Propylene oxide (PO)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Following a better-than-expected 2024 first quarter, US compounder and formulator Avient raised its full-year guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) by $5 million at the low end. Sales into the defense market, along with raw material deflation, were the key earnings drivers in Q1 and Avent expects both to support earnings through 2024, CEO Ashish Khandpur and CFO Jamie Beggs told analysts during the company’s Q1 earnings call on Tuesday. New 2024 guidance Previous 2024 guidance Pro forma 2023 adjusted EBITDA $505 to $535 million $510 to $535 million $501.8 million SALES IMPROVING IN MOST END MARKETSAvient sees demand conditions “generally improving across all regions”, with improved momentum in consumer, packaging, healthcare, defense and industrial end markets, the executives said. After a 35% year-on-year increase in Q1, defense sales amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions, Avient expects those sales to continue growing through 2024, albeit not at the first quarter’s hot pace, they said. Avient’s Dyneema-brand fiber technology is used in the personal protection of soldiers and law enforcement and border control officers. While Avient’s utilization rates in defense are high, the company is able to meet forecast demand growth and expects no capacity limitations this year. However, it may add capacities in the future, depending on demand, which can be “lumpy” in that market, they said. Defense accounted for 7% of Avient’s total 2023 sales of $3.14 billion, with more than half of those sales in the US. Avient acquired the Dyneema business from DSM in 2022. Telecommunications and energy, however, are among the weaker end markets, with first-quarter sales down double-digit and weakness continuing into the second quarter. Destocking in the capital-intensive telecommunications market continued in Q1, with no meaningful rebound in that market expected until 2025, the executives said. Telecommunications accounted for 4% of Avient’s 2023 sales. BY REGION Regionally, Avient sees good momentum in the US in markets such as consumer packaging, defense, building and construction, industrial and infrastructure. “Destocking in those markets is over”, Khandpur said. With the exception of telecommunications and energy, overall demand in North America is “coming back quite well”, he said. However, persistent inflation is delaying the timing of interest rate cuts, which could weigh on sales in end markets such as building and construction, transportation and industrial, the executives said. In China, about 70% of Avient’s sales go into the local market, putting the company into a good position as that country’s economic policies transition to focus on the domestic market, the executives said. In Europe, demand in packaging and healthcare is improving, but Avient expects the region’s overall year-on-year sales growth to be soft. Consumer confidence in Europe is weak and eurozone manufacturing continues to signal contraction, they noted. Meanwhile, the stronger US dollar has become a headwind, they added. Sales by region in 2023: RAW MATERIAL DEFLATION Raw material deflation will continue to support margin expansion in the second quarter, albeit to a lesser extent than in the first quarter, the executives said. In the first quarter, Avient saw better-than-expected pricing for non hydrocarbon-based raw materials such as pigments and certain performance additives. Primary raw materials used in Avient’s manufacturing operations include polyolefin and other thermoplastic resins, titanium oxide (TiO2), inorganic and organic pigments, specialty additives and ethylene. Pricing, net of raw materials, should help drive year-on-year earnings growth in 2024, the executives said. Also, the company expects additional margin expansion due synergies and plant closures related to its acquisition of Clariant’s masterbatch business back in 2020, Beggs noted. M&A NOT A PRIORITY In the near-term, Avient will focus on organic growth and margin expansion whereas growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is not a priority. While Avient is not ruling out M&A, any deals would be “small and bolt-on in nature”, in areas like healthcare, sustainable solutions or composites, with focus on Asia and Latin America, Khandpur said. “Premiums are pretty high” in M&A, he added. Thumbnail photo of Ashish Khandpur, who took over as Avient's CEO and president on 1 December 2023; photo source: Avient

