LONDON (ICIS)–European methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) reporter Gabrielle Jordan and methanol senior editor Eashani Chavda discuss the supply-demand dynamics of each market as both face atypical, subdued demand in the third quarter, on a below-par summer driving season. Topics discussed include: Supply-demand dynamics Increasing import reliance Potential US tariffs and their effects Podcast by Gabrielle Jordan and Eashani Chavda

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co (MPHC) reported a net profit of Qatari riyal (QR) 379 million ($104.1 million) for the first six months of 2025, a 5% year on year decline compared to the same period last year, amid declining prices and macroeconomic headwinds, the Qatari chemicals firm said on 12 August. in Qatari riyal (QR) million H1 2025 H1 2024 % Change Sales 585 559 5 EBITDA 610 627 -3 Net profit 379 398 -5 Weak industrial activity and cautious consumer spending contributed to subdued demand for products such as ethylene (C2) and its derivatives during the first half of 2025, said MPHC. At the same time, there was a surge in global capacity, leading to heightened competition and lower operating rates, and contributing to some project delays or shutdowns. “Additionally, fluctuations in feedstock and energy costs, particularly crude oil and ethylene, have added to the pricing volatility,” MPHC added. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, production increased, primarily driven by notable growth in volumes in the petrochemical sector. MPHC recorded an increase in sales volumes compared to the first half of 2024 despite lower total revenue, thanks to stronger operational performances. During the first half of 2025, the chlor-alkali segment suffered from lower average selling prices compared to the same period last year as sluggish demand and macroeconomic pressures persisted. Oversupply and reduced ethylene prices also weighed on market sentiment. Sharing an update on its 350,000 tonne/year polyvinyl chloride (PVC) project, MPHC said it is expected to commence production during the second half of 2025. ($1 = QR3.64)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Navigating the muddled world of petrochemicals requires more than just data—it requires constantly evolving scenarios. The old one-size-fits-all view is dead. The U.S. transshipment rules are the latest headwind, creating immense uncertainty for a key petrochemical import market: Vietnam. Are these tariffs a genuine threat or a policy destined to unravel? I’ve developed three scenarios to help us understand the potential outcomes for Vietnam’s petrochemical sector, inspired by analysis from the Eurasia Group and the pressures facing the White House. 1. Best Case: “Pragmatic Abandonment” The rules are so complex and unworkable that the U.S. quietly rolls them back. Pressure from American importers and the logistical nightmare for Customs and Border Protection forces the administration’s hand. Petrochemical Impact: This would be a huge win. The “China Plus One” strategy flourishes, driving a surge in manufacturing FDI. Demand for polyolefins and other petrochemicals booms, with little downward pressure on pricing from converters. 2. Medium Case: “Navigating the New Normal” The rules aren’t abandoned, but they’re also not effectively enforced. This creates a state of perpetual friction, where trade gets through but with significant delays and shortages. Petrochemical Impact: Demand growth for petrochemicals slows to low single digits. Converters become more price-sensitive, and Vietnam’s role as an “escape valve” for major exporters from the Middle East and Asia is diminished. 3. Worst Case: “Political Paralysis” The rules are unworkable, but the U.S. government stubbornly sticks to them for political reasons. The resulting paralysis chokes off investment and trade, causing a deep recession in Vietnam. Petrochemical Impact: This leads to negative demand growth. Converters face extreme price sensitivity, and import volumes slip dramatically as the manufacturing base contracts. This situation highlights why we can’t rely on a single forecast. Understanding these different futures is essential for managing risk and seizing opportunity. What scenario do you think is most likely to play out? Let’s discuss. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Legislation continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of the recycled plastics industry. From global policy framework efforts to community-based mandates, regulatory development is targeting plastic waste reduction, increasing recycled content thresholds, and shifting supply chain dynamics to engage all stakeholders. GLOBAL POLICY EFFORTSSince 2022, the United Nations led Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) has convened five rounds of international negotiations to develop a legally binding framework to address and reduce plastic pollution, known as the Global Plastics Treaty. The next meeting round (INC-5.2) is located in Geneva, Switzerland, starting on 5 August 2025, where members urged to finalize the Treaty. Expectations remain uncertain as over 100 participating countries are pushing to align on the language and scope of the Treaty. Treaty initiatives include enforceable obligations for global caps on virgin material production, recycled content thresholds, and EPR frameworks. If finalized, the Treaty could accelerate demand for recycled materials and pressure governments and brands to invest in recycling infrastructure to support the supply chain. By harmonizing global recycling standards, the Treaty aims to generate a circular economy through utilizing legal and financial incentives for brands and governments to accelerate demand for recycled materials and investments into the supply chain. So far, US officials have maintained a cautious stance on some Treaty concepts and are currently displaying an opposing stance towards initiatives that aim to limit virgin plastic production. Instead, expressing that production controls should be determined at a national level to emphasize cost effectiveness and job supportive solutions. This stance is similar to other oil and gas producing nations that advocate for the Treaty to focus on waste management and recycling, rather than imposing upstream restrictions that would reduce domestic jobs. US FEDERAL LEGISLATIONWhile the US does not currently have an active federal policy targeting plastics recycling, there are various federal initiatives that influence the market: Federal funding: Recent federal loan distribution