Image Description

ICIS Supply and Demand Database

Identify opportunities, mitigate risk and validate your growth strategies

An end-to-end view of supply and demand across multiple markets

Optimise sales planning, production and investment with a transparent view of the Chemicals supply chain showing capacity, balanced and integrated between upstream and downstream, as far ahead as 2050. Access supply, demand and trade flow data updated daily, with monthly and quarterly round-ups, for over 100 commodities in 175 countries.

Gain a clear understanding of the competitive landscape, with current and planned production capability segmented by plant, company, country or region. Import, export and consumption volumes are combined with short-term forecasts, margin analytics, pricing, plant cost evaluations and disruption tracking to help you stay one step ahead.

Identify new business opportunities with up-to-date information on plant ownership and technology, on a subsidiary and affiliate basis, from ICIS’ unrivalled network of chemicals experts embedded in key global markets.

Why use ICIS Supply and Demand Database?

Increase profitability and maximise ROI

Safeguard or increase margins and make better-informed purchasing decisions, with accurate and complete data on market dynamics and competitor behaviour.

Plan ahead with confidence

Discern long-term trends built on historical trade flow  data going back to 1978, and respond swiftly to market conditions if they change in unforeseen ways.

Optimise new business

Understand demand for your product, with a clear picture of competitors’ current and planned production capacity.

Validate targets with independent data

Support your investment decisions with ICIS’ reliable market data and insight.

Create agile purchasing strategies

Track changes in capacity, production and trade flows to keep ahead of market trends, and revise purchasing strategy accordingly.

Maximise efficiency

Save time strategy planning with all your market drivers, built on the latest outlook for supply and demand, visible in one place.

Quantify value

Understand value chain dynamics, with integrated analysis of upstream / downstream supply and demand.

Mitigate risk

Anticipate and minimise exposure to changes in imports, exports, supply and demand with forecasts and independent analysis.

ICIS News

LOGISTICS: Asia-US container rates fall; tanker rates stable to softer; bridge collapse causing delays

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shipping container rates continue to fall, liquid chemical tanker rates are stable to softer, and the bridge collapse at the Port of Baltimore has led to longer delivery times for imports, highlighting this week’s logistics roundup. CONTAINER RATES Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US continue to fall along with average global rates as capacity remains ample to handle the longer routes as commercial vessels continue to avoid the Suez Canal. Supply chain advisors Drewry said average rates ticked lower this week but remain 64% higher than the same week a year ago, as shown in the following chart. Rates from Asia to the US and Europe have also continued to fall, as shown in the following chart. Drewry said it expects a minor decrease in Transpacific spot rates and for stability along the Transatlantic and Asia-Europe trade lanes. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said rates along the US East Coast have fallen since the collapse of the Key Bridge in Baltimore, which signals to him that regional container traffic continues to flow. Levine said downward pressure will continue because of soft demand and it being the slow season for container trade, but that if threats persist in the Red Sea and commercial vessels continue to divert away from the Suez Canal, prices will remain above normal. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. PORT OF BALTIMORE The Unified Command (UC) continues to remove containers from the Dali and clear wreckage from the collapsed bridge at the entrance to the Port of Baltimore. Source: Key Bridge Response 2024 While the closure of the port has not had a direct impact on the flow of chemicals, a market participant in Ohio said it is seeing delays in delivery times for imports as vessels originally destined to offload in Baltimore are getting re-routed to other ports. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) expects to open a limited access channel 280 feet wide and 35 feet deep by the end of April, and are aiming to reopen the permanent, 700-foot-wide by 50-foot-deep federal navigation channel by the end of May, restoring port access to normal capacity. As of 11 April, approximately 38 containers have been removed, the UC said, which is necessary for safe access to them begin removing the segments of the fallen bridge that lie across the ship’s bow. While marine traffic is still limited, 69 vessels have transited through since the creation of the temporary alternate channels. LIQUID CHEM TANKERS US liquid chemical tanker freight rates as assessed by ICIS held mostly steady this week – except from the US Gulf Coast (USG) to India. There is downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as several outsiders have come on berth for both April and May, adding to the available tonnage for completion cargos. On the other hand, rates from the USG to Rotterdam were steady this week even as space is limited and there are no outsiders on berth. Contract tonnage continues to prevail, with continued interest in styrene, MTBE and ethanol. There has been activity on the spot market, but owners are still working with COA customers to finalize their needs before committing to others. For the USG to South America trade lane rates remain steady with several inquiries for methanol widely viewed in the market. PANAMA CANAL Wait times for non-booked vessels ready for transit edged higher both directions this week, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) vessel tracker and as shown in the following image. Wait times last week were 0.8 days for northbound traffic and 0.8 days for southbound traffic. Please see the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page With additional reporting by Emily Friedman and Kevin Callahan

