Asia
Spot prices in the Asian ammonia market increased sharply from August to November, rising to $770-790/tonne CFR (cost & freight) Asia in mid-November from $700-720/tonne CFR Asia in mid-August.
The higher prices were propelled by very tight market conditions in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, given extended turnarounds in Australia and Indonesia, ongoing production issues in Qatar, and prospects of further maintenance shutdowns during the month of November in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Qatar.
Limited exports from Iran because of international trade sanctions also contributed to the bullish market trend, despite reduced ammonia consumption from downstream acrylonitrile (ACN) and caprolactam (capro) plants in Asia.
Several downstream units were run at reduced rates or were shut down temporarily during this period because of weak market conditions amid growing production costs.
However, the resulting reductions in ammonia demand did little to help the market attain a more balanced supply/demand ratio, or to diminish the prevailing upward price pressure.
Updated to mid-November 2012
Europe
Ammonia prices in the Black Sea maintained a downward trajectory during the first quarter of 2013, although a tightening global supply/demand balance caused by plant shutdowns and outages in the Arabian Gulf slowed the rate of fall at the start of the second quarter.
Benchmark prices fell from $570/tonne FOB (free on board) for February loadings to $511/tonne FOB for May cargoes sold by major producer NF Trading, which now handles an extra 50,000-60,000 tonnes of ammonia a month produced by Odessa Port Plant (OPZ).
The sliding price was the result of reduced demand from Indian producers of DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate), and lower output rates at several downstream acrylonitrile (ACN), caprolactam and nitric acid plants in Korea and Taiwan.
Some market participants have speculated that Black Sea prices could fall to $500/tonne FOB for June loadings, but recent planned and unplanned outages at ammonia plants in Saudi Arabia have impacted May and June availability in the Arabian Gulf, which could give support to Yuzhny prices heading into the second half of the year.
Updated to mid-May 2013