Ethyl acetate (ETAC) & butyl acetate (BUTAC)

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul remains at a standstill from the floods, with Thai petrochemicals major Indorama’s subsidiary in the country also suspending operations at its Triunfo facilities, a spokesperson confirmed to ICIS. Two main ports in Brazil’s southernmost state remain closed, while fertilizers players have said demand is likely to be hit on the back of a reduced planting season. A spokesperson for Indorama said the company had suspended operations at Triunfo on 3 May until further notice. Indorama's operations in Brazil are the result from its acquisition of Oxiteno and operates at Triunfo a methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) plant with a production capacity of 42,000 tonnes/year and a butene-2 plant with capacity at 42,000 tonnes/year, according to ICIS Supply & Demand. “Initially, we ensured that the emergency shutdown was carried out safely. Currently, we are carefully assessing the weather and logistical conditions, as well as the guidance from the relevant authorities, to determine the short, medium and long-term impacts [of the suspension],” said the Indorama spokesperson. Earlier in the week, Brazil’s polymers producer Braskem and styrenics producer Innova declared force majeure from its operations in Triunfo, as did styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) producer Arlanxeo. Official figures on Friday put the dead toll at 116, with more than 130 people still unaccounted for, while more than 100,000 remain displaced from their homes and nearly two million people in the 12-million-strong state are being affected by Brazil’s worst floods in nearly a century. To make matters worse, rains returned to Rio Grande do Sul by the latter part of the week, forcing authorities to suspend some rescue operations. Brazilians this week have kicked off a remarkable national mobilization to help alleviate the disruption gauchos – as citizens from Rio do Grande do Sul are known in Portuguese – are going through. From workplaces to residential buildings, from civil associations to companies, there is practically no place in the country where an effort to collect goods, food and money is not being deployed. PORTS CLOSED, AGRICULTURE HITThe Port Authority for Rio Grande do Sul, called Portos RS and which oversees operations at the Port of Rio Grande, Port of Pelotas and Port of Porto Alegre, said operations at the two latter facilities remain shut to traffic. The Port of Rio Grande is operating normally, it added. “[Portos RS] maintains operations at the Port of Porto Alegre suspended, due to the maintenance of the level of Lake Guaiba above the so-called flood level. At the Port of Pelotas, in the south of the state, the shipment of wood logs remains suspended and activities are paralyzed at the terminal,” the Authority said. “Regarding the crossing to Sao Jose do Norte [a city north of Porto Alegre], the vehicle and passenger transport service is suspended due to the high level of Laguna dos Patos.” This week, several fertilizers players said to ICIS demand is likely to be hit as planting for some crops which had just started is likely to be delayed, postpone, or cancelled. Moreover, seeds recently planted could also get damaged by high levels of moisture, potentially ruining their harvest. “There has been great damage to infrastructure in the state, with fertilizers mixers underwater and authorities still calculating the impacts,” said an urea trader. “The rice harvest is almost done, but wheat planting is in its early days and producers of urea believe demand destruction can happen due to the circumstances.” Another fertilizers source added that around 70% of soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul had already been harvested, but there is still 30% to be harvested which would now be at risk. It added that 30% would represent approximately 6.5 million tonnes of soybeans, or 5% of Brazil’s total production. Rio Grande do Sul is the main rice producer in Brazil, and the source said the harvest for that crop was already behind schedule when the rains started, with 78% harvested. “We estimate that the unharvested volume should significantly affect the supply of rice in Brazil, increasing the upward pressure on prices, “the source said. “Corn was also in the process of being harvested, with an estimated 83% harvested by the time the rains started. It is not possible yet to estimate precisely how much of this amount at risk has been lost.” Front page picture: Voluntaries working in Rio Grande do Sul organizing donations Source: Government of Rio Grande do Sul Additional reporting by Bruno Menini, Deepika Thapliyal and Chris Vlachopoulos

