News and analysis

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Asia-US container rates surged this week as trade between the US and China is expected to surge amid the 90-pause on reciprocal tariffs between the two nations. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed minimal increases in the low-single digits, but rates from supply chain advisors Drewry showed significant increases of 19% from Shanghai to New York and 16% from Shanghai to Los Angeles, as shown in the following chart. Following the latest US–China trade developments, Drewry expects an increase in Transpacific spot rates in the coming week due to shortage in capacity. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said the 90-day pause is expected to lead to a surge of activity, where spot rates will peak and then flatten as carriers redeploy capacity to match demand over the next two to four weeks. “The US-China announcement on the temporary lowering of tariffs fired the starting gun for shippers to rush as many imports as they can during the 90-day window of opportunity,” Sand said. “There is no time to waste for these shippers and the rush of cargo will put upward pressure on spot rates on Transpacific trades.” But Sand said that a deeper dive into data shows shippers paying prices towards the market mid-high for rates agreed post the US-China announcement, while legacy agreements struck before 12 May will continue to keep a lid on the bubbling market averages for a short time. The following chart shows Xeneta’s rates from North China to the US Gulf. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, also expects to see a surge in imports. “We are likely to see a significant demand rebound in the near term as shippers replenish inventories that may have started to run down in the past month and as many Chinese manufacturers have high levels of finished goods already ready to ship,” Levine said. With an August deadline for the possible return of higher tariff levels, it is also likely that the near-term ocean demand rebound will mark the start of more frontloading, Levine said. “If so, it would also mark the early start of this year’s peak season, which could end earlier than usual as well for the same reasons,” Levine said. TANKER RATES STABLE TO LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were stable to lower this week with rates for parcels from the US Gulf (USG) to Asia dropping once again. Rates from the USG to Asia ticked lower both for smaller parcels and larger parcels. Overall, market activity is weaker for most destinations to Asian ports, prompting owners to reposition tonnage to bridge the gap between southeast Asia and northern destinations. Overall, along this route there is very little quoted, aside from the usual contract of affreightment (COA) volumes there has not been much activity, besides the usual methanol and monoethylene glycol (MEG) cargoes. From the USG to Brazil, the market COA volumes remain steady as there were some inquiries and much less space is available for May for part cargoes, as COA nominations appear completed for the month. According to one ship broker, “owners are reporting very limited parcel space available”. The usual mix of caustic soda and methanol seems to be most visibly seen quoted in the market. For the USG to Rotterdam, there are some bits of cargo space still available for May. Most of the outsider vessels that were on berth have already sailed, and only the regulars remain at this time as they push tonnage availability which is all but full. However, there were steadier quotes styrene, methanol and caustic seen in the market this week for June loadings. Freight rates are now expected to remain steady for the time being. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

16-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Businesses in the chemical-heavy US state of Texas expect a partial but swift pass through of the costs they expect to bear from the nation's tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Friday. The Dallas bank is one of 12 regional branches of the nation's central bank, and it based its findings on the Texas Outlook Surveys it conducted for the first quarter. More than half of Texas businesses said they expect to pass through costs within a month of the tariff proposals and announcements, as shown in the following chart. Passing through costs was the most common response to the tariffs among Texas businesses, especially among manufactures, as shown in the following chart. Chemical companies discussed similar strategies during their recent earnings conference calls. Passing through all of the costs of the tariffs is unlikely because Texas business are pessimistic about the outlook of the economy, the Dallas bank said. The new order indices turned negative in April for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) and a composite of the surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve. Services slowed according to the Texas Business Outlook Survey and other surveys from the regional banks of the Federal Reserve. Although tariff pass throughs will be partial, Texas businesses still expect they will happen, and that should increase inflation, according to the Dallas bank. Thumbnail Photo: The flag of the US state of Texas, which is home to many refineries and petrochemical plants. (By Westlight)

