Base Oils II: Quality Drivers, Forecasting, and Global Profitability
Day 1
7:00 Refresher: Base Oils I Terminology & Technology
- Crude and base oil naming conventions
- Technology, key properties, and where they’re controlled
- API Groups: the detailed definitions
7:45 Volatility Requirements – Industry Game Changer
- The technical details of viscosity index (VI)
- Volatility: another base oil property to understand
- VI – Volatility – Viscosity relationships
8:45 Break
9:00 Viscosity, Volatility & Engine Oils: an overview
- Viscosity measurement under different conditions
- Putting it together: SAE J-300 Engine Oils
- Why this matters for all other base oil sectors
10:00 End of Day 1
Day 2
7:00 Global Variations in Base Oil Quality
- Major suppliers by API Group
- Supplier quality comparisons within each group
- PAO & GTL: engine oil quality nirvana
7:50 Base Oil Pricing Mechanisms – what sets base oil price?
- Price ceilings: buyers (finished lubricants; process oils)
- Price floors: sellers (base oil refiners & marketers)
8:50 Break
9:00 Base Oil Supply & Demand Outlook
- Current global supply and demand
- Recent capacity additions, more capacity announced
- Covid recovery base oil forecast scenarios
- Example: A simplified 2030 base oil forecast
10:00 End of Day 2
Day 3
7:00 Base Oil Refinery Profitability
- Profit basics: revenue less expenses
- Fuels versus base oils: who pays for what?
- By-products from base oil plants
- Group I vs Group II vs Group III profitability factors
8:00 Discussion: Findings of Base Oil Profit Exercise
- Comparison of Group I, II, III profits using 4Q 2021 pricing
- Comparison of Group I, II, III profits using earlier pricing
8:30 Break
9:00 Trends & Drivers: Survival of the Fittest (60 minutes)
- Unintended oversupply from hydroprocessing
- Bio-based, Re-refined, & Group V synthetic base oils
- New survival schemes required in an oversupplied world
10:00 End of Day 3 and End of Course
Suggested Base Oil Technical Reference Books
Lubricant Base Oil and Wax Processing, Sequeira
Process Chemistry of Lubricant Basestocks, Lynch
Amy Claxton email aaclaxt@yahoo.com