10-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global average rates for shipping containers rose for the first time since January, workers at freight rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike, and the US regulator that oversees railroads finalized a rule allowing reciprocal switching, highlighting this week’s logistics roundup. CONTAINER RATES Shipping container rates have been rising steadily since December when attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in the Red Sea forced carriers to take the longer route around the tip of the African continent before leveling off last week. This week, the global average for 40-foot shipping containers rose by 1%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Shanghai to the US East Coast edged slightly higher, but rates from China to the West Coast edged slightly lower, as shown in the following chart. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said that the overall container market has settled into a new routine that avoids the Red Sea. “Though significant backlogs, congestion and equipment shortages seen during the first few weeks of the crisis have dissipated, adjustments have resulted in some moderate but ongoing disruptions,” Levine said in a weekly update. He said that even after falling drastically since the beginning of the year, prices remain well above normal and are likely to increase relative to this new floor as demand is set to increase for peak season. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID CHEMICAL TANKERS US liquid chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were unchanged this week. From the US Gulf (USG) to Asia, the market has been quieter this week as a holiday-shortened week has sidelined some key players. There have been only a few parcels quoted, which is placing downward pressure on freight rates for smaller lots. Larger base cargoes of monoethylene glycol (MEG), methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), and methanol have been popular chemicals on this route, keeping larger freight rates steady. From the USG to India, the market has been very quiet. PORT OF BALTIMORE Since the opening of a fourth channel into the Port of Baltimore, 171 commercial vessels have transited the waterway, including five of the vessels that were trapped inside the port after the containership Dali struck the Key Bridge, causing it to collapse, according to the Unified Command (UC). The MSC Passion III entered the port on 29 April, according to vesselfinder.com, making it the first container ship to enter the port since the accident. The closing of the port did not have a significant impact on the chemicals industry as chemicals make up only about 4% of total tonnage that moves through the port, according to data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The ACC said less than 1% of all chemicals involved in waterborne commerce, both domestic and trade volumes, pass through Baltimore. But a market participant in Ohio told ICIS previously that it is seeing delays in delivery times for imports as vessels originally destined to offload in Baltimore are getting re-routed to other ports. PANAMA CANAL Wait times for non-booked vessels ready for transit edged for higher both directions this week, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) vessel tracker and as shown in the following image. Wait times a week ago were 2.5 days for northbound traffic and 5.6 for southbound traffic. The PCA will increase the number of slots available for Panamax vessels to transit the waterway beginning 16 May and will add another slot for Neopanamax vessels on 1 June based on the present and projected water levels in Gatun Lake. RAILROADS Workers at freight rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike. A first work stoppage could occur as early as 22 May, if no new collective agreements are reached by then, officials at labor union Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) said in a televised announcement on 1 May. The rail carriers warned that a work stoppage would disrupt supply chains throughout North America and constrain trade between Canada and the US and Mexico. The two railroads account for the bulk of freight rail traffic in Canada. Meanwhile, chemical industry participants were largely supportive of a final rule adopted by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) on reciprocal switching for inadequate service by railroads, but think the scope was too narrow and it does not cover a significant portion of rail traffic. For the first time, the STB said it is requiring that three service metrics be maintained on a standardized basis across all Class 1 railroads. In the US, chemical railcar loadings represent about 20% of chemical transportation by tonnage, with trucks, barges and pipelines carrying the rest. In Canada, chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. Rail is also the predominant shipping method for US ethanol. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Stefan Baumgarten Please see the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

03-May-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazilian chemicals producers are lobbying hard for an increase in import tariffs for key polymers and petrochemicals from 12.6% to 20%, and higher in cases, hoping the hike could slow down the influx of cheap imports, which have put them against the wall. For some products, Brazil’s chemicals trade group Abiquim, which represents producers, has made official requests for the import tariffs to go up to a hefty 35%, from 9% in some cases. On Tuesday, Abiquim said several of its member companies “are already talking about hibernating plants” due to unprofitable economics. It did so after it published another set of somber statistics for the first quarter, when imports continued entering Brazil em masse. Brazil’s government Chamber of Foreign Commerce (Camex) is