MUMBAI (ICIS)–Trade negotiations are still ongoing between the US and India, but US President Donald Trump announced in a social media post that 25% tariffs would apply to the south Asian nation starting 1 August. Tariffs to hit $87 billion worth of Indian exports to US US to impose penalties over BRICS, Russian energy imports Exporters worry over higher rates compared with other Asian countries In a post on Truth Social, Trump said said that the US had done relatively little business with India because of the country’s high tariffs and its “strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers”. Negotiations have slowed down due to India’s refusal to open up certain sectors like agriculture, and dairy while the US has also imposed additional tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from India. The newly announced tariff rate was just a percentage point lower compared with the initial rate announced by the US in early April. The new tariffs are expected to impact Indian goods exports to the US, which stood at around $87 billion in 2024, especially the garment, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewels, and petrochemicals exports. Trump said his administration was still negotiating the final tariff rate with India. “They [India] have one of the highest tariffs in the world now, they’re willing to cut it very substantially,” Trump during a press conference on 30 July. The proposed US tariffs on India were higher compared with other countries that have concluded trade agreements with the US – 15% for Japan and South Korea; 19% for Indonesia; and 20% for the Philippines and Vietnam. INDIA FACES US PENALTY ON TOP OF TARIFFS In addition to the tariffs, Trump also proposes to impose an unspecified penalty on India for buying energy and military equipment from Russia, as well as for its membership in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) group. “They [India] have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of energy, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to stop the killing in Ukraine.” Trump accused the BRICS alliance of countries of being hostile to the US. The BRICS alliance now includes 10 countries, with Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE as new members. On 9 July, Trump had said that the US would impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from any countries aligning themselves with the “anti-American policies” of the BRICS. “So, it’s partially BRICS, and it’s partially, the trade situation. We have a tremendous deficit. Prime Minister Modi is a friend of mine, but they don’t do very much business in terms of business with us,” Trump said. “The government has taken note of a statement by the US President on bilateral trade.  The government is studying its implications,” India’s Ministry of Commerce said in response to the tariff announcement by Trump on 30 July. “India and the US have been engaged in negotiations on concluding a fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement over the last few months. We remain committed to that objective,” it added The government will protect the welfare of the farmers, entrepreneurs, and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) the statement said. It indicated that the government intends to secure trade agreements like the latest Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement it formalised with the UK. India and the US have been negotiating a bilateral trade agreement (BTA), since February following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US. The US is India’s largest trade partner. In the fiscal year ending March 2025, India had a trade surplus of $41.2 billion with the US, official data showed. Meanwhile, Russia accounted for nearly 35% of India’s oil imports until June 2025, as per official records “The tariffs imposed on India is a little disappointing for us. The penalty President Trump has talked about is also not clear,” Ajay Sahai Director General of Federation of Indian Export Organisations said to Asian News International (ANI) newswire on 30 July. The new tariffs are a “major setback for Indian exporters, especially in sectors like textiles, footwear and furniture, as the 25% tariff will render them uncompetitive against rivals from Vietnam and China,” FIEO president S C Ralhan said. “While this move is unfortunate and will have a clear bearing on our exports, we hope that this imposition of higher tariffs will be a short-term phenomenon and that a permanent trade deal between the two sides will be finalised soon,” Harsha Vardhan president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) said. Focus article by Priya Jestin Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

LONDON (ICIS)–On 30 July the European Commission published draft terms for its third Innovation Fund hydrogen auction (IF25), outlining a €1.1 billion support package aimed at scaling up renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production across the European Economic Area (EEA). The auction, part of the European Hydrogen Bank (EHB) and scheduled for the fourth quarter 2025, expands eligibility to include both renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) and electrolytic low-carbon hydrogen. The IF25 auction will be split across three topics: Topic 1 (€400 million): Open to RFNBO and/or electrolytic low-carbon hydrogen projects Topic 2 (€400 million): Exclusively for RFNBO hydrogen Topic 3 (€200 million): RFNBO and/or electrolytic low-carbon hydrogen projects for supply of the maritime sector, with potential for an additional €100 million via EEA country contributions under the Auction-as-a-Service (AaaS) mechanism Projects will compete for fixed premium payments per kilogram of certified hydrogen produced, with support lasting up to 10 years. The ceiling price is set at €4/kg, and bids will be ranked solely on price. To qualify, projects must demonstrate credible plans for electricity sourcing, hydrogen offtake, electrolyser procurement, and permitting. A minimum electrolyzer capacity of 5MW is required, and only new production capacity is eligible. To secure domestic manufacturing capacity, the auction introduces origin requirements for electrolyzers. At least 75% of electrolyzer units must originate outside China, with further restrictions on key components. Low-carbon hydrogen production must achieve at least 70% greenhouse gas savings compared to fossil fuels. The IF25 auction continues the AaaS model, allowing member states to use national funds for projects that are not granted support from the EHB pot. Germany, Spain, Austria, and Lithuania have previously used this mechanism. Previous rounds were oversubscribed. The second auction received 61 bids, with 15 projects selected for a total of €992 million support. Bid prices ranged from €0.20-0.60/kg for general projects and €0.45-1.88/kg for maritime projects. The first round attracted 132 bids for seven selected projects, dropping to six after one chose not to continue, and total support of around €694 million. Bid prices were between €0.37-0.48/kg. Consultation on the draft terms is open until 14 September.

