ICIS Supply and Demand Database

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer developer Genesis Fertilizers announced it has partnered with technology provider CARBONCO and has agreed to negotiate formal licensing and process design package services for a carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Genesis said this collaboration marks a significant step toward the potential production of sustainable, low-carbon ammonia and urea nitrogen fertilizer for their farming partners and the broader fertilizer industry in North America. Under the terms CARBONCO would be responsible for implementing a solution capable of capturing approximately 1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually, which would then be transported directly to a sequestration hub. If implemented, the CCS project would be built at the proposed Genesis Fertilizers production complex to be constructed in Belle Plaine, Saskatchewan, Canada. The company said both parties are confident that this first-of-its-kind CCS project would play a pivotal role in supplying exceptionally clean grain to the market. “In line with our ultimate low carbon intensity fertilizer goal, Genesis Fertilizers has been working with CARBONCO and is pleased to welcome them as our technology provider to explore an exciting opportunity to implement their carbon capture solution,” said Jason Mann, Genesis Fertilizers CEO. “We believe that CARBONCO is the most suitable partner for our project, offering a robust solution that meets our technical and commercial needs.” The front-end engineering design (FEED) phase for Genesis Fertilizers project is expected to begin within the next few months. The company said the final investment decision will be made based on the results of the FEED work and other critical steps, but it is aiming to commence commercial operations by 2029. As proposed there would eventually be both ammonia and urea production with plans to have 75% of output locked into farmer commitments with the balance sold on the open market. Genesis has previously said the goal of this development is to help farmers have access to a vertically integrate fertilizer supply and enable the production of low carbon grain.

13-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–As the remnants of what was Hurricane Francine continues to inundate and bring severe weather threats to parts of the southern US, the fertilizer industry in Louisiana was back in action on Friday having emerged mostly unscathed by the storm. Having escaped any confirmed property damage, with the largest obstacle the loss of power, plant facilities were said to be back online, with fertilizer producers including Nutrien having confirmed the lack of impact from Francine which made landfall on 11 September. Most of the problems faced in the last few days have been delayed and halted logistics given the fierce winds and heavy rains along with the brief stoppage of railroad and port operations. A common refrain was echoed by a producer source who said, “we had some logistical issues but no physical damage”. In Donaldsonville fertilizer producer CF Industries was heard to be back in production and loading supply as the storm brought some disruption to their transportation schedule. The company has not commented during this event but as a trader said, “CF now back running. Barges likely to get sorted over the weekend and river likely to be back open”. With the port in New Orleans (Nola) back in operation there was also further urea barges business done with expectations of a significant period of post-harvest application over the upcoming weeks not washed away by the recent weather. Harvesting campaigns have taken a hit and will be delayed for several days, possibly even longer depending on rainfall amounts. The concern is with a delay in these activities it creates an additional lag for starting post-harvest field activities like end of the year fertilizing. The real impact of this storm and its subsequent sway on domestic fertilizer direction likely comes once the extent of crop damage is understood, with the storm having arrived as there was considerable acreage nearing maturity or being harvested across several states. Lost of yields causing a reduction in income could mean a decrease in buying for immediate supply or reduced interest in pre-pay commitments.

13-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lifted the expectations for corn production slightly while soybean production is being projected to be down marginally according to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. For corn the monthly update is showing an outlook of increased production but for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Corn production is being forecasted at 15.2 billion bushels, which is an increase of 39 million bushels from last month and is based on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield, which is calculated at 183.6 bushels/acre. The September WASDE said the harvested area is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are reduced by 55 million bushels based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol during the period of 2023-2024. Total corn use is unchanged at 15 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, the USDA said ending stocks are reduced by 16 million bushels to stand at 2.1 billion bushels. The September WASDE said the season-average corn price received by producers is lowered by 10 cents to $4.10/bushel. For soybeans, the USDA said supply and use changes include lower production and beginning stocks as well as ending stocks. Without attributing a cause for the dip, the monthly update shows that soybean production is projected down by 3 million bushels for a total estimate of 4.6 billion bushels. The agency said lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023-2024. With the 2024-2025 soybean crush and exports unchanged, the September WASDE is projecting ending stocks at 550 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month. The season-average soybean price is forecast as unchanged at $10.80/bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on 11 October.