12-Apr-2024

Argentina’s inflation up to 288% in March, but central bank cuts rates on ‘pronounced slowdown’

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Argentina’s annual rate of inflation rose to 287.9% in March, up from 276% in February, the country’s statistical agency Indec said on Friday. Month-on-month, the Consumer Price Index (IPC in its Spanish acronym) rose by 11.0%, a slowdown from the 13.2% monthly increase posted in February. It was the monthly slowdowns what prompted the country’s central bank to cut interest rates earlier this week. In the current inflation crisis, monthly price rises peaked in December, when the new government’s peso devaluation and the initial withdrawal of some subsidies caused prices to spike. It has been falling for the past three months thereafter. ARGENTINA MONTHLY INFLATION RATE In % change Source: Indec Some of the price increases in March, month on month, hit directly into consumers’ pockets, with squeezed Argentinians already stepping back from any big-ticket purchase. This, in turn, is causing a steep downturn in manufacturing, confirmed both by petrochemicals sources in Argentina and official statistics. “[In March, compared with February] The division with the greatest increase in the month was education (52.7%), due to the increases in fees at the start of the academic year. They were followed by communication (15.9%), due to increases in telephone and internet services, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (13.3%), due to increases in electricity service,” said Indec. “The division with the highest incidence in all regions was Food and non-alcoholic beverages (10.5%). Inside the division, the increases in meat and derivatives, milk, dairy products and eggs, vegetables, tubers and legumes, and bread and cereals.” ARGENTINA ANNUAL INFLATION RATEIn % change Source: Indec  UNORTHODOX CENTRAL BANKIn Argentina’s beleaguered economy, the old rulebook of economics may have stopped applying some time ago. The rulebook says that, to fight high inflation, central banks will increase borrowing costs to depress consumption and, with that, hopefully lower prices as firms compete for lower demand. Despite Argentina’s runaway annual rate of inflation, its central bank decided this week to lower interest rates to 70%, from 80%. “After the initial correction of relative prices in December 2023, a pronounced slowdown in inflation is observed, despite the strong statistical drag that inflation carries in its monthly averages,” said the Banco Central de la Republica Argentina (BCRA). “More frequent price surveys have been useful to appreciate end-to-end monthly dynamics. In the coming months, measurements of underlying or core inflation will take on greater relevance in the diagnosis of the trajectory of inflation, in view of the announced adjustments to regulated tariffs for public services.” The bank was referring there to the withdrawal of several subsidies for companies and households alike which, in view of the new Argentinian government of Javier Milei, distorted competition and the economy. Front page picture source: Shutterstock

12-Apr-2024

VIDEO: Europe R-PET colourless flake rise in NWE, UK while Polish bales fall

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Colourless (C) flake prices rise in NWE, UK EU Commission definitive ADD on Chinese PET, R-PET come into force Polish C bales drop from March highs Food-grade pellet demand uncertain ahead of 2025

12-Apr-2024

Crude demand expectations fall for 2024 as trends shift back to pre-COVID pattern – IEA