LONDON (ICIS)–On 28 July, the EU’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) issued its first formal guidance on how hydrogen network costs should be shared between early and future users, recommending an inter-temporal cost allocation (ITCA) framework. ITCA is a mechanism that allows hydrogen network investors to recover infrastructure costs over time through tariffs. The aim is to avoid burdening early users with high costs while the market is still nascent. Germany’s WANDA scheme is the only operational ITCA model in the EU, though Denmark is developing a similar scheme. In Germany initial revenue shortfalls, due to low early demand and high upfront infrastructure costs, are recorded in an €24 billion amortisation account,  financed by a loan from the country’s state-owned investment bank. Pipeline operators must repay this fund by 2055, or cover 24% of any shortfall, with the state absorbing the rest. In May, Dutch regulators cited the mechanism as a method to prevent soaring transmission costs in the Netherlands. Hydrogen is a key part of the EU’s decarbonisation strategy, but infrastructure investment has not developed as quickly as once expected. High production costs and the uncertain pace of demand materialisation has made it difficult for hydrogen projects to secure private capital. Without mechanisms like ITCA, ACER argues that early-stage tariffs could become prohibitively expensive, deterring uptake. EU-wide network codes for hydrogen are not expected before 2027, leaving member states to design interim rules.

LONDON (ICIS)–On 28 July the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) launched a public consultation for a €400 million bilateral renewable hydrogen auction with Canada. The auction, jointly funded by the German and Canadian governments with €200 million each, will support the import of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs), including renewable hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and other e-fuels, produced in Canada and sold to offtakers in Germany Unlike previous H2Global tenders, which relied on the intermediary Hintco to purchase hydrogen on long-term contracts with the aim of reselling those volumes at the highest possible price, this auction will directly match Canadian producers with German buyers for up-to 10-year offtake agreements. Hintco will facilitate the matchmaking but will not hold contractual obligations post-award. It will not guarantee delivery by producers or payment by offtakers. Like previous H2Global auctions, the difference between the winning producer’s price ask and the winning offtaker’s payment offer will be subsidised. BMWE has invited stakeholders to respond to a questionnaire outlining the auction design and eligibility criteria. The auction will allow bids based on energy content rather than fuel type. This flexibility is intended to maximise participation and cost-efficiency, with awards favouring suppliers offering the highest energy volumes. The consultation is open until 10 September.

LONDON (ICIS)–Join John Richardson, ICIS senior executive, business solutions group, in Episode 4 of Sustainably Speaking along with Mark Victory and Matt Tudball, senior editors for recycling Europe, and Helen McGeough, global analyst team lead for plastic recycling as they discuss the European Commission’s proposals to allow mass balance for chemical recycling using a fuel-exempt accounting approach under the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD), and what this means for the wider recycling world. Plus, how amendments in the draft Implementing Decision allow for recyclate from outside the EU to count towards the 25% recycled content for polyethylene terephthlate (PET) beverage bottles, as well as what is going on in the wider world of recycling. Some questions answered during this episode: Why is this draft Implementing Decision on mass balance so important, and what does ‘fuel-exempt’ mean? Will this increase investment in chemical recycling in Europe and what happens if other regions go for a ‘free allocation’ approach? What’s the impact on global operators working in different markets? Can recyclate made from post-consumer plastic waste placed on third country markets count towards recycled content targets? What does a ‘level playing field’ for Europe look like? Will there be a sudden acceleration of chemical recycling projects as Europe’s crackers close? Is chemical recycling the solution for mass-scale food contact for polyolefins in Europe by 2030?

LONDON (ICIS)–From four-year lows for European polypropylene (PP) prices, Dow announcing the closure of its Bohlen cracker, see-sawing crude oil prices, a key US and EU tariff deal, and some fresh anti-dumping duties in India – June and July have been action packed for PP and polyethylene (PE). ICIS senior editor manager Vicky Ellis and senior editor Ben Lake compare notes with ICIS market specialist Aswin Kondapally on how Europe and Indian markets match up in July, and what to expect in August.

