Denmark sees full biomethane reliance this summer Scaled-up biomethane output bolstered security of supply during crisis Energinet working with Germany to reach agreement on technical specifications BUCHAREST (ICIS)–Denmark is planning to scale up its biomethane production amid a greater push to phase out fossil gas domestically and ramp up exports to Europe. In an interview with ICIS, three experts at the Danish gas and electricity grid operator Energinet, confirmed the country had reached several days of full reliance on biomethane this and last summer. The trend is likely to increase as Denmark intends to expand annual production – currently hovering above 8TWh – by another 25% in the next two years and fully replace fossil gas with renewable gas by the beginning of the next decade. ‘If you have a vision for 35 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year for biomethane in the EU, then you also need some scale,’ said  Jeppe Bjerg, lead development manager. ‘You need to produce where resources are abundant and it’s a cost-effective solution. You cannot rely just on a 10 to 20-year time horizon; you need a market that is stable,’ he explained. SECURITY OF SUPPLY Denmark is a leader in biomethane output, holding top spot along with the UK, France and Germany among the largest producers in the EU. The push towards full fossil phaseout and replacement with renewable gases mirrors the EU’s commitments, but Bjerg said that the expansion of biomethane production has also brought security of supply dividends. “When we had the energy crisis in 2022, we started to see that biomethane production was making a real contribution to security of supply. It helped us. It’s not normally how we look at security of supply but when you produce 20% of your physical demand [of biomethane] you begin to see it,” Bjerg said. “We were laughing when its share was 0.5% initially but it has reached sufficient levels to shield us from the crisis,” he added. Bjerg believes that the key to Denmark’s biomethane production growth lies in a combination of running a well-developed agricultural sector and logistical chain, transparency, an outward looking attitude and, critically, generous subsidies similar to those forked out to the heating sector. Thanks to all these factors, Denmark has seen significant growth. Since 2013, when the sector was established, Denmark saw the establishment of 60 plants which are currently working at full capacity. Some of them have attracted large investor interest, such as Shell’s, which spent close to €2bn  in 2022 to snap up plants and associated infrastructure. Bjerg admitted that demand has been decreasing amid the expansion of electrification but said that export requirements will keep the sector viable in the longer term. GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN The success of exports depends on two factors, Energinet experts said. Firstly, Denmark is one of the EU’s front runners in trading guarantees of origin and linking up with the bloc’s Union Database for Fuels, a system tracking the production of liquid and gaseous fuels to ensure compliance with renewable energy targets. UDB is expected to be operational from next year and allow countries in the EU and immediate neighbourhood, such as Ukraine, to engage in cross-border trading. Data by the Danish Biogas Association show that more than 60% of local guarantees of origin for Danish-produced biogas were traded in Sweden and Germany. The remaining 20% were distributed in other EU countries and only 13% of Danish GOs were traded locally. The cost of GOs’ is becoming increasingly affordable, hovering at an average €15.00/MWh, a major decrease from €50-€60/MWh at the start of the industry, Bjerg said. TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS Secondly, Rasmus Neergaard Jacobsen, Energinet’s chief commercial manager and senior economist Lasse Ellebaek Krogh said the EU’s expansion of biomethane production will depend on harmonising technical specifications. Neergaard Jacobsen said Energinet and local distribution system operators had a very ‘embracing’ attitude from the start, trying to tackle operational challenges. “We do not establish compressor stations all over the place only where we can’t deal with challenges,” he added. Jacobsen said that one of the reasons Energinet was able to connect so many plants to the grid in Denmark was because the operator decided to increase