PODCAST: Geopolitical risks threaten recovery of economy, chemicals

BARCELONA (ICIS)–A more optimistic outlook for the global economy and chemicals could be jeopardized by rising geopolitical instability.

• Current downturn reminiscent of 1970s’ oil shock
• Global GDP growth could start to recover from 2025
• Geo-political risks are rising and could jeopardise economy
• Chemicals CEOs slightly more upbeat
• PMIs show China manufacturing now expanding
• But China challenged by debt, property bubble, youth unemployment, demographics
• Expect 2-3%/year China GDP growth in 2030s as population declines
• Europe economy is stabilising, driven by services
• US economy should see a soft landing

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS chief economist Kevin Swift, ICIS Insight editor Nigel Davis and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here .

Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business.

Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.