HOUSTON (ICIS)–Researchers at Colorado State University’s (CSU) Weather and Climate Research department maintained their prediction of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season as the tropical Atlantic has warmed faster than normal over the past few weeks. The CSU team’s original prediction of 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on 1 June and runs through 30 November, has been adjusted to 16 named storms. Of those 16 storms, researchers forecast eight to become hurricanes and three to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher. The original forecast called for nine storms to reach hurricane strength and four of those to be Category 3 storms or higher. The adjusted forecast includes the three storms that have already formed: Andrea, Barry and Chantal. Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, numbered from 1 to 5, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds, with a Category 5 storm being the strongest. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category Wind speed 1 74-95 miles/hour 2 96-110 miles/hour 3 111-129 miles/hour 4 130-156 miles/hour 5 157+ miles/hour “So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2021,” Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report, said. “Our analog seasons generally had somewhat above-average Atlantic hurricane activity.” The team bases its forecasts on two statistical models, as well as four models that simulate recent history and predictions of the state of the atmosphere during the coming hurricane season. CSU researchers listed the following probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025: 48% for the entire US coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%). 25% for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%). 31% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%). 53% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%). Hurricanes directly affect the chemical industry because plants and refineries shut down in preparation for the storms, and they sometimes remain down because of damage. Power outages can last for days or weeks. Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and highways, which can prevent operating plants from receiving feedstock or shipping out products. Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes. Other plants and refineries are scattered farther east in the states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida – a peninsula that is also a hub for phosphate production and fertilizer logistics.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US plans to impose an additional tariff of 25% on shipments from Indian in response to that country’s imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products, the government said on Wednesday. The US is considering similar tariffs on imports from other countries that import Russian crude oil or petroleum products. The additional tariffs on Indian imports will take effect on 27 August, and they would raise the duty on Indian imports to 50% once the earlier tariffs are included, the government said. The US is using the tariffs as part of a strategy to compel Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine over those countries’ war between each other. The US alleges that Indian imports of Russian oil are undermining its diplomacy and sustaining Russia’s war effort. The proposed tariffs would not apply to the sectoral tariffs that the US has imposed on product families such as steel and aluminium under section 232. The US could modify the duties if India imposes retaliatory tariffs, if India addresses US concerns over petroleum imports or if Russia addresses US concerns over the war. The US made no mention of Russian shipments of fertilizer. Such shipments are significant, and their exclusion indicates that the US may not target them as part of its efforts to end the war. In a statement, India alleged that the proposed tariffs are unfair, unjustified and unreasonable. “We have already made clear our position on these issues, including the fact that our imports are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India,” the country’s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement. “India will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests.” The following summarizes other details of the proposed tariffs on Indian imports. It excludes many coal-based chemicals and some polymers listed in Annex II, which was published in April. It covers Russian crude oil or “petroleum products extracted, refined or exported from the Russian Federation, regardless of the nationality of the entity involved in the production or sale of such crude oil or petroleum products”. It covers indirect imports, which “includes purchasing Russian Federation oil through intermediaries or third countries where the origin of the oil can reasonably be traced to Russia”. The tariffs will take place “21 days after the date of this order, except for goods that (1) were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit prior to entry into the US before 12:01 am eastern daylight time 21 days after the date of this order; and (2) are entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, before 12:01 am eastern daylight time on 17 September 2025”. Thumbnail image: Containers, which feature prominently in international shipping (Image source: Shutterstock)

