MADRID (ICIS)–EU chemicals will lose out to US competitors under the tariff regime agreed in the latest US-EU trade deal, which avoids “for the moment” a trade war, Germany’s chemicals trade group VCI said this week. Both EU and US consumers to lose out – VCI ‘Structural imbalance’ to weaken EU chemicals further – France Chimie More robust trade barriers need to be implemented – Spain’s Feique Deeply-integrated transatlantic chemicals trade to suffer – Europe-wide Cefic Other trade groups such as France Chimie were also skeptical about the deal, although it noted “contradictory statements” from the US and the EU, while full details remain unknown. The Europe-wide trade group Cefic said the deal “appears to have averted the worst-case scenario” but will still hurt European producers’ competitiveness compared with their US peers and called for “further details” as soon as possible. Feique, the Spanish trade group, said the deal will negatively impact on Spanish chemical exports to the US and on exports of intermediates to other EU countries that have the US as their final destination – “eroding trade and investment” flows. STORM BETTER THAN HURRICANEGermany’s VCI, representing the EU’s largest chemicals producer and a key, export-intensive sector for Germany’s manufacturing sector, was relieved that a full-blown trade war had been avoided but added that EU chemical competitiveness will be hurt given the “high” tariffs that the industry faces. “Anyone expecting a hurricane is grateful for a storm. Further escalation was avoided. Nevertheless, the price is high for both sides. Europe’s exports are losing competitiveness. US customers are paying the tariffs,” said VCI executive director Wolfgang Grosse Entrup. “From the chemical industry’s perspective, the agreed tariffs are too high. At the same time, however, it is good that even higher tariffs were avoided. Now the German government must act even more consistently to offset this additional burden,” he added. VCI called for more talks where chemical tariffs in the US and the EU are “significantly reduced” and facilitate the “reindustrialization and transformation” of the chemical sectors in both the EU and the US. ‘PRECISE CONTENT’ NEEDEDAll trade groups called for further details of the deal to be published as soon as possible. However, the latest news has been enough for most to be worried. France Chimie said it was observing with “seriousness and concern” details published so far, saying in principle, it would put EU chemicals at a disadvantage. In addition, it said there had been “contradictory statements” from both parties and called for the “precise content” of the agreement to be released as soon as possible. It was very troubled, it added, about the terms and conditions which will determine trade in chemical products and active pharmaceutical ingredients due to the lack of detail. “France Chimie notes with concern that, according to the information provided, the agreement would introduce a difference in treatment between US chemical companies and our European companies, which would be subject to additional costs for exporting to the US,” said France Chimie. “This structural imbalance would seriously penalize an already weakened European chemical industry, unless the ‘zero for zero’ system is extended to all chemical products.” France Chimie said it was essential for the European Commission – the EU’s executive arm – to strengthen measures announced in its action plan earlier in July, and insisted it was “urgent” to implement them. “[The implementation is key] in order to restore operating conditions to the level of competitiveness of other competing areas for European manufacturers. This involves in particular: the guarantee of access to decarbonized energy at a competitive cost, an essential condition for preserving industrial activity in Europe. “Reduction of taxes and charges on industrial sites, to align them with international standards; [and] simplification of the European regulatory framework and the fight against national over-transpositions.” ‘AGILITY’ TO IMPLEMENT TRADE BARRIERSSpain’s trade group Feique said, subject to full details, the deal would “exert significant pressure” on Spanish chemical exports to the US, which in 2024 reached €3.5 billion of total exports of €59.2 billion, including industrial chemicals and pharmaceuticals. It said impact was likely to be higher on exports of commodity chemicals rather than specialized products due to their greater exposure to international competition. However, it said the EU should work hard to lower the tariffs faced by the chemicals industry. “It is extremely important for the sector (as for many other industries) to work on including chemicals in the ‘zero-for-zero’ agreement, and even to develop a comprehensive and balanced sectoral agreement that guarantees favorable trading conditions, increases predictability, and strengthens the competitiveness of our industry,” said Feique. “The Commission must redouble its efforts to develop the EU’s free trade agenda, with the aim of opening new markets. In this context, Europe must also be more agile in implementing trade defense measures, especially by monitoring strategic products and applying anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures when necessary.” Earlier this month, director general Juan Labat told ICIS that the EU must  redouble efforts to protect its domestic industry, lowering taxes and upping public support for energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, and