07-May-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazilian chemicals producers are lobbying hard for an increase in import tariffs for key polymers and petrochemicals from 12.6% to 20%, and higher in cases, hoping the hike could slow down the influx of cheap imports, which have put them against the wall. For some products, Brazil’s chemicals trade group Abiquim, which represents producers, has made official requests for the import tariffs to go up to a hefty 35%, from 9% in some cases. On Tuesday, Abiquim said several of its member companies “are already talking about hibernating plants” due to unprofitable economics. It did so after it published another set of somber statistics for the first quarter, when imports continued entering Brazil em masse. Brazil’s government Chamber of Foreign Commerce (Camex) is concluding on Tuesday a public consultation about this, with its decision expected in coming weeks. Abiquim has been busy with the public consultation: it has made as many as 66 proposals for import tariffs to be hiked for several petrochemicals and fertilizers, including widely used polymers such polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polystyrene (PS), or expandable PS (EPS), to mention just a few. Other chemicals trade groups, as well as companies, have also filed requests for import tariffs to be increased. In total, 110 import tariffs. HARD TO FIGHT OFFBrazil has always depended on imports to cover its internal chemicals demand, but the extraordinary low prices coming from competitors abroad has made Brazil’s chemicals plant to run with operating rates of 65% or lower. More and more, the country’s chemicals facilities are becoming white elephants which are far from their potential, as customers find in imported product more competitive pricing. Considering this dire situation and taking into account that the current government in Brasilia led by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may be more receptive to their demands, Abiquim has put a good fight in publica and private for measure which could shore up chemical producers’ competitiveness. This could come after the government already hiked import tariffs on several products in 2023 and re-introduced a tax break, called REIQ, for some chemicals which had been withdrawn by the previous Administration. While Brazil’s chemicals production competitiveness is mostly affected by higher input costs, with natural gas costs on average five times higher than in the US, the industry is hopeful a helping hand from the government in the form of higher import tariffs could slow down the flow of imports into Brazil. As a ‘price taker region’ given its dependence on imports, Latin American domestic producers have taken a hit in the past two years. In Brazil, polymers major Braskem is Abiquim’s commanding voice. Abiquim, obviously, has always been very outspoken – even apocalyptic – about the fate of its members as they try to compete with overseas countries, namely China who has been sending abroad product at below cost of production. The priorities in China’s dictatorial system are not related to the balance of markets, but to keep employment levels stable so its citizens find fewer excuses to protest against the regime which keeps them oppressed. Capitalist market dynamics are for the rest of the world to balance; in China’s dictatorial, controlled-economy regime the priority is to make people feel the regime’s legitimacy can come from never-ending economic growth. The results of such a policy for the rest of the world – not just in chemicals but in all industrial goods – is becoming clear: unprofitable industries which cannot really compete with heavily subsidized Chinese players. The results of such a policy in China are yet to be seen, but subsiding at all costs any industry which creates employment may have debt-related lasting consequences: as they mantra goes, “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” Abiquim’s executive president urged Lula’s cabinet to look north, to the US, where the government has imposed hefty tariffs on almost all China-produced industrial goods or raw materials for manufacturing production. “[The hikes in import tariffs] have improved the US’ scenario: despite the aggressive advance in exports by Asian countries, the drop in US [chemicals] production in 2023 was of 1%, while in Brazil the index for production fell nearly by 10%,” said Andre Passos. “The country adopted an increase in import taxes of over 30% to defend its market from unfair competition. The taxation for some inputs, such as phenol, resins and adipic [acid], for example, exceeds three digits. “Here, we are suggesting an increase in rates to 20% in most claims … We need to have this breathing space for the industry to recover,” he concluded. As such, the figures for the first quarter showed no sign of imports into Brazil slowing down. The country posted a trade deficit $9.9 billion during the January-March period; the 12-month accumulated (April 2023 to March 2024) deficit stood at $44.7 billion. A record high of 61.2 million tonnes of chemicals products entered Brazil in Q1; in turn, the country’s industry exported 14.6 million tonnes. Abiquim