SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s economy grew by 0.5% year on year in the second quarter, avoiding a technical recession, the central bank’s data showed on Thursday. Exports, imports grow as South Korea’s economy recovers slightly Race to negotiate lower tariffs hit snag with cancelled US talks GDP growth forecast could be 0.7% if tariffs remain – AMRO On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose by 0.6% between April-June 2025, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. Exports improved by 4.2% year on year on increased semiconductors, petroleum products and chemical product shipments, while imports were up 3.8% on an increase in energy items, such as crude oil and natural gas. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene, toluene and styrene. Private consumption, accounting for roughly half of the country’s GDP, increased by 0.5% year over year in the second quarter. Manufacturing expanded by 2.7% year on year in the second quarter, up from the 0.4% growth in the first three months of 2025. PRESSURE TO MEET TARIFF DEADLINE MOUNTS South Korea faces a race to negotiate lower tariffs on the country imposed by the US, currently set at 25% and will take effect on 1 August if a deal is not reached. However, scheduled talks between the two countries on 25 July were cancelled as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had a scheduling conflict, according to South Korea’s Finance Ministry on Thursday. The meeting will be rescheduled, the ministry added. Depending on the trade talk outcome, South Korea’s economy might grow by just 0.7% this year, according to Singapore-based ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) in an outlook on 23 July. Another key focus for South Korea is reducing automotive tariffs, with auto majors such as Hyundai and Kia dependent on exports to the US. A precedent has been set via a US-Japan trade deal, which reduces Japanese automotive export tariffs to the US to 15% from 25% previously. TRADE MINISTER EYES PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY REFORMS Plans to revitalize the petrochemical industry have also stalled amid political instability wrought by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law back in December. New Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, Kim Jung-kwan, who took office in June, has expressed his willingness to restructure South Korea’s petrochemical industry, starting with the consolidation of naphtha cracking centers (NCC), located in the cities of Ulsan, Yeosu and Daesan. The NCC is a facility that produces general-purpose products such as ethylene, propylene and benzene, which are building blocks for the petrochemical industry. Laws preventing monopolies under the Fair Trade Act are a current stumbling block for such consolidation plans, and an exemption from the clause will have to be sought for plans to proceed. The hope is that a new government and greater political stability will pave the way for the restructuring of the struggling sector, even in the face of US tariffs threatening to slow the global economy down. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has proposed new industry standards for low-carbon, clean and renewable hydrogen, introducing stricter carbon thresholds that align renewable hydrogen with international benchmarks, particularly those of the EU. China tightens hydrogen carbon limits and introduces a formal life cycle accounting method to guide industry compliance and emissions tracking New rules align with international standards, paving way for future long-term export compatibility Standard supports a multi-pathway model to back both fossil and renewable hydrogen The draft 2025 “Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Evaluation Standard” also preserves a multi-pathway development model that supports diverse hydrogen production routes, and hence could accelerate domestic hydrogen industry growth, reflect the nation’s “establish-before-break” approach to energy transition, as well as enhance future export readiness. The standard, overseen by the China Electricity Council and led by Guoneng HydrogenTech, aims to be finalized by August 2025. It marks a shift from the 2020 group-led T/CAB0078—2020 to a government-backed industrial standard under the National Energy Administration (NEA). The upgrade strengthens China’s regulatory foundation to prepare for future international certification and trade. The 2025 revision introduces stricter carbon intensity caps: The 2025 standard also defines, for the first time, a clear methodology for calculating carbon intensity thresholds. The baseline carbon intensity of hydrogen production in 2020, the year when China first proposed its “dual carbon” goal, was calculated at 