tackle the high energy cost problem. “Despite increased renewable generation and lower operating costs, electricity prices have doubled compared to pre-pandemic levels, and gas prices have consolidated at the same rate, fundamentally affecting basic industrial activities across the continent and seriously jeopardizing strategic autonomy,” concluded Feique. INVESTMENTS HINDEREDIn Brussels, the EU capital, trade group Cefic said it required more details about the deal before it could make a complete assessment, but it warned that tariffs on chemicals could jeopardize investments on both side of the Atlantic. However, it said the inclusion of some chemicals in the ‘zero-for-zero’ agreement was an “encouraging” sign on which the Commission could continue building upon, adding “beneficial trade terms” were needed for all chemicals. “While the deal appears to have averted the worst-case scenario, the additional US tariffs on EU exports risk further eroding the competitiveness of the EU chemical industry. This is another reminder that the recently published Chemical Industry Action Plan needs to be urgently and fully implemented. There is no time to waste,” said Cefic. “Additional tariffs hinder trade and investment flows across the Atlantic. This is highly problematic for such an integrated transatlantic chemical industry with a significant amount of intra-industry and intra-company trade. Raw and input materials are regularly being shipped back and forth across the Atlantic, adding value at each stage of production.” Front page picture: Chemicals park in Marl, in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia Source: Hans Blossey/imageBROKER/Shutterstock Focus article by Jonathan Lopez

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US is approaching a 1 August deadline to conclude tariff negotiations with several countries, after which it will likely proceed with more duties on specific products such as lumber, copper and pharmaceuticals. Earnings for US chemicals have already fallen because of the uncertainty caused by US trade policy. Dow cut its dividend in half and reported a Q2 net loss of $801 million after proposed tariffs caused exports of polyethylene (PE) to evaporate in April. Olin warned that it is vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs that Brazil could impose on US imports of caustic soda. WHERE NATIONAL TARIFFS STANDThe US has already reached frameworks with Japan and the EU, two of its major trading partners. Talks are ongoing with India, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Brazil as the US approaches a 1 August deadline to conclude talks. The following table shows the tariffs that the US proposed and the subsequent trade agreements that it announced. Country Proposed rate Trade Deal Algeria 30% pending Bangladesh 35% pending Bosnia and Herzegovina 30% pending Brazil 50% pending Brunei 25% pending Cambodia 36% pending Canada 35% pending EU 30% 15% Indonesia 32% 19% Iraq 30% pending Japan 25% 15% Kazakhstan 25% pending Laos 40% pending Libya 30% pending Malaysia 25% pending Mexico 30% pending Moldova 25% pending Myanmar (Burma) 40% pending Philippines 20% 19% Serbia 35% pending South Africa 30% pending South Korea 25% pending Sri Lanka 30% pending Thailand 36% pending Tunisia 25% pending On 12 August, the US will reach another deadline to reach a trade agreement with China to prevent the two countries from reviving triple digit tariff increases. The US proposed these tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). A pending court case could eliminate the legal basis for the IEEPA-based tariffs. If the courts overturn the national tariffs, the US could resort to other provisions to introduce new duties, although this will take time and they may not be as broad as the IEEPA-based tariffs. US PROPOSES POLITICAL TARIFFS ON BRAZILThe US proposed tariffs on Brazilian imports were an exception because they were based on the nation’s politics. The US actually has a trade surplus with Brazil, unlike the other nations that were targets for tariffs. The US use of tariffs to influence other countries’ policies creates the possibility that it could employ similar tactics to other countries – even if it already negotiated trade agreements. WHERE SECTORAL TARIFFS STANDThe US is also considering tariffs on product families under section 232. These tariffs are not covered by the IEEPA lawsuit so they will prove more durable. Under section 232, the government investigates whether imports of specific products threaten national security. The US has 270 days to file a report on the investigation, after which the president can choose to impose tariffs or take other actions in response to the findings of the report. The following table summarizes the pending section 232 investigations and the deadlines to complete them. Product Start of investigation Report Due Copper 10-Mar 5-Dec Timber, lumber 10-Mar 5-Dec Semiconductors 1-Apr 27-Dec Pharmaceuticals 1-Apr 27-Dec Medium duty trucks 22-Apr 17-Jan Heavy duty trucks 22-Apr 17-Jan Critical minerals 22-Apr 17-Jan Commercial aircraft 1-May 26-Jan Jet engines 1-May 26-Jan Polysilicon 1-Jul 28-Mar Unmanned aircraft systems 1-Jul 28-Mar Source: Bureau of Industry and Security The US has also broadened and increased tariffs on previously completed investigations, as shown in the following table. Product Tariff Automobiles 25% Auto parts 25% Steel 50% Aluminium 50% Source: President These tariffs have exceptions based on the country of origin and their portion of domestically