TORONTO (ICIS)–While the US has further raised its tariffs on goods from Canada, the compliance rate of Canadian chemical and plastics products with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement is high, meaning that those exports will be able to continue to enter the US tariff-free. USMCA compliance key advantage for Canada Canadian chemical and plastics exports fall Chemical railcar shipments steady US President Donald Trump last week raised the tariff rate on non-USMCA-compliant goods imported from Canada to 35%, from 25%, after the two countries failed to reach a deal by the 1 August deadline. In order to be USMCA-compliant, goods must meet the USMCA’s requirements for rules of origin. The 35% tariff is separate from the US sectoral tariffs on autos, aluminum, and steel. David Cherniak, policy manager, business and transportation at the Ottawa-based Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC), told ICIS that CIAC does not know the exact USMCA compliance rate for the entire chemical and plastics sector. “However, we estimate that it is very high, owing to the near-universal use of North American feedstocks in high-volume chemistry and plastic product production,” he said. USMCA CIAC is a strong supporter of USMCA and was actively engaged in the Canadian federal government’s consultation process in autumn 2024 in preparation for the agreement’s formal review beginning in 2026, Cherniak said. “We consistently advocate for the free and fair trade of chemistry and plastic products, in alignment with our industry partners in Washington and Mexico City,” he said. “It’s also important to emphasize that USMCA remains legally in force until 2036, providing a stable framework for North American trade in our sectors,” he said. Ideally, CIAC wants a return to the tariff-free relationship that existed before the Trump tariffs, Cherniak said. “It is important for the Canadian chemistry and plastics industry, indeed all of Canadian manufacturing, to have clarity and certainty when it comes to trade with this important partner,” he said. The US is by far the largest market for Canada’s chemical sector, absorbing 77% of its exports in chemicals and chemical products, according to CIAC data. EXPORTS FALL Overall Canadian exports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products have fallen sharply year on year in recent months. However, Cherniak said the chemistry and plastics trade is influenced by broad macroeconomic trends, not just US tariffs. Globally, the chemistry and resin sectors remain in a cyclical downturn, with interest rates still high despite easing from recent peaks, he said. “These pressures intensified in April and May amid peak uncertainty in the US trade war,” he said. Also, declines in exports partly reflected falling product prices and a rebalancing of trade flows after companies “front loaded” buying to pull ahead of announced tariffs, Cherniak said. Data from Canada’s federal transport ministry, Transport Canada, showed that rail shipments in the chemicals sector were on par with 2024, he said, adding: “Public chemical companies also anticipate increased North American operating rates as the year progresses.” As for the 2025 outlook, CIAC’s earlier expectation of 1-4% growth in industrial chemicals shipments (sales), and 2-4% export growth, now seems too optimistic. Volumes were flat or down by 1-2% for the first seven months of 2025 as expectations for a stronger macroeconomic environment did not materialize, and trade uncertainty has added pressure, Cherniak said. Nevertheless, North America remains relatively strong economically and Canada’s chemical industry benefits from a feedstock cost advantage, with the benchmark Alberta natural gas price recently turning negative, he said. “As trade uncertainty eases and flows normalize, we remain confident in the outlook for the chemistry and plastics sectors,” he said. “I point back to the Transport Canada data. Through May we see that the volume of chemicals and resins shipped on railways is flat to 2024 even though prices have fluctuated dramatically,” he said. Meanwhile, the prolonged business cycle downturn, combined with ongoing tariff uncertainty, has delayed several major investments in the chemical industry, Cherniak said, but added: “We anticipate a renewed commitment to these projects as market conditions improve in the coming months.” ANALYSTS Analysts at Toronto-based Royal Bank of Canada said in a research note on Tuesday that the average effective US tariff rate on imports from Canada was just 2.4% in June, one of the lowest among US trading partners. The average US tariff rate for goods imports from all countries was 8.9% in June, according to the analysts’ estimates. While the effective tariff rate on imports from Canada would rise with the increase in the rate on products not compliant with the USMCA to 35%, that increase applied to a “relatively small share, we estimate around 6%” of Canadian exports to the US that are not USMCA compliant, they said. If the exemption for USMCA-compliant goods imported from Canada remains in place, Canada would have the lowest tariff rate of any major US trading partner, putting Canadian exporters in a stronger relative position to compete for US import market share than other countries, the analysts said. However, there are concerns that the overall US tariff hike on all countries has been so large, and that the uncertainties surrounding the tariff announcements have been so high, that US economic growth will slow, with negative implications for close US trading partners such as Canada, the analysts said. They