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Asia benzene prices saw an uptrend early week. However, by Friday, these gains were erased by a drop in crude prices. Market gets boost from US-China trade breakthrough Early week increases of over $50/tonne eroded by oil drop at week's close Caution over sustainability of uptrend amid incoming European cargoes In this chemical podcast, Asia benzene editor Angeline Soh discusses the situation and some insights from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Over the past week, Asia ethylene players arrived in Bangkok, Thailand, to reflect on the industry’s drift towards oversupply, and probe opportunities for continued survival as supply-demand balance changes enter the horizon. Feedstock cost competitiveness, ethane conversion considerations on the table Consolidation a complex question, but looking more necessary for survival New SE Asia supply may cause supply-demand balance changes for Indonesia In this chemical podcast, ICIS editor Josh Quah discusses some insights gleaned from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Northeast Asia ethylene and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets have seen a slower-than-expected tempo of spot talks for June cargoes, with the main driver of uncertainty being unclear start-up timelines from new ethylene derivative expansions, particularly from Chinese PVC. Around 1.5 million tonnes/year of new PVC supply may face start-up postponements Import discussions on ethylene slow pending clearer demand picture PVC demand clouded by India-Pakistan tensions amid pre-monsoon season In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Jonathan Chou and Josh Quah discuss their findings from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–European acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets are facing ongoing demand weakness in 2025, as well as uncertainty in global supply and the potential impact expected from US tariffs. In this latest podcast, Europe ABS market editor Stephanie Wix and markets editor for the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations ahead. Demand expected to remain stable at a weak level through 2025 Macroeconomic challenges persist, players monitor US tariff situation Impact of ongoing antidumping investigation on ABS imports from South Korea, Taiwan ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products. ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibers for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

16-May-2025

BARCELONA (ICIS)–The agreement to pause steep tariffs between the US and China for 90 days allows normal business to resume, but chemicals CEOs still need to plan for structural changes to global trade. US-China tariff pause allows trade to resume between nations Will benefit chemical companies around the world But business leaders still need to plan for a more protectionist world Trade resumption could see huge spike in demand, snarling up logistics SABIC reportedly appoints banks to prepare for sale of European assets Sale could make strategic sense from a cost perspective But sale would reduce footprint in the EU with its 450 million citizens Upgrade and restart of SABIC’s Wilton cracker reportedly delayed In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS insight editor Tom Brown. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here. Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

16-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s tariff on US LPG has been cut from 125% to 10% for 90 days. ICIS analysts Shihao Zhou, Wang Yan, and Lilian Ren discuss what this means for US cargo flows, China's propane import prices and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) operation, and why market players remain cautious despite the relief. US cargoes regain competitiveness in the China market PDH run rates show signs of recovery CFR China propane prices may soften, but PDH demand offers support Market remains cautious amid temporary policy Related article: Our April analysis on the tariff hike

