Chemicals

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–While the US-led trade war has roiled Asia’s petrochemicals market, sending prices of some on free fall, a selected few products have bucked the trend due to rising feedstock cost and tightening supply, but the support may be temporary amid global economic headwinds. Oxo-alcohols to lead April price gains in April – ICIS forecast Trade war weighs on demand, economic growth China warns countries against striking US trade deals at its expense Spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were tracking gains in feedstock propane as production in China is being curtailed by high cost. About a third of China’s propylene production is produced via the propane dehydrogenation (PDH) route, but imports of feedstock propane from the US are now subject to hefty tariffs amid the renewed US-China trade war. Meanwhile, spot prices of oxo-alcohols such as 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH), dioctyl phthalate (DOP), and n-butanol (NBA) have risen as constrained production tightened supply. Supply-side pressures have allowed them to outperform despite weakness in the broader market. For epichlorohydrin (ECH), prices were largely stable, supported by limited availability, with plants in northeast Asia running at below 50% of capacity. Meanwhile, restocking was taking place in China ahead of the week-long Labor Day holiday in early May. ECH is a chemical intermediate used in the production of synthetic rubbers, resins, and pharmaceuticals, among other industrial uses. Downstream epoxy resins prices are also stable amid restocking following price falls in March. In the fatty alcohol mid-cut market, prices are rising on tightened supply and elevated cost of feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) in Indonesia. Two regional plants – one in Malaysia and another in Indonesia – are currently shut for scheduled maintenance, while another plant in Malaysia remains shut due to an unplanned outage in early April. The Malaysian plant was shut at the start of the month due to a fire incident. Generally, demand has remained soft as buyers adopt a risk-mitigation strategy to better navigate the uncertain market, ICIS analyst Ann Sun said. The majority of chemical prices are forecast to decline in tandem with falling oil prices, weighed down by recessionary fears, Sun added. Amid uncertainties surrounding markets, traders – notably those in China – are searching for alternative paths away from the US towards regions with lower tariffs such as southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Some US goods bound for China are also being re-routed to other countries like India amid high tariffs. OUTLOOK The volume of world trade is expected to fall by as much as 1.5% if US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are back on the menu after a 90-day suspension lapses, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Meanwhile, the US and China appears to be on an all-out trade war, having imposed tariffs exceeding 100% on each other. Export front-loading is taking place globally as markets seek to avoid further complications wrought by future tariff announcements by the US. But not all countries have posted export growth. South Korean exports fell in the first 20 days of April by 5.2% year on year – the first signs that US tariffs are beginning to hit global trade hard, said Min Joo Kang, senior economist for South Korea and Japan at Dutch financial institution ING. In southeast Asia, Malaysia’s gross exports in March grew by 6.8% year on year, led by front-loading ahead of Eid ul Fitr festival, Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economists said in a note on 21 April. Eid ul Fitr marks the end of Ramadan, the Muslim fasting month. But UOB predicted a dimmer external trade outlook ahead for Malaysia, depending on how tariff negotiations with the US pan out. Malaysia, along with other ASEAN member nations such as Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, is sending a trade delegation to the US on 24 April. The southeast Asian country was slapped with 24% tariffs by Trump on 2 April prior to the levies’ 90-day suspension. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.4% year on year between January-March amid worries of lower growth outlook for 2025. Markets in southeast Asia, which were some of the hardest-hit by Trump’s tariffs, are anxiously waiting for the results of trade negotiations with the US before the 90-day suspension is up in July. Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged southeast Asian governments to unite against “unilateralism” during his recent tour of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. Separately, China warned countries against striking deals with the US at its expense, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said on 21 April. “Sacrificing others’ interests to obtain so-called exemptions for temporary selfish gains is akin to negotiating with a tiger; it ultimately leads to failure for both parties and harms everyone involved,” it said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Matthew Chong, Izham Ahmad, Claire Gao, Helen Yan, Josh Quah, Aswin Kondapally and Julia Tan Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