concluding on Tuesday a public consultation about this, with its decision expected in coming weeks. Abiquim has been busy with the public consultation: it has made as many as 66 proposals for import tariffs to be hiked for several petrochemicals and fertilizers, including widely used polymers such polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polystyrene (PS), or expandable PS (EPS), to mention just a few. Other chemicals trade groups, as well as companies, have also filed requests for import tariffs to be increased. In total, 110 import tariffs. HARD TO FIGHT OFFBrazil has always depended on imports to cover its internal chemicals demand, but the extraordinary low prices coming from competitors abroad has made Brazil’s chemicals plant to run with operating rates of 65% or lower. More and more, the country’s chemicals facilities are becoming white elephants which are far from their potential, as customers find in imported product more competitive pricing. Considering this dire situation and taking into account that the current government in Brasilia led by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may be more receptive to their demands, Abiquim has put a good fight in publica and private for measure which could shore up chemical producers’ competitiveness. This could come after the government already hiked import tariffs on several products in 2023 and re-introduced a tax break, called REIQ, for some chemicals which had been withdrawn by the previous Administration. While Brazil’s chemicals production competitiveness is mostly affected by higher input costs, with natural gas costs on average five times higher than in the US, the industry is hopeful a helping hand from the government in the form of higher import tariffs could slow down the flow of imports into Brazil. As a ‘price taker region’ given its dependence on imports, Latin American domestic producers have taken a hit in the past two years. In Brazil, polymers major Braskem is Abiquim’s commanding voice. Abiquim, obviously, has always been very outspoken – even apocalyptic – about the fate of its members as they try to compete with overseas countries, namely China who has been sending abroad product at below cost of production. The priorities in China’s dictatorial system are not related to the balance of markets, but to keep employment levels stable so its citizens find fewer excuses to protest against the regime which keeps them oppressed. Capitalist market dynamics are for the rest of the world to balance; in China’s dictatorial, controlled-economy regime the priority is to make people feel the regime’s legitimacy can come from never-ending economic growth. The results of such a policy for the rest of the world – not just in chemicals but in all industrial goods – is becoming clear: unprofitable industries which cannot really compete with heavily subsidized Chinese players. The results of such a policy in China are yet to be seen, but subsiding at all costs any industry which creates employment may have debt-related lasting consequences: as they mantra goes, “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” Abiquim’s executive president urged Lula’s cabinet to look north, to the US, where the government has imposed hefty tariffs on almost all China-produced industrial goods or raw materials for manufacturing production. “[The hikes in import tariffs] have improved the US’ scenario: despite the aggressive advance in exports by Asian countries, the drop in US [chemicals] production in 2023 was of 1%, while in Brazil the index for production fell nearly by 10%,” said Andre Passos. “The country adopted an increase in import taxes of over 30% to defend its market from unfair competition. The taxation for some inputs, such as phenol, resins and adipic [acid], for example, exceeds three digits. “Here, we are suggesting an increase in rates to 20% in most claims … We need to have this breathing space for the industry to recover,” he concluded. As such, the figures for the first quarter showed no sign of imports into Brazil slowing down. The country posted a trade deficit $9.9 billion during the January-March period; the 12-month accumulated (April 2023 to March 2024) deficit stood at $44.7 billion. A record high of 61.2 million tonnes of chemicals products entered Brazil in Q1; in turn, the country’s industry exported 14.6 million tonnes. Abiquim proposals for higher import tariffs Product Current import tariff Proposed tariff Expandable polystyrene, unfilled, in primary form 12.6% 20% Other polystyrenes in primary forms 12.6% 20% Carboxymethylcellulose with content > =75%, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other polyurethanes in liquids and pastes 12.6% 20% Phthalic anhydride 10.8% 20%  Sodium hydrogen carbonate (bicarbonate) 9% 35% Copolymers of ethylene and alpha-olefin, with a density of less than 0.94 12.6% 20% Other orthophthalic acid esters 11% 20% Other styrene polymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other silicon dioxides 0% 18% Other polyesters in liquids and pastes  12.6% 20% Commercial ammonium carbonates and other ammonium carbonates 9% 18% Other unsaturated polyethers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Polyethylene terephthalate, with a viscosity index of 78 ml/g or more 12.6% 20% Phosphoric acid with an iron