News and analysis

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian farmers reported growing more wheat, oats, soybeans, dry peas and lentils, but less canola, corn and barley in 2024, according to the production of principle fields crops report from Statistics Canada. The government agency said that overall yields were higher this year compared with 2023 but there were some areas where farmers continued to face issues related to dry conditions. This was true particularly in western Canada, which the report states had a promising start to the 2024 growing season. It noted that much of the prairies received timely precipitation during seeding, although cool conditions delayed crop development in some areas. Yet a lack of rain as the summer progressed, coupled with hot weather, resulted in lower yields in some areas compared with 2023. There were good field conditions throughout the fall months which allowed farmers to complete harvest ahead of schedule, with most crops out of the fields before data collection for the November field crop survey. The agency said there were locations that did receive above-average rainfall, specifically in Ontario and western Quebec, which when combined with increased summer heat benefitted growers with higher yields. Total wheat production rose 6.1% to 35 million tonnes in 2024, with Saskatchewan wheat production rising 12.2% to 16.5 million tonnes in 2024. In Alberta, higher yields resulted in a 6.4% increase in wheat production to 9.9 million tonnes, while Manitoba was up 0.7% to 5.5 million tonnes. Canola production decreased 7.0% nationally to 17.8 million tonnes in 2024, with this drop because of lower yields and harvested area, with the declined output attributed to the hot and dry conditions in parts of western Canada in July and August. Total corn for grain production fell 0.5% to 15.3 million tonnes in 2024 with harvested area down by 4.6% to 3.6 million acres, offsetting a 4.3% increase in yields to 168.7 bushels/acre. Ontario farmers, who grow almost two-thirds of Canada's corn were down 3.5% to 9.6 million tonnes, while Quebec rose 7.9% to 3.6 million tonnes in 2024. Manitoba farmers had 1.8 million tonnes in 2024 with lower harvested area, but yields were up 8.6% to 139.4 bushels/acre. Soybean production increased 8.4% nationally to 7.6 million tonnes in 2024 with the increase due to higher yields, which were up by 7.0% to stand at 49.1 bushels/acre, while the harvested area for the crop increased 1.3% to 5.7 million acres. In Ontario soybean production climbed 7.9% year on year to 4.4 million tonnes in 2024, while in Manitoba the harvested area fell 10.9% to 1.4 million acres in 2024. Production in Quebec rose 9.3% to 1.4 million tonnes in 2024, on higher yields and harvested area. Barley production was decreased by 8.6% to 8.1 million tonnes in 2024 because of lower harvested area, which the report said was partially offset by a 3.3% increase in yields to 63.2 bushels/acre nationally. Total oat production increased by 27.0% to 3.4 million tonnes as both harvested area and yields increased in 2024. The improvements in crop output reflects the sentiment towards fertilizer consumption within in Canada this year, with nitrogen and potash volumes having robust periods of consumption during the spring. There were additional stretches of demand with significant refill participant and a good post-harvest run of ammonia also taking place before the recent arrival of winter conditions. Sentiment is that spring demand could continue at a strong pace if nutrient values do not escalate over the coming weeks and if future crop prices either stay steady or can gain some slightly increase before sowings start again.