proposals for higher import tariffs Product Current import tariff Proposed tariff Expandable polystyrene, unfilled, in primary form 12.6% 20% Other polystyrenes in primary forms 12.6% 20% Carboxymethylcellulose with content > =75%, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other polyurethanes in liquids and pastes 12.6% 20% Phthalic anhydride 10.8% 20%  Sodium hydrogen carbonate (bicarbonate) 9% 35% Copolymers of ethylene and alpha-olefin, with a density of less than 0.94 12.6% 20% Other orthophthalic acid esters 11% 20% Other styrene polymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other silicon dioxides 0% 18% Other polyesters in liquids and pastes  12.6% 20% Commercial ammonium carbonates and other ammonium carbonates 9% 18% Other unsaturated polyethers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Polyethylene terephthalate, with a viscosity index of 78 ml/g or more 12.6% 20% Phosphoric acid with an iron content of less than 750 ppm 9% 18% Dinonyl or didecyl orthophthalates 11% 20% Poly(vinyl chloride), not mixed with other substances, obtained by suspension process 12.6% 20% Poly(vinyl chloride), not mixed with other substances, obtained by emulsion process 12.6% 20% Methyl polymethacrylate, in primary form  12.6% 20% White mineral oils (vaseline or paraffin oils) 4% 35% Other polyetherpolyols, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other unfilled epoxy resins in primary forms 12.6% 20% Silicon dioxide obtained by chemical precipitation 9% 18% Acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber in plates, sheets, etc 11% 35% Other organic anionic surface agents, whether or not put up for retail sale, not classified under previous codes 12.6% 23% Phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts 7% 20% Fumaric acid, its salts and esters 10 ,8% 20% Plasticizers and plastics 10 ,8% 20% Maleic anhydride 10 ,8% 20% Adipic acid salts and esters 10 ,8% 20% Propylene copolymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Adipic acid 9% 20% Unfilled polypropylene, in primary form 12.6% 20% Filled polypropylene, in primary form 12.6% 20% Methacrylic acid methyl esters 10 ,8% 20% Other ethylene polymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Acrylic acid 2-ethylhexyl esters 0% 20% 2-Ethylexanoic acid (2-ethylexoic acid) 10. 8% 20% Other copolymers of ethylene and vinyl acetate, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other unfilled polyethylenes, density >= 0.94, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, unfilled 12.6% 20% Other saturated acyclic monoalcohol acetates, c atom <= 8 10. 8% 20% Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, with filler 12.6% 20% Triacetin 10. 8% 20% Sodium methylate in methanol 12.6% 20% Stearic alcohol (industrial fatty alcohol) 12.6% 20% N-butyl acetate                              11% 20% Stearic acid (industrial monocarboxylic fatty acid) 5% 35% Alkylbenzene mixtures 11% 20% Organic, non-ionic surface agents 12.6% 23% Ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution 0.0% 15% Monoethanolamine and its salts 12.6% 20% Isobutyl alcohol (2-methyl-1-propanol) 10.8% 20% Butan-1-ol (n-butyl alcohol) 10.8% 20% Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), food grade as established by the Food Chemical Codex, in primary forms 10.8% 22% Styrene                                9% 18% Hexamethylenediamine and its salts 10.8% 20% Latex from other synthetic or artificial rubbers 10.8% 35% Propylene glycol (propane-1, 2-diol) 10.8% 20% Preparations 12.6% 20% Linear alkylbenzene sulfonic acids and their salts 12.6% 23% 4,4'-Isopropylidenediphenol (bisphenol A, diphenylolpropane) and its salts 10.8% 20% Dipropylene glycol 12.6% 20% Butanone (methyl ethyl ketone) 10.8% 20% Ethyl acetate                                 10.8% 20% Methyl-, ethyl- and propylcellulose, hydroxylated 0.0% 20% Front page picture: Chemical production facilities outside Sao Paulo  Source: Union of Chemical and Petrochemical industries in the state of Sao Paulo (Sinproquim) Focus article by Jonathan Lopez Additional information by Thais Matsuda and Bruno Menini

30-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–INEOS Styrolution is temporarily shutting its styrene plant in Sarnia, Ontario, after nearby residents complained they became ill from the plant’s emissions. “At INEOS Styrolution, ensuring the health and safety of our employees and community is paramount,” the company said in a statement. “We are temporarily shutting down our facility located in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada, to perform maintenance and address a mechanical issue. We will resume operations once addressed.” The plant has capacity to produce 445,000 tonnes/year of styrene and 490,000 tonnes/year of ethylbenzene (EB), according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. The shutdown