13-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Average global rates for shipping containers fell significantly this week, including a 21% decrease from Shanghai to New York, as shippers are shifting cargo deliveries to the US West Coast to avoid the planned strike on 1 October. A strike by union dock workers at East Coast and US Gulf ports seems more likely after International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) Wage Scale Delegates voted unanimously last week to support leadership’s intentions to walk off the job if a new labor deal is not agreed to when the contract expires on 30 September. Supply chain advisors Drewry said the shift has led to a decrease in demand that has pressured prices lower. Average global rates for 40-foot containers fell b y13% as shown in the following chart. As much of the peak-season demand has been pulled forward either to avoid tariffs or the labor issues, Drewry expects east-west rates to fall further in the upcoming weeks. The following chart from Drewry shows the decrease from Shanghai to both US coasts, as well as from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa which have also fallen significantly. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said rates from Asia to the US West could face upward pressure the deadline to make the decision to shift coasts has about passed. “Transatlantic shippers still have a little time left to move containers, and the approaching cutoff may be supporting the $300/FEU (40-foot equivalent units) increase in daily rates so far this week,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STEADY Rates for liquid chemical tankers ex-US Gulf were unchanged this week. On the transatlantic eastbound trade lane contract cargoes are keeping things steady with owners looking to fill holes of open space. October contract volumes on the transpacific route remain tentative but a shipping broker expects part cargo space to be available across the regular players. The USG-South America east coast trade lane was quiet this week, but the regular owners have space for prompt loading. Thumbnail photo: A container ship carrying cargo on its way to Antwerp Harbour. (By OLIVIER HOSLET/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

13-Sep-2024

SITGES, Spain (ICIS)–Chemical companies will find it easier to charge a green premium as the cost of carbon increases, fossil feedstock availability declines and customers realize the true value of the products they are buying. The cost of living crisis and poor profitability down industrial value chains mean that companies are resistant to paying more for low carbon and more sustainable products. But that will change as regulators push up the cost of carbon content in materials while the switch away from fossil fuels will make green alternatives more attractive, according to panel speakers at  the Fecc (European Association of Chemical Distributors) annual congress in Sitges, Spain. They argue that people will be willing to pay a green premium once there is regulatory support for carbon pricing, which will incentivize customers to take account of the savings low carbon products offer. Richard Jenkins, senior vice president for coatings solutions at France’s Arkema said: “The number of carbon credits will reduce, the number of companies seeking them will increase, and this will drive up the value of CO2 avoidance. So when I’m sitting in front of customers, I’m telling them they have to consider the whole cost of carbon – it might cost more per unit but overall you are saving on the costs of CO2.” The EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) works under the principle of “cap and trade” where  companies are granted allowances for the maximum amount of CO2 they may emit from their facilities. They may buy and sell their allowances but the overall volume is steadily reduced each year in line with the EU’s climate targets. As they become more scarce, the price tends to increase. Georg Winkler, senior partner for consultants McKinsey & Company added: “If you decarbonize polyethylene (PE) packaging and then break down the actual costs, they are tiny – this should only change the price of the product by a cent or so. Also, if we have a single-use-plastics tax in Europe then we can point out the cost saving to our customers.” Ib Jensen, president and CEO of Swedish specialty chemicals group Perstorp said: “I don’t like the term green premium; I prefer the term fossil discount. Consumers are increasingly ready to pay a premium, especially in B2C (business-to-consumer), but also in B2B (business-to-business) they are appreciating [the need for a] green premium.” As the transition to low-carbon transportation accelerates, demand for diesel and petroleum will decrease, leading to the closure of more oil refineries. In turn this will reduce availability of petrochemical feedstocks for chemical production, potentially pushing up the cost of these materials. Arkema’s Jenkins said: “I don’t believe that today’s fossil-based chemistry will remain at the same scale and cost that it is today. We drive a lot less than we used to and some of my suppliers are telling me that some raw materials will be less available in the future. I think the old solutions may start to cost more, and as we get to scale the cost of new solutions will come down.” He added: “There is a lot of focus on energy efficiency so solutions which contribute to an overall cut in the cost of use are important. Now you’re talking about value rather than per unit cost – what it is doing and enabling and solving versus what it is, which is product push.” The Fecc annual congress takes place in Sitges, Spain from 11-13 September 2024. Focus article by Will Beacham Thumbnail photo source: Jeppe Gustafsson/Shutterstock