the oxygen specification to 0.5% which was technically possible at a large scale at the time. “A lot of the new plants are able to work at lower level at 0.1 or 0.2% and today the gas we can export to Poland is at 0.2%,” he added. Ellebaek Krogh said exports to Germany are difficult because the locally accepted oxygen specification is 0.001%. He said Energinet was in talks with the distribution system operator in Schleswig-Holstein, northern Germany, to establish a biomethane zone. “We can export the amount that they consume in that particular area and ensure that high oxygen levels do not impact them,” he said. The alternative would be to find a solution on the Danish side of the border that would still facilitate the exports to Germany. ICIS has expanded its coverage of the emerging biomethane market via the development of the topic page “European biomethane: data, news and analysis”. Click here to access

MUMBAI (ICIS)–State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) has begun land acquisition and pre-project activities for its 9 million tonne/year greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex near Ramayapatnam port in the southeastern Andhra Pradesh state, company chairman Sanjay Khanna said. “This strategic investment will further expand BPCL’s petrochemical portfolio, provide a natural hedge against petroleum products in the long run, and align with India’s vision of becoming a global refining and petrochemical hub,” Khanna said during the company’s annual general meeting on 25 August. BPCL expects to invest rupee (Rs) 61 billion ($695.3 million) to set up the refinery project. The project will have an ethylene production capacity of 1.5 million tonnes/year is expected to have a petrochemical intensity index (PI) of 35%. PII is a measure of the percentage of crude oil that will be converted into chemicals. Once operational, BPCL plans to market around 80% of the new refinery’s products domestically to downstream producers and automobile manufactures in southern India. The new refinery is part of BPCL’s plan to invest Rs1.7 trillion over the next five years to grow its refining and fuel marketing business, as well as expand its petrochemicals and green energy businesses. Project Location Details Andhra Pradesh refinery and petrochemical complex Nellore, Andhra Pradesh Land acquisition, feasibility studies ongoing Bina Refinery Expansion Project Bina, Madhya Pradesh Includes refinery expansion and petrochemical projects. Commissioning by May 2028 Kochi Polypropylene Project Kochi, Kerala Expected to become operational by December 2027 Mumbai Refinery Upgradation Project Mumbai, Maharashtra Replacement of CCU & FCCU with PRFCC. Completion by May 2029 Bargarh ethanol project Bargarh, Odisha Ethanol plant to begin operations in September 2025 The company’s planned petrochemical expansions include the petrochemical projects at its Bina refinery in the central Madhya Pradesh state, and the Kochi refinery in the southern Kerala state. The Bina refinery project is a brownfield expansion that will raise the refinery’s capacity by 41% to 11m tonnes/year, to cater to the requirements of upcoming petrochemical plants, which include a 1.2 million tonnes/year ethylene cracker and downstream units. The site is expected to produce 1.15 million tonne/year of polyethylene (PE) including high density PE (HDPE) and linear low density PE (LLDPE) and 550,000 tonne/year of polypropylene (PP) and other chemicals like benzene, toluene, xylene and others. The Bina refinery project is on track for completion by May 2028 while the 400,000 tonne/year PP project at Kochi is expected to begin operations by December 2027, as per the annual report. BPCL is also investing Rs142 billion to upgrade its Mumbai refinery by replacing the catalytic cracking unit (CCU) and fluidized catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) with a petro resid fluidized catalytic cracking unit (PRFCCU), company chairman Sanjay Khanna said. The company expects to complete the upgrade by May 2029. Separately, the company expects to begin operations at its 200 kilolitre/day ethanol plant at Bargarh in the eastern Odisha state by September 2025. The ethanol plant is currently in pre-commissioning stage and once operational, the integrated refinery is expected to produce both first generation (1G) as well as second generation (2G) ethanol using rice grain and paddy straw as feedstock.