produced content. CHINESE TRADE RESTRICTIONS PERSISTThe US and China had opened a new front in their trade war by restricting exports of critical materials. China had since resumed shipments of rare earth minerals, and the US is allowing exports of ethane, a feedstock that some Chinese crackers use to make ethylene. However, China has apparently maintained restrictions on other critical minerals minerals. Among them, antimony is used as a catalyst to make polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and bismuth metal is used as a catalyst for polyurethanes and as a radiopaque additive for plastics used in medical devices. Since 3 December, China has banned the export of the following minerals: Antimony Gallium Germanium This strengthened the restrictions on antimony shipments that China imposed on 15 September 2024. Since 4 February, China has restricted shipments on the following minerals: Bismuth Molybdenum Indium Tellurium Tungsten US TARIFFS SLOW GROWTH, PARALYZE DECISION MAKINGThe on-again, off-again nature of US tariffs and their vague characteristics have injected uncertainty into the economy, causing companies and consumers to delay purchases and investment decisions. When the US does make an announcement about tariff rates, it is done on the president’s social media page with few details. Chemical companies have said that uncertainty has caused more disruptions to their businesses than the actual tariffs. They also do not know if their sizeable exports will be subject to retaliatory tariffs. All of this slows growth, and economists have lowered their forecasts for 2025 GDP following the tariff announcements. Businesses need certainty so they can plan, especially for small companies that bring in a couple of containers each quarter, said Eric Byer, president and CEO of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD). If the US can reach agreements with China, India, Canada and Mexico by the Labor Day holiday in September, that could go a long way in providing certainty to the economy, Byer said. The US needs to resolve its trade disputes soon because retailers and consumers will start planning for upcoming holidays, such as Halloween at the end of October and Christmas at the end of December, Byer said. Insight article by Al Greenwood

BARCELONA (ICIS)–The permanent closure of SABIC’s cracker and other facilities at Wilton, UK, shows how tough conditions are in Europe with recyclers also feeling the pinch. Closure of UK polymer recycling facilities has been a shock to the industry European recyclers find it hard to compete against imports, more support for local recycling needed Regulations are helping recycling sector, but more action needed Outlook for Europe recycling more positive than for base chemicals Chemical plant closures remove good quality jobs which are tough to replace Wilton, UK site is perfect for development of circular economy EU-US 15% tariff deal removes threat of 30% but many questions remain In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews James McLeary, managing director for Biffa Polymers and ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organizing regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here. Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight week ended on 28 July. Brazil chemicals faces long downturn as Braskem battles structural challenges – Moody’sBrazil’s petrochemicals sector is set to suffer a prolonged slump that will threaten profitability if government does not intervene, according to an analyst at credit ratings agency Moody’s. Brazil’s Petrobras wants a say in Tanure’s takeover bid for BraskemPetrobras has appealed to Brazil’s antitrust regulator CADE to secure its participation in Nelson Tanure’s bid to control petrochemicals major Braskem, according to the Brazilian state-owned energy major. Abiquim proposes increase in external common tariff on caustic soda in BrazilThe Brazilian Chemical Industry Association (Abiquim) has submitted a new request to the federal government seeking to raise the External Common Tariff (TEC) applied to imports of caustic soda in aqueous solution (NCM 2815.12.00), currently set at 7.2%, to 18%. US proposed 50% tariff on Brazil and threat of retaliation a concern – ACC officialThe proposed US tariff of 50% on imports from Brazil, and the potential for retaliation as Brazil has suggested is a major concern for the US chemical industry, said an American Chemistry Council (ACC) official. Mexico’s Orbia Q2 metrics worsen as markets remain depressedOrbia’s markets remain very challenging but there had been certain stabilization and “pockets” of growth in some segments, management at the Mexican chemicals producer said this week. Argentina’s macro indicators keep improving but currency pressures mount ahead of electionsArgentina’s economic indicators are showing mixed signals ahead of a mid-term election in which President Javier Milei puts many hopes to increase his party’s presence in parliament. INSIGHT: Brazil faces impasse over US tariffs, potential economic hit at R259 billionBrazil confronts a diplomatic deadlock over US tariffs with a week remaining before 50% levies take effect, while economic studies warn of the potential hit to GDP of up Brazilian reais (R) 259 billion ($47 billion) over 10 years if both countries implement reciprocal measures. US ‘political’ tariffs on Brazil may be reversed before 1 August – Moody’sThe latest US tariffs on Brazilian goods due to come into force on 1 August are related to “political” issues rather than trade and could still be revised or revoked, according to credit ratings agency Moody’s.