05-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 15 January deadline for finalizing a new labor agreement between unionized dock workers at US Gulf and East Coast ports and the negotiating entity for the ports is nearing with no clear progress on a key remaining issue – automation. This week, a union vice president criticized semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs) for eliminating jobs and posing national security risks in a post on the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) website. In response, the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), the group representing the ports, defended automation as essential for port modernization and addressing land constraints. The ILA paused a three-day strike on 3 October after agreeing on a wage increase, with a commitment to negotiate the remaining issues by 15 January. Top among the remaining issues is the automation or semi-automation at the ports, which the ILA is adamantly against because they think it will take jobs typically done by humans and which the USMX says is needed for the US to remain competitive. ILA Vice President Dennis A Daggett said in his post on the union’s website that the ILA is not against progress, innovation, or modernization – “but we cannot support technology that jeopardizes jobs, threatens national security, and puts the future of the workforce at risk”. Daggett explained that in the early-2000s, employers introduced semi-automated RMGs at a greenfield terminal on the East Coast, saying the move would create thousands of jobs. “What seemed like a win for one port turned out to be the project that is becoming the model for automation that could potentially chip away at many jobs at almost every other terminal along the East and Gulf coasts,” Daggett said. Daggett said 95% of work performed by RMGs is fully automated. “From the moment a container is dropped off by a shuttle carrier, the RMG operates on its own – lifting, stacking, and moving containers, including gantry and hoisting, without any human intervention,” Daggett said. “This includes the auto-stacking of containers in the container stack, which is also fully automated. Only in the last six feet of the container’s journey on the landside, when it is placed on a truck chassis, does an operator step in. But how long until employers automate those final six feet as well?” The USMX, in a response, said modernization and investment in new technology are core priorities required to successfully bargain a new master contract with the ILA – they are essential to building a sustainable and greener future for the US maritime industry. “Port operations must evolve, and embracing modern technology is critical to this evolution,” the USMX said. “It means improving performance to move more cargo more efficiently through existing facilities – advancements that are crucial for US workers, consumers, and companies,” the USMX said. “Due to the lack of available new land in most ports, the only way for US East and Gulf Coast ports to handle more volume is to densify terminals – enabling the movement of more cargo through their existing footprints. It has been proven this can be accomplished while delivering benefits to both USMX members and to the ILA.” The USMX stressed that it is not, nor has it ever been, seeking to eliminate jobs, but to simply implement and maintain the use of equipment and technology already allowed under the current contract agreements and already widely in use, including at some USMX ports. As an example, the USMX pointed to a terminal where modern crane technology was implemented more than a decade ago, which was previously limited to a 775,000-container capacity using traditional equipment. That same terminal nearly doubled its volume after incorporating the use of modern rail-mounted gantry cranes into its daily operations. “The added capacity delivered an equal increase in hours worked, leading to more union jobs, as the terminal went from employing approximately 600 workers a day to nearly 1,200,” the USMX said. “Moving more containers through the existing terminal footprints also means higher wages from the increased cargo, bringing in more money for volume/tonnage bonuses.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. No negotiations are currently underway with just about five weeks left before the deadline. Focus article by Adam Yanelli

05-Dec-2024

PARIS (ICIS)–Global specialty chemicals producer Arkema aims to supercharge growth in key targeted markets by leveraging proprietary chemistries to develop new products with clear sustainability and performance benefits. From France-based Arkema’s spinoff from energy giant Total (now TotalEnergies) in 2006, the company has undergone a major transformation from a diversified chemical company with a mixed bag of commodity, intermediates and specialty businesses, to nearly a pure play specialty and materials business today. “We had to revisit the strategy of the company in-depth, and we had a strong belief at that time that there was an exponential growth [opportunity] in innovative and high performance materials,” said Thierry Le Henaff, chairman and CEO of Arkema, in a video interview with ICIS. “So our strategy was to focus on specialty materials around three segments – adhesives, coatings solutions, and also high performance additives and polymers in order to make Arkema a pure specialty player,” he added. Le Henaff is the 2024 ICIS CEO of the Year, having been selected in a vote among his peers – the CEOs and senior executives in the ICIS Top 40 Power Players. M&A STRATEGY AND LATEST DEALSThe latest move in the company’s transformation is the acquisition of Dow’s flexible packaging laminating adhesives business for $150 million which just closed on 2 December. The deal adds about $250 million in sales to Arkema’s Bostik adhesives