came after the Aamjiwnaang First Nation community asked the government to close the plant when members complained of becoming sick and said that data indicated high levels of benzene in the air. Members reported having headaches, nausea and dizziness due to poor air quality. Aamjiwnaang First Nation describes itself as a community of about 2,500 Chippewa Aboriginal peoples located on the St Clair River in the city limits of Sarnia. Last week, Ontario Environment Minister Andrea Khanjin said that she expected the company to “quickly identify and reduce” emissions at the site, according to news reports. In 2020, the Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks created the Sarnia Area Environmental Health Project to look into concerns that residents expressed about air pollutants and other quality-of-life impacts from living close to industrial operations in the area. The project includes regularly measuring air quality for potential health risks. The shutdown will further tighten the North American styrene market, which has experienced a number of outages that have put upward pressure on contract and spot prices. Styrolution’s Texas City, Texas, plant has been shut since mid-2023. In addition, Total remains on force majeure from its joint-venture CosMar unit in Carville, Louisiana, and LyondellBasell’s propylene oxide/styrene monomer (POSM) plant in Channelview, Texas, is undergoing maintenance. Shell recently restarted its Scotford, Alberta, styrene unit but it is not operating at full capacity, according to market sources. US styrene contract prices in April were assessed at their highest level since Q3 2023 due to the rise in spot prices, which are up approximately 50% since the beginning of the year. Styrene is a chemical used to make latex and polystyrene resins, which in turn are used to make plastic packaging, disposable cups and insulation. Major North American styrene producers include AmSty, INEOS Styrolution, LyondellBasell Chemical, Shell Chemicals Canada, Total Petrochemicals and Westlake Styrene.

22-Apr-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 12 April. NEWS Argentina’s inflation up to 288% in March, but central bank cuts rates on ‘pronounced slowdown’Argentina’s annual rate of inflation rose to 287.9% in March, up from 276% in February, the country’s statistical agency Indec said on Friday. Argentina to scrap import duty on urea and UAN fertilizer In Argentina, the government plans to remove import duties on urea and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), which are currently at 5.4% and 3.6% respectively, said Economy Minister Luis Caputo on X, formerly Twitter. Brazil’s inflation falls below 4% in March Brazil’s annual rate of inflation fell to 3.93% in March, down from 4.50% in February, and its lowest reading since June 2023, the country’s statistical agency IBGE said on Wednesday. Brazil’s Unigel ‘vehemently’ denies irregularities in Petrobras contract Unigel has “vehemently refuted” the existence of any irregularity in its tolling contract with Petrobras for two fertilizers plants, the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Wednesday. Mexico’s inflation down to 4.2% in March Mexico’s annual rate of inflation fell in March to 4.2%, down from 4.40% in February, the country’s statistics agency Inegi said on Tuesday. Argentina PVC sector faces headwinds amid infrastructure investment reductions Argentina polyvinyl chloride (PVC) sector faces challenges as the government reduces infrastructure investments in 2024, with an estimated 7.5% decrease in projects. Chile inflation falls to 3.7% in March Chile’s annual inflation rate fell in March to 3.7%, down from 4.5% in February, according to the country’s statistics office INE. Brazil’s automotive output barely up in Q1, sales rise 9% Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive automotive output rose by 0.4% in the first quarter, year on year, to just below 550,000 units, the country’s trade group Anfavea said on Monday. PRICING LatAm PP domestic prices fall in Chile, Mexico on competitive offers from abroad, lower US spot PGP prices Domestic prices fell in Chile, Mexico due to competitive offers from abroad and lower US spot propylene costs. In other Latin American (LatAm) countries, prices were unchanged. LatAm PE international prices stable to down on lower US export prices International polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as stable to down across Latin American (LatAm) countries on the back of lower US export prices. Weather conditions start to slightly shift PET demand in Latin America Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices remained stable in Brazil, with a slight softening in consumption coinciding with stabilized temperatures. However, demand continues to exceed expectations when compared with the corresponding period last year.

