Above-average European LNG sendout forecast in April

LNG sendout for 1-14 April from key European terminals is forecast to surpass the three-year April average, ICIS analysis shows.

ICIS used a short-term optimisation model to forecast LNG sendout across Europe, which considers incoming shipments using port and algorithmic data from LNG Edge, sendout and technical constraints of regional terminals and gas hub prices.

Coverage includes the UK, Spain, France, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland and Portugal.

Across the countries covered by the model, a total of 38 laden vessels are expected in Europe over the first two weeks of April, according to port and algorithmic data from LNG Edge.

Spain and France will account for the greatest share of incoming shipments with 10 each, followed by Belgium with five.

In the base case scenario, sendout would average 291 million cubic metres (mcm)/day with a peak on 10 April.

Spain would regasify the most LNG.

In the maximum sendout scenario, where LNG is withdrawn at the upper limits of each terminal, sendout will average 346mcm/day over the period with daily output to peak at 496mcm on 12 April.

Spain would once again lead sendout.

In contrast, the daily average in April last year was 332mcm/day, 14% above the base-case scenario and 3% below the maximum sendout scenario. The three-year average stands at 206mcm/day.

WINTER TRENDS

European LNG send-out across winter 2020/21 averaged 212mcm/day, 33% down on last year. Sendout was also 5% below the average of the previous three winters.

Sendout suffered this winter due to low LNG imports with much supply, especially from the US, instead heading to Asia on high weather-driven demand and associated spot prices.

Asian spot LNG was bullish early in the year with additional support from tight supply and very limited shipping, triggering heightened .

Europe imported a total of 30m tonnes across the winter, 30% below last winter’s volumes and 3% below the three-year average.

The slump in LNG arrivals, coupled with peak winter demand, put LNG stocks under greater pressure than in previous years.

Spain, home to Europe’s largest capacity, held an average of 877mcm equivalent of regasified LNG in stocks for the winter. This translated to a 33% drop year on year.

Sendout is set to pick up in the second quarter with European LNG imports to be boosted with European prices closer to Asia and with strong US LNG production forecast. European imports hit an all-time high in March, shows.

WEEK-ON-WEEK CHANGES

European LNG sendout slumped to 296mcm on 31 March, a week-on-week reduction of 56mcm. The decline coincided with milder temperatures sweeping across northwest Europe, above-average wind output in key energy markets, and supply disruptions.

Qatari deliveries into Europe were among the worst affected due to blockage at the Canal which lasted 23-29 March.

Additional reporting by Andreas Schroeder and Daniel Stemler