LONDON (ICIS)–German chemical, pharmaceutical and other companies can expect to see a sharp decline in their exports to the important US market, as a result of tariffs, Jorg Kramer, chief economist at Germany’s Commerzbank, said in a webinar hosted by chemical producers’ trade group VCI. US protectionism to last for years Germany to see near-term pick-up in GDP Berlin unlikely to dismantle domestic obstacles to growth Commerzbank assumes that a US-EU trade deal, once reached, could lead to an average US import tariff of 15% on EU goods, which could imply that Germany’s exports to the US drop by one-third, Kramer said. The US tariffs marked a “historic shift” (Zeitenwende) away from globalization to de-globalization, over the coming years, if not decades, he said. “This will make for a difficult environment for Germany’s industry, and of course for its chemical industry,” he said. At the same time, US tariffs on China were leading to more exports from China to Europe and Germany, putting pressure on prices, he said. The causes for the US sentiment against free trade could be found in China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, Kramer said. Without China’s integration into the WTO, and the issues that caused, the high level of US protectionism would not have occurred, he said. Chinese companies had built up massive overcapacities, causing declining producer prices and a push into export markets, he said. About 23% of Chinese companies were making losses yet continued to operate, he noted. US TO AVOID RECESSION Meanwhile, although the tariff uncertainties would lead to lower economic growth in the US as well, the country would not fall into recession, Kramer said. US President Donald Trump had taken over a “very solid economy”, Kramer said. Trump was inaugurated on 20 January. Since the pandemic, the US economy grew by a cumulative 12%, Kramer said. That growth alone was equivalent to Germany’s total GDP, demonstrating the “underlying dynamic” and strength of the US economy, he said. GERMANY WILL NOT RISE TO TARIFF CHALLENGE As for Germany, the country would see a recovery next year, largely driven by lower interest rates and planned debt-financed government spending on infrastructure and defense, he said. There would be a near-term boost to GDP as the government was shifting defense and infrastructure spending out of its core budget, which would then create new room for spending in the core budget, he explained. The recovery, with GDP growth of about 1.4% in 2026, may be a “flash in the pan”, but that was still better than a permanent recession, he said. Germany’s GDP fell in both 2023 and 2024. For 2025, economists currently forecast 0.2-0.4% growth. However, Kramer is skeptical that Germany will rise to the US tariff challenge and take it as an opportunity for a much-needed reset or restart (Neustart) of its economy, with Berlin addressing bureaucracy, high taxes, high labor costs, high energy costs, complex and expensive permitting processes, and other impediments to growth, he said. Taxes: As it stands, it remains unclear if the new coalition government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz will really cut corporate taxes, Kramer said. Labor costs: Germany’s already high labor costs and social security levies would continue to rise, he said. Infrastructure: The government’s promised investments in infrastructure would continue to take years to realize as the country’s many environmental groups remain powerful, meaning that they can block or delay projects. Energy: Germany would remain a high-cost country, and many chemical companies have already reacted by shutting capacities, he said. Bureaucracy: While promising to reduce bureaucracy and red tape, over the last 20 years all German governments failed to keep those promises. Reducing bureaucracy could only succeed if government trusts companies, and Kramer doubts that the government does, he said. Meanwhile major German chemical firms – BASF, Covestro and Brenntag – have already written off 2025 and cut their earnings forecasts amid weak demand and the tariff uncertainties. VCI, for its part, expects a 2% decline in Germany’s chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) in 2025. Please also visit: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo: The seat of Germany’s parliament in Berlin. Source: Shutterstock.

