Free trial: 15 min Intra-day Forecast, German Power
The ICIS intra-day forecast is extremely accurate and even simple hypothetical trading strategies enabled high trading profits last year.
See the benefits for yourself with a free, two-month trial to the ICIS intra-day auction forecast and access three daily forecast runs.
The European Daily Electricity Markets report supplies market participants with in-depth coverage of Europe's power sector.
The coverage includes independent price assessments, indices and analysis on the latest market developments, fundamentals data and daily news stories.
The power package add-on includes further commentary and exchange prices for coal and European carbon markets, as well as analysis of fuel switching trends
Updated to Q4 2017
European electricity markets are nervous going into the winter of 2017 with supply-side risks related to French nuclear production, low hydropower stocks in southern and eastern parts of the continent and high global coal prices all giving market participants cause for concern. Supply will pick up quarter on quarter however as winter consumption, which must be met minute by minute, ramps up. The impact of coal prices in particular could lift the overall price of electricity because coal-fired power, although on the way to being phased out in Europe, is still vital for meeting high demand over the winter months.
As is always the case, demand will be key to system security over the winter. The timing of any cold snap – whether it hits Europe before or after the New Year, or sometimes on either side – can influence how comfortable the electricity system is when coping. An earlier cold snap can cause issues if followed by another later in the season.
Power Perspective is an online tool designed to put power market developments into perspective regarding their price impact. Our experts analyse the cross-border impact of national developments and provide you with a roadmap of market drivers throughout Europe. This empowers you to develop the most profitable strategy for your business.
Our solution enables you to:
Highly accurate price forecasts and HPFCs for all trading horizons on the German power market – Intraday, day-ahead and long term. The ICIS price forecasts combine a range of modelling techniques, including regression and neural network approaches, to accurately forecast prices in all situations.
ICIS forecasts for national demand deliver highest accuracy by processing an unusually high number of input variables without overfitting, including highest resolution weather data.
Hourly Price Forward Curves for the German power market model the effect of increasing renewable capacity on price shapes. The forward-looking HPFCs are built using the superior ICIS spot price model and give you the opportunity to identify real business risks and value assets reliably.
The ICIS Power Index (IPI) gives homes and businesses an insight into price trends on the UK wholesale electricity market. Robust energy markets are vital to the UK economy, and the IPI makes electricity price trends and activity more visible and accessible to household consumers and commercial buyers, as well as media and policy-makers.
The IPI is published daily by ICIS, an independent authority on UK electricity market pricing, and is available at no charge.
The IPI shows movements on the most liquid contracts for forward delivery on the UK electricity market, removing the impact of seasonality and weighted to reflect real consumption.
The IPI methodology details how this index is calculated.
The IPI will enable energy users, buyers, media and policymakers to answer the question “have wholesale energy prices risen or fallen over the last year?”
Specifically, the IPI shows the average daily price for electricity delivered over the next summer and winter in pounds per megawatt hours (£/MWh), weighted to show the extra demand for electricity in winter.
By accounting for a full year of delivery, the IPI will show the ‘real’ picture for energy price movements across the market – rather than price ‘rises’ based on greater demand during winter, with colder weather and shorter days, or price ‘falls’ because of lower demand in summer.
The IPI shows energy price trends in the UK wholesale market, but not how particular tariffs would be affected, or individual companies’ profit margins. This is similar to a stock market index like the FTSE 100, which shows trends across the market, but does not necessarily reflect the share price movements of an individual company.
Active wholesale markets are important in reaching a fair market value for UK electricity, and the IPI also shows how much electricity is trading for the front two seasons each day. As a result, the volumes used in the IPI indicate the level of participation in the wholesale market.
The UK’s electricity consumption is bought and sold many times over on the forward electricity markets, as buyers meet sellers to trade and manage their risk over many delivery timescales.
On any given day, there are various ways and places to buy wholesale electricity. Buyers and sellers can also trade wholesale electricity for use on different days, weeks, months, seasons or years. These prices can display a large degree of correlation, but they can also differ greatly. Short-term, daily prices may react to a short-term problem – such as a power station shutting down – but this may have no impact on the cost of electricity delivered on a long-term contract.
These differences often lead to debate over the ‘right’ wholesale price – and more importantly, whether the average price is moving up or down. For example, one person might discuss price trends for longer-term contract deliveries – such as the six-month contract for the next season – while another might refer to the price for electricity delivered each day, which is more volatile.
The IPI is designed to act as a neutral, independent indicator of wholesale market movements.
The IPI also demonstrates the UK electricity market at work, enabling non-industry participants to see price trends at a glance, based on real trading activity reflected by other price benchmarks in use within the industry.
ICIS analysis found that power and natural gas demand and prices are at their lowest when temperatures reach 17°C in the UK and France. Heating demand is also at its lowest on these days.
This infographic by ICIS market reporter, William Peck, reveals which temperatures have the lowest energy demand in the two countries, and the effect this has on pricing.
The Nordic countries have initiated a number of electricity interconnector projects, with many to be commissioned in the next four years. The new links will increase opportunities for cross-border trade between Scandinavia, the northwest European markets and the UK.
Our new infographic by ICIS deputy news editor, Chris Somers, presents all of the upcoming Nordic interconnector projects, their capacities and commissioning dates.
UK wholesale energy prices hit four-year highs on the forward products most regularly traded by energy companies during the winter, the ICIS Power Index reveals, as number of supply problems combined with the ‘Beast from the East’, increasing fundamental risk in the traded markets