15-Apr-2024

LONDON (ICIS)—ExxonMobil Chemical France has announced plans to close its chemical production at Gravenchon, in Normandy in France in 2024, subject to the relevant government approvals. According to a press release, the steamcracker and related derivatives units and logistics facilities will be shut down. The company said the site has lost more than €500 million since 2018 and despite efforts to improve the site’s economics, it remains uncompetitive. According to the ICIS Supply & Demand database, the cracker has the capacity to produce 425,000 tonnes/year of ethylene and 290,000 tonnes/year of propylene and was started up in 1967. A butadiene (BD) unit is also at the site and associated derivatives include polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP). ExxonMobil's nearby Port Jerome refinery will continue to operate supplying fuels, lubricants, basestocks and asphalt. The closure will impact 677 jobs through 2025. ExxonMobil said this planned closure is entirely separate from the Esso S.A.F. announcement regarding its proposed sale of the Esso Fos-sur-Mer refinery and South France logistics assets. Charles Amyot, president of ExxonMobil companies in France said: “It has been a very difficult decision for us to take, but we cannot continue to operate at such a loss.” This week Saudi Arabia's Sabic also revealed plans to permanently close its Olefins 3 cracker – one of two at their Geleen, Netherlands site.

11-Apr-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The average run rate of China's propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units declined on 3 April to 47.6%, down from 58.7% from a week before, marking the biggest week-on-week decrease ever and hitting the lowest point on record, according to ICIS data. Plant utilization should pick up from late April as facilities restart from maintenance, with expectations that the propylene-propane price spread will widen into Q3. In this podcast, ICIS analyst Wang Yan shares insights on the challenges being faced by PDH operators.

11-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–INVISTA plans to explore strategic alternatives for its nylon fibers business and has engaged Barclays as exclusive financial advisor during the exploration process, the US-based manufacturer of chemical intermediates, polymers and fibers said in a statement late on Tuesday. The nylon fibers business includes: INVISTA’s fiber-focused portfolio: airbag and industrial fibers The CORDURA businesses Five supporting global manufacturing locations: Seaford, Delaware and Martinsville, Virginia, both in the US; Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Gloucester, UK; and Qingpu, China INVISTA believes that there are other companies with a different focus and capabilities that could create greater value with those assets, said CEO Francis Murphy. If, however, through the process INVISTA finds that other companies do not value the nylon business more highly, it will continue to operate it, Murphy said. If INVISTA proceeds with a transaction, it would also result in a simplification and strengthened focus on its long-term competitive positions in the upstream nylon and propylene value chain businesses, it said. The nylon fiber assets are a major part of the current INVISTA footprint, “and it would be premature to speculate on the final structure of a potential deal”, it said, adding that details of the business and exploration process are confidential. Regardless of a potential transaction to divest its nylon fibers business, INVISTA will continue to supply its global nylon and propylene value chain customers with intermediates, polymers and specialty chemicals, the company said. Photo source: Attapon Thana/Shutterstock

10-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be extremely active, and has similar characteristics to the 2020 season, meaning it could threaten offshore oil and natural gas production in the US Gulf and chemical producers along the Gulf Coast. Source: Colorado State University (CSU)  A report late last week from researchers at CSU follows a report released on 27 March by US meteorology firm AccuWeather that also predicted an active hurricane season. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will issue its first seasonal hurricane report in late May. So far, the CSU team said it is seeing similar characteristics to hurricane seasons in 1998, 2010 and 2020. The 2020 season saw 30 named storms, of which 13 became hurricanes and six of those were major storms. Storms in 2020 that impacted chemical operations included: Tropical Storm Marco hit Louisiana on 24 August. Days later, Hurricane Laura made landfall as a powerful category 4 storm in Louisiana near the border of Texas. Then, Hurricane Sally made landfall on 16 September in Alabama as a category 2 storm, followed by Tropical Storm Beta which made landfall less than a week later in Texas. Hurricane Delta followed a similar path as Hurricane Laura, making landfall on 9 October as a category 2 storm in Louisiana. Weeks later, Hurricane Zeta hit Cocodrie, Louisiana, as a category 2 storm. Hurricane Laura knocked 16% of total US ethylene