LONDON (ICIS)–The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday cut crude oil demand forecasts for the year, with rates expected to fall further next year as consumption returns to the pre-COVID-19 trend, increasing the odds of a peak in oil consumption this decade, the agency said. The IEA expects crude demand growth to average 1.2 million barrels/day this year, an increase from October projections of 900,000 barrels/day but a decline from the 1.3 million barrels/day projected in its monthly oil market report in March. This level of growth is expected to slow next year to 1.1 million barrels/day, representing a shift back to the trajectory of crude demand before the pandemic, increasing the chances that global demand will peak this decade, according to the agency. “Global oil demand growth is currently in the midst of a slowdown… bringing a peak in consumption into view this decade,” said Toril Bosoni, IEA head of oil industry, and markets and oil market analyst Ciaran Healy. “This is primarily the result of a normalization of growth following the disruptions of 2020-2023, when oil markets were shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic and then the global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” they added. Global crude oil demand 2011-25 (Source: IEA) Increasing fuel efficiency standards and electric vehicles comprising a larger chunk of the auto market are also affecting the rate of oil demand growth, the IEA added. Crude supply growth is expected to average 770,000 barrels/day this year, led by non-OPEC sources, particularly the US, offsetting a projected 820,0000 barrel/day decline year on year from OPEC+ cuts. Production growth could firm to 1.6 million barrels/day next year. Despite the projected demand declines this year, compared with growth of 2.3 million barrels/day in 2023, pricing has risen sharply in recent weeks, up by $8/barrel from early March to more than $90/barrel this week, on heightened geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a tighter supply-demand balance this year. “Russian refinery outages added to product market unease, while OPEC+ put pressure on some countries to increase compliance with agreed voluntary production cuts through Q2 2024,” the IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report. “Escalating oil supply security concerns are set against a backdrop of solid global oil demand growth of 1.6 million barrels/day in the first quarter and a more upbeat outlook for the global economy,” the agency added. In its latest oil forecast released this week, OPEC left GDP and crude demand growth expectations unchanged at 2.8% and 2.2 million barrels/day respectively. Thumbnail photo: An oil pump jack at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas play, Argentina. Source: Matias Baglietto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock 

12-Apr-2024

ICIS Innovation Awards 2024 now open for entries

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Entries are now open for the 2024 ICIS Innovation Awards, a celebration of chemical industry achievements around the world. Even in today’s challenging environment, the companies that will emerge as tomorrow’s winners are today investing in innovation to keep their pipeline of new products alive and thriving. Each year we receive entries from around the world from teams that want to have their successes celebrated and recognized across the industry. This year ICIS will recognize the winning entries with a lunch at London’s Savoy Hotel on 15 October. The drive towards net zero carbon is so important that almost all the entries help in some way to drive the industry in the right direction. Make sure your entry is concise, detailed and complete It should have the “Wow” factor Stage of commercialization is important: judges admire innovations with “steel in the ground” Impact on society and the chemical industry: the broader the potential impact the better Evidence of partnerships along supply chains: these are important in the drive to net zero To get the top award you need to offer something that is really different and truly innovative There are several categories to choose from that should allow companies of all sizes to have a fair chance to win. Best Product Innovation from an SME Best Product Innovation from a Large Company Best Process Innovation from an SME Best Process Innovation from a Large Company Best Digital Innovation from an SME and Large Company To enter the awards click here to register on the ICIS Innovation Awards portal.

12-Apr-2024

USDA calling for smaller ending corn stocks in April WASDE

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is calling for smaller ending corn stocks, while for soybeans it is forecasting higher ending supply, according to the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. For the corn outlook the monthly update is projecting not only the lower amount of ending stocks but also greater usage of the crop for ethanol and feed and residual use. Corn used for ethanol is being raised by 25 million bushels to stand at 5.4 billion bushels based on data through February from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Feed and residual use is also being increased by 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion bushels based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, the WASDE said ending stocks are now projected lowered by 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The USDA said season-average farm price received by producers is now down by 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. For soybeans, the outlook for supply and use not only expects higher ending stocks but also lower imports, residual use and exports. The monthly update said the soybean trade is being reduced on the pace seen to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised by 25 million bushels to 340 million bushels. The agency said the season-average soybean price is now forecasted lower by 10 cents to $12.55 per bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on 10 May.

