LONDON (ICIS)–UK inflation increased in July to its highest level in 18 months, according to official data on Wednesday. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to July, up from 3.6% in June. The increase was mainly driven by transport, particularly air fares, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement. Monthly inflation has generally trended up over the past year, with the July 2025 figure the highest recorded since January 2024, when the rate was 4.0%. This current rate is way above the Bank of England’s target of close to but not exceeding 2%. At its latest meeting, the bank’s monetary policy committee cut interest rates as it tries to balance a sluggish economy against rising inflation.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s overall exports in July jumped by 6.8% year on year, due to front-loaded shipments before the US’ reciprocal tariffs took effect on 7 August. The export growth reversed two months of contraction and was primarily driven by a 22.5% year on year jump in electrical & electronic (E&E) exports, preliminary official data showed on 19 August. Total imports in July grew 0.6% year on year, resulting in a trade surplus of ringgit (M$) 14.98 billion ($3.54 billion). July exports to the US grew 3.8% year on year to M$18.47 billion amid higher exports of E&E products, manufactures of metal and rubber products. Exports to other major trading partners such as mainland China (6.8% year on year), Singapore (22.2%) and Taiwan (46.6%) also grew in July amid front-loading of shipments. Chemical and chemical product exports shrank 10.7% year on year in July. Although Malaysia’s prospects were boosted by the US reducing ‘reciprocal’ tariffs to 19% from 25% previously, its trade outlook is still subject to downside risks for the rest of the year, said Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research in a note on 19 August. Uncertainty persists regarding US-China trade talks after reciprocal tariffs were further suspended to 10 November, and the effect of 19% tariffs will be reflected starting this month, UOB said. In light of these downside risks, the bank kept its 2025 full-year export growth forecast at 3.8% tentatively, down from the country’s 5.8% shipment growth in 2024. Visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy ($1 = M$4.23)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s chemical exports fell by 7.3% year on year to yen (Y) 961 billion in July, weighing on overall shipments abroad which declined for the third straight month, official data showed on Wednesday. Exports of organic chemicals fell by 19.4% year on year to Y149.3 billion in July, while shipments of plastic materials dipped by 2.3% to Y296.8 billion, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance. By volume, exports of plastic materials fell by 4.0% year on year to 452,847 tonnes in August. Japan’s overall exports fell by 2.6% year on year to Y9.36 trillion in July, while imports were 7.5% lower at Y9.48 trillion. This resulted in a trade deficit of around Y118 billion last month. Japanese exports of automobiles and motor vehicle parts to the US plunged 27.1% and 17.4%, respectively, in July after Washington imposed a 10% baseline tariff in April on top of a separate 25% duty on cars. A 15% reciprocal tariff on Japanese imports as well as automobiles and auto parts took effect on 7 August following a trade deal reached between Tokyo and Washington in July. Elsewhere, Japan’s exports to China fell by 3.5% year on year in July, continuing the losing streak for the fifth straight month, while those to the EU slipped 3.4% and those to southeast Asia were down by 2.9%. Japan’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected annualized rate of 1.0% in the second quarter, driven by robust exports that weathered trade tensions with the US, according to preliminary government data released last week.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Is AI a new dawn for humanity, or a bubble waiting to burst? Is the trade war a mere inconvenience, or a threat to global stability? In a world filled with contradictory “facts” and endless noise, analysts can no longer rely on single forecasts. This is especially true in our post-Chemicals Supercycle world, where complexity is the only certainty. This is why I believe in scenario planning—it’s the only sensible approach. My latest analysis explores three potential futures for the US and global economies over the next three years, shaped by the interplay of AI innovation and trade policy, with a focus of course on the petrochemical implications. Best-Case: Pragmatism PrevailsTrade normalises, AI focuses on practical applications. Petrochemical markets see booming demand and stability, speeding up rebalancing and reducing the need for extensive plant closures. Medium-Case: The Divided EconomyPersistent trade friction meets continued AI hype. Petrochemicals see trade routes shift and demand growth slow, requiring more extensive capacity closures. Worst-Case: Political ParalysisA catastrophic double shock: a trade war that chokes off supply chains and an “AI winter” that bursts the tech bubble. Petrochemical markets face fragmentation and a deep contraction, forcing massive capacity shutdowns. Understanding these divergent outcomes is critical for strategic decision-making. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US government has slowed down the introduction of new regulations and provided the chemical industry with some significant policy wins, although fostering rail competition had some setbacks. CHEMS GET BREAK FROM NEW REGULATIONSThe administration of President Donald Trump has introduced a policy that is requiring federal agencies to purge 10 regulations if they want to adopt a new one. The new policy is discouraging federal agencies from introducing new regulations, said Eric Byer, president and CEO of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD). “They know if they issue regulations, they have to find 10 they have to whack.” The federal government is also focused on purging regulations that are duplicative or unnecessary, Byer said. Many agencies that are key for chemical regulations are pursuing this, including the Department of Transportation (DoT), the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Notably, the EPA embarked on a widespread review of regulations that directly affect the chemical industry. Plants that rely on ethylene oxide (EO) to sterilize medical equipment no longer need to comply with the EO provision in the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP). The EPA also allowed several chemical plants to be excluded from the Hazardous Organic NESHAP (HON) rule. Many of them produce commodity plastics and petrochemicals, as shown here. Recently, the House Appropriations Committee of the House of Representatives have included language in an appropriations bill that will prohibit funding the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) of the EPA, according to the ACC. The IRIS program has led to what the ACC describes as overly restrictive regulations governing formaldehyde, EO, hexavalent chromium and inorganic arsenic. A bill introduced in Congress would permanently prohibit the use of IRIS assessments in federal rulemaking. ACC GOALS FOR TSCAThe ACC is targeting provisions in nation’s safety program that are causing the EPA to miss deadlines to approve new chemicals for commercial use and that is making reviews for existing chemicals more cumbersome. The program is known as the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). For new chemicals, the ACC wants the New Chemical Framework Rule to be rescinded because it fixes none of the problems that is causing the EPA to consistently miss its 90-day deadline to complete reviews for new chemicals. For existing chemicals, the ACC flagged the Risk Evaluation Framework Rule, which, among other things, assumed that employees were not properly using personal protective equipment (PPE) when handling chemicals. SETBACK FOR US RAIL COMPETITIONAn appeals court had recently suspended the nation’s reciprocal switching program and sent it back for review to the Surface Transportation Board (STB), the nation’s main railroad regulator. The chemical industry has supported reciprocal switching and argued that it would open rail carriers to more competition and improve service. Under reciprocal switching, one railroad carrier handles a customer’s cargo on behalf of another railroad carrier. The STB finalized a rule in mid-2024 that was intended to make reciprocal switching easier to request when rail service was proven to be inadequate. The new rule was challenged by railroad companies, and the metrics used to measure inadequate service failed to pass muster before the US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. A better approach could be focusing on competition instead of service, said Jeff Sloan, senior director of regulatory affairs for the ACC. The STB can make service or competition the rationale for granting reciprocal switching. Competition may not face the same restrictions that left the current rule vulnerable to lawsuits. Moreover, the administration of US President Donald Trump has placed a priority on fostering competition, Sloan said. REPORTED RAIL MERGERS WOULD ERODE COMPETITIONCompetition could erode further if the rail industry further consolidates as reported by the media. The Wall Street Journal reported that Union Pacific is in preliminary talks to acquire Norfolk Southern. Reuters reported on 22 July that BNSF Railway hired Goldman Sachs as a banker while CSX is seeking a banker. Warren Buffet, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, which owns BNSF, later denied BNSF is working with Goldman to acquire a competitor, in an interview with CNBC. Those companies make up four of the six Class I freight railroads in North America. If those mergers took place, they would reduce the number to four. “These mergers end up costing time and money for our businesses on the shipper side,” Byer said. The recent merger between Canada Pacific (CP) and Kansas City Southern has already compromised service, according to a 17 June letter from the chairman of the STB. Customers are suffering from delays, missed switches and congestion as part of the merger’s technology changeover, according to the letter. CHEMS MAY GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REPEAL SUPERFUND TAXThe chemical industry with another opportunity to repeal the Superfund tax if the House of Representatives considers another tax bill in the autumn, Byer said. The tax imposed duties on several building-block chemicals and their derivatives. The chemical industry