adjustments from the Department of Energy have impacted the funding for recycling facilities such as International Recycling Group and Eastman. Proposed tax incentives: Formally announced in July 2025, the CIRCLE Act aims to encourage investment in infrastructure by reducing tax liability on the private entity investor. The initiative expects accelerated investment in infrastructure to stabilize consumer recycling streams, generate domestic jobs, and reduce reliance on imported material. Indirect impacts of virgin plastic policy: The Trump administration has signaled intentions to expand domestic virgin resin production, which may increase cost premiums between virgin and recycled materials as longer virgin supply brings down virgin markets. Intended outcomes of this initiative may be restrained by new tariff dynamics, though the net outcome is similar, including domestic oversupply and therefore decreased domestic operating rates. Chemical recycling support: There is a possibility for the federal administration to support chemical recycling initiatives, generating policies that accept the technology as a manufacturing process rather than waste process, which can yield financial benefits and tax incentives to encourage investments into the industry. Impacts of shifting trade dynamics: Trade policy under the current administration favors reducing dependence on foreign materials. The US recycling market imports significant volumes of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) feedstock to compensate for low domestic collection rates, particularly that of quality waste. Potential trade tariffs may challenge the domestic recycling market to operate cost effectively while limiting imports. US STATE POLICYState-level legislation is creating both opportunities and compliance challenges for producers and recyclers. Mixed approaches across states have created a fragmented landscape, complicating compliance for national brands. Highlighting key state-wide plastics recycling legislation, there is currently no overlap between the states with active chemical recycling acceptance and states with active Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) or Post-Consumer Recycled (PCR) policies. At this time, brands and recyclers are likely prioritizing compliance with Oregon EPR legislation, which officially launched July 2025, while similarly preparing for the rollout of Colorado and California’s EPR frameworks, both of which are scheduled to begin phased implementation this year. State-by-state laws are transforming the US recycled plastics landscape into a patchwork of markets where recycled polymers fluctuate in value based on the local policy. Recyclers operating in states with extensive regulations may command higher premium pricing in comparison to states with minimal policy. This may encourage regional sourcing strategies and investments in local collection and processing infrastructure. MARKET OUTLOOKLegislative policy is a key force shaping investments, innovation, and pricing in the plastics recycling market. As more states implement and enforce legal guidelines, producers and recyclers must adapt to evolving requirements or face legal penalties. For instance, Washington and California PCR programs have established a penalty of 20 cents/lb for every pound of recycled content the brand falls short of the policy threshold. While still in the initial stages of implementation, stakeholders of plastics-related legislation have responded to the guidelines with a mix of urgency and caution. Some stakeholders are quickly launching long-term contracts with partners to support circular targets, while those that tail behind cite struggles to achieve circular goals due to challenges conforming to fragmented policy, rising costs, and shortage of quality material. While the US recycling market is currently challenged with cost-sensitive materials and uncertainty around trade policy impacts, the key driving forces of the market – such as legislation and brand sustainability goals – are expected to continue driving long-term demand for recycled materials. Specific categories such as post-consumer recycled material and food grade certified recycled material are expected to experience significant market competition with bottleneck supply constraints. As stakeholders face increased pressures to develop a circular economy, understanding and anticipating the policy and supply-chain landscape are becoming critical steps for brands and recyclers seeking to maintain compliance, competitiveness, and credibility. Insight article by Corbin Olson

BARCELONA (ICIS)–As a completely new chemical industry landscape unfolds before us, leaders should harness AI, innovation and consolidation opportunities in high cost regions. Industry faces structural – not cyclical – challenges Overcapacity and competition squeeze Europe Demand decouples from GDP, shrinking market size AI can boost efficiency and forecasting accuracy. Specialties and low-carbon products need careful thinking Global chemical companies withdraw from Europe Local chemical companies can gain market share via mergers & acquisitions (M&A) M&A and national champions may drive consolidation Defence sector offers immediate, well-funded opportunities In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Richard Carter from Carter Consultancy and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore has upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5-2.5% from 0-2% previously, amid better-than-expected economic performance in Q2 2025, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Tuesday. Improved Singapore GDP growth forecast amid tariff suspensions in May US tariff effects to cloud GDP growth in 2025 Manufacturing to slow down as export front-loading moderates The economic outlook, however, remains “clouded by uncertainty” and headwinds may shrink growth further this year, MTI said in a statement. Economic growth in most advanced and regional economies, which include ASEAN, has been better than expected as a 90-day suspension on US tariffs delayed negative trade impact, alongside a de-escalation of trade tensions between major economies including China, Japan, the EU, and many southeast Asian countries. “Meanwhile, the US and China continue to be engaged in trade talks, with indications that the 90-day tariff truce between the two countries could be extended,” MTI said. On Tuesday, China and the US announced that they had agreed to a further 90-day extension on “reciprocal” tariff suspensions until 10 November. As front-loading of exports moderates and