Shifting China energy mix focuses on power demand Gas-power to rise in the next two decades LNG-powered trucks being replaced by electric truck SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s energy transition is redefining the roles of energy use cases despite a significant increase in renewables. For example, natural gas demand from sectors like heavy-duty trucks is declining, but gas-fired power generation is securing a new and vital role as a “flexible regulator” for the grid. As a result, gas-fired power is projected to continue its growth, serving a crucial function for grid stability and ensuring its place in China’s energy mix for the next two decades. The pace of new sources in China’s energy mix is changing forecasts for fossil fuel demand, including LNG as more supply comes online with growing electricity demand at the forefront for transport, industrial and consumer uses. In previous summers, the government would often limit industrial power to ensure stable residential supply during peak demand. This was a period when LNG power generation typically saw a significant increase. This year, the National Energy Administration (NEA) reported a record-high national electricity load in July, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts. The country generated 926.7 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of power in July, up 3.1 % from industrial units above the designated size. From January to July, as a whole, power generation reached 5.47 trillion kWh, up 1.3 % compared with the same period of last year, according to a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) release on 15 August. In contrast, according to China Customs, natural gas imports (including pipeline gas and LNG) decreased by 6.9% year-on-year from January-July 2025. RENEWABLES GAINS HARDER TO COUNT By the end of June 2025, solar capacity, aided by supportive policies and affordable raw materials has been a cornerstone of China’s rapid renewable energy capacity expansion. Renewables now provide a total 1.67 billion kilowatts, based on NEA data. This far surpasses the government’s original goal of 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030. From January to July 2025, the renewable power generation increased by 10.6%, reaching approximately 30% of all electricity generated. When nuclear power is included, the total share of non-fossil fuel electricity reached 35%, still falling short of the government’s target of 39% non-fossil fuel electricity generation by the end of 2025. However, a renewables analyst said that actual wind and solar power generation in China is higher than official statistics. Lauri Myllyvirta, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), notes that the monthly data from NBS on wind and solar generation is now highly restricted. For instance, the data excludes “distributed” rooftop solar and smaller centralized solar plants, meaning it only accounts for roughly half of the actual solar power being generated. Over the last decade, the share of coal-fired power has dropped by about 10%, sitting at 65% in July 2025. Meanwhile, the share of gas-fired power has remained steady at around 3% from 2015 to 2024 and did not decrease with the decline in thermal power’s overall share. REDIFINING ENERGY SOURCE ROLES Based on official government statements, we can see how different energy types are being positioned within China’s energy mix. Renewables: President Xi Jinping has emphasized that national energy security will depend on new energy sources. This aligns with the rapid growth of wind and solar, as well as new projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station. A research shows that wind and solar generation shares can increase to 41% by 2030 and 49% by 2035. Coal: Coal is designated as the “ballast stone” for energy supply. Coal-fired power are filling the gap between total electricity demand and the generation from cleaner sources like wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear. As clean energy generation grows, coal’s role as a gap-filler is shrinking. Gas: Gas-fired power is transitioning from a supplement to coal to a flexible regulator. In coastal regions with numerous LNG terminals and high-tech manufacturing, it remains a critical insurance policy during peak demand seasons. This is why Guangdong, China’s largest electricity-consuming province, recently increased its capacity price for gas-fired generators.  GAS-FIRED POWER GENERATION TO RISE  Despite the significant growth in renewable energy generation, gas-fired power remains crucial for grid stability and is expected to continue growing until 2045. NEA is pushing for a “natural gas and electricity market synergy mechanism.” This will ensure reasonable returns for gas-fired power through capacity compensation and ancillary service markets. Furthermore, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and NEA are promoting “natural gas and renewable energy enterprise joint operations.” This includes “wind-solar-gas-storage integration” projects, which use the fast start-up capabilities of gas-fired units to compensate for the intermittent nature of wind and solar. In 2024, China installed 19.5 gigawatts of new gas-fired power capacity, more than any other country in the world, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM). A report from Sinopec predicts that China’s gas-fired power generation is projected to continue growing, reaching 550 billion kWh in 2030, accounting for nearly 4% of the country’s total power generation. It will then peak around 2045, with the share down to below 3%. During this period, as variable renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower see rapid growth and energy storage infrastructure remains underdeveloped, gas-fired power generation is poised for a significant window of opportunity, leading to a rapid increase in installed capacity. CHALLENGES TO LNG DEMAND While gas-fired power is carving out a new, stable role, LNG demand in other sectors is facing headwinds. The domestic heavy-duty truck market is seeing a shifting landscape. From January to July 2025, sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks, electric to fuels like hydrogen, skyrocketed by 191% year-on-year, making up 13% of all sales, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) data. Meanwhile, sales