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Slowing demand growth and a battle for market share between Saudi Arabia and the US could see crude oil prices drop significantly by the end of the year. High oil prices stimulate more production, low prices less Saudi Arabia and the US battle for market share Global demand for oil is around 100 million barrels/day Electric vehicles (EVs) have destroyed 2 million barrels/day of oil demand Around 20% of global vehicle sales are EVs Oil prices could fall to $40-$45/barrel by the end of the year Oil demand growth weakest in 16 years Low oil price is double-edged sword for chemical markets In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: From 1992 until 2021, predicting chemicals and polymers markets was simple. Booming China, youthful consumer demand, and stable globalization made assumptions as comfortable as an old pair of carpet slippers. Climate change risks felt distant, and plastic waste implications were largely overlooked. Not anymore. The slippers have fallen apart. We’re now navigating wildly difficult market conditions, like walking barefoot on a pebble beach – sharp pains could hit at any moment. Some analysts are waiting for a return to the “Old Normal.” But as the saying goes, “Those who can’t count the things that count, count the things that don’t count.” Markets are much more complex now; we must acknowledge this to move forward. The good news? AI offers a lifeline. It can help us measure complex patterns humans can’t, from the impact of climate migration on demand to how geopolitical shifts reshape trade. It can also optimize plastic waste recycling and effectively monitor carbon emissions for fair taxation/credits. This new era demands multi-layered scenario planning. For example, you should combine my Iran-Israel crisis scenarios, from my 1 July post, with three global economic scenarios (produced with the help of ChatGPT Plus) stemming from US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements. Here’s a snapshot of what could happen: Best-Case: Tariffs soften, markets stabilize, and global GDP takes only a mild hit. Medium-Case: Tariffs escalate, retaliation begins. Supply chains stress, stagflation fears return, and major economies flirt with recession. Worst-Case: All-in trade war, depression risk. Global GDP contracts sharply, trade collapses, and unemployment surges worldwide. Confused? You should be! The only sensible response is to embrace complex and nuanced scenario planning to protect your business. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

LONDON (ICIS)–On 21 July a spokesperson for the Dutch Ministry of Climate and Green Growth told ICIS that €1.78 million per megawatt (MW) of electrolysis capacity is the average grant amount for the 11 renewable hydrogen projects in the latest round of the government’s development of the hydrogen economy scheme (OWE). OWE awarded a total of over €700 million in subsidies for a combined 602MW of electrolyser capacity. OWE provides up to 80% of the capital costs for building a hydrogen production plant and covers the difference between the cost of generating renewable hydrogen and the cost of generating carbon-intensive hydrogen through steam methane reforming. The ministry also revealed the MW per project, with energy companies Air Liquide and Uniper securing the largest share of subsidised capacity, with 192MW and 178MW respectively. This makes up over 60% of the total. A spokesperson for Uniper has confirmed to ICIS that the subsidy has been awarded for the company’s 500MW Maasvlakte project, for which it targets operations by 2030. The company has not disclosed the amount awarded. ICIS has reached out to Air Liquide for the details of its awarded project in Rotterdam. In February the company announced it will build a 200MW plant there, which is expected to be operational by 2027. It has an estimated production of up 23,000 tons of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen annually and will supply energy major TotalEnergies through a long-term contract. In 2024 the company began construction of the Porthos carbon capture and storage project in the port of Rotterdam, which is expected to be completed in 2026 and aims to enable the production low-carbon hydrogen.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 18 July. INSIGHT: Tariffs on EU would pile on costs for US aromatics imports With Friday’s announcement of duties on EU goods, the US has proposed additional tariffs on just about every one of its major sources of imported aromatics, leaving domestic buyers few options to avoid the charges if they go into effect as planned on 1 August. Indonesia reaches trade deal with US – president The US reached a trade deal with Indonesia, the nation’s president said on Tuesday. Under the agreement, the US will charge a tariff of 19% on imports from Indonesia, President Donald Trump said on social media. For transshipments from countries subject to higher rates, the US will impose the higher rate on top of the Indonesia rate. INSIGHT: Indonesian tariffs leave US oleos few options to avoid higher costs The 19% tariffs that the US will impose on Indonesian imports will leave the nation’s oleochemical industry with few options to avoid the higher rates, given the archipelago’s role as the largest supplier of oleochemicals and feedstock. US investigation into Brazil policies points to more tariffs The US has started an investigation into Brazilian policies under Section 301, the same provision it used to impose tariffs on numerous Chinese imports in 2018. Indonesia tariff agreement could drive increase in US PE imports Indonesia’s tariff agreement with the US could result in more imports of polyethylene (PE) flowing from the world’s biggest economy into southeast Asia’s second biggest PE consumption market. US home builder confidence edges up on passage of Trump’s fiscal bill US builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes improved slightly in July following the passage of US President Donald Trump’s fiscal bill, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported on Thursday. INSIGHT: Muted EU reaction to US tariff proposals underplays its true implications A relatively sanguine EU market reaction to the latest US tariff proposals belies the fact that, come August, the bloc could face duties on exports to the country that would have been unthinkable seven months ago. INSIGHT: National standards to cut recycled-plastics costs amid virgin glut National US standards for recycled plastics would make it easier for companies to collect waste plastic, which would lower costs and make the material more competitive in a market oversupplied with virgin resin, the American Chemistry Council (ACC) said.