has advocated for the removal of the tax, and the tax bill offered it one of its best chances to get it repealed. The chemical industry’s last opportunity to repeal the tax was in the tax bill passed earlier in 2025. It made many favorable provisions of 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent. However, it did not repeal the Superfund tax, since legislators did not want to overburden the bill with too many provisions. Other opportunities could be an omnibus bill in the autumn or another tax bill in the spring, Byer said. US HAS OPENING TO REVISIT CHEMS ANTITERRORISM PROGRAMThere are tentative signs that the US could have a chance to revive its national chemical-site antiterrorism program, known as the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS). The program lapsed two years ago, leaving the chemical industry without a national anti-terrorism program at a time of heightened geopolitical risk. A new representative, Andrew Garbarino (Republican-New York) was chosen as the next chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. The new chairman could create an opening to reconsider reviving the CFATS program. Additional reporting by Joseph Chang Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows US Congress. Image by Lucky-photographer

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 15 August. Oil falls ahead of US-Russia talks as China tariffs deadline looms Oil prices on Monday extended the steep losses seen last week, as upcoming talks between the US and Russia on 15 August raised the prospect of a ceasefire pact with Ukraine and an increase in global supply. Brazil’s Unipar cushioned from US tariffs but end markets feeling the heat – CEO Unipar faces minimal direct exposure to US tariffs but is suffering indirect effects as global supply chains are hit by trade tensions creating high levels of uncertainty, the CEO at the Brazilian chloralkali and vinyls producer said. China, US agree to suspend reciprocal tariffs until 10 Nov China and the US have agreed to suspend tariffs on each other’s goods for an additional 90 days to 10 November, following US President Donald Trump’s executive order signed on 11 August. US Celanese expects continued soft demand from most end markets Celanese will continue to focus on self-help measures in the second half of the year amid continued soft demand across most end markets, the US-based acetyls and engineered materials producer said on Tuesday. Higher OPEC+ supply to fuel global crude market imbalance – IEA The supply-demand imbalance in global crude markets is set to increase sharply as producing cartel OPEC+ unwinds output cuts from September while new sanctions on the third and fifth-largest producers hit those countries’ supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. Brazil launches R30 billion ‘Sovereign Brazil Plan’ to counter US tariffs Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed late on Wednesday a provisional measure with support measures for Brazilian exporters facing US tariffs totaling Brazilian reais (R) 30 billion ($5.5 billion). INSIGHT: US tariff policy, uncertainty to continue hitting chemical distributors US tariff policy will continue to negatively impact US chemical distributors, adding costs and complexity that will especially hit smaller and medium-size businesses, said the head of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) and panelists at the 2025 ChemEdge conference in Louisville, Kentucky. ACD to fight ‘like crazy’ against Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern mega rail merger – CEO The Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) will fight “like crazy” against the proposed mega merger between US rail giants Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern in what could become the first US transcontinental railroad, said the CEO of the ACD.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 August. INSIGHT: M&A, AI may drive transformation in high-cost regions With Europe and other high-cost regions suffering from a prolonged period of low profitability, poor demand and intense competition from new mainly China-based capacities, the industry has entered a painful period of readjustment. OUTLOOK: Europe acetic acid, VAM to face ongoing weak demand, lengthy supply despite low domestic rates The European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) markets are likely to face continued muted demand through the second half of the year, with lengthy supply unless there are significant unplanned outages. Higher OPEC+ supply to fuel global crude market imbalance – IEA The supply-demand imbalance in global crude markets is set to increase sharply as producing cartel OPEC+ unwinds output cuts from September while new sanctions on the third and fifth-largest producers hit those countries’ supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. OUTLOOK: Europe BD demand stable-to-low, cracker closures will crimp CC4 supply longer term The European butadiene (BD) market started 2025 off with a fairly positive outlook but the second quarter was clouded by an uncertain US trade policy, impacting demand and pressuring prices globally. OUTLOOK: Weak demand, long supply to weigh on Europe nylon market in H2 2025 Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face persistent low demand in the second half of 2025, on top of the seasonal dip in the immediate short term.