LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) has reaffirmed its commitment to accelerating the hydrogen economy, after a spate of recent industry setbacks including steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal’s cancellation of its renewable hydrogen-based decarbonisation plans for two steel plants. A spokesperson for the ministry told ICIS on 3 July that BMWE regrets ArcelorMittal’s cancellation but stressed that it was a private sector decision and that none of the €1.3 billion government subsidy secured for the project has been disbursed. They reiterated the ministry’s support for other major steel decarbonisation projects by Salzgitter, Thyssenkrupp, and SHS, which have collectively secured €5.6 billion in funding. “Reducing electricity prices in the short term is key for companies”, the spokesperson added, welcoming the European Commission’s recent adoption of the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework, which provides the possibility to “reduce electricity prices for energy-intensive industries”. Since ArcelorMittal’s announcement, EWE, LEAG and E.ON have all confirmed to ICIS the postponement or cancellation of German projects totalling 80MW capacity of hydrogen production. However, the BMWE remains committed to the “swift implementation” of national and European regulations to enable the growth of the hydrogen industry. The spokesperson stated that “the development of a hydrogen economy is to be accelerated and organised more pragmatically”, using “all colours” of hydrogen, while transitioning to renewable hydrogen in the long-term. Hydrogen infrastructure expansion, including connections to all German and European ports, remains important. To improve the competitive conditions of the economy, the ministry wants to “abolish unnecessary bureaucracy (e.g. Supply Chain Act)” and “simplify planning and approval procedures”. The Supply Chain Act, which entered into force in 2023, requires companies to exercise due diligence to prevent or address human rights and environmental violations within their supply chains, but has been criticized for the administrative and cost burden on companies. The BMWE has recently made moves to simplify hydrogen bureaucracy. On 7 July, it published a draft bill for the hydrogen acceleration act, which aims to “significantly accelerate the market ramp-up of hydrogen (…) by establishing fast, simplified, and coordinated approval procedures with clear specifications and deadlines”. As part of the bill, hydrogen projects will be deemed to be of “overriding public interest”, which will give them priority in regulatory and legal balancing decisions. The spokesperson told ICIS that the status of the hydrogen ramp-up will be reviewed as a basis for further work addressing the country’s energy supply security.

LONDON (ICIS)–Covestro has downgraded its outlook for 2025 due to an ongoing weak global economy with no signs of a short-term recovery, it said on Friday. The Germany-headquartered polymers producer cut its forecast for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), as well as two other key financial metrics. Covestro outlined its revisions in a statement released ahead of its second-quarter earnings, due to be published on 31 July. The company’s adjusted forecast is as follows: EBITDA is expected to be between €700 million and €1.1 billion. The previous forecast projected EBITDA between €1.0 billion and €1.4 billion. Free operating cash flow (FOCF) is expected to be between €-400 million and €+100 million. The previous forecast projected FOCF between €0 million and €300 million. Return on capital employed over weighted average cost of capital (ROCE over WACC) is expected to be between -9 and -5 percentage points. The previous forecast projected ROCE over WACC between -6 and -3 percentage points. Preliminary EBITDA for the second quarter amounted to €270 million, within the forecast range €200 million-€300 million, Covestro said. The producer’s first quarter EBITDA halved year on year though was at the upper end of its forecast.