business, and Le Henaff calls it a “step change” for Bostik in the flexible packaging adhesives market, giving it a unique opportunity to be a key partner for customers across the packaging industry. Arkema will spend around $50 million in implementation costs or capex related to the acquisition and is targeting about $30 million in annual cost and development synergies after five years. “We are going to continue to invest in… cost optimization, but at the same time continue to change the portfolio, which means to invest in M&A,” said Le Henaff. The Dow deal comes on top of major acquisitions such as a 54% stake in South Korea-based PI Advanced Materials (polyimide films for mobile devices and electric vehicles) in December 2023 and US-based Ashland’s performance adhesives business (pressure-sensitive adhesives for auto and buildings) in February 2022. While the company will now focus more on organic growth, bolt-on acquisitions will be an important part of Arkema’s strategy in the coming years, he noted. One such smaller bolt-on deal was the April 2024 acquisition of a 78% stake in Austria-based Proionic, a start-up company for the development of ionic liquids, a key component for the next generation of EV batteries. HYPER GROWTH SUBMARKETSSpeaking of organic growth, the Arkema CEO has an ambitious goal of growing sales in certain parts of its specialty businesses at a rate triple that of its overall business through 2028. These high growth areas are green energy and electric mobility; advanced electronics; efficient buildings and homes; sustainable lifestyle; and water filtration, medical devices and crop nutrition. “It is really with this combination of our technologies [in] these submarkets… where we want to multiply by three, the average growth of Arkema. This means that in this market, we could deliver 12% organic growth while for the average of Arkema it would be 4%,” said Le Henaff. Arkema aims to grow these businesses from around 15% of sales in 2023, to 25% of total sales, which are projected to be around €12 billion, by 2028. These high growth areas with three times higher sales than the group average will account for 50% of the company’s R&D budget. “We have about 15 technologies, superior technologies, where we can really differentiate ourselves. Our strategy is really to take advantage of this sustainability trend,” said Le Henaff. “In fact, the answer to climate change is through the solutions we can develop for customers. This is really the core of our strategy,” he added. Within electric mobility, in addition to the acquisition of a majority stake in Proionic, Arkema in January 2024 took a stake in Tiamat, a pioneer in sodium-ion battery technology – a potential alternative to lithium-ion batteries. RENEWABLE RAW MATERIALS AND DECARBONIZATIONArkema is also undertaking organic growth projects in these hyper growth submarkets. One key project is in bio-based polyamide 11, used in bicycle helmets, consumer goods, wire and cable and medical equipment. “We are adding more and more renewable raw materials in the product range we are offering to our customers. One good example and very emblematic [of our strategy] is this polyamide 11 made from castor oil, which is a fully sustainable, renewable, bio-sourced, high performance polymer,” said Le Henaff. “We are very proud of it, and we have just invested in a plant in Singapore to accelerate the growth of this polymer,” he added. Its Rilsan bio-based PA 11 has an 80% lower carbon footprint versus traditional polyamide resins using fossil-based raw materials and conventional energy sources, according to the company. Arkema also recently launched more sustainable adhesive solutions, including its Kizen LIME range of packaging adhesives made with a minimum of 80% renewable ingredients, and Bostik Fast Glue Ultra+ for do-it-yourself (DIY) applications with 60% bio-based materials. Along with helping its customers decarbonize, the company is also decarbonizing its own operations, targeting a 48.5% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and a 54% reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030 versus a 2019 base. One major project is to decarbonize its acrylics production in Carling, France by installing new purification technology. The €130 million project should result in a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions at the site by 2026. GLOBAL FOOTPRINTAlong with its transformation into pure play specialties, Arkema has also diversified its global footprint, with more exposure in North America than Europe. Today Arkema is a global player with close to 40% of sales in North America, 25% in Asia and around a third in Europe, versus Europe at about 60% of sales when it was spun off in 2006, the CEO pointed out. “I still believe in Europe, but it's clear that we have a gap in competitiveness and also in demand. The pace of demand is slower for Europe than it is for the rest of the world,” said Le Henaff. “It's very important that our governments and the European Commission understand that the cost of doing business in Europe is too high compared to what it is in the rest of the world because of legislation, because of the cost of energy, because of the cost of raw materials,” he added. There is much work to do on this front to get Europe back to competitiveness and growth, especially for chemicals, he said. DEMONSTRATING RESILIENCEArkema’s geographic diversification and specialties focus has made it more resilient to challenging macroeconomic markets. In Q3, sales rose 2.9% year on year to €2.39 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) increased 5.4% to €407 million, the latter driven by 9.0% growth in specialty materials, offsetting a 7.3% decline in intermediates segment. Its overall EBITDA margin expanded to 17.0% versus 16.6% a year ago. A strong focus on efficiency and a healthy