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sika’s January-June 2025 profit decreased by 3.9% year on year amid a weaker US dollar, despite a sales increase in local currencies, the Switzerland-based international construction chemicals major said on Tuesday. in Swfr (million) Jan-Jun 2025 Jan-Jun 2024 % change Sales    5,676.4    5,834.8 –2.7 EBITDA    1,070.4 1,092.9 –2.1 Operating profit     798.1    822.2 –2.9 Profit after taxes      554.4        577.1 –3.9 Globally, Sika grew by 1.6% in local currencies for the first half of 2025, with 0.6% attributed to organic growth and 1.0% to acquisition effect. A weaker US dollar was predominantly responsible for high foreign currency impact, causing a foreign exchange loss of 4.3%, Sika said. Meanwhile, Sika acquired four companies – in Singapore, the UK, North America and Qatar – and commissioned seven new plants in 2025, including in Singapore, China and Ecuador. Economic conditions improved slightly across Europe in the first half of 2025, and the construction industry in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA region) is expected to grow 1.3% in 2025, Sika said. Sales in EMEA region increased by 1.9% in local currencies, down from 13.5% in the same period last year, with strong growth recorded in the Middle East and Africa. In the Americas, Sika achieved a 3.5% increase in sales in local currencies, down from 15.1% in the previous year, amid market uncertainty wrought by “mixed signals regarding US trade policy”, the company said. In the Asia/Pacific region, sales declined by 1.7% in local currencies, compared with 8% growth in the same period last year. Significant challenges in the Chinese residential market persisted despite government support initiatives. Among southeast Asian countries, Vietnam and Indonesia showed strong growth due to public spending, and overall, the region displayed sluggishness in the real estate market. For Automotive, southeast Asia and India recorded double-digit growth. In January, Sika opened a plant in both Singapore and Xi’an, which is located in northwest China. “The newly built plant in Singapore specializes in the production of mortars, while the Xi’an facility manufactures a full range of products, including tile adhesives, cementitious waterproofing, and flooring solutions,” Sika said. For business year 2025, Sika aims for an EBITDA margin increase of between 19.5% and 19.8%, as well as a “modest sales increase in local currencies”. The EBITDA margin for the first six months of 2025 increased to 18.9% year on year, compared with 18.7% in the same period last year. “Amid uncertain market development, Sika will continue to grow above the market and is focusing on margin improvement,” the company said in its confirmation of strategic medium-term targets for 2028. ($1 = Swfr0.81)

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 25 July. EU risks losing industry for good, Spain’s April blackout costs chemicals €200 million – Feique The EU must improve its strategy to save basic industries like chemicals if it is to maintain a healthy industrial base, easing the regulatory burden and fixing the fundamental problem of high energy costs, according to the director general at Spain’s chemicals trade group Feique. Europe chemicals hit bottom, policy shift a long-term positive – Covestro CEO The European chemical industry has hit bottom and there are positive developments for structural reforms that could lead to a brighter future, said the CEO of Germany-based Covestro. European PVC, caustic soda contract prices stable to soft in July European caustic soda and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) contract prices are under pressure in July on the back of weak demand due to reduced activity during the seasonal summer lull and lengthy global markets. Economic bear indicators continue to proliferate ahead of August tariff day Global macroeconomic trends are pointing further down into the second half of the year ahead of the 1 August US tariffs date, with 2025 set to be one of the weakest years for oil demand growth in 16 years and downside risks prevailing. Europe methanol spot prices fall to near two-year lows, congestion ongoing European methanol spot prices sank to near two-year lows following continued oversupply and sluggish demand in July.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Can AI rewrite the future for economies facing ageing populations such China, where ICIS analysis suggests its population could fall to just 373 million by the end of this century? The traditional view of declining birth rates leading to inevitable economic decline might be about to change. AI, particularly Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), has the potential to fundamentally shift this paradigm: Runaway Innovation & Productivity: AI acts as an “idea multiplier,” driving exponential breakthroughs across sectors like biotechnology, green energy, and even AI itself. If automation becomes widespread and highly efficient, economic output could depend more on energy and infrastructure, rather than simply human population size. Abundance, Not Scarcity: Imagine a future of widespread abundance. AI-run factories could make manufactured goods, digital entertainment, and even food (via AI-optimised agriculture) incredibly affordable, potentially near-free. This could alleviate resource scarcity issues that often fuel geopolitical