13-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The soundtrack of my youth was the Canadian rock band, Rush. In the fabulous Tom Sawyer, the lyrics include: “His mind is not for rent, always hopeful yet discontent, he knows changes aren't permanent, but change is”. Don’t let your mind be rented by anybody who tells you that the global chemicals industry isn’t going through the most profound set of changes in its modern-day history. Nobody knows all the details of the changes that will be permanent. Anybody who claims they do know will lead you down a path away from essential scenario planning. We do know that in this world of flux and chaos at a micro level, the following macro trends are here to stay: Sustainability, ageing populations across most of the G20, much more volatile geopolitics, ever greater economic, social and political disruptions caused by climate change and the end of debt bubbles. How will, for example, geopolitics and rising trade tensions reshape global polycarbonate (PC) trade flows, demand and trade flows? In today’s post,  I look at scenarios for China’s net imports or net exports of polycarbonate in 2024-2030 based on levels of trade tensions and its ability to export to third-party countries such as Mexico. These countries have become a means by which China is getting around the trade tensions by relocating export-focused manufacturing plants. The ICIS base case forecasts that China’s PC demand growth will fall to an annual average of 3% in 2024-2030 from 17% in 1992-2023. Assuming this 3% demand growth, capacity growth at 4% and an operating rate of just 47% in 2024-2030 (the 1992-2023 operating rate averaged 68%), ICIS forecasts that China’s PC net imports will be around 460,000 tonnes a year. Let’s imagine in a world of increased trade tensions, China decides it cannot afford to rely on large volumes of imports. Because of the trade tensions, it also cannot export significant quantities of PC to countries such as Mexico to make autos, etc. Under this outcome, let’s keep demand and capacity growth the same in the base case but raise operating rates to 55%. Average annual net imports fall to just 80,000 tonnes. What if, though, trade tensions are not that bad? If we again keep demand and capacity growth the same as the base case but raise the operating rate to 63%, China becomes a net exporter at an annual average of 460,000 tonnes between 2024 and 2030. I plan to attempt to build new demand and supply models today's demographic, geopolitical, debt, sustainability and climate change realities. This is going to be immensely difficult. Failure will be a big part of any success. But given today's events, do we have any other choice? Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

13-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Francine charged through southern Louisiana and although it gave plenty of soaking rains to the communities and businesses it passed through, most of the fertilizer industry within Louisiana appears to have weathered the storm fairly well. With 100 mile/h winds, Francine was a Category 2 storm at landfall but as of late Thursday, was categorized as a post-tropical storm and was located south of Memphis, Tennessee, with winds down to 25 miles/h and moving north at 9 miles/h. Having a short window as Francine quickly developed and advanced in strength and speed, the domestic fertilizer participants and companies rapidly put their response plans into action over the first part of the week and prepared for the storm. The industry in the Gulf Coast region does have the experience of having to face these threats often, so they are familiar with the challenges and dangers presented but also have constructed facilities and other assets to withstand a tropical storm or hurricane. In New Orleans, there were winds measured at a top speed of 70 miles/h and there was tremendous amount of rainfall with an estimated total from Francine placed at 8.43 inches, with parts of Mississippi having received over 6 inches. Still even with the gusty winds, the city and the fertilizer infrastructure were not significantly struck considering past events faced by this community, with a market source saying that barge operations are seeing all cargoes accounted for. Over in Geismar, despite some reports that there were issues, Canadian fertilizer major Nutrien said it did not have any complications. “Fortunately, we had no impact at the Geismar nitrogen site. Our people are safe and the plants remain operational,” said a Nutrien spokesperson. Yet not all apparently fared as well because there was talk that producer Mosaic is understood to have its Faustina operations offline, but it has not confirmed any plant status. While in Donaldsonville, the power supply is understood to have been restored leading to expectations that there will be a resumption of production occurring soon. Producer CF, who has a large nitrogen complex in this location, has not responded to requests for comment about its storm preparation and has previously stated it will not comment on plant operations. The next big concern will be over how extensive the crops were damaged, which could take some time to determine. Yet with the fierce winds and strong downpours already experienced it is likely that vulnerable crops like cotton and corn would have been impacted. Although with the lesser severity of the storm, it is possible the impacts on other vital acreage like sugarcane and rice have not been as affected. There have already been concerns over farmers facing reduced income levels this year which has been heightened by crop price pressures and has weighed on fertilizer commitments. Combined, these factors make any prospects of lost yields and washed-away profits a real concern for both growers and fertilizer participants.