content of less than 750 ppm 9% 18% Dinonyl or didecyl orthophthalates 11% 20% Poly(vinyl chloride), not mixed with other substances, obtained by suspension process 12.6% 20% Poly(vinyl chloride), not mixed with other substances, obtained by emulsion process 12.6% 20% Methyl polymethacrylate, in primary form  12.6% 20% White mineral oils (vaseline or paraffin oils) 4% 35% Other polyetherpolyols, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other unfilled epoxy resins in primary forms 12.6% 20% Silicon dioxide obtained by chemical precipitation 9% 18% Acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber in plates, sheets, etc 11% 35% Other organic anionic surface agents, whether or not put up for retail sale, not classified under previous codes 12.6% 23% Phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts 7% 20% Fumaric acid, its salts and esters 10 ,8% 20% Plasticizers and plastics 10 ,8% 20% Maleic anhydride 10 ,8% 20% Adipic acid salts and esters 10 ,8% 20% Propylene copolymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Adipic acid 9% 20% Unfilled polypropylene, in primary form 12.6% 20% Filled polypropylene, in primary form 12.6% 20% Methacrylic acid methyl esters 10 ,8% 20% Other ethylene polymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Acrylic acid 2-ethylhexyl esters 0% 20% 2-Ethylexanoic acid (2-ethylexoic acid) 10. 8% 20% Other copolymers of ethylene and vinyl acetate, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other unfilled polyethylenes, density >= 0.94, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, unfilled 12.6% 20% Other saturated acyclic monoalcohol acetates, c atom <= 8 10. 8% 20% Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, with filler 12.6% 20% Triacetin 10. 8% 20% Sodium methylate in methanol 12.6% 20% Stearic alcohol (industrial fatty alcohol) 12.6% 20% N-butyl acetate                              11% 20% Stearic acid (industrial monocarboxylic fatty acid) 5% 35% Alkylbenzene mixtures 11% 20% Organic, non-ionic surface agents 12.6% 23% Ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution 0.0% 15% Monoethanolamine and its salts 12.6% 20% Isobutyl alcohol (2-methyl-1-propanol) 10.8% 20% Butan-1-ol (n-butyl alcohol) 10.8% 20% Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), food grade as established by the Food Chemical Codex, in primary forms 10.8% 22% Styrene                                9% 18% Hexamethylenediamine and its salts 10.8% 20% Latex from other synthetic or artificial rubbers 10.8% 35% Propylene glycol (propane-1, 2-diol) 10.8% 20% Preparations 12.6% 20% Linear alkylbenzene sulfonic acids and their salts 12.6% 23% 4,4'-Isopropylidenediphenol (bisphenol A, diphenylolpropane) and its salts 10.8% 20% Dipropylene glycol 12.6% 20% Butanone (methyl ethyl ketone) 10.8% 20% Ethyl acetate                                 10.8% 20% Methyl-, ethyl- and propylcellulose, hydroxylated 0.0% 20% Front page picture: Chemical production facilities outside Sao Paulo  Source: Union of Chemical and Petrochemical industries in the state of Sao Paulo (Sinproquim) Focus article by Jonathan Lopez Additional information by Thais Matsuda and Bruno Menini

30-Apr-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 26 April 2024. Thailand's SCG Q1 net profit slumps 85%; eyes better H2 conditions By Nurluqman Suratman 26-Apr-24 12:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Siam Cement Group (SCG) posted an 85% year-on-year decline in Q1 net profit on losses from chemicals operations, but the Thai conglomerate expects the segment’s earnings to recover in H2 on improved olefins demand and expected restart of its Vietnam petrochemical complex. China VAM exports jump; shipments to India surge in Q2 By Hwee Hwee Tan 25-Apr-24 13:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) spot offers have tumbled, boosting buying interest in its outbound cargoes, and lifting its exports to India to a multi-month high into the second quarter. SE Asia PE May offers mostly rangebound; demand still weak By Izham Ahmad 24-Apr-24 14:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Initial spot import offers for May shipments of polyethylene (PE) in southeast Asia were announced mostly rangebound so far in the week, while buying interest remained under pressure near recent lows. Saudi Aramco eyes stake in Hengli Petrochemical; prowls for more China investments By Fanny Zhang 23-Apr-24 14:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco continues its quest for downstream petrochemical investments in the world’s second-biggest economy, adding Hengli Petrochemical in a list of target companies in which the global energy giant intends to acquire a strategic stake. PODCAST: Production constraints keep Asian BD spot trades buoyant in Q1, demand outlook mixed By Damini Dabholkar 22-Apr-24 17:35 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Persistent production constraints have driven Asia’s spot prices for butadiene (BD) to near two-year-high levels, but how the rally goes from here may hinge on downstream demand conditions. CHINAPLAS ’24: PODCAST: China PP exports strong, imports weak in Q1 By Sijia Li 22-Apr-24 16:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analyst Sijia Li and senior industry analyst Joanne Wang discuss developments in China's polyolefins market.