11-Apr-2024

ExxonMobil to sell Fos–sur-Mer refinery in France

LONDON (ICIS)–ExxonMobil’s French affiliate, Esso SAF, plans to sell its Fos-Sur-Mer refinery near Marseille, France, along with fuel terminals in Toulouse and Villette, by the end of the year, officials announced on Thursday. The buyer is Rhone Energies, which is a consortium between oil and commodities trader Trafigura and Entara. About 310 Esso employees are expected to transfer to Rhone Energies. The sale is subject to regulatory and other approvals. Financial details were not disclosed. The sale of the refinery, which has a crude oil processing capacity of 7 million tonnes/year, is part of Esso's long-term strategy in France to maintain the competitiveness of its operations while guaranteeing continuity of supply to its customers in the south of France, it said. Esso will continue to supply the fuel market in southern France and the proposed sale will not impact its other activities in France, it added. Entara, which was established by former executives of Crossbridge Energy, will operate the Fos-sur-Mer refinery. Trafigura plans to enter into a minimum 10-year exclusive crude oil supply and product offtake agreement, ensuring that the refinery has a secure supply of on-demand feedstock at competitive costs and a reliable off-taker of refined products destined to the domestic market, it said. The refinery will continue to be an important contributor to energy security in the region and would benefit from Trafigura’s global trading and logistics network, said Ben Luckock, Global Head of Oil for Trafigura. Oil and petroleum products will continue to play an important role in supporting growing global energy demand during the transition currently underway to a low-carbon economy, Luckock added. Rhone Energies intends to invest in the sustainability of the site to reduce its carbon footprint while also investing in growth projects enabling further co-processing of biogenic feedstocks to produce renewable fuels. In related news, ExxonMobil Chemical France announced earlier on Thursday that it plans to close its chemical production at Gravenchon in Normandy in 2024, subject to relevant government approvals. That closure is entirely separate from the proposed sale of the refinery, officials said. Additional reporting by Nel Weddle Thumbnail photo: A worker walking past ExxonMobil’s Fos-sur-mer complex. Source: Guillaume Horcajuelo/EPA/Shutterstock

11-Apr-2024

ExxonMobil to close Gravenchon, France cracker and related derivative units in 2024

LONDON (ICIS)—ExxonMobil Chemical France has announced plans to close its chemical production at Gravenchon, in Normandy in France in 2024, subject to the relevant government approvals. According to a press release, the steamcracker and related derivatives units and logistics facilities will be shut down. The company said the site has lost more than €500 million since 2018 and despite efforts to improve the site’s economics, it remains uncompetitive. According to the ICIS Supply & Demand database, the cracker has the capacity to produce 425,000 tonnes/year of ethylene and 290,000 tonnes/year of propylene and was started up in 1967. A butadiene (BD) unit is also at the site and associated derivatives include polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP). ExxonMobil's nearby Port Jerome refinery will continue to operate supplying fuels, lubricants, basestocks and asphalt. The closure will impact 677 jobs through 2025. ExxonMobil said this planned closure is entirely separate from the Esso S.A.F. announcement regarding its proposed sale of the Esso Fos-sur-Mer refinery and South France logistics assets. Charles Amyot, president of ExxonMobil companies in France said: “It has been a very difficult decision for us to take, but we cannot continue to operate at such a loss.” This week Saudi Arabia's Sabic also revealed plans to permanently close its Olefins 3 cracker – one of two at their Geleen, Netherlands site.

11-Apr-2024

INVISTA to explore alternatives for nylon fibers business

HOUSTON (ICIS)–INVISTA plans to explore strategic alternatives for its nylon fibers business and has engaged Barclays as exclusive financial advisor during the exploration process, the US-based manufacturer of chemical intermediates, polymers and fibers said in a statement late on Tuesday. The nylon fibers business includes: INVISTA’s fiber-focused portfolio: airbag and industrial fibers The CORDURA businesses Five supporting global manufacturing locations: Seaford, Delaware and Martinsville, Virginia, both in the US; Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Gloucester, UK; and Qingpu, China INVISTA believes that there are other companies with a different focus and capabilities that could create greater value with those assets, said CEO Francis Murphy. If, however, through the process INVISTA finds that other companies do not value the nylon business more highly, it will continue to operate it, Murphy said. If INVISTA proceeds with a transaction, it would also result in a simplification and strengthened focus on its long-term competitive positions in the upstream nylon and propylene value chain businesses, it said. The nylon fiber assets are a major part of the current INVISTA footprint, “and it would be premature to speculate on the final structure of a potential deal”, it said, adding that details of the business and exploration process are confidential. Regardless of a potential transaction to divest its nylon fibers business, INVISTA will continue to supply its global nylon and propylene value chain customers with intermediates, polymers and specialty chemicals, the company said. Photo source: Attapon Thana/Shutterstock