went on to point to evidence of softening US labor markets, particularly in the US industrial sector, where ties with the Canadian economy are extremely close. CANADA WORKS TOWARDS NEW DEAL As it currently stands, Canada is one of the few major trading partners without a bilateral deal with the US, and it is also one of the few countries, along with China, to have retaliated against the tariffs. At the same time, however, as long as the USMCA exemption remains in place, much of Canada’s trade with the US is shielded from the Trump tariffs. Despite missing the 1 August deadline, the Canadian government continues to work towards an agreement with the US, with the objective of removing or cutting tariffs. However, Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned Canadians to expect that even with a deal, some of the US tariffs may remain in place. It remains unclear whether Canada will further raise its retaliatory tariffs, in response to the US tariff hike to 35% from 25%. Canada’s powerful provincial premiers (governors) are in disagreement over the retaliatory tariffs. Scott Moe, premier of resource-rich Saskatchewan has called for them to be removed, whereas the premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, wants them to be raised. Some commentators have said Canada should not rush into a bilateral deal but rather wait until US courts have made a final decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. Only US courts could protect against Trump’s unpredictable and politically motivated tariff policies, they said. Others, however, are urging the Canadian government to make a quick bilateral deal with the US, saying the country cannot rely on the USMCA and Trump may revoke the exemption for USMCA-compliant products at any time. Please also visit: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo source: Government of Canada

France’s Damen Shiprepair halts Russian LNG fleet servicing Adds more logistical shipping challenges for Russia Denmark’s Odense yard to continue servicing Russian vessels LONDON (ICIS)–The French shipyard Damen Shiprepair in Brest has halted servicing Russia’s arctic LNG tankers, adding to the growing restrictions on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. A spokesperson for Dutch parent company Damen told ICIS that it decided at the start of 2025 to stop repairing Russian LNG tankers. “Although the previous repairs were permitted under European sanctions legislation, we decided to refrain from further work on this type of ship,” the Damen spokesperson said. “This was the company’s own decision,” he added, “in line with Dutch foreign policy discouraging Dutch companies from supporting Russian LNG exports.” Following Damen’s decision, the Fayard-operated Odense yard in Denmark stands as the only Western facility continuing to service Russia’s arctic LNG fleet. For example, the 172,000cbm Boris Vilkitsky and Fedor Litke tankers – both chartered by Yamal – are currently near the Odense yard, ICIS data shows. About 15 Arc-7 ice-class Yamalmax vessels serve the 17.4mtpa Yamal LNG plant and have been serviced by Damen Shiprepair and Denmark’s Odense yard in recent years. The ice-class vessels were originally designed to transport LNG from Yamal to transshipment points in northwest Europe. GROWING CHALLENGES While the vessels are not directly sanctioned, ICIS senior LNG analyst Alex Froley said they may have to use shipyard services in Asia instead if European yards continue to limit availability. “While not a complete blocker to Yamal, it adds to a growing number of restrictions that add more friction and logistical challenges, following on from the ban on ship-to-ship transfers in European ports in March this year,” he said. The ban on the transshipment of Russian LNG through EU ports became effective from 26 March, for contracts concluded before 25 June 2024. “Russia now has to transfer cargoes in its own waters in Murmansk as a result of that change,” Froley said. This comes on top of a proposed roadmap, published earlier in May, to ban all European imports of Russian gas from 2028, which would likely redirect Russian volumes to Asia. Meanwhile, the sanctioned 13.2mtpa Arctic LNG 2 export plant has a total of 21 Yamalmax ships ordered between November 2019 and November 2020. The US Treasury has previously imposed sanctions on the 1.5mtpa Portovaya LNG and 0.66mtpa Vysotsk LNG plants, while the Yamal LNG and 10.9mtpa Sakhalin‑2 export plants have so far not been sanctioned. DANISH YARD TO CONTINUE REPAIRS Denmark’s Fayard, the operator of Odense shipyard, declined to comment on other companies’ decisions, but added it “fully supports Denmark and the EU’s stance towards Russia”. The spokesperson told ICIS that the EU aims to phase out Russian LNG and gas, but has assessed that gas from the Yamal LNG facility “remains a necessary part of Europe’s energy supply”. The export plant was not sanctioned in EU’s 18th and latest sanctions package from the EU, which was adopted by the end of July 2025, he said. “We support the EU’s plans and adhere to the current political guidelines and regulations, as we are interested in assisting the EU, and consequently we work in accordance with what the EU’s politicians decide,” the spokesperson added. It remains unclear whether the Danish yard can take over all the work previously handled by Damen for Russia’s LNG fleet. The EU sanctioned two key flag registries and a proposed Russian LNG export plant in its latest round of sanctions.