LONDON (ICIS)–UK economic growth fell for the second consecutive month in May, driven down by weak production and construction output. GDP declined by 0.1% in May following a decrease of 0.3% in April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. A fall in May production output by 0.9% month on month was mainly driven by a decline in manufacturing, which fell by 1.0%. Construction declined by 0.6% in May, the ONS said, while the services sector grew by 0.1%. First-quarter growth strengthened in the UK from the previous quarter, although this was recorded before the announcement of US trade tariffs, which are likely to be reflected in future economic data.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Royal Vopak has signed an agreement with Japanese heavy-industry firm IHI Corp to establish a joint venture for the development and operation of an ammonia terminal in Japan, the Dutch provider of storage and infrastructure solutions firm said on Friday. The terminal is expected to start operations in the Japanese fiscal year 2030, it said in a statement. “The ammonia terminal development aims to facilitate the receiving and storing of imported ammonia within Japan and to facilitate the establishment of a system for stable supply of such ammonia in Japan,” Vopak said. Ammonia is expected to contribute to Japan’s decarbonization goals through its increased use as fuel and raw material in power generation and various industrial uses, it said. The collaboration focuses on developing a broader ammonia supply chain in Japan, with the goal of promoting the various uses of ammonia. IHI and Vopak also aim to establish an efficient ammonia distribution system by utilizing an ammonia terminal with a hub function for marine transportation. Vopak, which currently operates six ammonia storage facilities globally, had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Japan’s IHI in November 2023 to jointly investigate developing and operating efficient, high value-added ammonia terminals in Japan.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A federal appeals court has vacated the reciprocal switching rule enacted by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) last year, saying the agency exceeded its authority. Reciprocal switching is when a railroad that has physical access to a specific shipper facility switches rail traffic to the facility for another railroad that does not have physical access. The second railroad pays compensation to the railroad that has physical access, typically in the form of a per car switching charge. As a result of the arrangement, the shipper facility gains access to an additional railroad. The STB said its rule was a remedy for poor service. After the STB approved the rule, three major railroads – Union Pacific (UP), CSX and CN – filed a challenge in the court, saying the rule was unlawful. The US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit said in its decision this week that the performance standards in the rule were arbitrary, capricious and unsupported by the record. The court granted the petition to vacate the rule and sent it back to STB for further action. The chemical industry has generally been in favor of reciprocal switching and submitted statements in favor of the rule. Jeff Sloan, senior director of regulatory and scientific affairs at the American Chemistry Council (ACC), said the ACC was disappointed with the court’s ruling, but not overwhelmed. “When the rule was adopted, we felt it was too limited and would have limited benefits for chemical shippers,” he said. “But it is still disappointing that – even if you know this very limited attempt to increase access to competitive rail service – has been denied by the court.” Sloan said the STB has authority to use reciprocal switching in two ways – when it is in the public interest, and when it is necessary to promote competition. “We felt the better approach was for the board to use the tools that Congress gave it to promote competition more broadly,” Sloan said, “and I think this decision confirms that.” The rule was passed under the previous presidential administration, and Sloan said he sees nothing that would indicate the current administration is likely to oppose the rule if it was based on promoting competition. “The administration has issued a number of executive orders on regulations, and they have asked the agencies to focus on regulations that are anticompetitive,” Sloan said. Sloan said it is still too early to predict the path forward. “We would strongly urge the board to look at the options it has to use its statutory authority to promote competition,” Sloan said. The chemical industry is one of the largest users of the freight rail system, and it relies on efficient, reliable, competitive railroads to meet its transportation needs. “When it falls short, it is harmful to US chemical producers,” Sloan said. Eric Byer, president and CEO of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), said he respects the court’s decision while urging the STB to work toward providing shippers with a meaningful reciprocal switching remedy. “The STB’s original goal, to address inadequate rail service and provide more competitive access, is both necessary and long overdue,” Byer said. “In recent years, widespread rail service challenges have exposed critical vulnerabilities in the freight system, and the chemical distribution industry continues to face the consequences of limited-service options and poor reliability.” Railroads are vital to the chemicals industry as chemical railcar loadings represent about 20% of chemical transportation by tonnage in the US, with trucks, barges and pipelines carrying the rest. Canada-based chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. About 80% of Canada’s chemical production goes into export, with about 80% of those exports going to the US.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s trade group representing chemicals producers Abiquim has expressed concern over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports, calling for technical dialogue to resolve the dispute. In a written response to ICIS, Abiquim said the issue holds major relevance for the chemical sector, not only due to direct exports to the US but also because the industry supplies key inputs to export sectors including food processing and pulp and paper. The Brazilian chemical sector runs a significant trade deficit with the US, importing approximately $10.4 billion, while exporting just $2.4 billion in 2024, said Abiquim. The resulting trade deficit in favor of the US stood at $7.9 billion – by volume, the deficit totaled 6 million tonnes, said Abiquim. US petrochemicals subsectors such as caustic soda, polyethylene (PE), or acetic acid, among many others, export in large numbers to Brazil and could be greatly affected if Brazil retaliates to the tariffs in kind. “The chemical industry advocates treating international trade relations exclusively on the basis of mutual economic gain and the free market, following the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). In a scenario subject to political interference, we believe that technical dialogue is the best way to resolve this issue,” said Abiquim. “Both sides are at risk of losses, as they are important markets for each other’s exports. Therefore, negotiations are necessary to avoid potential losses for all parties involved.”

This summary was created by ICIS hydrogen editor Jake Stones and ICIS policy and regulation analyst Aayesha Pathan UPDATED: This analysis was updated to provide greater clarity around the total emissions allowance for low-carbon hydrogen instead of the emissions reduction required. LONDON (ICIS)–On 8 July 2025, the European Commission published its much-awaited delegated act for low-carbon hydrogen, opening the door to regulated low-carbon hydrogen production via natural gas with carbon capture and storage technology. ICIS has produced the following summary of the delegated act and details provided in its annex as a means of supporting the market.

LONDON (ICIS)–The biodiesel market looks poised for lower supply if UK-based fuels supplier and distributor Greenergy finalizes new plans to shut its UK biodiesel site in Immingham announced on Thursday. Greenergy began consulting to cease operations at its biodiesel plant, according to a company statement.  This follows a strategic review to evaluate the plant’s commercial viability in May, when production was halted. “In light of continuing market pressures, we unfortunately do not have enough certainty on the outlook for UK biofuels policy to make the substantial investments required to create a competitive operation at Immingham,” Greenergy said in its statement. The drop in supply as a result of the plant’s potential closure may not necessarily ease market conditions though. This is mainly because of a steady flow of biodiesel from the US. UK biodiesel producers are facing sustained headwinds, as lackluster domestic demand collides with a surge in tariff-free imports from the US and heavily subsidized supplies from China, further undermining market competitiveness. European major Trafigura acquired Greenergy’s European operations in March 2024. Greenergy’s CEO, Adam Trager said he was looking to have “urgent talks” with the government on a higher quota of biofuels in UK petrol and diesel consumption. This would support demand in the biofuels sector, in particular biodiesel. Biodiesel, which can be derived from vegetable oils, animal fats, or other waste-based bio-feedstocks, is used as fuel in diesel engines.