balance sheet has served it well. “Arkema over 20 years has doubled in size and we have a set number of headcount. This means that competitiveness and productivity is very important for Arkema, even if we are less vocal than other companies on this topic,” said Le Henaff. On the balance sheet side, net debt of around €3.11 billion is “tightly controlled” at a conservative two times last 12 months EBITDA. TRANSFORMATION NEVER OVERKey to success for Arkema is to continuously evolve, be nimble and be open to growth opportunities. “It’s never over. The status quo in this world is not possible, because the world is changing all the time, because of demography, because of geopolitics, for plenty of reasons, so we have to move forward,” said Le Henaff. “There are plenty of opportunities, but the opportunities of today won't be the opportunities of tomorrow. So we really need to have a company which is structured to be able to catch these new opportunities which arise all the time,” he added. Meanwhile, on the macro-outlook for 2025, he is cautiously optimistic. “We are all cautious because we thought 2023 would be the year of the rebound and also 2024, so we have to be cautious for 2025. But I'm cautiously optimistic,” said Le Henaff. “I still think that we should have some kind of rebound for 2025. We'll see if I'm right or not, but in the meantime, I would say the most important thing is we need to continue [evolving]. We are very glad to be in a unique position because at the end of 2024, we will have nearly fully financed billions of euros of projects, including external growth and organic growth,” he added. PEOPLE AND CULTUREKey to any ongoing transformation is of course the people involved. Arkema deems it critical to keep its people engaged with the mission. “I think, in a world which is quite volatile, quite changing, it's very important to have fixed points,” said Le Henaff. First, the long-term strategy and vision has to be attractive. But equally as important is having a corporate culture with clear and simple values. These five values for Arkema are: Solidarity, Performance, Simplicity, Empowerment and Inclusion. It is the culture that amplifies the inherent strengths in an organization, including technology, and smooths the path for continued successful transformation in an uncertain world, he said. Interview article by Joseph Chang Watch the exclusive Q&A video interview with Arkema CEO Thierry Le Henaff on the 2024 ICIS CEO of the Year landing page.

05-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Announced this week, beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company has updated many of their 2030 sustainability goals, in some cases delaying and minimizing targets, in other cases removing tangible goals all together. All goals have now been extended to a 2035 timeline. In support of this move, the company notes that they have assessed progress and identified challenges to achieving their original 2030 goals. This comes as companies grapple with the premium often associated with sought after food-grade, clear recycled resins, especially amid a weaker global macroeconomic environment. "These challenges are complex and require us to drive more effective and efficient resource allocation and work collaboratively with partners to deliver lasting positive impact," noted Bea Perez, Executive Vice President and Global Chief Communications, Sustainability & Strategic Partnerships Officer at The Coca‑Cola Company. This comes as the company has faced rocky unit case sales volumes in the North American market over the last several quarters. Most recently, the company posted flat quarter on quarter results, an improvement over negative volumes the prior quarter. In relation to packaging, the original goal of 50% recycled content by 2030 has been downgraded to a target of 35-40% recycled content in primary packaging. Specifically, they aim to reach 30-35% recycled content in their plastic packaging, which makes up nearly 50% of their packaging mix by number of units. In 2023, the company noted 27% of their primary packaging material by weight came from recycled content, 17% of which was recycled plastic. This now leaves a 10-year runway to achieve an additional increase of just 8% to reach their new recycled content target and 13% to reach their recycled plastic target. Additionally, the company has reduced their beverage container collection target from 100% by 2030 to 70-75% by 2035. As of 2023, the company noted 62% of the equivalent bottles and cans introduced into the market were collected for recycling or reuse. When looking at packaging design, the company noted they had converted more than 95% of their packaging to recyclable formats, nearing the 100% by 2025 goal. As many other converters and brand companies have also reckoned with, it can be very difficult to convert the final items, ones which typically require a complete re-design or additional cost to comply with recycling requirements. The company has now removed a virgin resin reduction goal, amid a poor result in 2023, where virgin plastic use actually increased due to business related growth. The prior reuse and refill goal was also removed. Coca-Cola now joins several other brand companies, such as Unilever, PepsiCo who have delayed or reduced their original ambitious goals amid bottom line pressure. It is uncertain how brand companies will demonstrate their commitment to packaging circularity sustainability in the long term, especially as leaders around the globe continue negotiating towards a global treaty on plastic pollution. While voluntary goals have boosted demand for recycled plastics markets, many recyclers and suppliers note that actual procurement efforts have been inconsistent. Many believe regulatory requirements are the only solution to securing long term demand for these materials.