MADRID (ICIS)–Brazilian chemical producers are facing several contract cancellations as US President Donald Trump threatens fresh 50% levies on Latin America’s largest economy from 1 August, trade group Abiquim said. In a written response to ICIS, Abiquim’s director general Andre Passos said the window to reach a trade deal with the US is closing, prompting the orders cancellations. “These decisions are being made because the bet is that Trump will actually apply the tariff,” said Passos. Abiquim, which represents chemical producers in Brazil, said following Trump’s tariffs announcement earlier in July, export orders have been canceled for specific resins and compounds utilized in fertilizers production. While Brazil is a net importer of fertilizers to feed its powerful agricultural sector, the country also exports certain fertilizers to the US’s agricultural sector, said Abiquim. Brazilian chemicals exports to the US stood at $2.4 billion in 2024. According to Passos, one Brazilian company had seen all its US export contracts canceled, while others have reported partial cancellations for certain shipments or products. He added that there have also been cases of sellers that experienced cancellations for previously greenlit export financing and the order linked to that financing. However, he did not mention the affected exporters. On 29 July, US chemicals producer Olin said the possibility that Brazil could impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports has already caused a decline in US caustic soda shipments to Latin America as a whole. “What we’re seeing is less material being exported to Latin America just because of the threat of the tariffs that are there. That’s causing some headwind in the cost at the market in the short term,” said Olin CEO Ken Lane. WIDESPREAD IMPACTAccording to Passos, the damage associated with the US tariffs could extend beyond direct chemicals shipments because virtually every industry employs chemicals in manufacturing processes. “No-one produces coffee, even grains, without some kind of chemical product in the process. Brazilian plywood exporters, for instance, utilize chemicals for bonding, and they are also facing US order cancellations,” said Passos. “Orange juice manufacturers, which dispatched 42% of their exports to the US last year, also employ chemical preservatives.” Abiquim reiterated its stance that US tariffs on Brazilian chemicals “lack justification”, given the sector’s trade deficit with the US, which in 2024 stood at $7.9 billion: the result of Brazil importing $10.4 billion worth of chemicals while exports were valued at $2.4 billion. CONTINGENCY PLANSWhile analysts said in mid-July that a deal between the US and Brazil before 1 August was within reach, hopes are fading less than 48 hours before the tariffs’ effective date. Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Viera reportedly attempted to reach the US administration to negotiate a potential deal while attending a summit in New York earlier this week, without success. This week, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received a contingency plan from finance minister Fernando Haddad aimed at assisting companies affected by the 50% tariff, according to state-owned news agency Agencia Brasil. Haddad said, however, that Brazil does not intend to abandon negotiations and will continue prioritizing dialogue to reverse the measure. “The possible scenarios are already known to the president. We have not yet made any decision [on potential retaliation], because we do not even know what the US’s decision will be on 1 August,” said Haddad, without giving details about the contingency plan. “The important thing is that the president now holds in his hands all the scenarios that have been defined by four ministries. We agreed to present him [Lula] with the contingency plan, including all the options available to Brazil and to him as president. [But] the focus remains on negotiations,” he added. Front page picture: Brazil’s Santos port in the state of Sao Paulo Source: Port of Santos Authority

LONDON (ICIS)–The rate of economic growth in the eurozone and EU slowed down in Q2 from the previous quarter, official data showed on Wednesday. GDP increased by 0.1% in the eurozone and by 0.2% in the EU, according to a flash estimate by statistics agency Eurostat, which is subject to revision. In the first quarter, GDP had increased by 0.6% in the eurozone and by 0.5% in the EU. 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 Eurozone 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.1 EU 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 Spain (+0.7%) recorded the highest Q2 GDP increase from the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+0.6%) and Estonia (+0.5%). Europe’s largest chemicals producer Germany, and Italy, both saw economic contraction, with a GDP decline of 0.1%, Eurostat said. On a year-on-year basis, Q2 GDP increased by 1.4% in the eurozone and by 1.5% in the EU. Europe’s economy this year has been influenced by uncertainty over the impact of US trade tariffs on the EU, although a deal has now been agreed between Donald Trump and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Solvay’s underlying net profit from continuing operations fell by 15% year on year to €99 million in the second quarter (Q2) amid soft demand, the Belgian chemicals firm said on Wednesday. in € million Q2 2025 Q2 2024 % Change H1 2025 H1 2024 % Change Net sales 1,102 1,194 -7.8 2,223 2,396 -7.2 EBITDA 230 272 -15.4 480 538 -10.8 Net profit 99 116 -15.0 201 236 -14.8 Solvay’s underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin was down by 1.9 percentage points year on year to 20.9% from 22.8% in the second quarter. Basic Chemicals sales in Q2 2025 were down by 5.8% year on year compared with Q2 2024, the company said. Soda ash volumes, though improved sequentially compared to Q1, were lower year on year from sluggish demand in domestic markets and competition on the seaborne market. Bicarbonate demand continues to be robust, however. “The level of business activity in the first half of 2025 has been impacted by the uncertainty around the tariff discussions and heightened geopolitical tensions,” said Philippe Kehren, Solvay CEO. “Over the past few months, our industry has faced a soft market demand environment, and this is not expected to improve in the coming months.” As of 14 July, Solvay now expects underlying EBITDA for 2025 to be between €880 million and €930 million, revised down from €1.0 billion and €1.1 billion, assuming current foreign exchange levels for the second half of the year.