HOUSTON (ICIS)–Mining major BHP announced it will now cost between $7 billion to $7.4 billion for the first stage of the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan with production reset to begin in mid-2027. Stage one of the project is currently 68% completed with the company having already spent $4.5 billion on this phase. The development had been expected to cost the company $5.7 billion and was recently targeting a start during 2026. BHP said the estimated increases are due to cost escalation pressures, design development and scope changes, and their current assessment of lower productivity outcomes over the construction period. It is also considering extending first production from Jansen Stage 2 by two years until 2031. This is being done as part of a regular review of capital expenses and given potential for additional supply coming to market in the medium-term.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–National US standards for recycled plastics would make it easier for companies to collect waste plastic, which would lower costs and make the material more competitive in a market oversupplied with virgin resin, the American Chemistry Council (ACC) said. The group has unveiled a three-point plan that it said will make it easier for companies to collect waste plastic that can then be converted into recycled plastic. In addition, it recently testified in a hearing held by the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee of the House of Representatives, the lower legislative chamber of the US Congress. US NEEDS NATIONAL RECYCLING STANDARDSWhile there is plenty of currently available recycled plastic, several brands and converters continue to struggle with material quality, premium cost and manufacturing adoption, some of which could be improved with a focus on waste plastic collection and recycling infrastructure. National standards would ensure that US households have access to recycling, the ACC said. Standards would provide clear definitions of recycled and recycling content. They would also expand and modernize the infrastructure needed to collect waste plastic. Waste plastic is the feedstock that companies process to make recycled plastic. If collection costs fall and the quality of recycled plastic feedstock improves, recycled plastics would have an easier time competing with virgin material. Lawmakers have taken some steps towards passing recycling policies. Last year, two bills which would provide funding for recycling infrastructure and collect data on recycling and composting. The Recycling Infrastructure and Accessibility Act (RIAA) and the Recycling and Composting Accountability Act (RCAA) gathered broad based bipartisan support, but ultimately did not pass. Similarly, last year Congress introduced a bipartisan bill, Accelerating a Circular Economy for Plastics and Recycling Innovation Act. It would have required the nation’s environmental regulator to create national plastic recycling standards. It also set a 2030 goal for plastic packaging to contain at least 30% of recycled content. One of the bill’s sponsors is retiring, so a similar one would need to start from scratch, said Ross Eisenberg, president of America’s Plastic Makers at the ACC. He made his comments in an interview with ICIS. THREAT OF MULTIPLE STATE REGULATIONSIf the US lacks national policies, states will adopt their own rules and create a patchwork of regulations that will increase compliance costs for companies. So far, seven have passed plastic packaging laws related to extended producer responsibility (EPR), 10 have passed bottle deposit laws and five have passed standalone laws that set minimum requirements for plastic post-consumer recycled (PCR) content. NATIONAL STANDARDS FOR CHEMICAL RECYCLINGThe US should adopt national standards for chemical recycling, which is also known as advanced recycling, the ACC said. Chemical recycling is an umbrella term for several different technologies that break down plastics at a molecular level. These various processes such as pyrolysis, dissolution and methanolysis have vastly different production and environmental outcomes. According to the ACC, chemical recycling needs to be designated as a manufacturing process to make it easier for companies to develop plants. Right now, such designations are being done on a state-by-state basis. So far, 25 states have passed policies which recognize chemical recycling as a manufacturing process rather than a waste management one. Companies are building chemical recycling plants in states that consider the technology a manufacturing process, Eisenberg said. Though redefining the process is not the only hurdle. Once the plants are built, companies still need assurance that their output would count towards mandates for PCR content and EPR regulations. GLOBAL PLASTICS TREATY CAN SUPPORT US POLICIESThe global plastics treaty under negotiation could act as a starting point to introduce more policies in the US that would create market signals that would stimulate demand, Eisenberg said. If the global plastics treaty gets approved and it included provisions on recycled content and EPR, trade groups like the ACC could point to those provisions as an example that the US should follow. Policies about recycled content could create demand and generate market signals that would encourage companies to make investments to collect waste plastic and process it into recycled material, Eisenberg said. So far, the ACC has reached out to explain the importance of US involvement in the treaty discussions with the new administration of US President Donald Trump, Eisenberg said. “We’re really encouraged by what we are seeing out of them,” he said. The US has sent representatives to most of the lead-ups to the pre-meetings of the treaty negotiations, and Eisenberg expects that they will send some form of delegation to the next round of talks. The next UN meeting on the treaty (INC 5.2) is expected be held 5-14 August 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland. The US position aligns with the ACC’s, which wants the treaty to focus on ending plastic pollution and not on banning plastic, according to a report by Climate Home News. Insight article by Al Greenwood Additional reporting by Emily Friedman Thumbnail image: Plastic waste (Image by RICHARD VOGEL/AP/Shutterstock)

LONDON (ICIS)–On 8 July the European hydrogen market welcomed the much-anticipated delegated act for low-carbon hydrogen, which sets the rules for hydrogen produced via multiple different pathways, which still aim to achieve low levels of greenhouse gas emissions. In this episode, ICIS head of energy transition pricing, Alice Casagni, and ICIS hydrogen editor Jake Stones discuss the delegated act, the key points to come from the rules and what this means for European hydrogen moving forward.