17.704 kgCO2e/kgH2, (kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen) weighted across coal-based, natural gas-based, and industrial by-product hydrogen. Coal-based hydrogen: Set at 24 kgCO2e/kgH2, based on International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates and empirical data from six major domestic projects including those from China Energy and Sinopec, averaging 23.4 kgCO2e/kgH2. The figure reflects the dominant method in China and is considered broadly representative. Natural gas hydrogen: Benchmarked at 11.45 kgCO2e/kgH2, in line with IEA’s Opportunities for Hydrogen Production with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in China report. A domestic survey of 21 projects showed a broader range (7–17 kg kgCO2e/kgH2, hence averaging 12 kgCO2e/kgH2), but the IEA average was adopted for consistency and stability. Industrial by-product hydrogen: Established at 2.88 kgCO2e/kgH2, based on data from 37 projects across the five key hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration clusters in China: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhengzhou, and Hebei. Sources include coke oven gas, chlor-alkali, steam cracking, propane dehydrogenation, coal tar upgrading, styrene production, and others. Weighted averages were calculated by production volume. Using the emission reduction forecasts by China Energy Investment Corp in its “China Energy Outlook 2060”, the standard sets carbon targets for clean and low-carbon hydrogen reflecting projected improvements by 2040 and 2060. Renewable hydrogen’s threshold is derived from measured emissions during electrolysis and compression, plus grid electricity-related emissions. China has established detailed methodologies for calculating hydrogen’s carbon footprint using a full life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, or a cradle-to-gate scope, which aligns with global practices in carbon accounting. The 2025 draft hydrogen standard defines the carbon footprint of hydrogen (CFPH2) as the sum of greenhouse gas emissions from four stages—raw material extraction, transportation, production, and on-site storage—minus any carbon dioxide captured and permanently stored via carbon capture and storage (CCS). The calculation is expressed as: CFPₕ₂ = (E_raw + E_trans + E_prod + E_sto – R_CCS) × A_H2 / Q_H2 Where: CFPH2 is the carbon footprint of hydrogen (kg CO2e per kg H2) E_raw = emissions from raw material acquisition (t CO2e) E_trans = emissions from material transport (t CO2e) E_prod = emissions during hydrogen production (t CO2e) E_sto = emissions from on-site storage and handling (t CO2e) R_CCS = CO₂ captured and permanently stored (t CO2) A_H2 = allocation factor for hydrogen relative to co-products (%) Q_H2 = quantity of hydrogen produced (t) THREE-TIER SYSTEM SUPPORTS INDUSTRIAL SCALING This 2025 standard codifies a three-tier system – low-carbon, clean, and renewable hydrogen – designed to accommodate diverse production methods, including fossil fuels-based production with CCUS. This approach supports industrial scaling while avoiding early bottlenecks, consistent with the government’s build-before-phase out strategy for new energy like hydrogen. The EU’s latest regulatory move underscores the relevance of China’s strategy. In July 2025, the European Commission published the methodology for defining low-carbon hydrogen, requiring a 70% reduction in greenhouse gases compared with unabated fossil fuels. The regulated act complements existing RFNBO (Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin) protocols and applies to both domestic production and importsand recognizes CCUS-based fossil fuels as eligible production pathways of low-carbon hydrogen. EXPORT READINESS LIMITED DESPITE ALIGNMENT IN STANDARD China’s new draft renewable hydrogen threshold (≤2.00 kgCO2e/kgH2) is among the world’s most stringent. Combined with estimated emissions from domestic transportation and for deliveries to Europe, the total carbon footprint remains under the EU’s RFNBO limit. For renewable hydrogen, inputs must come exclusively from non-fossil sources powered by renewable electricity, echoing EU requirements for RFNBOs. Clean and low-carbon hydrogen have no such restrictions on feedstock type or energy source. China’s stricter hydrogen rules bring it closer to global standards, but the country’s export readiness remains limited in the immediate years. Renewable hydrogen makes up merely 2% of national output at present, with coal continuing to dominate.. In addition to scaling up hydrogen production, large-scale exports will require robust export logistics and infrastructure, technical validation, trusted certification systems, mutual recognition of certification mechanisms such as Guarantees of Origin and third-party voluntary schemes, and stronger emissions tracking across the supply chain — all of which remain underdeveloped. The new standard in China lays the groundwork for future alignment with EU rules and long-term access to the global markets. Insight article by Patricia Tao Visit the Hydrogen Topic Page for more update on hydrogen