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Asia's petrochemical industry leaders are navigating a complex global landscape marked by unprecedented challenges, with a renewed focus on sustainability, innovation, and regional collaboration, industry leaders said on Friday. Oversupply, sluggish demand, trade conflicts weigh on industry Challenges open doors for transformation through digital innovation, efficiency Protectionist trade policies cast shadow over global economic activity Facing economic volatility, supply chain disruptions, and increasing environmental demands, top executives from across the region attending the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Bangkok emphasized that the industry must adapt to ensure continued prosperity. APIC 2025 with the theme “Ensuring a Transformed World Prosperity” runs on 15-16 May. "We are now standing at a defining crossroads," Federation of Thai Industries, Petrochemical Industry Club (FTIPC) chairman Apichai Chareonsuk said, acknowledging formidable pressures on the industry. He cited “economic volatility, supply chain uncertainties, and rising expectations for environmental responsibility" among the list of complex challenges facing the petrochemical industry. However, he viewed these challenges as opportunities for progress. "These challenges are also opening doors to transformation- through digital innovation, resource efficiency, and sustainable development," Chareonsuk said. INDIA AS BEACON OF GROWTH India, a giant emerging market in Asia, nonetheless, is a "beacon of growth” fueled by burgeoning end-use sectors, according to the country’s Chemicals and Petrochemical Manufacturers’ Association (CPMA) secretary general Shekhar Balakrishnan. The south Asian country is emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, he noted. This growth, he explained, is underpinned by a robust rise in end-use sectors, including automobiles, infrastructure, construction, among others. These sectors, he added, have propelled the petrochemical industry to new heights, adding that "the Indian petrochemical industry has entered a new phase of growth". "As I speak, a new world-scale cracker is in its last stage of commissioning," Balakrishnan said. Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) is slated to begin commercial operations at its refinery and petrochemical complex at Barmer in India's western Rajasthan state this year. The complex can produce 820,000 tonnes/year of ethylene and 400,000 tonnes/year of propylene. Furthermore, he noted that across the country, "new investments covering a broad spectrum of petrochemicals are materializing to augment India’s production capabilities further and make the petrochemical industry in this part of the world even more robust". Balakrishnan also drew attention to the widespread commitment to environmental responsibility in the region. "I will be failing in my duty if I do not highlight the tremendous efforts that organizations in India and the Asian region are making towards sustainability," he remarked. He stressed the balance between the industry's essential role and the need for responsible practices. "Petrochemicals are essential enablers of modern life … However, the collective challenge before us is to adopt smart, sustainable processes and technologies,” the CPMA secretary-general said. "The industry is actively embracing the circular economy, especially in polymers, creating huge opportunities for reuse and recycling while addressing the global crisis of material waste," he added. Balakrishnan highlighted the success of the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) framework in India. "This is already yielding significant societal benefits and setting the stage for sustainable industrial growth." "For instance, India today recycles over 90% of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles into value-added articles." PROTECTIONIST POLICIES PROLIFERATE Japan Petrochemical Industry Association (JPCA) chairman Koshiro Kudo said that "protectionist trade policies around the world" are casting a shadow over global economic activity. He also pointed to the disruptive influence on the industry of "growing geopolitical risks, fluctuations in tariff policies, economic security issues, problems in China’s real estate market, and the increasing frequency of natural disasters caused by climate change". In Japan, the operating rate of ethylene plants “has remained below 90% since May 2022, and has recently dropped to around 80%, continuing in a very challenging situation." Kudo also emphasized the industry's environmental obligations, stating that it "is also expected to play a role in maintaining the balance of the ecosystem by recycling CO2 [carbon dioxide], as well as supplying materials”. Achieving sustainability necessitates that "international cooperation and technological innovation in the petrochemical industry are essential, and it is necessary to fully leverage the power of chemistry", he said. JPCA's two-phase approach to structural reform is to focus first on applying available technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and developing innovative technologies for further emission reductions, and then on applying new technologies to achieve sustainable development goals, Kudo said. He emphasized the need to transform petrochemical complexes into "environmentally friendly 'sustainable complexes' through technological innovation" to function as environmental and energy infrastructure hubs. Kudo also drew attention to the demographic challenge of declining birth rates across Asia. He stressed the need to utilize technologies such as digital transformation, "green" transformation, and artificial intelligence to improve plant operation efficiency, facilitate