BARCELONA (ICIS)–As the existing global trading system crumbles, and overcapacity keeps growing, Europe’s chemical industry must shift to a more national or regional business model. Trade war shows global trading system is breaking down Chemical industry should shift to a national or regional business model Would be a return to pre-1990s industry structure Europe has smaller chemical plants, ideal for regional markets EU must now act fast to protect chemical and industrial value chains China chemicals has been based on 6-8% GDP growth per year Now real GDP growth is only 1-4%, according to unofficial estimates In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Blue bales and flake in eastern Europe, colourless flake in NWE see mid-month drops Bearish sentiment could persist into August Veolia closing MultiPET site by year-end European Commission clarifies use of imports in Single Use Plastics Directive 25% target

Market experts told ICIS that BESS operators are more likely to opt for a hybrid bidding strategy at the first Italian MACSE auction This would involve a diversified BESS portfolio partly safeguarded by the low-risk MACSE premium, and partly benefiting from merchant market upside Italian power spot spreads are likely to increase, rendering the merchant market more remunerative, a source from KYOS told ICIS LONDON (ICIS)– Multiple market experts, including a source from KYOS Energy Consulting, have told ICIS that BESS operators are likely to opt for a hybrid bidding strategy at the first MACSE (Electricity Storage Capacity Procurement) auction on 30 September, covering some of their fixed costs with MACSE incentives and leaving the rest of their battery storage portfolio free to take part in the merchant market. The source from KYOS told ICIS that “a ‘full-MACSE strategy’ is probably not the way to go for operators, as it would involve missing too much of an opportunity from wholesale trading. Instead, a hybrid MACSE strategy is likely what most operators will want to go for.” The same source suggested that “as long as solar buildout outpaces BESS deployment, we are likely to see day-ahead spreads increasing, together with the arbitrage potential from buying low at midday and selling high in the evening.” “Consequently, I don’t think an operator would want to lock themselves into a ‘full-MACSE’ scheme which leaves them unable to take advantage of these increasing spreads,” the same source concluded. An Italian power market analyst agreed with this assessment, suggesting that “it is likely that operators will opt for a hybrid strategy as different studies indicate this as the most remunerative; it allows a portion of the earnings of a BESS portfolio to be safeguarded by the MACSE scheme while leaving the other part to benefit from arbitrage on the merchant market.” “FULL MACSE” The MACSE mechanism offers newly constructed storage facilities long-term contracts that ensure a premium in €/MWh/year, received on a monthly basis for 15 years. In exchange, operators must use their storage capacity to provide time-shifting services as well as participate in the Ancillary Services Market (MSD). Operators will be able to retain 20% of the revenue earned on the MSD. According to an Italian BESS expert, this makes a ‘full-MACSE’ strategy the most likely choice for “totally risk-averse operators; it provides regular and certain revenue, less profitability with less risk.” MERCHANT MARKET On the other hand, the same BESS expert told ICIS that “operators more prone to risk are likely to expose some of their BESS portfolio on the merchant market and/or the capacity market.” The same BESS expert noted that, as the first MACSE auction does not offer incentives for northern zones, “BESS portfolios could be diversified with MACSE projects in the south and capacity market projects in the north.” HYBRID STRATEGY On the other hand, a head of power origination told ICIS that “at the level of potential merchant market revenue, Italy is one of the least enticing countries in Europe, given that negative prices do not form on its power market.” The MACSE approach likely to be the most popular, an Italian market regulatory specialist told ICIS, could be “a hybrid strategy with a diversified BESS portfolio.” This would balance the higher upside offered by the merchant market with the low-risk, regular MACSE monthly premium. OUTLOOK The post-2028 horizon poses the threat of “battery cannibalization” – the new BESS capacity contracted by MACSE could reduce price spreads, thus cannibalizing battery arbitrage margins. However, the source from KYOS told ICIS that “in the near future there will be more liquidity on the intraday market, and the wholesale market will hold a more significant share of revenue stream for BESS operators.” “As more BESS capacity comes online, we expect profits on ancillary markets to decrease as these markets become more saturated (because of their relatively smaller depth), causing operators to shift their focus to merchant markets,” the source concluded.