12-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical companies continue to assess the impact from Hurricane Francine on Thursday after the storm made landfall on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane on the Louisiana coast. Ascension parish, home to Geismar and its many chemical plants, was among the regions hardest hit by Hurricane Francine, which has caused hundreds of thousands of power outages. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have downgraded Francine to a post-tropical cyclone that is continuing to produce heavy rainfall across parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle, as shown in the following image. Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) CHEMICAL OPERATIONS Several chemical companies shut down their plants ahead of Francine's landfall on Wednesday evening and are assessing damage on Thursday, while some are in the process of restarting. Shell's refinery and chemical sites in Louisiana do not appear to have serious damage from Hurricane Francine, the producer said "at this early stage" on Thursday. Shell is conducting a thorough post-hurricane damage assessment at Geismar and Norco to ensure the integrity of its equipment, systems and processes. Downstream issues have caused Shell to curtail oil and gas production at Appomattox, Mars, Vito, Ursa and Olympus following Hurricane Francine, it said Thursday morning. Shell did not specify the downstream issues. Dow said its sites in Louisiana are safely resuming normal operations. It is unclear what steps it took in preparation for the storm and whether those steps had any effect on operations or production. BASF is assessing the impacts from Hurricane Francine at facilities located in the path of the storm, the company told ICIS in an update on Thursday. Louisiana is home to just above 25% of the total ethylene capacity in the US, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. It also has close to 50% of the country’s vinyls chain capacity – for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), chlorine, ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and caustic soda. Other significant exposures close to 50% of total US capacity include methanol, ethylbenzene (EB), styrene and low density polyethylene (LDPE). UTILITIES More than 262,000 customers in Louisiana were without power as of Thursday afternoon, according to the website poweroutage.us. The total was higher than 350,000 earlier in the day. There were more than 38,000 without power in Alabama, 13,000 in Mississippi and 11,000 in Tennessee. Ascension and Assumption parishes as well as the coastal parts of Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes appear to be among the hardest hit, said Entergy, a power company. OIL AND GAS The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) suspended all marine operations on 11 September, according to its website. An estimated 41.74% of current US oil production and 53.32% of US natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in as of Thursday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). PORTS The US Coast Guard has not yet activated Port Condition Recovery at the Port of New Orleans, but pilots are understood to be ready and able to start moving traffic once cleared. Lake Charles is also currently closed awaiting the Coast Guard to survey the channel, which may happen early on Friday. Operations at Pascagoula, Florida, and Mobile, Alabama, have also been suspended due to adverse weather, according to GAC Hot Port News. RAILROADS Railroads are telling customers to expect delays as they assess damage from the storm. BNSF issued an embargo impacting traffic between Beaumont, Texas, and New Orleans, Louisiana, including Amelia, Texas. The embargo affects interchanges at Amelia, Beaumont and New Orleans. While the embargo is in effect, permits may not be issued until the storm’s impact has been assessed. CSX is closely monitoring the remnants of Hurricane Francine as it moves north-northwest, potentially affecting the CSX network. While no service areas are currently impacted, customers with shipments through the CSX Southeast and Southwest regions could experience potential delays. Leading up to the storm, CSX implemented measures to protect its employees, customers and communities. "Our team is working diligently to ensure minimal service disruptions while maintaining the highest safety standards," CSX said. Norfolk Southern is operating as scheduled and a market participant told ICIS the railroad said it will work with connecting carriers to utilize alternative gateways where possible. The New Orleans Public Belt Railroad said on Thursday that it resumed operations at 14:00 local time (19:00 GMT) following damage assessments. With the Port of New Orleans shut down, railroad companies warned customers of delays as traffic will be diverted following the port's flood-gate closure. Additional reporting by Tracy Dang, Al Greenwood, Stefan Baumgarten, Emily Burleson, Bryan Campbell and Melissa Wheeler Track the latest updates on Hurricane Francine and its impact on chemicals on the Topic Page: Storm Season 2024.