technology transfer, accelerate R&D, and improve safety. Korea Chemical Industry Association (KCIA) chairman Hak-Cheol Shin described the current market as an "unprecedented crisis marked by global oversupply, sluggish demand, and full-scale trade conflicts" which calls for regional unity. "Amidst growing uncertainties in the global trading order, closer solidarity and cooperation among us are more crucial than ever to ensure the sustainable growth of our industry." "The external environment surrounding the petrochemical industry this year is more complex and challenging than ever before," he said. Shin warned that “the implementation of US tariff policies is expected to bring about cataclysmic changes in global trade". Exacerbating business challenges were "persistent oversupply centered around China" and "instability in raw material procurement stemming from the reorganization of global supply chains", he said. If downstream industries weaken due to tariff shocks, the petrochemical industry's growth momentum may also diminish, the KCIA chief said. Shin urged a proactive response to both market dynamics and increasing environmental demands. REGIONAL UNITY IS KEY "At this critical juncture, APIC members must demonstrate stronger solidarity and leadership than ever before," KPIA's Shin said. "While addressing internal and external risks such as trade conflicts and global oversupply, we must also remain fully responsive to the growing societal demands for enhanced environmental regulations, including carbon neutrality and key elements of the UN Plastics Treaty." Shin stressed the need to "enhance operational efficiency, optimize energy utilization, and shift toward high-value-added products through the adoption of cutting-edge technologies" to minimize environmental impacts and reinforce competitiveness. "As we navigate global challenges – from climate change to economic volatility – our industry stands at the forefront of delivering solutions that balance growth, sustainability, and societal progress," Malaysian Petrochemicals Association (MPA) president Bahrin Asmawi  said. Various initiatives are underway in line with Malaysia's National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR) and New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP 2030). These include investments in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCU), green hydrogen, and utilizing bio-based feedstocks, as well as accelerating adoption of renewable energy in production and chemical recycling. Asmawi stressed the indispensable nature of collaboration, saying: "No single entity can drive transformation alone." MPA is committed to fostering partnerships with the government, investors, technology providers, and communities, he said. Asmawi also proposed a united front among APIC members to address trade policy challenges, particularly suggesting that regional cooperation could lead to "better effective negotiating deals" in the context of recent US tariff announcements. Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan (PIAT) chairman Mihn Tsao emphasized in his key address at APIC 2025 "both the urgency and the opportunity of our time." The industry is "called upon to deliver not only economic value but also social and environmental responsibility," he said. "Innovation, sustainability, and partnership are no longer optional – they are essential to our continued development." Despite facing significant global headwinds in 2024, including geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and climate change, Tsao noted the Taiwanese industry's resilience and "steadfast commitment to transformation". This transformation, he explained, included intensified investments in green innovation, AI-driven process optimization, and sustainable material development. Taiwan has a formal commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050 through its "Climate Change Response Act" and the introduction of carbon fee regulations in 2024 as a "critical turning point", he said. Future focus areas must include developing high-value, low-carbon production, driving technological innovation through AI, and deepening international cooperation to secure competitiveness. "Collaboration across borders and industries is essential in addressing the global challenges we face: decarbonization, overcapacity, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and the fragmentation of the multilateral trading system." For Singapore, efforts to transform its industry in line with national sustainability goals, include the Singapore Green Plan 2030 and the national net-zero ambition by 2050, Singapore Chemical Industry Council (SCIC) chairman Henri Nejade said. This transformation includes the development of Jurong Island into a Sustainable Energy & Chemicals Park focusing on sustainable products, sustainable production, and Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU). Government initiatives like the establishment of a Future Energy Fund also support low-carbon and next-generation energy solutions. Nejade also emphasized the importance of regional cooperation in navigating regulatory landscapes through initiatives like the ASEAN Regulatory Co-operation Platform (ARCP). The ARCP is an industry-led initiative to drive greater engagements and capacity building involving all the regulators and industry representatives from all the 10 ASEAN member states. Such cooperation helps "address non-tariff barriers, thus helping to create conducive business environments." Insight article by Nurluqman Suratman Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: Leaders of the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) member countries. The event runs on 15-16 May in Bangkok, Thailand. (Nurluqman Suratman)

