
Epoxy resins
Understanding this complex market with end-to-end supply chain analysis
Discover the factors influencing epoxy resins markets
Demand and supply chain challenges have the potential to cause shortages in the epoxy resins market. Scarcity of supply can be caused by plant closures, extreme weather conditions, logistics issues, and increases in crude oil prices can all force downstream manufacturers to delay production or find alternatives.
The main applications for epoxy resins include adhesives, high-performance coatings into construction, protective industrial and marine coatings, electrical/electronic laminates and adhesives, and structural parts for the automotive, aerospace, and aircraft industries. They are high-performance thermosetting resins with excellent adhesion, chemical and heat resistance, plus electrical insulating properties.
ICIS epoxy resin prices provide an important benchmark. Access actionable market news in real time and view reports that place market trends in context, including the impact of supply disruptions, changes in demand or capacities and trade flow opportunities between the regions. ICIS monitors developments in key upstream markets including BPA and ECH feedstocks, and movements in crude oil, glycerine and propylene markets. We also provide analysis of downstream markets. This includes the impact of consumer trends, demand shifts and seasonal demand.
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PODCAST: Stable Europe ABS, ACN demand expected amid evolving supply landscape
LONDON (ICIS)–Relatively stable demand and evolving global supply dynamics are expected in European acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets in 2025. In this latest podcast, Europe ABS report editor Stephanie Wix and her counterpart on the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. Geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges dampen prospects of demand resurgence Balanced-to-long supply dynamics anticipated to endure Players assess impact of EU ADD investigation into ABS imports from South Korea, Taiwan ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products. ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibres for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.
07-Feb-2025
Brazil chemicals deficit hits $49 billion in 2024 despite higher tariffs by year-end
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil's chemical industry posted a $48.7 billion trade deficit in 2024 as imports surged to $63.9 billion, driven by “predatory pricing” from US and Asian suppliers, the country’s chemicals trade group Abiquim said. Asian suppliers, moreover, benefited from discounted Russian raw materials and, in China’s case, from heavy subsidies from the state, the trade group added. The overall deficit, while substantial, remained below the 2022 record of $63 billion, though Abiquim noted this was primarily due what it described as “predatory import pricing” which cushioned the “real imbalance” in the trade balance." Import volumes rose 11.5% to 65.3 million tonnes of chemicals, with fertilizer intermediates accounting for 41.1 million tonnes, up 7.4% from 2023. This marked the highest import volume since records began in 1989, as Asian suppliers leveraged cheaper Russian materials amid the war in Ukraine. Abiquim’s CEO said 2024 had been challenging for Brazil’s chemicals producers, although the year was also marked by the higher import tariffs approved for 30 chemical products, which gave the sector a boost in November and December, said Andre Passos. Following October's tariff implementation, domestic production rose 6.35% in the final two months, he added. The trade group’s CEO said higher tariffs were a welcome step but much more needed to be done to protect Brazil’s chemicals producers’ operations and their transition to the green economy. “We know that this [higher tariffs] is just the first step and it is essential to keep facing up to the extremely adverse international scenario, with excess production capacity for chemical products in the world and heavy subsidy programs in the world’s main chemical producers,” said Passos. “We are crossing the gateway to the low-carbon economy and the chemical industry is ready to lead this transition. Low-carbon chemistry is related to the use of technologies that reduce or neutralize greenhouse gas emissions. “Renewable chemistry, carbon capture and storage, and chemical recycling are some examples of this leadership that can be exercised by the Brazilian chemical industry,” he concluded. ASIA DOMINATES Asian suppliers, excluding the Middle East, dominated imports with a 31% share worth $19.6 billion, creating an $18 billion regional trade gap. The deficit with Asia has steadily worsened from $10bn in 2020 to $16.2bn in 2023, said Abiquim, reflecting China’s overcapacities and the country’s switch from net importer to next exporter for most chemicals. Domestic manufacturers faced increased competition across all segments, with imports of resins and elastomers jumping 32.4%, organic chemicals 14.3%, inorganics 9.1%, and other industrial chemicals 9.3%. Import prices averaged 6.3% lower than 2023, leading to domestic plant closures, said Abiquim. Brazilian chemical exports rose 4.3% to $15.2 billion, though volumes dipped 0.2%. The sector maintained its position as the country's third-largest manufacturing exporter, behind food products at $66.5 billion and base metals at $23.2 billion, said Abiquim.