MADRID (ICIS)–Adapting to the green economy will be the key, long-term challenge for the EU and Spain’s chemicals sector, while the current focus on energy costs is misplaced, according to Spain’s main trade union. Daniel Martinez, head of chemicals at The Workers’ Commissions (CCOO), said the healthy performance in Spain’s chemical sector post pandemic had much to do with the so-called Iberian exception, a measure within the EU in the middle of the energy crisis in 2022 that allowed Spain and Portugal to considerably lower their electricity bills. In an interview with ICIS in July, Juan Labat, head of Spanish chemicals trade group Feique, said that while the Iberian exception had managed to considerably reduce electricity costs, the chemicals industry continued to be burdened by high taxes and costs for energy and emissions rights. According to Martinez, power costs for companies fell by an average of 70% under the Iberian exception until 2024. “The 70% energy subsidy has been very powerful, since the Iberian exception agreement was achieved at a moment when our EU competitors were paying much higher prices for their electricity bills amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said Martinez, adding that, similarly to the pharmaceuticals sector, the right support at the right time for petrochemicals allowed the industry to continue performing well. GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENTBut to maintain a healthy chemicals industry in Europe, environmental compliance and waste management will increasingly become critical challenges for chemicals companies, he said. Those concerns, in the medium to long term, will become more important than traditional energy cost concerns. “It’s going to be crucial. We are particularly concerned about waste treatment capacity, regulatory compliance and the infrastructure needed to support continued industrial operations. For instance, the region of Madrid has a serious waste management problem that is not being addressed,” said Martinez. “Companies have problems with water treatment, waste, solvents, bleaches, soil contamination and air pollution. Either there’s a uniform approach from the central and regional governments, with the right investments, or companies will leave Spain because of this lack of the necessary infrastructure.” Martinez cited the example of Grupo Industrial Cristian Lay (CL), which in June announced the closure of its steel plant in Madrid’s Getafe region, after 60 years of operations. The move was driven by the facility’s proximity to areas where investment in residential developments, he said, deliver big returns. “The company wanted to invest €300 million in zero-emissions, carbon-neutral facilities but faced local political resistance. This is the wrong way forward – we must manage to keep those companies within Spain or they increasingly leave for other jurisdictions,” he said. “This is all connected to environmental policy, urban planning, and industrial competitiveness, and we must manage to balance all those factors to keep a healthy chemicals sector. POSITIVES – WITH CAVEATSMartinez said renewable energy is unlikely to fully replace fossil fuels for all industrial applications any time soon, but added that Spain has also made significant progress on that front thanks to renewables, citing significant developments in regions that have traditionally lacked industrial facilities. The Extremadura region, in the western part of Spain bordering on Portugal is a case in point, as it has lithium reserves that have prompted the construction of a gigafactory for batteries set to employ 3,000 workers. In Spain’s collective imagination, Extremadura has always been the poorest region, sparsely populated and with less than 1 million inhabitants. “Just in July, five energy storage projects have also been announced for Extremadura, which will add to the battery factory. This is the sort of investments possible in Spain thanks to the abundance of wind and sun [to produce the electricity for energy-intensive plants],” said Martinez. The region already covers more than 42% of its energy consumption via renewables, he said, and continues to attract international attention, including from Japanese investors interested in electric vehicle (EV) and cathode factories. “But it’s not all positive. Renewable energy projects face big delays: two to four years can pass from the moment a company designs the project until they grant the licenses. This must be sped up,” said Martinez. Spain remains one of the largest automobile producers within the EU, a petrochemicals-intensive sector that is quickly losing competitiveness to Chinese manufacturers focused on EVs. He said the EU will have to make great advances if it wants to keep its important automotive sector, noting China’s competitive advantages in EV pricing, with standard vehicles available for €20,000 and small cars for €13,000, creating significant competitive pressure