capacity and 11% of total US propylene capacity offline, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. About 18% of polyethylene (PE) production was offline, and 26% of polypropylene (PP) production was offline. Styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), a synthetic rubber used to make tires, had 46% of its US capacity offline. The CSU team said record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are the primary factor for the active season prediction. “When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” researchers said. “These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.” Warm ocean waters serve as the fuel source for hurricanes, the CSU team said. “In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere,” they said. “Both conditions favor hurricanes.” The current El Nino is likely to transition to a La Nina by the peak of the season – from August to October. Hurricane season begins on 1 June and runs through the end of November. Hurricanes and tropical storms can disrupt the North American petrochemical industry, because oil and gas production are concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, many of the nation's refineries and petrochemical plants are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana. Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas production, because companies must evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution. Thumbnail image shows a weather satellite orbiting over a hurricane. Photo by John Pulsipher/image from Shutterstock

08-Apr-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 5 April. NEWS Mexico’s automotive output falls nearly 13% in March Mexico’s automotive sector output fell by 12.75% in March, month on month, to just over 300,000 units, the country’s statistical office Inegi said on Wednesday. Sanitation framework, nascent LatAm lithium industry keeping Brazil’s chloralkali afloat – Abiclor Brazil’s chlorine and caustic soda sectors have kept afloat in better health than the wider chemicals industry as sanitation plans and new lithium exploitations across Latin America keep demand high, according to the director general at the country’s trade group Abiclor. Brazil’s chemicals, industrial output falls in February Brazil’s chemicals output fell in February by 3.5%, month on month, one of the largest falls among the subsectors measured, the country’s statistical office IBGE said on Wednesday. Petrobras ‘proactively’ engaging with Federal auditor about tolling contract with Unigel Petrobras continues to “clarify in a timely manner” all the information requested by the Federal auditor regarding its tolling contract with Unigel, a spokesperson for the Brazilian energy major said to ICIS on Tuesday. Brazil’s Unigel postpones Q4 results amid debt restructuring Unigel has postponed the publication of its Q4 and 2023 financial results as its debt restructuring is ongoing, the Brazilian chemicals and fertilizers producer said on Tuesday. MOVES: Brazil’s Unipar appoints Alexandre Jerussalmy as CFO Unipar has appointed Alexandre Jerussalmy as CFO and investor relations officer, effective immediately, the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Tuesday. Colombia’s manufacturing slows down in March on lower sales Colombia’s manufacturing output growth slowed down in March on the back of lower sales, although it marked its third month in expansion territory, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Brazil's manufacturing March output healthy on new orders, fueling job creation Brazil’s manufacturing continued expanding at pace in March on the back of a healthy new order book, prompting firms to increase workforces, S&P Global said on Monday. Mexico’s manufacturing steady in March but subdued US demand causes concern Mexico’s manufacturing output stayed stable in March but firms are getting increasingly worried about lower demand from the US, the key market for the country’s export-intensive manufacturers, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. PRICING Lat Am PP domestic prices down in Argentina, Mexico on lower US PGP spot prices, weak demand Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices dropped in Argentina and Mexico on the back of lower US spot propylene prices and weak demand. In other Latin American countries, prices remained steady. LatAm PE international prices steady to lower on lower US export offers International polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to lower on the back of lower US export offers. Ethanol prices in Brazil experiencing surges during April The prices of hydrous ethanol surged during the initial week of April, propelled by consistent strong sales in Brazil. Unigel to raise PS April prices in Brazil Unigel is seeking an 11% price increase on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil starting on 1 April, according to a customer letter. Innova seeks April PS price increase in Brazil Innova is seeking a real (R) 1,000/tonne ($200/tonne) price increase, excluding local taxes, on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil starting on 1 April, according to a customer letter.