23-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecasts for China, India and other developing Asian economies following latest escalation in US-led trade war. For China, the forecast growth was revised down to 4.0% from 4.6% previously, representing a sharp deceleration from the pace of expansion in 2024, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on 22 April. Last year, the world’s second-biggest economy expanded by 5.0%, in line with the Chinese government’s target. "This reflects the impact of recently implemented tariffs, which offset the stronger carryover from 2024 (as a result of a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter) and fiscal expansion in the budget," the IMF said. China's growth in 2026 was also revised down to 4.0% from 4.5% previously "the back of prolonged trade policy uncertainty and the tariffs now in place". India’s GDP growth this year is also expected to come in lower, at 6.2%, down from the previous forecast of 6.5%, on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty, the IMF said. The south Asian giant’s 2025 growth, nonetheless, remains comparatively higher than the rest of the region, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, it added. For emerging and developing Asia, growth is expected to decline further to 4.5% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, after a marked slowdown in 2024. "Emerging and developing Asia, particularly Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, has been among the most affected by the April tariffs," the IMF said. Growth for the ASEAN-5 – which consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand – for 2025 was revised down to 4.0% from 4.6% previously. In the near term – under a reference forecast which includes tariff announcements between 1 February and 4 April by the US and countermeasures by other countries – global growth is projected to slow down to 2.8% in 2025 (from 3.3% in 2024) before accelerating to 3.0% in 2026. "Risks to the global economy have increased, and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. Risks to the global economy have increased, and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth, he said. "Growth prospects could, however, immediately improve if countries ease their current trade policy stance and forge new trade agreements. "Addressing domestic imbalances can, over a period of years, offset economic risks and raise global output while contributing significantly to closing external imbalances…It also means boosting support for domestic demand in China, and stepping up fiscal consolidation in the United States," Gourinchas said. Thumbnail image shows IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaking at a press briefing (Source: Xinhua/Shutterstock) Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

23-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ascend Performance Materials was already reeling from overcapacity in China and an industrial recession when its main complex caught on fire and a freeze shut down its operations in Texas – events that contributed to the bankruptcy of the nylon 6,6 producer. Ascend Performance Materials filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 on Monday. The filing will allow Ascend to continue operations and protect it from creditor lawsuits while it reorganizes its finances. Ascend already has support from its lenders, and it expects to emerge from bankruptcy protection in six months. NYLON MARKET ALREADY STRUGGLING WITH OVERCAPACITYJohn Rogers, an analyst at Moody’s Ratings, noted how the entrance of China caused fundamental changes to the nylon market. “The issue for Ascend was the increased capacity in China by established western producers and domestic companies along with the ability of Chinese producers to now produce [adiponitrile] and [hexamethylene diamine], two key intermediates that have sustained Ascend’s margins during prior downturns.” Over the past six years, Chinese production capacity for chemical intermediates has grown by 93%, and downstream production by 64%, said Robert Del Genio, Ascend's chief restructuring officer. He made his comments in court documents. Many of these new market entrants from China sought to gain market share by selling at a cash loss or pursuant to subsidies from the Chinese government, Del Genio said. Ascend was faced with grim choices. It could cut prices or lose customers to these new entrants. Meanwhile, a prolonged recession has struck manufacturing, a key end market for the nylon produced by Ascend. Many of the company's key end markets have been slow to recover to pre-pandemic levels of production because of destocking, inflation, labor shortages and supply-chain issues, Del Genio said. Weak demand has caused prices for nylon 6,6 to fall and Ascend's EBITDA margin to approach its lowest level in almost a decade, Del Genio said. For chemical intermediates, long-term take-or-pay contracts signed when times were good have turned into money losers under these tougher economic conditions. Ascend was forced to sell at a loss under these contracts. CLOSURE OF BARGE CHAMBER ADDS MORE EXPENSESAscend's main inland barge chamber at Wilson Lock had been closed after cracks were discovered in the lock gates in September 2024, Del Genio said. Wilson Lock is the only way that barge shipments can enter and leave the company's operations in Decatur, Alabama, Del Genio said. With Wilson Lock shut down, the Decatur site has had to rely on trucks to ship acrylonitrile (ACN) from Texas and to move adiponitrile (ADN) to Pensacola. "The use of a trucking alternative has had a $4 million impact on the company’s first two quarters of financials in 2025 in addition to significantly increasing transit times," Del Genio said. Trucking also added delays, which left Ascend's Decatur and Pensacola operations vulnerable to disruptions, Del Genio said. To prevent this, Ascend bought ACN and ADN from third parties at a premium, adding an additional $4 million in expenses. FIRE, FREEZE PROVE TOO MUCHIn December 2024, a fire started at Ascend's main nylon complex in Pensacola, Florida, which disrupted operations until the middle of February 2025, Del Genio said. The fire cost Ascend $6 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). About a month after the fire, sub-freezing temperatures hit Texas, where Ascend makes hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and ACN at its complex in Chocolate Bayou, Del Genio said. As a proactive step, Ascend shut down its operations at Chocolate Bayou to prevent mechanical failure and threats to the environment. The shutdown of Chocolate Bayou led to a cascade of side effects. Ascend's operations in Decatur, Alabama, needed the ACN from Chocolate Bayou to continue running, Del Genio said. The shutdown of Chocolate Bayou forced Ascend to buy ACN on the open market so it could keep Decatur running. Those purchases further depleted the company's cash reserves. Overall, the closures of Chocolate Bayou, Pensacola and Wilson Lock lowered Ascends Q1 EBITDA by $21 million, Del Genio said. HEADING TOWARDS BANKRUPTCYIn response to a worsening liquidity crisis, Ascend increased its vendor payment deferrals. By late February, the company's past-due accounts-payable wall exceeded $110 million. Vendors responded by demanding cash in advance, tightening payment terms, threatening to remove rental equipment and freezing supplies of goods and services. The company was approaching a breaking point. Ascend owed money to companies that provided critical goods and services. If these companies cut off Ascend, it could bring the company's plants to a halt. Ascend arranged bridge loan financing that gave the company enough time to file for bankruptcy protection in US District Court, Texas Southern District. The case number is 25-90127. (Thumbnail shows nylon. Image by Shutterstock)