05-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea is preparing to activate a market stabilization fund worth won (W) 40 trillion ($28 billion) following the country’s brief dalliance with martial law, with its slowing economy facing the prospect of increased US tariffs in 2025. KOSPI index falls for second day Prospective US tariffs to hurt exports Q3 GDP growth slows to 1.5% on year, up 0.1% on quarter At 06:30 GMT, the KOSPI composite index fell by 0.90% to close at 2,441.85, after shedding 1.4% in the previous session. The Korean won, meanwhile, was trading at W1,415 to the US dollar, off the lows of more than W1,440 on 3 December. While the fallout of the political crisis on the financial markets appears to be contained, South Korea may be bracing for further volatility next year. “As the domestic situation coincides with the external uncertainty caused by the inauguration of the new US administration, there is a possibility that volatility will increase, so the relevant agencies will closely monitor the market situation together and take all possible measures,” the Ministry of Economy and Finance said on Thursday. A task force has been created to check on the country’s overall economic health. Much of the concern stems from threats of US tariffs on all imported goods, which would affect Asia’s export-oriented economies including South Korea. Weak external demand caused the country’s overall export growth in November to decelerate to 1.4% year on year. In Q3, South Korea’s annualized GDP growth slowed to 1.5% year on year due to weakness in both domestic demand and exports, official data showed on Thursday. This economic weakness prompted the Bank of Korea (BoK) to cut its policy interest rates by 25 basis points twice in two months. Full-year 2024 and 2025 growth forecasts were trimmed to 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the fourth largest economy in Asia barely expanded in Q3, but the 0.1% growth represents a reversal of the 0.2% contraction in April-June, according to the central bank. On the supply side, manufacturing increased by 0.2% on quarter mainly due to increases in transportation equipment and machinery and equipment. Construction fell by 1.4% and services expanded by 0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Exports decreased by 0.2% on quarter as shipments of motor vehicles and chemical products dropped. Imports, on the other hand, rose by 1.6% due to increased demand for machinery and equipment. The cloudy political climate in the country is not expected to affect South Korea’s sovereign ratings and growth prospects, S Korean central bank governor Rhee Chang-yong was quoted by local news agency Yonhap as saying in a press briefing. “The martial law declaration was purely out of political reasons. We can separate such political events from economic dynamics,” Rhee said. He noted that the Korean won, which “weakened due to the negative news” is forecast to “gradually rise if there are no new shocks”. The won tumbled to a near two-year low of W1,444 against the US dollar on 3 December, but eased after martial law was lifted some hours later. Impeachment motions lodged at the National Assembly against South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol are up for voting on 7 December. “It is hard to forecast how things will unfold regarding the impeachment process, which adds uncertainties to the market. “But I also believe that the matter is not likely to give a shock to the market if history serves as any guide,” the central bank chief said, as reported by Yonhap. In a separate development, unionized workers of national railway operator Korea Railroad Corp (KORAIL) launched a strike from Thursday after failing to reach a wage agreement, according to media reports. Focus article by Pearl Bantillo Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang Thumbnail image: Members of Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) and civic groups hold placards and lighted candles during a demonstration calling for the dismissal and impeachment of South Korean president in Seoul, South Korea, 4 December 2024. (JEON HEON-KYUN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

05-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesia has initiated an antidumping investigation on imported polypropylene (PP) homopolymer products, according to a government document obtained by ICIS on Thursday. The products are under HS code 3902.10.40, based on the document dated 4 December from the Indonesian Anti-Dumping Committee (KADI). The investigation was requested by PT Chandra Asri Pacific and targeted at exporters from Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, South Korea, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, according to the document. Initial evidence suggests incidents of dumping by these exporters, resulting in losses suffered by players in the domestic industry in Indonesia which are producing similar products, KADI said. A questionnaire will be sent to those involved and interested parties can submit feedback or request a public hearing no later than 17 December, two weeks from the date of the notice. (Adds paragraphs 3-4)

05-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesia has initiated an antidumping investigation on imported polypropylene (PP) homopolymer products, according to a government document obtained by ICIS on Thursday. The products are under HS code 3902.10.40, based on the document dated 4 December from the Indonesian Anti-Dumping Committee (KADI) A questionnaire will be sent to those involved and interested parties can submit feedback or request a public hearing no later than 17 December, two weeks from the date of the notice.