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-based Blue Polymers has registered a company at the site of Evergreen Recycling’s plant in Riverside, California, according to a state filing, amid talk that Blue Polymers plans to buy the site. Blue Polymers is the joint venture between waste magnate Republic Services and distribution giant Ravago. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The new company, Blue Polymers Riverside, LLC initially filed a statement of information with the California Secretary of State on 8 July 2025. The mailing address of the new company is the site of Evergreen’s facility in Riverside. The fate of the Evergreen Riverside facility has been the center of market speculation for over a year. Evergreen had recently announced the partial closure of the Riverside facility in January, laying off over 50 workers and shutting down bale and flake processing equipment at the end of March. Market conditions in California have been particularly difficult for domestic recyclers in recent years. Recycler margins are being squeezed between elevated bale feedstock costs due to export demand from Mexico, and low sales prices due to competition with imported resin. Several recyclers in the region have been known to cut production during various downcycles – sometimes by as much as 40%. The purchase of the Riverside facility complements existing assets of Republic Services, who have been producing recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) flake out of their Las Vegas, Nevada, polymer center since late 2023. Now, flake has a guaranteed end market in the region, though overall R-PET demand conditions in the West Coast remain shaky. Republic Services Polymer Centers sort mixed plastic waste and produce R-PET flake, while sending sorted waste polyolefin material to Blue Polymers facilities for further processing. Blue Polymers facilities will then flake and pelletize the recycled polypropylene (R-PP) and recycled polyethylene (R-PE) material, to be distributed by Ravago. With this potential acquisition, Blue Polymers would also enter the R-PET pellet market. The first Blue Polymers facility is now running in Indianapolis, Indiana, and the second in Buckeye, Arizona, is slated to be operational by end of year. The third Republic Services Polymer Center is likely to be Allentown, Pennsylvania, according to a February property sale record to owner Republic Polymers III, though it is unknown if there will be a co-located Blue Polymers facility.

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe’s oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets remain structurally weak, with some players beginning to feel the onset of the summer slowdown. Ongoing economic weakness and geopolitical uncertainty continue to dampen sentiment, with activity expected to slow further from late July into August as summer holidays begin. Oxo-alcohols and their derivative markets are not expected to experience significant demand changes in H2 2025. Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter, Marion Boakye,  joins acrylate esters editor, Mathew Jolin-Beech, and glycol ethers editor, Cameron Birch, to discuss current conditions along the oxo-alcohols value chain.  

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US and the Philippines reached a trade deal, under which the US will impose 19% tariffs on imports from the island nation, while its shipments will enter the country duty free, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday. “In addition, we will work together Militarily,” Trump said on social media. No reports of any trade deal were found on websites of the Philippine Information Agency or the Philippine News Agency. The rate disclosed by the US is 1 point below the 20% rate that Trump proposed in a letter he sent to the Philippines. Chemical trade between the two countries is relatively small. The Philippines exports mostly polyethylene terephthalate (PET) to the US and imports polyethylene (PE), base oils and acrylate esters, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. The Philippines is the largest source of US imports of coconut oil, a feedstock used to make oleochemicals. The following table shows 2024 US imports from the Philippines and exports to the Philippines. Figures are in US dollars. Imports for Consumption ($) Domestic Exports ($) US Deficit ($) 13,930,354,398 8,293,021,350 5,637,333,048 Source: US International Trade