29-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 15 March. US CPI inflation 'sticky' at 3.2%, may delay Fed rate cuts – ICIS economist US inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose 0.4% month on month in February, leaving it up 3.2% year on year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. LyondellBasell sees signs of modest improvement in Q1 – CEO LyondellBasell is seeing some indications of modest improvement in its businesses, particularly in North America and Europe, with packaging being the strongest end market, its CEO said on Wednesday. US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. INSIGHT: US aromatics, refining output recedes as peak oil approaches Peak oil demand in the US could lead to a further decline in refining capacity, which will tighten supplies of benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) for downstream chemical producers. Unipar expects hardship in Argentina but Brazil PVC demand should recover Unipar’s operations in Argentina are set to face pressure from the current recession but a bright spot could appear in higher civil engineering activity in Brazil, propping up demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday.

18-Mar-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 March. Europe ethylene and propylene sentiment cautiously optimistic for remainder of H1 Given the better-than-expected demand conditions, with improved sales volumes and higher prices lifting many out of the mire that was 2023, the question on everyone’s lips is how long can we expect this state of affairs to last. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Surging PET bottle bale prices threaten to ‘destroy’ Europe’s R-PET market Feedstock bale prices hit €930/tonne ex-works in Poland on Monday, prompting recycled PET participants to suggest such price levels threaten to destroy the R-PET market as they fear a repeat of 2022’s disastrous price volatility. Europe acetic acid, VAM contract talks for March focus on supply disruption March negotiations are underway for European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) contract pricing with security of supply a key influence on negotiations amid LyondellBasell’s force majeure in the US and other disruptions to global trade flows. Caution caps optimism as peak season arrives for Europe styrene market Spot activity in the Europe styrene market was moderate in the week ended 8 March, as players attended a key industry event, while cautious and conservative sentiment persisted alongside crosswinds from ongoing demand weakness and thin liquidity, high feedstock costs and reduced availability. Participants pointed to only slight improvements in demand and market optimism from levels seen in 2023. Europe cracker margins up on firmer ethylene, co-products pricing Cracker margins in Europe rose in the week on the back of firmer ethylene and co-product pricing, ICIS Margin Analysis showed on Monday.

18-Mar-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 March 2024. INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Mar-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. INSIGHT: Policies announced in China Two Sessions will impact domestic petchems market in 2024 By Jimmy Zhang 14-Mar-24 23:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Two Sessions earlier this month – the yearly meetings where its legislature sets laws and its advisory body offers policy recommendations – attracted attention from the market for the growth targets set and announcements on expected future economic development. According to Premier Li Qiang, China's GDP growth target is “around 5.0%”. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Mar-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Asia caustic soda market could be underpinned by snug supply, limited vessel space By Jonathan Chou 13-Mar-24 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's liquid caustic soda spot supply may remain snug in the near term, while demand could continue its gradual growth into the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. PODCAST: China Group III base oils market sees supply, demand changes By Whitney Shi 12-Mar-24 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS Senior Industry Analyst Whitney Shi and ICIS Assistant Industry Analyst Jady Ma talk about supply and demand changes in China’s Group III base oils market. Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Mar-24 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins.