12-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Green hydrogen company Ohmium International has announced a strategic partnership with clean ammonia firm Ten08 Energy, which will have Ohmium’s electrolyzer solutions supply Ten08 Energy’s project in Texas. The Texas project, located on the Gulf Coast, aims to produce 1.4 million tonnes of clean ammonia annually, using a combination of blue ammonia, produced from natural gas and carbon capture, and green ammonia, generated from renewable energy. It is envisioned as a significant step towards decarbonizing the ammonia industry and providing a sustainable and cost-effective solution to meet cleaner energy sources demand with the clean ammonia shipped to customers in Europe and Asia. “We are looking forward to leveraging the efficiency, cost effectiveness and high purity of the hydrogen produced by Ohmium’s PEM electrolyzers for this exciting project,” said Jean Perarnaud, Ten08 Energy CEO. “As grid and renewable energy capacity continue to expand, our project’s phased approach and Ohmium’s scalable solutions are poised to meet the growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.”

12-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ascension parish, home to Geismar and its many chemical plants, was among the regions hardest hit by Hurricane Francine, which has caused hundreds of thousands of power outages. UTILITIESNearly 350,000 power outages were reported in Louisiana, according to the website poweroutage.us. Ascension and Assumption parishes as well as the coastal parts of Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes appear to be among the hardest hit, said Entergy, a power company. CHEMICAL OPERATIONS Several chemical companies shut down their plants ahead of Francine's landfall on Wednesday evening. On Wednesday, BASF idled operations at Geismar, North Geismar and Vidalia, it said. The company is conducting safety assessments, and operations will resume once those are completed. Roehm is taking its methyl methacrylate (MMA) plant in Fortier, Louisiana, offline. Meanwhile, Dow said its sites in Louisiana are safely resuming normal operations. It is unclear what steps it took in preparation for the storm and whether those steps had any effect on operations or production. Louisiana is home to just above 25% of the total ethylene capacity in the US, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. It also has close to 50% of the country’s vinyls chain capacity – for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), chlorine, ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and caustic soda. Other significant exposures close to 50% of total US capacity include methanol, ethylbenzene (EB), styrene and low density polyethylene (LDPE). Upstream, an estimated 38.56% of current US oil production and 48.77% of US natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in as of Wednesday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). OIL AND GASHurricane Francine caused liquefied natural gas (LNG) loadings to drop 22% this week. If disruptions to LNG loadings last long enough, it could cause an increase in domestic gas supplies, which could cause prices to fall. That, in turn could lead to a decline in prices for ethane, the predominant feedstock that US crackers use to produce ethylene. The ports of Cameron and Lake Charles in Louisiana remained closed, according to the US Coast Guard. That halted access to the Cameron LNG plant and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG. The Sabine channel near US Sabine Pass LNG, however, was open, though no cargoes have departed the plant since 10 September. Oil future prices rose by more than a dollar in late morning trading. LOGISTICSThe New Orleans Public Belt Railroad said on Thursday that it will resume operations at 14:00 local time (19:00 GMT) following damage assessments. The Port of New Orleans has shut down, and railroad companies warned customers of delays as traffic will be diverted following the port's flood-gate closure. BNSF has issued a temporary permit embargo affecting all traffic originating or destined to move through the area. STORM UPDATEFrancine has weakened into a tropical depression, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 35 miles/h (55km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The following map shows Francine's projected path. Source: National Hurricane Center Earlier, the storm made landfall on Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained wind speeds of about 100 miles/h, according to the NHC. Additional reporting by Emily Burleson, Bryan Campbell and Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows Francine. Image by National Hurricane Center Track the latest updates on Hurricane Francine and its impact on chemicals on the Topic Page: Storm Season 2024.

12-Sep-2024