LONDON (ICIS)–Petrochemicals will remain a key component of oil demand through to 2050, according to the latest forecast published by OPEC on Thursday. Petchem demand set to rise by 4.7m barrels/day by 2050 Increasing GDP and non-OECD populations drive increase Regulatory, environmental concerns pose challenges to growth The World Oil Outlook forecasts that demand from the petrochemicals sector will significantly increase, by 4.7 million barrels a day, from 15.5 million barrels/day in 2024 to 20.2 million barrels/day in 2050. The sector is set to account for 16% of total oil demand in 2050, from 14% in 2024, with 90% of that growth coming from the Middle East and China as new capacity comes on stream. Petrochemicals demand for oil will predominantly be as a feedstock, as more competitively priced fuels such as natural gas remain viable alternatives. While natural gas and biomass are expected to increase their shares as a source of feedstock, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will remain more suitable products for many downstream materials. Petrochemicals oil demand in the OECD will likely mirror tight oil production in the US, which produces LPG and ethane as feedstocks in that market. “Accordingly, demand in this sector is expected to grow until around 2035 and then start a slow decline for the rest of the forecast period,” the report said. This would see offtake from OECD countries reach 7.7 million barrels/day by 2050, close to its level in 2024. MACRO, DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERSOverall demand is driven by expected GDP growth, rising population and income levels, and expanding industries and technologies that these products use, including renewables, electric vehicles (EVs) and construction. “It is assumed, however, that this growth potential will be partly constrained by regulations and actions linked to environmental concerns,” the report advised. “These relate to commitments to reduce the sector’s carbon footprint, the push to increase recycling, restrictions on single-use plastics, implementing ‘Extended Producer Responsibility’ schemes, an increasing penetration of bioplastics and improved circularity of petrochemical products.” The outlook cautioned that uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs could also weigh on the chemicals market dynamics and downstream products. Naphtha demand is expected to grow from 2.8 million barrels/day in 2024 to 3.1 million barrels/day in 2030 in OECD countries, and remain around this level for the entire forecast. OECD ethane/LPG demand is expected to rise by more than 600,000 barrels/day in the medium term before softening, partly as a result of a decline in petrochemical demand but also on LPG substitution in other sectors. The outlook expects aviation to be the only segment that will show growth over the entire forecast period, with even this experiencing some limitations, adding around 1 million barrels/day between 2024 and 2050. China remains the dominant country for oil demand, peaking at 17.7 million boe (barrels of oil equivalent) a day in 2035, driven by petrochemical growth and heavy transportation, but subsiding to 17.1 million boe/day, in part due to increased EV use. Oil consumption growth in India is expected to rise from 400,000 barrels/day in 2024 to 1 million barrels/day in 2050, with naphtha used as the primary feedstock. Petrochemical demand from non-OECD countries will be particularly strong as a result of population growth and an increasing middle class. In response, oil consumption is expected to rise to 12.5 million barrels/day in 2050, from nearly 8 million barrels/day in 2024 – an incremental increase of 4.6 million barrels/day. Demand for ethane/LPG from non-OECD countries will increase by more than 4 million barrels/day between 2024 and 2050, while naphtha will add another 2.4 million barrels/day to incremental demand during the same period. The global population is predicted to rise by around 1.5 billion people, from 8.2 billion in 2024 to almost 9.7 billion by 2050, mainly in non-OECD countries. MOBILITY TO REMAIN PIVOTALTransport is set to remain “the backbone of oil demand” to 2050, accounting for 57% of global consumption in 2024, and is expected to largely retain this share over the entire forecast period. This accounts for both road travel and the aviation industry. Overall energy demand is predicted to grow by 23%, with demand for all fuels expected to rise apart from coal. Oil consumption is expected to reach 123 million barrels/day by 2050. Oil will retain the most significant share of the energy mix, just below 30%, with oil and gas accounting for over half of demand between 2024 and 2050. The share of renewables is set to increase by 10 percentage points from 2024, to 13.5% in 2050. Chemicals usage is in part attributed to growth in demand from both segments, as products will be used for renewables, for instance in manufacturing photovoltaic panels for solar energy. The percentage of oil, gas, and coal in the energy mix was around 80% in 2024, “only a little less than when OPEC was founded in 1960, despite energy consumption increasing more than five-fold over that time”, the report noted. Although the long-term forecast is for increased energy demand, the outlook cautioned that volatility around the global economy and energy markets could alter the landscape quickly. In 2024 petrochemicals production, along with growth in the aviation sector, were cited as the drivers of oil demand, which rose by 1.3 million boe/day compared with 2023, supported by sustained growth in transport and residential sectors in developing countries. This growth was primarily driven by the continued expansion of the petrochemicals and aviation sectors, as well as sustained growth in road transportation and residential sectors in developing countries. Focus article by Morgan Condon