18-Mar-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–While Indorama Ventures reviews six sites for possible closure, it will consider signs that oil demand will continue growing in emerging Asia while peaking in Europe and North America – a trend that would alter the regional costs of a principal polyester feedstock, making it more attractive to import it from Asia than make it in the West. Benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) are produced in refineries, and they are among the fundamental building blocks for the chemical industry. If oil demand peaks in the West, that would discourage refiners from expanding capacity or making the expensive investments needed to maintain existing production levels. That would tighten supplies for these building blocks, affecting costs for chemicals as varies as phenol, styrene and paraxylene (PX). By contrast, oil demand has yet to peak among emerging economies in Asia. There, refiners will continue to increase capacity to meet growing demand for diesel and gasoline. Supplies of aromatics should continue growing in those regions. Indorama is taking the prospect of peak oil seriously because a key polyester feedstock, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), is made from PX, and PX is extracted from MX. If Western PTA prices become too expensive, then it would make more sense for Indorama to shut down its high-cost plants in the West and purchase the feedstock from producers in Asia that can sell material at a lower price. Indorama did not specify which plants it could close. PEAK OIL IN WEST SPELLS END OF NEW REFINERIESIndorama expects oil demand in the West will soon peak, perhaps in 2025 or 2026, said Aloke Lohia, Group CEO of Indorama. He made his comments in an interview with ICIS. His comments are backed by statistics from the Energy Information (EIA). Outside of the post-COVID rebound in 2021, gasoline demand in the US has been running below pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, it reached a summertime peak of nearly 9.60 million bbl/day. That is more in line with summer levels in 2015. Given the outlook for oil demand in the West, Indorama is betting that refiners will unlikely make the pricey investments necessary to increase capacity. "No one is looking to build a new refinery," Lohia said. Refiners could even shirk from making the investments needed to maintain existing capacity. "We believe there will be de-growth in refineries in the West and hence high cost for crude oil derivatives that has hurt our competitiveness, especially in Europe," Lohia said in prepared remarks. Actions by refiners are bearing this out. LyondellBasell plans to shut down its Houston refinery because it cannot justify the capital expenditures needed to keep the 100+ year old complex running. Although ExxonMobil recently expanded its refinery in Beaumont, Texas, the last time a refiner made a comparable investment was in 2012, when Motiva expanded its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. Several refiners have converted existing units to process vegetable oils and similar feedstock to produce renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). LyondellBasell could convert its Houston refinery into a sustainability hub. OIL DEMAND TO CONTINUE GROWING IN EMERGING ASIAUnlike the West, Indorama expects oil demand to continue growing in emerging Asia. Governments in this part of the world have less aggressive schedules for reducing carbon emissions, with net-zero goals further out in the future, Lohia said. Reducing carbon emissions boils down to renewable electricity. Instead of producing power by burning coal and natural gas, countries would do so with renewable sources such as solar panels, wind turbines and hydropower. Renewable electricity could also be used to generate heat. Emerging economies have limited power production, and they want to use that electricity to rapidly industrialize, according to Indorama. De-carbonization and industrialization will compete for limited power generation. That will place a limit on the expansion of charging stations needed for electric vehicles (EVs). Until emerging markets build out electrical infrastructure, they will still need petroleum-based fuels. Consequently, emerging markets are giving themselves more time to reduce carbon emissions. In China in particular, some companies could rush to complete new expansion projects before decarbonization deadlines take effect, Lohia said. China already has too much capacity, so this building spree will worsen the supply glut. As it stands, crude oil processing in China reached 14.8 million bbl/day in 2023, an all-time high, according to the EIA. Growing refining capacity should increase supplies of aromatics such as PX, the feedstock used to make purified terephthalic acid (PTA). That should depress PTA production costs. INDORAMA'S PLANGiven the global outlook for chemical feedstock produced at refineries, Indorama is considering a plan that would reduce consumption of these feedstocks at its Western operations. Instead of producing feedstock at high-cost plants, Indorama would import the material from Asia. Production lost from any closures would be offset by increasing utilization rates at Indorama's low-cost plants. The move would significantly increase Indorama's overall operating rates and lead to double-digit returns on capital employed (ROCE) for the two businesses most exposed to MX, Combined PET (CPET) and Fibers. US SHALE MAY SPARE DOMESTIC PLANTSThe calculus is less straightforward for Indorama's US operations. Critically, these operations include methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), an octane-boosting gasoline blendstock that is made with methanol and isobutylene. In the US, both of these chemicals are made from shale-based feedstock, giving Indorama a substantial cost advantage. When gasoline prices rise, Indorama's MTBE operations can earn the company very attractive margins. Those fat MTBE margins would offset the higher costs involved with producing PTA from PX extracted from MX. MX is another octane-boosting blendstock, so its price tends to rise and fall with that for gasoline. In effect, MTBE provides Indorama with a hedge against higher MX costs for its US PET operations. MX is not the only feedstock used to make PET. The other is monoethylene glycol (MEG), a chemical made from ethylene. US ethylene producers predominantly on ethane as a feedstock, giving them a cost advantage. For Indorama's PET operations in the US, shale gas gives the company a cost advantage on the MEG side and a hedge on the PTA side. Thumbnail shows bottle made of PET. Image by monticello/imageBROKER/Shutterstock Insight article by Al Greenwood