05-Feb-2025
Japan's Sumitomo Chemical cuts stake in Sumitomo Bakelite
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's Sumitomo Chemical has sold a portion of its stake in specialty chemicals producer Sumitomo Bakelite as part of a broader plan to enhance its financial performance through asset sales. Sumitomo Chemical on 4 February said that it has sold around 5.25 million shares of Sumitomo Bakelite for around yen (Y) 19.1 billion ($123 million), the Japanese producer said on Tuesday. Sumitomo Bakelite produces a range of chemical products, including phenolic, epoxy and polyimide resins, as well as other specialty chemicals. The stake sale reduced Sumitomo Chemical’s stake in the specialty chemicals producer to 10.6% from 15.6% previously. Sumitomo Chemical expects a one-time gain of around Y17.7 billion from the sale in its non-consolidated financial results for the year ending 31 March 2025. "Sumitomo Chemical is implementing its short-term intensive performance improvement measures aimed at ensuring a V-shaped recovery in fiscal 2024 and strengthening its financial position to lay the groundwork for future fundamental structural reforms," the company said. On 3 February, the company announced that it will be divesting 66.6% of its share in wholly-owned subsidiary Sumitomo Chemical Engineering Co (SCEC) by 31 March to Japan's JFE Engineering Corp for an undisclosed fee. Sumitomo Chemical will retain a 33.4% stake in SCEC following the sale. "SCEC will maintain a good relationship with the Sumitomo Chemical Group as it works to maximize its synergies with the JFE Group," the company said. SCEC provides engineering, procurement, construction, operation and maintenance services for environmental facilities, energy facilities, including liquified natural gas stations and renewable energy plants, as well as chemical plants. In the nine months to 31 December 2024, Sumitomo Chemical swung into a net profit on improved selling prices at its core essential and green materials segment, the Japanese producer said on 3 February. in Japanese yen (Y) billions Apr-Dec 2024 Apr-Dec 2023 % Change Sales 1,904.8 1,806.9 5.4 Operating income 145.4 -160.6 Net income 28.6 -109.8 The company's selling prices for synthetic resins, methyl methacrylate, and industrial chemicals rose due to higher raw material costs during the period. However, aluminum shipments declined following the group's exit from the business, resulting in a ¥8.8 billion decrease in essential and green materials sales revenue to Y672.9 billion. Despite this, the segment trimmed its core operating loss by Y16.2 billion to Y44.3 billion, aided by better market conditions, although the financial performance of its 37.5%-owned Saudi chemical producer Petro Rabigh deteriorated. Saudi Aramco owns 62.5% of Petro Rabigh. MANAGEMENT CHANGES Sumitomo Chemical on 3 February announced that Nobuaki Mito, the company's senior managing executive officer, will take over as the company's new president. Mito is expected to be inaugurated as representative director and president of Sumitomo Chemical in June this year, while incumbent president, Keiichi Iwata, will become chairman. ($1 = Y155.20)
04-Feb-2025
India launches antidumping probe on EU, Japan PVC paste resins
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India has initiated an antidumping investigation into imports of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) paste resin from the EU and Japan. In a notification on 24 January, the country’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) said the probe was in response to a complaint from domestic producer Chemplast Sanmar Ltd. Chemplast and Finolex Industries are the only domestic producers of PVC paste resins. The ADD investigation will cover 18 months from 1 April 2023 to 30 September 2024, while the injury investigation period will be three fiscal years from April 2020 to March 2023. India’s fiscal year ends in March. It is expected to last one year, with preliminary findings usually made within 60 to 70 days from the start of the probe. In December 2024, the DGTR recommended imposition of ADDs of $89/tonne to $707/tonne on PVC paste resin imports from China, South Korea, Malaysia, Norway, Taiwan and Thailand for five years. PVC paste resin is usually mixed with plasticizers and additives and used to create various products including wallpapers, automotive sealant, industrial coatings, tarpaulins, adhesives, gloves and synthetic leather.