Commission The Philippines is the fourth country with which the US said it reached a trade deal, following agreements struck with the UK, Vietnam and Indonesia. The US said its imports will enter Vietnam and Indonesia tariff free. It will impose tariffs of 19% on Indonesian imports and 20% tariffs on Vietnamese imports. For UK imports, the US will impose 10% tariffs. The UK made concessions on US imports of ethanol and beef. NEGOTIATIONS ONGOING FOR NUMEROUS COUNTRIESIn July, the US proposed tariffs on imports from the EU and 24 countries. The proposed rates will take effect on 1 August if the countries cannot reach a trade agreement or if the US does not postpone the duties. The following table shows the proposed rates and the actual rates for any countries with which the US said it reached trade agreements. Country Proposed rate Trade Deal Algeria 30% NA Bangladesh 35% NA Bosnia and Herzegovina 30% NA Brazil 50% NA Brunei 25% NA Cambodia 36% NA Canada 35% NA EU 30% NA Indonesia 32% 19% Iraq 30% NA Japan 25% NA Kazakhstan 25% NA Laos 40% NA Libya 30% NA Malaysia 25% NA Mexico 30% NA Moldova 25% NA Myanmar 40% NA Philippines 20% 19% Serbia 35% NA South Africa 30% NA South Korea 25% NA Sri Lanka 30% NA Thailand 36% NA Tunisia 25% NA

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Sherwin-Williams expects prices for some of its petrochemical feedstock to decline during the second half of 2025 amid a weakening demand outlook that led the paints and coatings company to lower its earnings and sales guidance for the year. The following table compares the company’s latest earnings guidance with its previous one. LATEST PREVIOUS Net sales Up or down low-single digits Up low-single digits Diluted net income/share $10.11-10.41 $10.70-11.10 Adjusted net income/share $11.20-11.50 $11.65-12.05 Source: Sherwin-Williams Shares of Sherwin-Williams are down by more than 2%. ARCHITECTURAL VOLUMES WORSE THAN EXPECTEDSherwin-Williams is lowering its guidance in part because architectural sales volumes were softer than expected. In addition, the company has reduced production gallons within its global supply chain, which introduced inefficiencies. The overall outlook is for demand to be softer for longer, said Heidi Petz, CEO of Sherwin-Williams. She made her comments during an earnings conference call. Mortgage rates will likely end the year at 6.5%, according to Fannie Mae, a US company that buys home loans and securitizes them. Mortgage rates need to fall below 6% before the housing market gets a boost, Petz said. Demand actually deteriorated in some segments, such as new residential, do-it-yourself (DIY) and coil coatings. “To be clear, we expect no help from the market over the remainder of the year,” Petz said. SOFTER DEMAND CONTRIBUTES TO DEFLATIONThe weaker economic outlook has led Sherwin-Williams to expect costs to decline modestly for some of its raw materials, such as solvents and some of its resins. On the other hand, tariffs are pushing costs higher for applicators, extenders, pigments other than titanium dioxide (TiO2) and packaging. Many paint cans are made of steel, and the US has imposed new tariffs on imports of the metal Possible tariffs on lumber and other timber products would indirectly affect Sherwin-Williams by raising costs for house construction, a significant end market for its architectural coatings. The US started a section 232 investigation into such imports, and a report is due at the end of November. SHERWIN-WILLIAMS SPEEDS UP COST CUTTINGBecause of the weaker outlook, Sherwin-Williams is speeding up its earlier cost-cutting plan. The company is now planning on $105 million or 32 cents/share of restructuring initiatives for 2025, up from $50 million or 15 cents/share announced earlier in the year. The program should cut annual costs by $80 million. SHERWIN-WILLIAMS SEES CHANCE TO TAKE MARKET SHARE FROM COMPETITORSSherwin-Williams’ competitors are contending with the same low-growth outlook, and its largest competitors have made “significant reductions in customer-facing positions and assets”, Petz said, without naming the companies. One unnamed competitor is imposing high single-digit price increases during the middle of the painting season, a move that can disrupt customers’ operations. Sherwin-Williams sees these moves by its competitors as an opportunity to capture market share. “We continue to believe we are at a major inflection point in the North American architectural coatings industry and we refuse to miss this once-in-a-career opportunity that’s unfolding before us,” Petz said. Sherwin-Williams did not discuss any opportunities presented to the company by the sale of PPG’s US and Canadian architectural coatings to American Industrial Partners (AIP). (recast paragraph 1 with the year 2025.)