22-Apr-2025

NEW YORK (ICIS)–Plunging US chemical stock prices may already be signaling a recession by year-end 2025, one Wall Street analyst said. “Chemical equities have been a good lead indicator for recessionary periods. History shows us that chemical equities start discounting a recession four to six quarters before it happens, suggesting that this time around, almost on cue, the sector was pointing to a recession by year-end 2025,” said Hassan Ahmed, analyst at Alembic Global Advisors, in a research note. US chemical equities started to decline in earnest in mid-2024 with the selling picking up steam in October 2024 and most recently in April 2025. “Analyzing 60 years’ worth of historical data, what’s different this time around is that the average western chemical equity has dropped 22% year-to-date and is down 54% from its 2022 highs, far exceeding the average 31% decline, peak-to-trough, across all US recessionary periods going back to the 1960s,” he added. This would also suggest the decline is overdone, he noted. Being a leading indicator, chemical equities will fall sharply ahead of a recession, outperform the market during the recession in anticipation of an upturn, and rally strongly – 83% on average – coming out of a recession, the analyst pointed out. In his former role as chief economist of the American Chemistry Council (ACC), ICIS senior economist for Global Chemicals, Kevin Swift, analyzed the US chemical industry as a leading indicator for the US business cycle. Swift allocated around a 10% weighting to US chemical stock performance in the ACC Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB). The economist puts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at 34%. BETTER BALANCE SHEETS“Though some investors fear the emergence of another 2008/2009-type recession, we highlight that today’s western chemical sector is in a far better place, on both a balance sheet and cash flow basis, than during the global financial crisis,” said Ahmed. At the end of 2024, the sector had lower net debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and higher free cash flow, interest coverage ratios, and cash flow coverage ratios of total debt, relative to the end of 2008 when the Global Financial Crisis began, he noted. “Additionally, the sector’s debt maturity profile today is far more spread out than in 2008, with very little debt coming due over the next two years,” said Ahmed. Chemical companies with the best risk/return profile include Celanese, Huntsman, Methanex, Tronox and Westlake, according to the analyst. Chemical stocks down by more than 50% from their 2022 highs to 14 April include Trinseo (-95%), Braskem (-85%), Tronox (-79%), Celanese (-78%), Chemours (-74%), Olin (-69%), Huntsman (-67%), Dow (-59%), Methanex (-52%) and LyondellBasell (-51%). Source: CNBC QUESTIONS ON DIVIDENDSThe selling has accelerated in April amid US tariff announcements. The equity declines have been so pronounced that dividend yields are now around 10.0% for Dow, 9.6% for LyondellBasell and 7.8% for Huntsman. In upcoming Q1 earnings calls, company managements will no doubt field questions about the safety of their dividends, as well as tariff impact. The Alembic Global Advisors analyst does not view dividend safety as a concern, as even in a draconian situation where EBITDA drops to 2020 COVID-19 levels, all companies under coverage with the exception of Dow, Huntsman and LyondellBasell and the industrial gas companies would be able to cover their dividends with cash flow. “We would also highlight that Dow has over $3 billion in cash coming in 2025 from various deals struck and settlements reached so can easily cover their dividend. The remaining five companies could easily tap into the debt markets to raise funds to cover their dividends if the need were to arise,” said Ahmed. (Thumbnail shows stock listings. Image by Shutterstock.)