28-Jan-2025
Americas top stories: weekly summary
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 24 January. Hard freeze to hit chem plants on US Gulf Coast, threatens operations Temperatures along the US Gulf Coast should fall well below freezing later in the week and remain there for a prolonged stretch, threatening operations at chemical plants and refineries. US President Trump proposes no tariffs on first day in office US President Donald Trump proposed no new tariffs on his first day of office, and instead instructed his administration to investigate the nation's trade deficit and other areas of trade policy. INSIGHT: US tariffs slower to materialize as Trump assumes the US Presidency A US Presidential inauguration day packed with fresh legislation saw few of the expected moves on tariffs and trade policy. UPDATE: US Gulf Coast chemical plants reel from cold snap Cold weather in the US Gulf Coast on Tuesday is expected to disrupt petrochemicals operations in Texas and Louisiana as companies take preventive measures. INSIGHT: Trump's first-day orders lay groundwork for future tariffs US President Donald Trump did not propose any new tariffs on his first day in office, but he did issue an executive order that calls for his administration to conduct the investigations needed to impose them under several sections of the law – in many cases, repeating the same playbook Trump used during his first term in office. UPDATE: US freeze shuts numerous chem plants, major ports Winter storm Enzo, which caused a hard freeze along the US Gulf Coast, led to widespread shutdowns among chemical plants and refineries. INSIGHT: Trump's moratorium on federal wind projects may have little effect on epoxy The moratorium on federal permits for wind projects will likely have little effect on the US industry and on the epoxy resins it consumes because most turbines are built on private land. US ExxonMobil may build cracker, PE plant in Texas ExxonMobil may build an ethane cracker and polyethylene (PE) plant near Corpus Christi, Texas, the company said in an application for a tax break.
27-Jan-2025
INSIGHT: Trump's moratorium on federal wind projects may have little effect on epoxy
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The moratorium on federal permits for wind projects will likely have little effect on the US industry and on the epoxy resins it consumes because most turbines are built on private land. Wind turbines make up a fast-growing market for epoxy resins. They also consume unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) and lubricants. The moratorium on federal wind permits was among the numerous orders that US President Donald Trump issued on his first day in office. The effect on the moratorium will likely be small, since only 5% of utility-scale wind capacity is generated by turbines on federal land, according to the US Department of the Interior. Some of this may be attributed to the share of wind power installed in Texas, most of which is private and not owned by the federal government. Out of the 150 gigawatts (GW) of installed US wind energy, more than 41GW was in Texas as of 2023, according to a report issued by the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Out of the new wind capacity installed in 2023, 1.3GW out of 6.5GW was installed in Texas, the report said. Expansion of wind energy has been supported by a federal production tax credit, according to the report, and Trump did not rescind that tax credit in his executive order. State policies also support wind energy, and those policies should continue regardless of the executive orders. The trend that is slowing down the wind industry is high interest rates. Those, as well as interconnection and siting, helped make 2023 the lowest in terms of installed capacity since 2014, according to the report. LARGE PIPELINE FOR OFFSHORE WIND PROJECTSThe US has a large pipeline of possible offshore wind projects, with 932 megawatts (MW) under construction, according to a 2023 report from the Department of Energy. Another 1,100MW off capacity have received local permits and federal approval of its construction and operational plan. Nearly 21GW are in the permitting stage, but it is unclear whether these offshore projects will need any federal permits. State jurisdiction of submerged lands can extend out to three or nine nautical miles, depending on whether the land is under the Atlantic or Pacific ocean or whether it is under the Gulf of Mexico. Offshore wind capacity totaled only 42MW, making up a tiny share of total US capacity, according to the 2023 report. TRADE GROUP OPPOSES MORATORIUMDespite the small number of wind projects on federal land, the American Clean Power Association (ACP) spoke out against the moratorium. “ACP strongly opposes blanket measures to halt or impede development of domestic wind energy on federal lands and waters. The contradiction between the energy-focused executive orders is stark: while on one hand the administration seeks to reduce bureaucracy and unleash energy production, on the other it increases bureaucratic barriers, undermining domestic energy development and harming American businesses and workers," the group said. “For too long, we have witnessed careening policy restrictions on the development of energy resources on our nation’s vast federal lands. Regardless of administration, 'some of the above' strategies are not good