of natural gas fueled trucks declined by 14%. The decline is driven by both costs and policies . First, although international natural gas prices have fallen from their high last year, domestic end-user prices remain relatively high. This has narrowed the price advantage over diesel compared to previous years. Second, a shift in policy has redirected government support toward new energy vehicles as the primary solution for carbon reduction, phasing out subsidies for natural gas trucks. Hence, logistics companies are increasingly preferring new energy vehicle models, which offer lower long-term operating costs and are better suited for regions with strict emission standards, thus squeezing the market for natural gas trucks. A domestic transport company has calculated that the operating cost of an electric heavy-duty truck is only one-third that of a diesel vehicle. Even if LNG prices stabilize between yuan (CNY) 4,000 and 4,300/tonne, and the price difference between oil and gas narrows to within 2 yuan, LNG heavy-duty trucks are not as economically attractive compared to new energy trucks.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 22 August. OUTLOOK: INSIGHT: US chems get regulatory relief amid rail setbacks The US government has slowed down the introduction of new regulations and provided the chemical industry with some significant policy wins, although fostering rail competition had some setbacks. INSIGHT: Global ammonia prices to keep rising on tight supply, improving India, US demand Global ammonia prices are forecast to keep rising through the rest of the year (please see Chart 1 below), primarily on tight supply caused by limited Russian exports and strengthening fertilizer demand in India and the US. CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil rebounds on higher US crude inventory drawdown Crude futures climbed on Wednesday after a larger-than-expected US crude inventory draw signaled stronger demand, while optimism over a rapid Russia-Ukraine peace breakthrough eased. TRUCKING: US July volumes rise from June, but forecasts remain weighted to downside Trucking activity in July rose slightly from the previous month, but forecasts from some analysts still have risks weighted more to the downside than the upside for the rest of the year. US to impose lower tariff on EU imports of chemical precursors The US will impose much lower tariffs on EU imports of chemical precursors, while it will maintain elevated rates on auto imports, according to details released on Thursday of their trade framework. US Fed signals rate cut despite tariff uncertainty, chemical stocks jump US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled an upcoming interest rate cut in his highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, sending economically sensitive stocks such as chemicals higher.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 22 August. INSIGHT: Europe could draw PP from US in zero-tariff scenario The US could potentially start to export polypropylene (PP) to Europe if tariffs on imports are scrapped, overturning the current status quo of 6.5% duties which largely prevents this trade flow. EU TiO2 industry welcomes ECJ annulment of carcinogen designation The European titanium dioxide (TiO2) industry and key coatings sector are breathing a sigh of relief, after the European Court of Justice’s decision to uphold the General Court’s annulment of the EU TiO2 classification of some forms of the material as carcinogenic. Europe BDO fundamentals remain stagnant but challenges mount amid antidumping probe While the fundamentals of low demand and sufficient supply have yet to change for the European butanediol (BDO) market, players are concerned about the long-term health of the industry, as well as the potential outcomes of the ongoing antidumping investigation by the European Commission into imports from China, Saudi Arabia and the US. INSIGHT: Global ammonia prices to keep rising on tight supply, improving India, US demand Global ammonia prices are forecast to keep rising through the rest of the year, primarily on tight supply caused by limited Russian exports and strengthening fertilizer demand in India and the US. INSIGHT: UK bioethanol plants face closure after government denies bailout post-US trade deal The UK government’s refusal to offer any industry rescue package has effectively delivered the final nail in the coffin for its largest domestic producer, Vivergo Fuels, with its plant now potentially set to cease operations.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 22 Aug. India imposes final duties on PVC imports from seven origins By Aswin Kondapally 18-Aug-25 11:07 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) released on 14 August the final findings of its antidumping investigation into imports of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) suspension resins from seven origins. INSIGHT: Global ammonia prices to keep rising on tight supply, improving India, US demand By Bee Lin Chow 19-Aug-25 11:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global ammonia prices are forecast to keep rising through the rest of the year, primarily on tight supply caused by limited Russian exports and strengthening fertilizer demand in India and the US. Asia ACN cost pressure mounts, supply expected to tighten in Q4 By Corey Chew 19-Aug-25 13:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia acrylonitrile (ACN) supply is expected to become tight from regional sources in Q4, with the yearly maintenances of South Korea and Taiwan producers commencing in October. INSIGHT: Most Asian petrochemical prices expected to fall in August By Lina Xu 20-Aug-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Most of Asia’s petrochemical prices are expected to fall in August due to the lull in demand in the off season. Northeast Asia market sentiment is forecast to remain bearish for the rest of the summer. UPDATE: S Korea petrochemical firms agree to restructure, cut capacity – govt By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Aug-25 15:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Ten South Korean petrochemical firms have agreed to restructure their operations which will include cutting their overall annual