10-Apr-2024

Fitch downgrades China rating outlook to ‘negative’ as debts pile up

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s fiscal challenges amid rising government debt and its prolonged property slump weighing on recovery prospects prompted Fitch to revise down its credit rating outlook for the world’s second-biggest economy to “negative” from “stable”. Fitch has, nonetheless, affirmed China’s investment grade long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) of “A+”. Deficit-to-GDP ratio to rise to 7.1%; reduction plan to be gradual GDP growth forecast to slow to 4.5% Prolonged deflation ruled out “The Outlook revision reflects increasing risks to China's public finance outlook as the country contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model,” the ratings firm said in a report released late on 9 April. Fitch forecasts China’s fiscal deficit to rise to 7.1% of GDP in 2024, from 5.8% in the previous year. It will be the highest since 2020, when the country’s fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio hit 8.6%, and more than double the pre-pandemic average of 3.1% in 2015-2019. “The central government (CG) will shoulder a greater share of the fiscal burden in 2024, as local and regional government (LRG) finances remain constrained from declines in land-related revenue and high debt burdens,” it said. China’s central government plans to issue Chinese yuan (CNY) 1 trillion ($138bn), equivalent to 0.8% of GDP, worth of ultra-long bonds, on top of a bond issuance of the same size in 2023. “Wide fiscal deficits and rising government debt in recent years have eroded fiscal buffers from a ratings perspective,” Fitch said. “Fitch believes that fiscal policy is increasingly likely to play an important role in supporting growth in the coming years which could keep debt on a steady upward trend,” it added. “We expect deficit reduction to be gradual as it will likely be balanced against economic growth objectives,” the ratings firm said. “There is little clarity on reform measures to support medium-term fiscal consolidation. The revenue base has also eroded, as a result of tax relief measures since 2018 and a weaker outlook for property-related revenue (20%-30% of total LRG revenue),” it added. Gloom continued to surround China’s property sector, with some major developers facing liquidation, dampening optimism over recent upbeat data on manufacturing. Home prices in the country continued to decline, with contract sales volume of top 100 Chinese developers at record lows. China’s investment grade rating, however, “is supported by its large and diversified economy, still solid GDP growth prospects relative to peers, integral role in global goods trade, robust external finances, and reserve currency status of the yuan”. The economy is projected to post a slower growth of 4.5% this year, compared with the actual pace of 5.2% in 2023, according to Fitch Ratings. The GDP growth forecast was also lower than the government’s target of about 5%. China had a six-month bout with deflation in consumer prices which ended in February, when demand was boosted by the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. “We do not forecast a prolonged period of deflation, with inflation of 0.7% by end-2024 and 1.3% by end-2025,” it said. “Even so, risks are tilted to the downside and inflation could remain lower than we forecast, further weighing on the nominal GDP growth outlook,” Fitch added. Focus article by Pearl Bantillo ($1 = CNY7.23) Thumbnail image: At the Dapukou container terminal at Zhoushan port in Zhejiang province, China, on 9 April 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

10-Apr-2024

Specialised analytics

Optimise outcomes with ICIS specialised analytics tools, seamlessly integrated into your workflows and processes via Data as a Service (DaaS). Or gain access to recycled plastics with our innovative Mechanical and Chemical Recycling Supply Trackers.

Contact us

Partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. We leverage our unrivalled network of industry experts to deliver a comprehensive market view based on trusted data, insight and analytics, supporting our partners as they transact today and plan for tomorrow.

    We would like to keep you up-to-date with what’s happening at ICIS* and tell you about our latest products and other services. We may email you about information we think you’ll be interested in, including selected articles and reminders about forthcoming events. If you do not wish to receive such information please tick the box to opt out of these emails