LONDON (ICIS)–Chinese wax producers may look at reviewing their selling strategies as the US-China have yet to announce a long-term deal ahead of the 12 August deadline. The Chinese CIF (cost, insurance and freight) paraffin wax spot prices have increased for four consecutive weeks as volume availability dropped. With no clear view on the negotiations between US and China, the upwards movements on Chinese wax prices may prove temporary. The shipping time for Chinese wax to reach the US is about a month, and considering the current agreement expires mid-August, any shipments starting their journey to the US late July face risks related to any political changes. A 90-day reduction in tariffs between the US and China encouraged sellers to shift their strategy. Immediately after the escalation of trade tariffs back in April, wax producers directed supplies into Europe to avoid the US import duties and lowered their prices to entice buyers. Since the US and China announced the trade truce as they negotiate a new trade deal, Chinese sellers have opted to shift volumes once again and send them to the US. This has so far led to a steady recovery in Chinese spot volumes offered in Europe given less availability in China. A flurry of Chinese wax volumes started to reach Europe in June, and the additional competition added some pressure on domestic spot prices for paraffin wax in recent weeks. But this was below expectations, because of refinery maintenance works in June and July in Poland and Hungary. Chinese CIF-origin wax volumes posted gains for the fourth consecutive week, rising $30/tonne to $1,270-1,340/tonne, Sources expected a quiet demand period in August given the holiday season, with further price developments in September. Uncertainty may also drive some Chinese sellers to focus on Europe as a destination for their volumes. A stronger US dollar was also having an impact with buying appetite under pressure as the purchasing power of the euro was reducing. The currency has been highly volatile since the beginning of the year. Focus article by Sophie Udubasceanu

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes improved slightly in July following the passage of US President Donald Trump’s fiscal bill, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported on Thursday. Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” provided a number of important wins for households, home builders and small businesses, and therefore should spur housing momentum after a disappointing spring, said NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes. However, confidence remained low for a 15th consecutive month as elevated interest rates and economic and policy uncertainty continued to act as headwinds for the housing sector. Confidence, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), rose from 32 points in June to 33 in July. Readings below the 50-point neutral mark indicate builder pessimism, and above 50 they indicate optimism. The housing sector has weakened in 2025 due to poor affordability conditions, particularly from elevated interest rates, Hughes said. NAHB expects single-family housing starts to decline in 2025 due to the ongoing housing affordability challenges. JULY HMI SURVEY: The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose one point in July to a level of 36. The gauge for sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 43. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point decline to 20, the lowest reading since end of 2022. REGIONAL HMI SCORES: The Northeast increased two points to 45. The Midwest held steady at 41. The South dropped three points to 30. The West fell three points to 25. The housing market is a key consumer of chemicals, driving demand for a wide variety of chemicals, resins and derivative products, such as plastic pipe, insulation, paints and coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibers, among many other materials. Please also visit the ICIS topic page: Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals. Frontpage thumbnail by Shutterstock

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals production in German contracted 3% in the first half of 2025 offsetting an expansion in pharmaceuticals output to drive the industry as a whole to a 1% contraction, trade body VCI said on Thursday. Industry productivity remains 15% below the pre-crisis levels seen in 2018, with no sign of a turnaround this year, according to VCI president and Covestro chief Markus Steilemann. “We are also seeing double-digit declines in other important sectors of the economy,” he said. Covestro, along with other Germany-based peers BASF and FUCHS Group,  downgraded full-year earnings expectations for 2025 in the last week on prolonged weak demand and the depressed macroeconomic environment. Uncertainty remains a key headwind for the sector, with 40% of VCI member companies lamenting the disorganised global trade environment, as industry balances continue to weaken. Chemicals exports weakened year on year during the period, while imports increased 2%, VCI said. Total sector sales dropped 0.5% year on year during the period as prices stagnated, and capacity utilisation stood below 80% into a third consecutive year, below the profitability threshold for many products. The decline in productivity was more pronounced for the polymer and basic chemicals sectors, where production fell 3.5%, while petrochemicals and derivatives output fell 2.5%. Fine and specialty chemicals production fell 3% in the first half of the year, while detergents and personal care products output dropped 1% over the same period. “In the medium term, there is no improvement in sight. Germany is struggling with the third recession in a row,” VCI said. “Neither the economic institutes nor the majority of VCI member companies expect an economic upturn in the second half of 2025.” Moves by Germany’s new federal government to increase public investment and reduce bureaucratic roadblocks is a welcome one, according to Steilemann, who called for further cuts to red tape and an easing of the country’s debt brake, a focus on affordability in energy policy. Diversifying trade and stronger integration of the EU as a market. Thumbnail image: Shutterstock