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The latest US tariffs on Brazilian goods due to come into force on 1 August are related to “political” issues rather than trade and could still be revised or revoked, according to credit ratings agency Moody’s. John Rogers, senior vice president and head analyst for chemicals at Moody’s, said a revision to US tariffs is also likely due to their political nature and the fact that Brazil does not have a surplus in goods trade with the US – with the US running an even larger surplus than the average. When announcing the tariffs last week, US President Donald Trump justified them for what he described as a “witch hunt” against former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial for an alleged coup attempt in January 2023. “We don’t have a house view on the macroeconomic impact yet. I think the situation is very fluid, but in the past few months, we have had several announcements that were later revoked or revised. Hopefully, everything gets resolved before 1 August but, if not, I think the impact on both the US and Brazil is going to be significant,” said Rogers. “From the corporate side we can say that this, for sure. It adds challenges and uncertainties to business decisions, to investment decisions, to global trade and to prices. Ultimately, this would have an impact on demand which is already depressed. Not only for Brazil in general, but for the chemical sector globally.” Rogers said although most US tariffs are being directed at countries that have a trade surplus with the US, it is not the case for Brazil. Not only does the US have a large trade surplus with Brazil, it also enjoys a trade surplus in chemicals, according to chemicals trade group Abiquim. Last year, Brazil posted a significant trade deficit with the US – importing $10.4 billion worth of chemicals, but exporting just $2.4 billion. “Most of the tariffs we are seeing are directed to countries that have trade surpluses with the US – Brazil does not have one,” Rogers pointed out. Many in Brazil’s industrial sector expect the crisis to be sorted out well before the 1 August deadline – and do not expect the tariffs to be implemented – at least not by the damaging percentages announced earlier. “We simply need this to be reversed and we think it will be reversed very soon. Otherwise, this will be a big impact on us here in Brazil: 20% of our exports are destined for the US,” said a source in the powerful food sector, a large consumer of polymers. “We’re not even counting on this becoming a reality in August. We’re counting on this to be resolved sooner.” However, the more pessimistic expect GDP growth to be hit by about half a percentage point over the next three years. “Our Tariff Impact Model indicates that a 50% US import tariff could exert a hit of about 0.6% on Brazil’s GDP over a three-year period. We suspect that the impact would be mitigated by a fall in the real – it declined by about 2.5% against the dollar yesterday and we expect a further depreciation this year – and some redirection of exports to other markets,” said analysts at Capital Economics. “That might leave the impact in the order of 0.3-0.5% of GDP. So, it is not an enormous hit, but also not helpful at a time when the economy appears to be slowing sharply.” Front page picture shows the Brazilian flag Picture by Fernando Bizerra Jr/EPA/REX/Shutterstock

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at the ARG pipeline network and the threat to Europe’s chemical industry. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) on 18 July reported a 10.8% year-on-year increase in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) amid favorable margins on domestic fuel retail and downstream chemical deltas. in crore Indian rupee (Rp10,000,000) Apr-Jun 2025 (Q1 FY2026) Apr-Jun 2024 % Change Revenue 154,804 157,133 -1.5 Exports 59,245 71,463 -17.1 EBITDA 14,511 13,093 10.8 Revenue fell 1.5% year on year in the fiscal first quarter ended 30 June amid falling crude oil prices and lower volumes, the latter due to planned shutdowns, the Indian chemicals major said in a statement. RILS’ O2C EBITDA margin grew 9.4% in April-June this year from 8.3% in the same period a year earlier. Earnings for the period were offset by “lower volumes due to planned turnaround, and decline in polyester chain margins”. Domestic polymer demand rose by 2% year on year in Q1 FY26, with polypropylene (PP) demand up by 7%, led by packaging, furniture, and automotives, polyethylene (PE) demand decreasing by 1% amid lower demand from the infrastructure sector, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand remaining stable year on year despite the early arrival of the monsoon season. Domestic polyester demand grew by 3% over the same period, with polyethylene terephthalate (PET) demand down 10%, due to lower demand from beverages sector amid the early monsoon onset. Polyester filament yarn (PFY) demand increased by 9%, and polyester stable fiber (PSF) demand by 3%, both amid improved downstream operations. POLYMER MARGINS SHOW MIXED TRENDSPolymer margins showed varied trends in Q1 FY26, with PP margins jumping by 13% and PVC margins up by 4%, while PE margins were lower, falling by 1% year on year. The price of ethylene dichloride (EDC) was at $184/tonne, down 42% year on year with increased availability due to strong caustic prices, while Singapore naphtha price was lower by 14% at $561/tonne. PP margin over naphtha improved to $360/tonne from $318/tonne in the same period a year ago on lower feedstock prices, whereas PE margin over naphtha declined to $325/tonne from $330/tonne in the same period last year as higher supplies pressured product prices. PVC margin over EDC and naphtha rose to $385/tonne from $371, primarily led by a sharp decline in EDC prices. Meanwhile, the polyester chain margin decreased to $446/tonne from $489 in Q4 FY24, driven by a significant 34% drop in PX margin over naphtha due to a sharp increase in PX supplies.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 18 July. Ammonia trend to remain bullish in August on tight supply Tight availability will continue to be the main factor characterizing the ammonia market in August. German chemical production lags pharma as output shrinks in first half Chemicals production in German contracted 3% in the first half of 2025 offsetting an expansion in pharmaceuticals output to drive the industry as a whole to a 1% contraction, trade body VCI said on Thursday. PVC closures in Europe highlight shrinking market, weak competitiveness When almost half a million tonnes of capacity closes in a year, there is clearly a systemic issue. BASF, Covestro warnings underscore global weakness as EU tariffs loom BASF and Covestro’s moves to manage expectations for full-year earnings growth underline the precarity of global economic growth, with potential for heavy US tariffs on the EU only serving to further weigh on sentiment. Europe methanol market flooded with imports, congestion at Rotterdam in July European methanol storage and logistics face difficulties in early Q3, with pressure on Rotterdam terminals expected to continue this summer.