05-Mar-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Fundamental long-term changes in global chemicals markets have prompted a significant review of strategy, Indorama Ventures said on Monday. The company suffered a heavy loss in 2023 against the backdrop of oversupplied markets and weak demand. Supply side pressure and weaker demand in China are among the factors that have created unprecedented industry conditions it said. It is shifting strategy to right-size operations, deleverage its business and cut costs. The company reported a 53% drop in earnings for 2023 as revenues fell by 17%, with fourth quarter EBIDTA down 46% on 8% lower sales. A net loss for the year of $310 million (from a profit of $884 million in 2022) included an asset impairment on an incomplete plant in Texas. The company said that it plans to reduce net debt by $2.5 billion to around $4.3 billion in 2026. This includes generating $800 million in cashflow from “operational improvements” and a further $1.7 billion from actions including divestments, “asset actions” and “select business listing”. The aim is to reduce its debt to EBITDA (earnings before, interest, tax, deprecation and amortisation) ratio to less than 3X. An asset optimization program is targeted at lifting the company’s operating rate from 74% to 89%, it said. This will include “moving to lower-cost facilities and right sizing manufacturing capacity”, it added. A further $450 million run rate of efficiency gains is planned to be in action by 2026. The sale of non-core assets and other “value unlocking strategies” aims to generate about $1.3 billion in cash proceeds. Indorama Ventures said that by leveraging sustainability innovation it can create an additional $350 million/year of value. Under the revised strategy the company’s Integrated Oxides and Derivative (IOD) business segment will be renamed Indovinya. Intermediate chemicals assets, including integrated purified ethylene oxide (PEO), ethylene glycol (EG) and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) assets will move to Indorama Ventures’ Combined PET (CPET) segment. Indovinya will focus on downstream products and for Indorama Ventures markets will include home & personal care, crop solutions, coatings & solutions and energy & resources, it said. A run rate of $527 million in efficiency gains was achieved in 2023 and the roll out of a new enterprise management system in 2024 will unlock further value, it added. A $308 million non-cash impairment was taken in Q4 2023 it said on the suspension of activity on the partially completed purified terephthalic acid (PTA)-polyethylene terephthalate (PET) joint venture with Alpek in Corpus Christi, Texas.

04-Mar-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 1 March 2024. Asian spot TiO2 market set to enjoy support in March By Joson Ng 01-Mar-24 13:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The titanium dioxide (TiO2) Asian spot market is likely to see improving or stable demand in March, especially in China, as the traditional peak demand season kicks in. As producers in China are also citing a healthy number of orders on hand, they are not likely to allow cargoes to go unless the bids are close to their valuation. Korea’s S-Oil targets $2bn capex for Ulsan oil-to-chems project in '24 By Pearl Bantillo 29-Feb-24 12:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean refiner S-Oil has earmarked won (W) 2.72tr ($2bn) this year for its thermal crude-to-chemical (TC2C) project called Shaheen, representing 87% of the total capital expenditure (capex) set for 2024. VIDEO: China VAM market remains firm post-holiday on tighter spot supply By Joanne Wang 29-Feb-24 11:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)– ICIS senior industry analyst Joanne Wang reviews the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market in China in early 2024 and shares a brief market outlook. Japan January inflation at 2.0%; end to negative interest rates in sight By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Feb-24 14:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's core consumer inflation in January rose by 2.0%, matching the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) price stability target and supporting expectations that the central bank will end its ultra-low interest rates policy by April. Asia oxo-alcohols find support in post-holiday market on tight supply By Julia Tan 26-Feb-24 12:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s spot oxo-alcohols import markets saw quiet trade in the post-holiday period, with limited buying interest from northeast Asian buyers as most opted to assume a wait-and-see stance. Buyers are generally only expected to begin procurement activity following the Lantern Festival, which took place on 24 February. Asia BD spot market buoyant with active China exports By Ai Teng Lim 23-Feb-24 10:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Discussions for Asian butadiene (BD) imports picked up this week as China embarked on active export sales.

04-Mar-2024