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–The US tariff policies and other economic headwinds present significant challenges for chemical exporters in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Nevertheless, opportunities and avenues for cooperation exist, especially with Asia, according to the secretary general of the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA). "Navigating the complexities of global trade is a top priority," Abdulwahab Al Sadoun told ICIS on the sidelines of the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025. The GCC region comprises six Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The GPCA plays a pivotal role in facilitating partnerships between companies in both the GCC region and China, a strategy that has gained momentum in recent years, Al Sadoun said. "We estimate that GCC chemical producers hold equity in joint ventures processing approximately 2.7 million barrels/day of crude and operating over 23 million tonnes per year of downstream petrochemical capacity across China, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore," said Al Sadoun. While US tariff policies present significant challenges for GCC chemical exporters, Al Sadoun sees opportunities amid the turbulence. “Even a baseline 10% tariff will raise the price of GCC chemical products in the US market,” Al Sadoun said, citing a paper published by GPCA that highlighted the potential effects of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Some products that would be particularly affected are high-volume, price-sensitive exports such as urea, paraxylene (PX) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). However, Asia’s dominance as a trading partner offers a silver lining. “Asia accounted for over half of our total exports in 2023," Al Sadoun said, with China, India and Turkey among key markets. "If China reduces imports from the US, the GCC can step in to fill that gap, provided we act swiftly to capture market share and diversify our trade partners,” said Al Sadoun. Asia also accounts for well over half of global plastics consumption, with more than 50% of all GCC chemical exports already flowing to Asia, Al Sadoun added. “Recent joint ventures, such as Aramco’s partnerships at Panjin and Gulei in China, both designed around crude‑to‑chemicals schemes that convert more than 50% of each barrel directly into petrochemical feedstock, demonstrate how upstream strength can be paired with local finishing capacity,” Al Sadoun said. GCC CHEM PRODUCERS HAVE COMPETITIVE EDGEAmid falling oil prices in 2025, Al Sadoun believes chemical producers in the Gulf still hold an advantage over competitors reliant on naphtha. “While crude oil prices may be falling, the Arabian Gulf’s gas-based model still gives chemical producers a clear cost edge over their naphtha-reliant competitors.” At the same time, he emphasized the importance of continuing to optimize energy use and focus on higher-value projects. Companies are channeling investments into specialty elastomers, crude-to-chemicals complexes and downstream sectors such as mobility, packaging and electric vehicle (EV) materials, Al Sadoun said. “With plant utilization in the Arabian Gulf running in the 90% range – far above most global peers – the region is well placed to ride out softer oil, provided it keeps lowering variable costs and broadening its product slate. “GPCA’s role is to benchmark those cost and efficiency gains across its membership and ensure best practice spreads quickly from one site to the entire Gulf cluster.” SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE A KEY FOCUSSupply chain resilience has emerged as a critical focus for Arabian Gulf chemical producers. “Recent shocks, such as geopolitical flare-ups, pandemic-era port closures, even weather-driven canal disruptions, have confirmed that leading companies cannot simply react; they must anticipate, adapt and seize the openings that turbulence creates,” Al Sadoun said. Al Sadoun pointed out four lessons: the first, route flexibility; the second, the need for end-to-end visibility; third, the need for regional buffer stocks such as joint warehouses in key import markets; and lastly, digital risk forecasting. The use of tools such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain and the Internet of Things (IoT) are moving supply chain management from reactive to predictive, while diversified sourcing and strategic inventories reduce single region dependency, Al Sadoun said. FOCUS ON RENEWABLES Even as the GCC region continues to leverage its cost advantage through gas, its member countries are also committed to energy transition. “GCC nations aim to source 25-50% of their energy mix from renewables by 2030,” Al Sadoun said, adding that the region is also investing heavily in carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), currently capturing 4.4 million tonnes of CO2 annually – 10% of the global CCUS capacity. Hydrogen production is another priority, with Oman, the UAE and Saudi Arabia setting ambitious targets. Oman has committed to producing 1 million tonnes of hydrogen by 2030, the UAE to 1.4 million tonnes of hydrogen by 2031 and Saudi Arabia aims for 4 million tonnes of hydrogen by 2030. "These initiatives are part of our strategy to reduce environmental impact while maintaining our competitive edge," Al Sadoun emphasized. APIC 2025 runs in Bangkok, Thailand, from 15-16 May. Interview article by Jonathan Yee (recasts paragraphs 1 and 7 for clarity)

16-May-2025