The global base oils supply picture is changing because of rising demand for more sophisticated lubricants from the automotive sector. This demand is supporting the gradual move away from Group I stocks, to Group II and Group III base oils.
Globally, Group I supply is declining and new supply is focused on Group II and Group III. Recent production developments and those forecast for the coming years illustrate this shift. New Group II or Group III plants are due to come on line in coming years in several countries, including the US and Spain.
Europe, a region traditionally dominated by Group I supplies, is at the heart of this change, with rising imports, particularly of Group III base oils, arriving from Asia and the Middle East.
Base oil quality and supply varies by region, so it is becoming an even more important product in global trading. The US is the largest supplier of Group II base oils. Group III base oils are mostly produced in Asia. The gas-to-liquid (GTL) base oils come from the Middle East.