading. The STOXX 600 chemicals index was trading down over 1% as of 10:30 BST, in line with general markets, with stock prices for a third of the 21 component companies down 2-3%. The hardest-hit were Fuchs, LANXESS and Umicore, which saw stocks fall 3.72%, 3.24% and 2.97% compared to Thursday’s close. The situation has also had a dramatic impact on fertilizers markets, with Iran a key global exporter of urea, and some contacts reporting disruption in Israel’s supply of gas to Egypt. SHIPPING Shipping could also face further disruption, with the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) monitor publishing an advisory on Wednesday – before the start of the Israel  strikes – that increased Middle East military activity could impact on mariners. “Vessels are advised to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz with caution,” the watchdog said. Around 20% of global oil trade passes through along the Strait of Hormuz, and any move by Iran to block the route could have a huge impact on freight traffic that is still disrupted by firms avoiding the Red Sea in the wake of Houthi strikes. Activity in the Red Sea is understood to have subsided in recent weeks after a US-Houthi ceasefire but shipping firms remain leery of the route, and the attacks on Iran could further inflame tensions in the region. Higher risk and insurance price hikes could also drive shipping prices through the region steadily higher. The upward movement for shipping prices had showed signs of plateauing this week, with China-Europe and China-US route charge steady week on week as of 12 June after weeks of surges, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. Some freight indices continued to climb, however, with the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index up 9.6% as of 12 June, the highest level since October 2024. Thumbnail image: Iran Tehran Israel Strike – 13 June 2025. Iran's IRIB state TV reported explosions in areas of the capital of Tehran and counties of Natanz, Khondab and Khorramabad. (Xinhua/Shutterstock) Additional reporting by Tom Brown

13-Jun-2025

BARCELONA (ICIS)–The worst chemicals downturn in living memory is forcing ratings agencies to downgrade more companies,  raising fears of bankruptcies. Chemical company earnings have been bottom-of-cycle since 2023 Leverage (borrowing) is high compared to historical levels Low earnings increase pressure on leverage, raises risk of default Fitch has downgraded more chemical companies over last 12-18 months Extended trough in chemicals may lead to bankruptcies Operating rates have not recovered as they did after Global Financial Crisis Fitch expects gradual recovery from 2026 A lot more closures needed to rebalance market Ratings agencies look at company costs, strategies and compare to peers Diversification of geography and product helps manage risk In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Guillaume Daguerre who leads Europe chemicals for ratings agency Fitch, John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Click here to register for the ICIS/European Association of Chemical Distributors (Fecc) distributors CEO round table on Monday 16 June. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

13-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–The EU's trade surplus fell in April from the previous month, driven down by a sharp decline in the chemicals sector. The EU’s April trade balance fell to €7.4 billion, down from €35.5 billion in March, official data showed on Friday. “This drop was primarily driven by the contraction of the chemicals sector surplus, which fell from €41.6 billion to €20.4 billion – a reduction of over 50%,” statistics agency Eurostat said in a statement. Source: Eurostat In the eurozone, the trade surplus fell in April to €9.9 billion, down from €37.3 billion in March. Chemicals almost halved to €22.1 billion from €42.8 billion. On a year-on-year basis, the April trade surplus was lower in both blocs but by a lesser magnitude, attributed to declines in the machineries and vehicles sector. The EU chemicals trade balance was slightly higher in April, increasing to €20.4 billion from €19.5 billion in the same month of 2024. Source: Eurostat Prices for Europe chemicals fell in April on weak demand and uncertainty over US trade tariffs.

13-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe chemicals stocks and equities markets fell in morning trading on Friday in the wake of Israel’s missile strikes across Iran, including nuclear facilities, with the prospect of additional attacks chilling sentiment. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on Friday that Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility had been struck in the first salvo of strikes that also hit residential areas as part of attacks on military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated on Friday that strikes will continue “for as many days as it takes” to remove nuclear enrichment facilities, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged the Iranian government not to respond. The IAEA noted on Thursday that Iran is potentially in breach of its non nuclear-proliferation agreements for the first time since the early 2000s, but Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the nuclear watchdog, attacked the strikes on Friday. “Nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances,” he said, noting that there is presently no elevation at the Natanz site. MARKETS Oil prices soared in the wake of the strikes, with Brent crude futures jumping nearly $5/barrel on Friday to $74.31/barrel, the highest level since April, while WTI futures were trading at $73.15/barrel, the highest since January. Equities slumped as commodities surged, with Asia bourses universally closing in the red and all key European stock indices trading down in morning trading. The STOXX 600 chemicals index was trading down over 1% as of 10:30 BST, in line with general markets, with stock prices for a third of the 21 component companies down 2-3%. The hardest-hit were Fuchs, LANXESS and Umicore, which saw stocks fall 3.72%, 3.24% and 2.97% compared to Thursday’s close. The situation has also had a dramatic impact on fertilizers markets, with Iran a key global exporter of urea, and some contacts reporting disruption in Israel’s supply of gas to Egypt. SHIPPING Shipping could also face further disruption, with the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) monitor publishing an advisory on Wednesday – before the start of the Israel  strikes – that increased Middle East military activity could impact on mariners. “Vessels are advised to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz with caution,” the watchdog said. Around 20% of global oil trade passes through along the Strait of Hormuz, and any move by Iran to block the route could have a huge impact on freight traffic that is still disrupted by firms avoiding the Red Sea in the wake of Houthi strikes. Activity in the Red Sea is understood to have subsided in recent weeks after a US-Houthi ceasefire but shipping firms remain leery of the route, and the attacks on Iran could further inflame tensions in the region. Higher risk and insurance price hikes could also drive shipping prices through the region steadily higher. The upward movement for shipping prices had showed signs of plateauing this week, with China-Europe and China-US route charge steady week on week as of 12 June after weeks of surges, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. Some freight indices continued to climb, however, with the Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index up 9.6% as of 12 June, the highest level since October 2024. Focus article by Tom Brown Thumbnail image: Iran Tehran Israel Strike – 13 June 2025. Iran's IRIB state TV reported explosions in areas of the capital of Tehran and counties of Natanz, Khondab and Khorramabad. (Xinhua/Shutterstock)

13-Jun-2025