21-Apr-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 18 April. NEWS Brazil's chemicals production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits 40%Brazil's chemicals industry is facing its worst performance in 30 years, with the producing companies in the sector operating at just 60% of installed capacity during January and February, the country’s trade group Abiquim said. Mexico must do homework on USMCA compliance, set policy to prop up nearshoring – Evonik execMexico breathed a sigh of relief when the US spared it from very punitive tariffs, but the country should not turn complacent and use this as a catalyst to step up compliance with rules of origin clauses contained in the North America free trade deal USMCA, according to the director for Mexico at German chemicals major Evonik. US tariffs spark fears in Chile about even higher industrial goods importsUS import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. INSIGHT: Argentina’s chemicals remain uninvited to the recovery partyArgentina’s chemicals sector remains in the doldrums, with output in the first quarter lower year on year, according to sources, who are increasingly turning pessimistic about manufacturing’s prospects amid the push for economic liberalization. Brazil's inflation rises to 5.5% in March, further tightening expectedBrazil's annual rate of inflation rose to 5.5% in March, year on year, the highest level in more than two years and up from 5.1% in February, the country’s statics office said on Friday. Argentina’s chemicals, plastics output keeps falling but manufacturing, construction upArgentina’s chemicals and plastics output continued falling in February, year on year, but petrochemicals-intensive activity in construction and overall manufacturing rose, according to the country’s statistics office Indec. Argentina’s annual inflation down to 56%; monthly price rises accelerateArgentina’s annual rate of inflation fell in March to 55.9%, down from 65.9% in February, the country’s statistics office said on Friday. Argentina’s IMF bailout confirmed after Milei returns from Washington; tariffs deal more elusiveWhen President Javier Milei of Argentina travelled to Washington last week, most analysts expected him to return with an IMF bailout agreed and ready. On Wednesday, the Fund confirmed a bail out for Argentina for the second time in four years, affirming analyst expectations. PRICINGLatAm PP spot domestic prices lower in Brazil on ample supply, weak demandSpot domestic polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed lower in Brazil on ample supply and weak demand. In other Latin American countries, prices were steady. LatAm PE domestic prices fall in Brazil, Mexico on ample supply, soft demandDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices fell in Brazil and Mexico while being unchanged in other Latin American (LatAm) countries.

21-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 18 April. US tariffs spark fears in Chile about even higher industrial goods imports US import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. INSIGHT: Global chemical prices plunge with oil amid tariffs The tariffs imposed by the US and the uncertainty of what will follow has caused a crash in oil prices and is one of the main factors behind a global decline in chemical prices in the days after the country's April announcement of its reciprocal tariffs. Valero may shut down California refinery in 2026 Valero has submitted notice to the California Energy Commission of its intent to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations at its Benicia Refinery by the end of April 2026, the US refining major said in an update on Wednesday. Brazil's chemicals production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits 40% Brazil's chemicals industry is facing its worst performance in 30 years, with the producing companies in the sector operating at just 60% of installed capacity during January and February, the country’s trade group Abiquim said. INSIGHT: Possible US mineral tariffs threaten chem, refiner catalysts The US is taking steps that could lead to tariffs on imports of up to 50 critical minerals, many of which are used to make catalysts for key processes used by refiners and chemical producers. Canada to keep using retaliatory tariffs, regardless of election outcome Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory tariffs against the US – regardless of which party, the incumbent Liberals or the opposition Conservatives, wins the upcoming 28 April federal election.

