BLOG: China could become the world’s third-biggest PP net exporter in 2022-2040

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson.

We’ve been thinking a lot lately about the famous TS Eliot quote, “humankind cannot bear too much reality”.

How do you sweeten the pill in order to get chemicals companies used to the reality that everything has changed?

Our conclusion? Don’t bother, just go for it, as there is no more time to waste on the sustainability transition, as it is the only viable route to growth given, for example, today’ post. Just minor adjustments to growth and operating rates could leave China as a:

• A net exporter of 90m tonnes of polypropylene (PP) in 2022-2040 rather than as a net importer of 91m tonnes.
• Even if growth holds up reasonably well (and we need to ask hard questions about whether this will happen), net imports may fall to 50m tonnes in 2022-2040 versus actual net imports of 87m tonnes in 2000-2021, 59% of the global total.
• Let’s assume that Scenario 3 becomes true in the chart below -China is a 91m tonnes next exporter in 2022-2040. This would leave it as the world’s second-biggest net exporter, behind only the Middle East.

Let’s move forward together towards the sustainability transition.

Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.