05-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Crude and chemical markets have had little reaction so far to developments in France. The government of President Emmanuel Macron fell after members of Parliament (MPs) voted to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Barnier was appointed by Macron in September and was voted out by a combination of left- and right-wing MPs after the opposition parties objected to the budget put forth by the prime minister, according to French media reports. Macron has vowed to remain in office until his term expires in 2027 and will need to appoint a new prime minister before work on putting together a new government. European stock markets closed higher ahead of the vote as investors prepared for the no-confidence vote. Brent and WTI crude prices fell by more than a dollar, because of expectations that OPEC will extend its output cuts when it meets this week and on US government data showing a build in gasoline and distillate inventories that countered a drawdown in crude oil supplies.

04-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US November sales of new light vehicles ticked higher from the previous month and rose compared with the same month a year ago, but proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports by President-elect Donald Trump could create further headwinds for the industry. Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows year-to-date sales up by 1.7%. The following chart shows US auto sales from 1989 to present. Note: Gray bars show when the US was in a recession Auto sales are important because the auto industry is a key end market for chemicals demand. Although automobile sales and foreign truck sales were weak, this was offset by a strong gain in domestic light truck sales, according to Kevin Swift, senior economist for global chemicals at ICIS. “Affordability has been an issue in this market and is showing signs of improvement, which, if continued, will provide further tailwinds,” Swift said. But shares of publicly traded US automakers fell last week after Trump announced that he plans on levying 25% tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico as well as an additional 10% tariff on goods from China – all three of which are critical sources for the auto industry’s global supply chain. Swift said the latest report indicates that US consumers continue to be in the market for new vehicles and that continued improvement in sales will benefit industrial production. Swift said that inventories on dealer lots have improved by almost 46% compared with the same month a year ago, which should also help boost sales. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives, Swift said. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. Meanwhile, electric vehicles (EVs) and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Please also visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals

04-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Days before the shock declaration of martial law in South Korea by President Yoon Suk-yeol, political wranglings stalled the 2025 budget deliberations of Asia’s fourth-biggest economy. Opposition DPK wants heavy cut in 2025 national budget Impeachment looms for President Yoon No impact on petrochemical operations/trades “Tensions between the ruling PPP [People Power Party] and main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) have escalated as both sides have been unable to come to a consensus on the budget,” according to BMI Country Risk & Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Solutions Group in a note on Wednesday. DPK has proposed heavy cuts – to the tune of won (W) 4.1 trillion ($2.9 billion) – to the Yoon administration’s proposed budget of W677.4 trillion for next year, which represents a 3.2% increase from 2023. “As things stand, Yoon’s proposed 2025 budget … faces the risk of being watered down to KRW673.3trn amid strong opposition from the DPK which holds a parliamentary majority,” BMI stated. QUITE AN UNEXPECTED MOVE Most South Koreans, including players in the petrochemical industry, like the rest of the world, were baffled at Yoon’s declaration of emergency martial law late on 3 December. The last time the highly industrialized country in Asia faced martial law was in 1979, and no recent developments in the geopolitical and financial sectors of the country indicated that such a drastic measure would be taken. At close to midnight, Yoon had declared martial law – which meant military rule and curbs on civil rights – on national television noting that it was meant to crack down on pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional order in the country. "Martial law was quite surprising for us to hear because it hasn't happened in the last 40 years," said a soda ash distributor. The declaration of martial law and its withdrawal hours later has thrown South Korea into political instability. It was highly disruptive for market sentiment that for a time, suspension of trading was mulled, but was eventually called off when the martial law was rescinded about six hours after it was declared. South Korea’s Ministry of Finance and Economy and the Bank of Korea assuaged market fears of disruption by offering “unlimited liquidity support” to ensure market stability, immediately after the martial law declaration. The won weakened near two-year lows against the US dollar on 3 December at around W1,440 but recovered to around W1,412 levels as of Wednesday afternoon. The benchmark KOSPI composite index closed off lows at 2,464.00, down 1.44% from the previous day, after falling nearly 2% in intraday trade. “For now, we expect limited implications for the economy and financial markets as the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have responded swiftly by reassuring investors,” BMI said. “Notably, the central bank committed to boosting short-term liquidity and enacting measures to stabilise the FX [foreign exchange] markets, which aligns with our view that risks around the South Korean won, should remain contained for now,” it added. The central bank held an emergency monetary policy meeting on Wednesday morning, with the Monetary Board deciding “to keep all options open and to actively take market stabilization measures until markets are fully stabilized”. In late November, the BoK issued its second interest rate cut in as many months to prop up the economy, while trimming its GDP growth forecasts for this year to 2.2%, and for 2025 to 1.9%. In Q3, the country's GDP growth decelerated to 1.5% from a 2.3% pace set in Q2. The South Korean economy is expected to face added pressure next year amid US threats to impose tariffs on all imported goods. Like most of Asia, the country is heavily reliant on exports, with China and the US as its biggest trade partners. South Korea's export growth in November weakened to 1.4% year-on-year to $56.4 billion, while imports shrank by 2.4% to $50.7 billion, indicating domestic weakness. YOON’S FUTURE UNCERTAIN Calls for Yoon’s resignation is mounting, with lawmakers from DPK saying that if he does not resign immediately, steps will be taken to have him impeached. “We anticipate heightened political uncertainty in the near term. Yoon is now under intense pressure to resign. If he does not, we expect that it is only a matter of time before he is impeached,” BMI said. “If so, we believe Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will step in as interim leader, paving the way for elections to be held within 60 days, in accordance with the constitution,” it added. According to Korean news agency Yonhap, opposition parties – DPK and five others, including the Rebuilding Korea Party and Reform Party, submitted on Wednesday afternoon a motion to impeach President Yoon to the National Assembly. The motion – which was signed by 190 opposition lawmakers and one independent lawmaker, with no support from any ruling party lawmakers – will be reported to a parliamentary plenary session on 5 December and then put to a vote on either 6 December or 7 December. South Korea’s law requires that an impeachment motion be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours after the motion is reported to a plenary session, Yonhap said. Yoon, an inexperienced politician, became the 20th president of the country in May 2022 and is currently serving the third of his five years of office. Previously, he was South Korea's chief prosecutor. In its note, BMI noted that PPP leader Han Dong-hoon had urged Yoon to explain his decision and to dismiss defense minister Kim Yong-hyun, who advised the president to declare martial law “even as the finance and foreign ministers advised against it”. “The silver lining we think is that the swift reversal of the martial law underscores the resilience of South Korea’s institutions,” it said. NO IMPACT ON PETROCHEMICAL TRADESPlayers in the petrochemical industry are monitoring the political developments but noted no immediate impact on the commodities markets. "Politically, [it is] still unstable as the President is getting pressure to resign," a source at a phenol/acetone producer said. South Korea is a major exporter of ethylene, as well as aromatics such as benzene, toluene and styrene monomer (SM). "At this moment the situation has settled down, but we'll see how the government will respond to the issue,” the soda ash distributor said. “From the industrial side there is no huge impact because plants/factories are always running at full capacity so now we don't see any impact," he said. "But long-term impact, we'll need to see how other foreign companies and assets may move out of South Korea," the distributor added. For the time being, players are more pre-occupied with unsteady port operations in Daesan because of heavy winds which are affecting trades and cargo deliveries. Meanwhile, South Korea's petrochemical industry has its own troubles stemming from Asia's overcapacity. In the case of of major player Lotte Chemical, which swung into a net loss of W514 billion in Q3 2024, the company is making big changes to its  portfolio, selling or closing commodities businesses as it refocuses on higher margin specialties. South Korean industries, including chemicals, rely heavily on exports to China, whose self-sufficiency has grown over the years. Insight article by Pearl Bantillo ($1 = W1,414) Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang, Jonathan Chou, Evangeline Cheung, Helen Lee, Shannen Ng, Josh Quah and Clive Ong

04-Dec-2024