US tariffs take effect from 7 August, Singapore’s growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year as demand weakens in manufacturing, MTI said. While Singapore is subject to 10% baseline tariffs by the US, other Asian economies apart from China have received between 15-25% levies. Singapore grew by 4.4% year on year in the second quarter, while on a quarter on quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the Singapore economy expanded by 1.4%, swinging from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. Growth was primarily driven by the wholesale trade, manufacturing, finance & insurance, and transportation & storage sectors, particularly as export front-loading took place amid US trade tariffs levied on most countries in April. In the second quarter, the manufacturing sector expanded by 5.2% year on year, following the 4.7% growth in the previous quarter. Manufacturing growth during the quarter was driven by output expansions across all except the chemicals and general manufacturing clusters, MTI said. Meanwhile, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 7.1% year on year in the second quarter, up from 3.3% growth in the first quarter, according to Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) on Tuesday. Trade statistics for the month of July will be released on 17 August. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China and the US have agreed to suspend tariffs on each other’s goods for an additional 90 days to 10 November, following US President Donald Trump’s executive order signed on 11 August. Trump made the announcement of the tariff suspension on his social media platform Truth Social. All other tariff measures with China will continue to apply, according to the White House. The two countries had held talks in Stockholm, Sweden on 28-29 July and in London in June leading up to the announcement, led by He Lifeng, Vice Premier of China’s State Council, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, China affirmed in a joint statement on Tuesday that it will continue to suspend its additional tariffs on US goods for 90 days starting 12 August, while retaining a 10% baseline ‘reciprocal’ tariff, and that the US would do the same to Chinese goods. Both countries will continue trade negotiations, with the US describing talks as “constructive” The original deadline for tariff suspensions was 12 August, after negotiations between China and the US in May followed a trade war that skyrocketed levies on each other in excess of 100%. Thumbnail photo shows Qingdao Port in Shandong province, China. (Source: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock) Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde islands and could become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, but is not expected to threaten the US. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane center (NHC) said Erin is moving west at 20 miles/hour and is expected to continue on this path for the next several days. The following image shows the storm could be nearing Puerto Rico by Saturday. Source: National Weather Service Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 45 miles/hour (75 km/hour) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Weather and Climate Research department each maintained their predictions of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricanes directly affect the chemical industry because plants and refineries shut down in preparation for the storms, and they sometimes remain down because of damage. Power outages can last for days or weeks. Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and highways, which can prevent operating plants from receiving feedstock or shipping out products. Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes. Other plants and refineries are scattered farther east in the states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida – a peninsula that is also a hub for phosphate production and fertilizer logistics.

MADRID (ICIS)–Unipar faces minimal direct exposure to US tariffs but is suffering indirect effects as global supply chains are hit by trade tensions creating high levels of uncertainty, the CEO at the Brazilian chloralkali and vinyls producer said. Rodrigo Cannaval said that downstream segments and key end markets are suffering the impact of the increased tariffs imposed by the US on several countries, not least Brazil which is subject to a 50% import tariff. “Unipar doesn’t export to the US so, in that regard, is little impacted by this tariff issue, but we have to observe the impacts on our clients’ chain,” said Cannaval, speaking to reporters and chemical equity analysts late on Friday. “For example, take a report from the Rio Grande do Sul footwear industry which said they were being impacted by these measures and this, in turn, impacts PVC [polyvinyl chloride] demand.” Cannaval said that while current impacts remain “incipient,” Unipar is keeping a vigilant monitoring of potential demand effects as trade policy consequences filter through industrial supply chains. Beyond specific tariff effects, the CEO highlighted how trade tensions contribute to general market instability affecting global petrochemical flows and pricing dynamics. “There is great uncertainty in the global market, given all the tariff theme, which is also making freight prices and flows quite uncertain. At this moment, we need to foster demand. And once this demand exists, then we’ll see the impacts of new sources and competitive freights reaching Brazil,” said Cannaval. “This means we have to have, again, rigidity, cautious management and much control to be passing to the next periods. This is today’s vision, given all this scenario and this industry context.” Last week, Brazil’s polymers major Braskem said the potential negative impact from US import tariffs to Brazilian goods would be “negligible” as only under 1% of its sales in the first half of 2025 were shipped to the US. Unipar has emerged as one of the best performing Brazilian chemical producers amid a generalized downturn which has hit other companies hard. Unipar’s second-quarter earnings and net income rose sharply, year on year, while Brazilian polymers major Braskem’s earnings fell and the company continued posting a net loss during the period. The company’s CFO Alexandre Jerussalmy also confirmed earlier talks with Braskem for a potential acquisition of some of its assets, adding that Unipar is “ready to grow” although nothing is certain yet. Front page picture: A Unipar production site in Brazil Picture source: Unipar