Phosphate fertilizers prices, markets & analysis

Updated to Q3 2017

The phosphates market globally is expected to pick up in the third quarter of the year following months of lacklustre demand.

East of Suez, the Indian phosphates market is predicted to be active in the third quarter. Following the settlement of the phosphoric acid contracts at a $23/tonne decrease for the second half of the year and the reduction of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) on finished fertilizers to 5%, farmers are expected to make steady DAP/NPK purchases as inventories continue to be high. Also, Pakistan and Bangladesh are expected to be active in the coming months.

Another region that is expected to be healthy in Q3 is the US, as domestic demand for summer fill barges kicks in. DAP/MAP prices have been sliding recently due to a lack of liquidity, but there are expectations that buyers will return to the market soon.

In Brazil, MAP prices have been edging downwards recently due to a lack of demand, fluctuations in the currency because of political instability and high competition from China. Demand is expected to be strong though for the summer soybean season.

However, market players are worried about over-supply towards the end of the year as both new plants by OCP and Ma’aden will have come onstream and that is bound to put pressure on prices globally.