naphtha-cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tonnes, government statements said on Wednesday. US tariff hike to dent India VAM imports By Hwee Hwee Tan 21-Aug-25 10:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s demand for vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is contracting as the garment industry – one of the largest end-user segment for the product – took a hit from the threat of a doubling in US tariff. INTERVIEW: Indonesia’s Butonas planned $1bn methanol plant to reduce import reliance – president By Jonathan Yee 21-Aug-25 13:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesia’s fledgling Butonas Petrochemical is preparing a 1 million tonnes/year methanol plant in Bojonegoro, East Java, to fill the country’s domestic demand and national energy goals from 2029, according to the company’s president Ignatius Tallulembang. INSIGHT: China’s ethylene industry focuses on enhancing competitiveness By Amy Yu 22-Aug-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China-based producers are moving to close more inefficient ethylene units, such as older, more polluting, and economically unviable ones, as part of a drive to increase the competitiveness of the sector.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US continued to fall this week, with rates to the US West Coast nearing where they were when carriers began avoiding the Red Sea because of attacks by Houthi rebels. The sudden move to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal in November 2023 forced carriers to use the much longer route around the southern tip of the African continent and sent rates soaring because the longer voyage tightened capacity. Rates to the USWC from supply chain advisors Drewry fell by 3% this week, as shown in the following chart, and are now just about $75/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) higher than in November 2023. Container rates continue to fall as transpacific trade is experiencing a weak peak season after many retailers pulled forward volumes to get ahead of US tariffs, and capacity is ample even as carriers use blank sailings and other tools in efforts to support the falling rates. Drewry expects rates to be less volatile in the coming weeks as shippers respond to a decelerating US economy and increased tariff costs by scaling back on procurement. Drewry is still forecasting rates to fall further in the second half of the year as it anticipates the supply-demand balance to weaken further. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos fell by 8% to the West Coast and are about $140/FEU from where they were in November 2023. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said daily rates are level with where they were at the start of the Red Sea crisis. The SCFI Shanghai-USWC rate fell 4% week on week to $1,759/FEU and is now down 69% since 1 June amid sluggish peak season demand, despite carrier efforts to curb capacity on the route. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STEADY-TO-LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady lower this week with rates on the transatlantic route edging lower on the high side as most trade lanes are facing downward pressure. The route to NW Europe remains relatively inactive and a tighter position list has kept the rates firm. Several market participants were seen quoting styrene and methanol to the region. There have only been a few cargos fixed. There continues to be downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are still in wait-and-see mode. Besides COA (contract) cargo there is very little seen in the market.  Also, there are very few new spot enquiries, therefore the shorter tonnage list supports the rates. The usual spot cargoes of methanol from Jose to China are the only ones reported, leaving methanol requirements from the region active to Asia. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane remains unusually quiet and in turn rates seem to have steadied. Fewer fixtures were noted this week, and the lack of prompt availability seems to indicate supply is somewhat tight and therefore owners appear to be cautious about letting rates decline any further. The USG to India route has not seen an uptick in inquiries over the last week with no confirmed fixtures, leading to lower rates along this trade lane. There was only one new inquiry for September dates. Along with the other regions, freight rates are widely viewed as softer. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

LONDON (ICIS)–A mix of regulatory changes, market fundamentals and global economic factors is transforming the Asian biodiesel and glycerine markets. In this latest podcast, Asia biodiesel editor Evangeline Cheung and glycerine senior editor Helen Yan joins their Europe counterpart Nazif Nazmul to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. Firm palm oil fundamentals and regulatory support strengthen biodiesel market despite mixed demand Recent drop in glycerine spot prices linked to a slump in China’s epichlorohydrin (ECH) market Market awaits further clarification on EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), impact on US tariff-led oleochemical trade follow Biodiesel, which can be derived from vegetable oils, animal fats and other waste-based bio-feedstocks, is used as fuel in diesel engines. Glycerine is mainly used in personal and oral care products such as skincare creams, toothpaste and mouthwash. It is also used in food products, either as glycerine directly or one of its derivatives such as glycerol monostearate.

LONDON (ICIS)–With tariff rates between most countries and the US now agreed in principle, the landscape ahead remains rocky, with little hope for recovery in the near future as players struggle with overcapacity and low utilization rates. Global trade increasingly driven by politics Years of low inflation have distorted markets by allowing unprofitable companies across sectors to stay in business Global trade terms clearer but impacts to supply chains still unfolding Demographic shifts continue to rise up policymaker agendas Trade relationships and path of AI development are key factors for the sector in future At current trajectory, chemicals down-cycle could run for years In this Think Tank podcast, Insight Editor Tom Brown interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.