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports fell by 23.4% year on year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.05 billion in July, while overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) contracted more than expected as US tariffs weighed on sentiment ahead of their implementation in August. Singapore’s NODX fell by 4.6% year on year in July, swinging from the revised 12.9% rise in June, according to Enterprise Singapore data on Monday. Exports of non-electronic products such as pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals declined 6.6% year on year as volatility in pharmaceuticals weighed, which on its own, fell 18.9% year on year. NODX to the US contracted 42.7% year on year in July primarily due to a 93.5% decrease in pharmaceutical shipping. Singapore’s non-oil exports to China and Indonesia also fell in July, although NODX to the EU, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong grew. Singapore is a leading petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with more than 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Aster Chemicals & Energy, based at its Jurong Island hub. Amid US tariffs on most of its trading partners taking effect on 7 August and stronger than expected economic performances, Singapore upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5-2.5% from 0-2% previously on 12 August. At the same time, the government expects significant uncertainty in the second half of 2025 as front-loading of exports moderates and geopolitical tensions remain. US President Donald Trump is meeting Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, to discuss a peace deal for the Ukraine-Russia war, but much remains up in the air as to how this will be achieved. US trade talks with China and India, two of the world’s largest economies, are also ongoing, and whether there will be a deal will determine much on how the economy will shape up in the coming years. Meanwhile, trading partners are still awaiting US executive orders to lower agreed tariffs on commodities such as automotives and steel, which remain at a hefty 25% and 50%, respectively, despite deals being struck to reduce them in July. Singapore, too, is looking out for exemption or concessions given for the potential higher tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, according to OCBC Global Markets Research in a note on 12 August. “We tip full-year 2025 NODX growth should stage a recovery towards the 2% year on year handle this year given the healthy 1H25 performance, up from the tepid 0.2% year on year growth last year,” OCBC said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 August 2025. Philippines’ JG Summit continues strategic review of mothballed plant By Nurluqman Suratman4-Aug-25 15:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Philippines-based producer JG Summit has transitioned to the second phase of a strategic review which will determine the future of its mothballed petrochemical plant. S Korea’s YNCC receives funding from DL Holdings amid bankruptcy threat By Jonathan Yee 13-Aug-25 17:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–DL Holdings, a 50% co-owner of South Korea-based producer Yeochun NCC (YNCC), will raise about won (W) 200 billion ($145 million) to fund the struggling subsidiary by selling its shares, it said in regulatory filings on 11 August. China petchem market down in July on demand; near-term support absent By Yvonne Shi 13-Aug-25 14:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemicals market declined overall in July, which is traditionally a low season for bulk chemical products demand, against relatively long supply due to limited turnarounds. Asia C3 outlook clouded by poor downstream margins despite recent supply disruption By Julia Tan 12-Aug-25 20:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian propylene market faces a delicate balance in the months ahead. While supply disruptions in China and South Korea are lending short-term support to prices, weak downstream margins and growing competition in southeast Asia may temper gains. Singapore updates 2025 GDP growth forecast as US tariffs take effect By Jonathan Yee 12-Aug-25 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore has upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5-2.5% from 0-2% previously, amid better-than-expected economic performance in Q2 2025, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Tuesday. INSIGHT: China marks global milestone with world’s largest green ammonia plant, more capacities to follow despite challenges By Bee Lin Chow 12-Aug-25 09:34 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China marked a key milestone in July when the world’s largest carbon-free ammonia plant came on stream in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, and more low carbon ammonia plants are expected to start up in the region despite challenging processes. Oil falls ahead of US-Russia talks as China tariffs deadline looms By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Aug-25 12:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices on Monday extended the steep losses seen last week, as upcoming talks between the US and Russia on 15 August raised the prospect of a ceasefire pact with Ukraine and an increase in global supply.