LONDON (ICIS)–German chemical, pharmaceutical and other companies can expect to see a sharp decline in their exports to the important US market, as a result of tariffs, Jorg Kramer, chief economist at Germany’s Commerzbank, said in a webinar hosted by chemical producers’ trade group VCI. US protectionism to last for years Germany to see near-term pick-up in GDP Berlin unlikely to dismantle domestic obstacles to growth Commerzbank assumes that a US-EU trade deal, once reached, could lead to an average US import tariff of 15% on EU goods, which could imply that Germany’s exports to the US drop by one-third, Kramer said. The US tariffs marked a “historic shift” (Zeitenwende) away from globalization to de-globalization, over the coming years, if not decades, he said. “This will make for a difficult environment for Germany’s industry, and of course for its chemical industry,” he said. At the same time, US tariffs on China were leading to more exports from China to Europe and Germany, putting pressure on prices, he said. The causes for the US sentiment against free trade could be found in China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, Kramer said. Without China’s integration into the WTO, and the issues that caused, the high level of US protectionism would not have occurred, he said. Chinese companies had built up massive overcapacities, causing declining producer prices and a push into export markets, he said. About 23% of Chinese companies were making losses yet continued to operate, he noted. US TO AVOID RECESSION Meanwhile, although the tariff uncertainties would lead to lower economic growth in the US as well, the country would not fall into recession, Kramer said. US President Donald Trump had taken over a “very solid economy”, Kramer said. Trump was inaugurated on 20 January. Since the pandemic, the US economy grew by a cumulative 12%, Kramer said. That growth alone was equivalent to Germany’s total GDP, demonstrating the “underlying dynamic” and strength of the US economy, he said. GERMANY WILL NOT RISE TO TARIFF CHALLENGE As for Germany, the country would see a recovery next year, largely driven by lower interest rates and planned debt-financed government spending on infrastructure and defense, he said. There would be a near-term boost to GDP as the government was shifting defense and infrastructure spending out of its core budget, which would then create new room for spending in the core budget, he explained. The recovery, with GDP growth of about 1.4% in 2026, may be a “flash in the pan”, but that was still better than a permanent recession, he said. Germany’s GDP fell in both 2023 and 2024. For 2025, economists currently forecast 0.2-0.4% growth. However, Kramer is skeptical that Germany will rise to the US tariff challenge and take it as an opportunity for a much-needed reset or restart (Neustart) of its economy, with Berlin addressing bureaucracy, high taxes, high labor costs, high energy costs, complex and expensive permitting processes, and other impediments to growth, he said. Taxes: As it stands, it remains unclear if the new coalition government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz will really cut corporate taxes, Kramer said. Labor costs: Germany’s already high labor costs and social security levies would continue to rise, he said. Infrastructure: The government’s promised investments in infrastructure would continue to take years to realize as the country’s many environmental groups remain powerful, meaning that they can block or delay projects. Energy: Germany would remain a high-cost country, and many chemical companies have already reacted by shutting capacities, he said. Bureaucracy: While promising to reduce bureaucracy and red tape, over the last 20 years all German governments failed to keep those promises. Reducing bureaucracy could only succeed if government trusts companies, and Kramer doubts that the government does, he said. Meanwhile major German chemical firms – BASF, Covestro and Brenntag – have already written off 2025 and cut their earnings forecasts amid weak demand and the tariff uncertainties. VCI, for its part, expects a 2% decline in Germany’s chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) in 2025. Please also visit: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo: The seat of Germany’s parliament in Berlin. Source: Shutterstock.

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Slowing demand growth and a battle for market share between Saudi Arabia and the US could see crude oil prices drop significantly by the end of the year. High oil prices stimulate more production, low prices less Saudi Arabia and the US battle for market share Global demand for oil is around 100 million barrels/day Electric vehicles (EVs) have destroyed 2 million barrels/day of oil demand Around 20% of global vehicle sales are EVs Oil prices could fall to $40-$45/barrel by the end of the year Oil demand growth weakest in 16 years Low oil price is double-edged sword for chemical markets In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: From 1992 until 2021, predicting chemicals and polymers markets was simple. Booming China, youthful consumer demand, and stable globalization made assumptions as comfortable as an old pair of carpet slippers. Climate change risks felt distant, and plastic waste implications were largely overlooked. Not anymore. The slippers have fallen apart. We’re now navigating wildly difficult market conditions, like walking barefoot on a pebble beach – sharp pains could hit at any moment. Some analysts are waiting for a return to the “Old Normal.” But as the saying goes, “Those who can’t count the things that count, count the things that don’t count.” Markets are much more complex now; we must acknowledge this to move forward. The good news? AI offers a lifeline. It can help us measure complex patterns humans can’t, from the impact of climate migration on demand to how geopolitical shifts reshape trade. It can also optimize plastic waste recycling and effectively monitor carbon emissions for fair taxation/credits. This new era demands multi-layered scenario planning. For example, you should combine my Iran-Israel crisis scenarios, from my 1 July post, with three global economic scenarios (produced with the help of ChatGPT Plus) stemming from US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements. Here’s a snapshot of what could happen: Best-Case: Tariffs soften, markets stabilize, and global GDP takes only a mild hit. Medium-Case: Tariffs escalate, retaliation begins. Supply chains stress, stagflation fears return, and major economies flirt with recession. Worst-Case: All-in trade war, depression risk. Global GDP contracts sharply, trade collapses, and unemployment surges worldwide. Confused? You should be! The only sensible response is to embrace complex and nuanced scenario planning to protect your business. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.