21-Apr-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 17 April. Europe PE endures week of tariff chaos, emerges with softer outlookThe European polyethylene (PE) market has suffered a week of tariff-based turmoil, which resulted in a significant shift in market sentiment. Low river Rhine severely restricts chemical shipping, rates riseDry weather conditions are starving the river Rhine of water, restricting its use for chemicals traffic and pushing up shipping rates, with no improvement forecast until later in April. Europe MPG players say seasonal improvement unlikelyEuropean monopropylene glycol (MPG) sellers do not see any respite from tough market conditions as the construction sector is struggling, arbitrage with Asia is wide and US tariffs are creating uncertainties through the value chain. INSIGHT: Europe chems players move to the side lines on tariff upheavalThe market volatility following the intensification of tariff threats has cast a pall over European chemicals sector activity, with players avoiding committing to long-term orders if possible in the face of demand uncertainty and currency volatility.

21-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 18 April 2025. INSIGHT: China SM feedstocks, end-products outlook clouded by US tariffs By Aviva Zhang 17-Apr-25 12:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating US-China trade tensions have driven significant fluctuations in China’s styrene monomer (SM) market, with feedstock import costs and constraints on end- products exports to continue to affect the market. INSIGHT: ICIS cuts April Asia chemical forecast as recession fears hit global market By Ann Sun 17-Apr-25 12:0 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies and the potential for a global recession continues to weigh on global oil prices, projecting a decline in chemical prices as a consequence. The knock-on effect on end markets, coupled with conservative business sentiment, will shape the price trend. Asia petrochemicals slump as US-China trade war stokes recession fears By Jonathan Yee 16-Apr-25 17:34 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US “reciprocal” tariffs are prompting a shift of trade flows and supply chains as market players in Asia seek alternative export outlets for some chemicals, while overall demand remains tepid amid growing fears of a global recession. INSIGHT: US tariff barriers put further downward pressure on the Asian aromatics market By Jenny Yi 16-Apr-25 17:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The macroeconomic repercussions from the escalating US-China trade war and potential for reduced end-market demand are expected to exert additional pressure on Asian aromatics markets. CHINAPLAS ’25: Asia polyolefin players gather for clarity amid US trade war By Jackie Wong 16-Apr-25 14:34 SINGAPORE/SHENZHEN, China (ICIS)–Polyolefin market players from Asia are gathering in China this week for an annual industry event under a cloud of uncertainty as the US embarks on a trade war that could potentially redefine trade flows in the region. China Q1 GDP growth at 5.4%; outlook dims amid trade war with US By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Apr-25 12:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's economy expanded by 5.4% year on year on the first quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter, official data showed on Wednesday, but the world’s second-biggest economy is generally expected to weaken due to the tit-for-tat trade war with the US. INSIGHT: Asia C2 awaits tariff response from Chinese ethane crackers By Josh Quah 16-Apr-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia ethylene markets have settled into a disquieting calm belying the tumult of the past 10 tariff-packed days. The spotlight is now sharply on a segment of players – crackers that crack ethane into ethylene – that may have an impact on the import-export market depending on their response to the US-China trade war. INSIGHT: China propylene supply to fall amid trade tensions with US By Seymour Chenxia 15-Apr-25 14:4 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Escalating US-China trade tensions are expected to raise production cost for Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants and weaken overall domestic demand for propylene (C3) at the same time. Singapore slashes 2025 GDP growth on escalating US-China trade war By Jonathan Yee 14-Apr-25 12:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Monday cut the country's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0-2% from a previous 1-3%, citing escalating US-China trade tensions and the impact of reciprocal tariffs on global trade. INSIGHT: China-US trade war to hurt NGL trades both ways By Lillian Ren 14-Apr-25 14:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–As one of the largest petrochemical producers globally, China plays a vital role in taking in US’ natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and butane for propylene and ethylene production. High tariffs are expected to rule out US NGLs products from China market, which, in turn, will hurt buyers and producers in both countries. INSIGHT: China new energy storage capacity to surge by 2030 By Anita Yang 14-Apr-25 16:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–New energy storage plays a crucial role in ensuring power balance in China, especially in effectively addressing the intermittent issues of new energy generation. It helps alleviate the dual pressures of power supply security and consumption.