08-Apr-2024

SWE volumes flip to surplus on Italian Alps for the first time in two years – CIMA This should support Italy’s hydropower margins and pressure power, gas prices Snowmelt should lift water reservoirs above average, boost hydro and limit gas needs LONDON (ICIS)–Abundant snowfall on the Italian Alps through February and March boosted the snowpack after two years of deficit from severe drought, which has resulted in a confident outlook for hydropower generation this summer and could pressure Italian power and gas prices. For the first time in two years the Italian Alps’ snow water equivalent (SWE) volumes, a measure of the water contained in the snow, flipped above the median over the last 12 years, in particular the Po river basin, Italy’s largest river, shown by data up to 1 April published by the Italian CIMA Research Foundation’s study on 4 April. This was a significant improvement from the first part of the past winter, when CIMA’s data initially indicated a snowpack deficit. The surplus of SWE volumes brings some security of supply as most of Italy’s water reservoirs and hydropower plants are located in proximity to the Alpine region. However, CIMA warned that while the overall SWE volumes for Italy showed a slight surplus, the central and southern basins were recorded at a deficit. Although, the deficit is unlikely to cause a risk for hydropower supply, as most of the capacity is concentrated in the north. “The reason for these differences [between the Alps and the Apennines] is, as always, linked to rainfall and temperatures,” said Francesco Avanzi, hydrologist at the CIMA Foundation, in the report. Avanzi also said that March had more precipitation in the northern and central region of Italy, but on the other hand the Apennines had temperatures that were more than 2.5°C higher compared to the average of the last decade throughout winter, which led to less snowfall and early melting of the snow. The study showed that further snowfalls are very unlikely, while early snowmelt could also represent a risk in the hottest summer months if it leads to a lack of water from the mountains over the third quarter. “For [the SWE surplus] to be truly useful in the periods when we need water most, the snow must remain snow for a few more weeks” Avanzi indicated in the report. IMPACT ON POWER The snow surplus can support the refill of water reservoirs and hydropower supply margins, providing secure supply of power. Additionally, higher SWE levels can reduce heatwave-related risks for the gas-fired generation plants located along the Po river. During past summers, heatwaves and low river levels caused gas plants to curb their power output due to difficulties in cooling their systems. Italy has 22.1GW of hydropower generation capacity, mainly from run-of-river and poundage and pumped hydro storage, according to ENTSO-E data. In 2023 hydropower generation totalled 39.3TWh, accounting for more than 15% of the total generation and representing the country’s top renewable generation source and the second power supply source behind gas, according to grid operator Terna. Wider hydropower supply margins means that cheaper electricity could be available this summer, therefore pressuring Italian power products and narrowing their premium to key European neighbours. IMPACT ON GAS Stronger hydropower output could also reduce the need for gas-fired generation this summer and result in lower gas consumption for producing electricity, which is potentially a bearish factor for PSV prices with delivery this summer. Combined-cycle gas turbines are Italy’s main source of power supply, with a 45.1GW-strong fleet and a total output of almost 134TWh in 2023, accounting for more than 52% of the total power supply mix over the same year. In 2023, Italy consumed 21 billion cubic metres of natural gas for electricity generation, or 35% of the total gas consumption according to gas grid operator SNAM. Improving hydro margins could further pressure Italian gas demand, continuing the declining trend seen in 2023. Note: Snow water volume graphs published with the permission of CIMA Research Foundation

05-Apr-2024