for European manufacturers. Spain’s infrastructure challenges are also limiting EV adoption, said Martinez, arguing that there are only 45,000 electric chargers of which only one-third are operative. Adding to the challenges, he said electrifying petrol stations requires substantial electrical infrastructure investment, including nearby substations, which is not being built at the necessary speed. “I am also worried about the employment implications. Electric cars have 80% fewer components than combustion engine cars, so we must be prepared to potentially see significant job losses in traditional automotive manufacturing,” said Martinez. “While some analysts predict 800,000 new jobs from transport electrification, I remain very skeptical about full employment replacement. I don’t think EV production could ever be able to absorb that loss of employment. Moreover, modern manufacturing facilities rely heavily on engineering talent,, rather than traditional assembly workers. Front page picture: The Tarragona port and chemicals park in northeast Spain Picture source: Port of Tarragona Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US July sales of new light vehicles rose year on year and month on month, beating industry expectations, but the chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) is maintaining its full-year forecast of 15.3 million units. Year to date, US sales of new light autos are up by 4.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis, as shown in the following chart from NADA. NADA said the year-on-year change could have been larger, but July 2024 sales data included sales that would have occurred in June 2024 were it not for the massive software outage that affected many dealerships across the country. Affordability continues to create headwinds for the industry. NADA cited data from JD Power & Associates estimating that tariffs are adding $4,275 in costs for vehicles, on average, keeping prices high and continuing to weigh on affordability. “Many OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] reported significant impacts to their bottom line due to tari­ffs,” Patrick Manzi, NADA chief economist, said. “It remains to be seen how long OEMs can absorb the price hikes before passing the costs along to consumers. We expect to have more clarity on changing OEM pricing strategies in the fall as 2025 models transition to 2026 models.” During a conference call to discuss Q2 earnings, Ford CEO Jim Farley said the company expects tariffs to be a $2 billion headwind in 2025. General Motors posted a 31.6% drop in Q2 adjusted earnings, citing $1.1 billion in tariff costs net impact. Industry analysts were anticipating increased activity in the electric vehicle (EV) market as just a few months remain before government tax incentives are set to expire, but while sales of battery EVs (BEVs) rose by 22.7% from the previous month, they were flat compared with the same month a year ago. The same is true for market share year-to-date for BEVs, which totaled 7.4% – also flat year on year, NADA said. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids – some of which are also eligible for the EV tax credit – saw sales and market share decline slightly year on year. The most popular alternative-fuel segment continues to be hybrids, according to NADA, which posted a 37.7% year-on-year sales gain in July 2025. Year-to-date, hybrids have also picked up 3 percentage points of market share, as shown in the following chart from NADA. DEMAND OUTLOOK Jincy Varghese, ICIS demand analyst, said the auto industry remains exposed to trade tensions and is currently navigating a turbulent transition. “EV sales are growing, but consumer interest remains mixed because of concerns over charging infrastructure, among others,” Varghese said. “The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) forecast EV sales will exceed 20 million vehicles worldwide, or in other words, one in every four vehicles sold will be EV. Meanwhile, traditional ICE vehicle production remained below pandemic levels in North America and Europe.” Oxford Economics said in its North American 2025 outlook that higher costs and slower economic growth from the reciprocal tariff policy are expected to contribute to a 4% decline in sales for 2025. “Optimal production schedules will vary by manufacturer, but tariffs will likely have a significant distortionary effect on North American production in 2025 and beyond,” Oxford said. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. Meanwhile, EVs and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Focus article by Adam Yanelli Please also visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco’s net income in the second quarter fell by 22% year on year to Saudi riyal (SR) 85 billion ($22.7 billion), weighed down by a combination of lower sales and higher operating costs. in SR billions Q2 2025 Q2 2024 % Change H1 2025 H1 2024 % Change Sales 407.14 470.61 -13.5 784.48 827.75 -5.23 Operating profit 167.09 206.45 -19.1 358.45 408.50 -12.3 Net Profit 85.02 109.01 -22.0 182.57 211.28 -13.6 Its total revenue in the first six months of 2025 fell by 5% year on year on lower crude oil and chemical prices, partially offset by higher volumes sold, the Saudi oil and refining major said in a filing on the Saudi bourse on Tuesday. Aramco’s adjusted net income for the first half of 2025 was SR190.8 billion, with total adjusting items of SR8.2 billion, primarily consisting of impairments and write-downs, losses on sales, retirements and disposals, and adjustments related to joint ventures and associates, the company said. Aramco’s average realized crude oil prices in Q2 2025 stood at $66.7/bbl, down from $85.7/bbl in the same period last year. “Despite geopolitical headwinds, we continued to supply energy with exceptional reliability to our customers, both domestically and around the world, said Aramco president & CEO Amin Nasser in a statement. “Market fundamentals remain strong, and we anticipate oil demand in the second half of 2025 to be more than two million barrels per day higher than the first half,” Nasser added. “Our long-term strategy is consistent with our belief that hydrocarbons will continue to play a vital role in global energy and chemicals markets, and we are ready to play our part in meeting customer demand over the short and the long term.” Saudi Aramco’s Q2 capital expenditures of $2.81 billion supported “the steady and on-track progress of capital projects” such as the construction of the Shaheen S-Oil refinery-integrated petrochemical steam cracker, and other projects. ($1 = SR3.75)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Let’s be honest: nobody knows the outcome of a potential “Trump 2.0” trade war. The impact could be anything from benign to a global economic crisis on par with the Great Depression. But what we do know—what falls into Donald Rumsfeld’s category of “known knowns”—is that the global petrochemicals industry is facing its deepest downturn on record. This is a prolonged collapse in margins caused by a massive oversupply of capacity, largely because the consensus got China’s demand growth wrong. So, what’s next? The easy conditions of the 1992-2021 Supercycle are over, and we are entering a new, volatile era. We’ve summarised what we believe are the five key trends shaping the future of global petrochemicals: Consolidation is Inevitable:A major wave of consolidation is coming. Smaller commodity players without state support or competitive feedstocks will struggle, forcing them to move downstream into specialty chemicals and composites. AI as a Critical Tool: The rise of AI is perfectly timed. It’s not just for efficiency; AI will be a vital tool for innovators to discover new composite materials and build more efficient, sustainable supply chains. End of the Supercycle: The old seasonal models no longer hold. Long-term demand is being driven by complex forces: geopolitical shifts, demographic divergence, and climate change. The “unknown unknowns” of a second trade war only add to this uncertainty. Climate Change Reshapes Demand: We must prepare for climate change to fundamentally alter consumption patterns. AI can help us model everything from mass migration and new housing needs to the demand for sustainable urban infrastructure. Policy Will Define AI’s Impact: The ultimate effect of AI on petrochemicals consumption will hinge on government policy. Will AI-driven abundance alleviate poverty, or will job losses cause new economic problems? The answers will shape future demand. This is a confusing and complex time, but by accepting these realities, we can work together towards solutions. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US crops continued to mature towards harvest with corn acreage having reached 88% silking and soybean blooming at 85%, according to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The rate of corn silking is ahead of the 86% achieved in 2024 but trails the five-year average of 89%. Corn at the dough stage is up to 42%, which is behind the 44% rate from the 2024 season but is above the five-year average of 40%. In the first update on corn dented, the USDA said there is 6% of the crop at this stage, which is equal to the level from 2024 and the five-year average of 6%. Corn conditions are unchanged with 2% very poor, 5% poor, 20% fair, 53% good and 20% excellent. Soybean blooming has climbed to 85%, which is on par with the 85% level from the 2024 season but is behind the five-year average of 86%. There is 58% of the soybean crop setting pods, which is ahead of the 2024 mark of 57% and matches the five-year average of 58%. For soybean conditions, the amount of very poor increased to 2%, with the crop listed as poor still at 5% and fair remaining at 24%. The level of good decreased to 54% with the crops deemed excellent unchanged at 15%. Winter wheat harvest has reached 86% completed.