tensions and inflation. However, this transformative potential comes with significant considerations. While the opportunities are immense, so are the risks, such as widespread white-collar job displacement and the potential for extreme inequality. Ultimately, human agency is key. We have the power to shape AI’s trajectory: Redistribution Models: We can implement smart economic models like Universal Basic Income (UBI) or public ownership of AI capital to ensure the vast new wealth generated by AI is widely shared, rather than concentrating in the hands of a few. Strategic Investment: Focused investment in human-complementary sectors (like healthcare or education) and reskilling initiatives can ensure well-paid human jobs persist alongside AI. This future isn’t predetermined. How we choose to develop and govern AI will define global prosperity. What are your thoughts on how we can best harness AI’s potential for a more equitable and abundant world? Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–There is 76% of the US corn acreage now silking with soybean blooming also having lifted to a level of 76% according to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The amount of corn that is silking is ahead of the 75% rate achieved in 2024 but does trail the five-year average of 77%. Corn at the dough stage has climbed to 26%, which lags the 28% mark from last year but is above the five-year average of 24%. For corn conditions, the amount rated very poor is up to 2% with 5% still as poor and 20% as fair. The amount rated as good has decreased to 53% with excellent up to 20%. Soybean blooming has reached 76%, which is ahead of the 75% level from last season and equal to the five-year average of 76%. There is 41% of the soybean crop setting pods, which is slightly less than the 2024 rate of 42% and the five-year average of 42%. For soybean conditions the amount of very poor decreased to 1% with the crop listed as poor remaining at 5%. The amount of fair declined to 24% with the level of good up to 55% and excellent higher at 15%. Winter wheat harvest has reached 80% completed.

By Gretchen Ransow and Lars Kjoellesdal EU-US trade deal to include $750 billion in energy strategic-sector purchases Experts doubt objectives can be met Further details to be “sorted out” in coming weeks LONDON (ICIS)–The EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in strategic sectors, including gas, oil, nuclear fuel and AI chips over three years, as part of a trade deal announced on 27 July. However, experts have cast doubts about whether the overall figures can be achieved, as well as the timings for replacing Russian fuels, while market reaction was muted in the aftermath of the announcement. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told reporters the agreement would amount to $250 billion per year for the remain three years of US president Donald Trump’s term. She said this would help the EU replace Russian oil and gas, which the bloc has proposed to phase out by 2027. The bloc also intends to end Russian supply of nuclear fuels, but the plans and end date for this have not yet been released. The deal also imposes a 15% US import tariff on most EU goods, avoiding a threatened 30% rate ahead of a 1 August deadline. Von der Leyen described the agreement as a framework deal, meaning it would involve the publicly announced figures, but the “details have to be sorted out and that will happen over the next weeks”. The announcement did not clarify how the $750 billion would be split between the identified sectors. ANALYSIS Andreas Schroeder, head of gas analytics at ICIS, described the $250 billion annual target as unrealistic. “As the global LNG market has a value of just little over $200 billion at current prices, it is hard to imagine how US LNG exports to EU alone can help bringing value anywhere close to $250 billion [per year],” Schroeder said. Gas expert Anne-Sophie Corbeau said on LinkedIn that the agreement did not make sense and would require the EU to triple its purchases of US energy, accounting for current exchange rates. Total EU energy imports from the US were around $70 billion in 2024, according to Eurostat. “The EU needs to import a lot more in volumes, diverting away from [other suppliers], while assuming that oil and gas prices will remain high/increase,” she said while noting Europe is trying to lower energy costs and Trump wants cheaper oil. Corbeau also underlined the political agreement would not force markets’ hands. “And always remember, neither the [European Commission] nor the [White House] can dictate where super flexible US LNG goes,” she said. The US exported around 2.4 billion MMBtu of LNG to the EU over the last twelve months, according to ICIS LNG analyst Alex Froley. These US exports to the EU – at current prices of about $11/MMBtu – would equate to roughly $75 billion over three years, or around $25 billion/year. This means the EU could hit around 10% of its $750 billion target through purchases of LNG, at current rates of imports and prices. “US output will expand further over that period, which could allow some additional increase in purchases, but unlikely by a very large amount,” Froley added. Additionally, ICIS forecasts European TTF prices to decline going into 2026-2027 due to global oversupply. MARKET MOVES The deals announcement had limited impact on benchmark TTF gas prices. TTF August ’25 contracts shed value in early trade, slumping to €32/MWh around 12:00 London time before retracing their losses in the afternoon.