21-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Newly announced port fees by the US Trade Representative (USTR) are less substantial than the proposal from February, but a shipping analyst expects vessel supply to decrease and rates to climb on certain routes. Theodor Gerrard-Anderson, chemical freight analyst at Lighthouse Chartering, said that most bulk liquid shipowners will not be affected by the USTR’s final plan for port fees on China-linked vessels, but major Chinese operators will see impacts from Annex I. And despite exemptions in Annex II, Gerrard-Anderson anticipates tighter vessel supply and higher rates for vessels transiting the US Gulf. Annexes I and II from the USTR’s final plan are the applicable sections for the bulk liquid transportation market. The effects from Annex I, which focuses on service fees on Chinese vessel operators and vessel owners of China, will be impacted as many of these owners have established a meaningful presence in the US market and maintain large contract of affreightment (COA) portfolios for trading specialty chems and bulk liquid cargoes, Gerrard-Anderson said. Annex II, which essentially impacts the rest of the bulk liquid transportation market, includes exemptions for tankers less than 80,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) even if they are built in China, and for ships on short sea trades of less than 2,000 nautical miles. Special purpose-built vessels for the transport of chemical substances in bulk liquid forms will not be charged. Another exemption, designed to help maintain US exports, is that ships arriving ballast will not be charged to ensure tonnage is available for export. Analysts at shipping broker NETCO said that most vessels in their segment are exempt under Annex II. On the container shipping side, the softening of the fee structure reduces the risk of severe port congestion and could ease overall upward pressure on freight rates, according to an analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta. Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta senior shipping analyst, said it is significant that the final proposal has fees levied on a net tonnage basis per US voyage, rather than cumulative fees for every port the ship calls at. "We must look carefully at the potential impact of the revised port fees, but changes will be welcomed by the ocean container shipping industry given the significant criticism levelled at the initial proposal during the public hearing,” Stausbøll said. “The fact fees will not be imposed on every port call is particularly important because it lowers the risk of congestion had carriers decided to cut the number of calls on each service into the US,” Stausbøll said. “This port congestion had the potential to cause severe disruption and upward pressure on freight rates.” Stausbøll said costs could still be very high for Chinese carriers and carriers operating Chinese-built vessels – particularly for ships with the largest capacity. "The latest announcement should still be viewed in the context of the original proposal, which offered dire consequences,” Stausbøll said. “The situation has changed for the better, but it isn't a great victory for the ocean container shipping industry because these fees still add further pressure at a time when businesses are already trying to navigate the spiraling tariffs announced by the Trump Administration." Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.

18-Apr-2025

TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory tariffs against the US – regardless of which party, the incumbent Liberals or the opposition Conservatives, wins the upcoming 28 April federal election. In an election debate on Thursday evening, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives, both said that retaliatory tariffs were necessary to deter the US tariff threat. However, Carney said that Canada could not impose full-scale “dollar-for-dollar” counter-tariffs, given that the US economy is more than 10 times larger than Canada’s economy. Rather, the Liberals would aim at counter-tariffs that have maximum impact on the US, but only minimum impact on Canada. In opinion polls about the elections, the Liberals are currently on track for their fourth consecutive victory since 2015. Carney took over from former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on 14 March. AUTO EXEMPTION Carney also confirmed that the government will be granting exemptions to its 25% retaliatory tariffs on US autos that took effect on 9 April. The exemptions will apply to automakers that maintain production and investments in Canada, he said. According to information on the website of Canada’s finance ministry, a “performance-based remission framework” would allow automakers that continue to manufacture vehicles in Canada to import “a certain number” of US-assembled, USMCA-compliant vehicles into Canada, free of retaliatory tariffs. The number of tariff-free vehicles a company is permitted to import would be reduced if there are reductions in the automakers’ Canadian production or investments, according to the ministry. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals that contributes more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Please also visit the ICIS topic pages:Automotive: Impact on chemicals, and US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo of Stellantis' Canadian auto assembly plant at Windsor, Ontario, where production was suspended because of tariff uncertainties (photo source: Stellantis)

18-Apr-2025