energy policy. No nation can achieve energy dominance absent consistent policy that moves beyond the idea that energy systems have partisan character," the ACP said. The paltry amount of wind power installed on federal land hides its potential. Federal lands have the potential to produce 875GW of land-based wind energy, according to a report issued in 2025 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). If the most stringent siting constraints are assumed, then federal land could produce 70GW of land-based wind. Europe provides another illustration of the potential growth for wind power. It has 278GW of power capacity, with 243GW onshore, according to Wind Power, a trade group. Capacity should grow by 22GW/year from 2024-2030. The trade group Epoxy Europe estimates that wind energy consumes 40,000 tonnes/year of the epoxy resins produced by its members. DETAILS ON THE MORATORIUMUnder one of his executive orders, Trump requested that the government conduct a review of federal wind leasing and permitting policies. Until the government completes that review, no new or renewed approvals, rights of way, permits, leases or loans will be issued for onshore or offshore federal wind projects by the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Secretary of Energy, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the heads of all other relevant government agencies. Moreover, the government will not lease the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for wind projects. Existing wind leases in the OCS will be reviewed to determine if they should be amended or terminated because of ecological, economic and environmental reasons. The government will review the future of defunct and idle wind turbines and issue a report that require their removal. Trump also ordered that the Secretary of the Interior impose a temporary moratorium on the Lava Ridge wind project, which is being developed by Magic Valley Energy in the state of Idaho. It would have up to 400 turbines and produce more than 1GW. Magic Valley Energy is a subsidiary of LS Power. Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows wind turbines. Image by Jon Santa Cruz/Shutterstock)
23-Jan-2025
US HB Fuller to shut down one-third of plants worldwide
HOUSTON (ICIS)–HB Fuller plans to shut down nearly one-third of its plants globally and drastically reduce the number of warehouses it has in North America, the US-based adhesives producer said on Wednesday. When HB Fuller completes the shutdowns in its fiscal year of 2030, it will have 55 plants globally, down from 82, the company said. By the end of 2027, HB Fuller will have 10 warehouses in North America, down from 55. HB Fuller expects to cut annual pre-tax costs by $75 million/year by the time it completes the shutdowns. The company expects to spend $150 million over the next five years to shut down the sites. “Our manufacturing footprint consolidation, coupled with our planning and logistics reorganization, are important steps in our strategic plan to achieve an EBITDA margin consistently greater than 20%," said Celeste Mastin, CEO. "These actions will not only reduce costs through improved capacity utilization, they will also enable us to better serve our customers and reduce future capital expenditure requirements.” As an adhesives producer, HB Fuller's raw materials include tackifying resins, polymers, synthetic rubber, plasticizers, and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM).
15-Jan-2025
Seasonal demand lull for US PET expected to end in March
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Bottle-grade US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) demand is currently in a seasonal lull and is expected to continue that way through the end of January and into February. However, demand is expected to pick up in March with healthy orders already for the month, according to market participants. Typically, demand picks up ahead of peak season which runs from Memorial Day at the end of May to Labor Day at the beginning of September, but in recent years, demand has been slow to pick up before the beginning of peak season. Historically, an increase in temperatures pushes consumers to purchase more bottled beverages. PET resins can be broadly classified into bottle, fibre or film grade, named according to the downstream applications. Bottle grade resin is the most commonly traded form of PET resin and it is used in bottle and container packaging through blow molding and thermoforming. Fibre grade resin goes into making polyester fibre, while film grade resin is used in electrical and flexible packaging applications. PET can be compounded with glass fibre for the production of engineering plastics. DAK Americas, Indorama, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation and Far Eastern New Century (FENC) are PET producers in the US.
13-Jan-2025
Summary of 2025 Americas Outlook Stories
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030 For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PE demand could finally improve from Q2 onwards Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand should start slowly in 2025, but it could take a decisive turn for the better from Q2 onwards. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PP supply to remain long amid squeezed margins Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of 2025, with producers’ margins likely to remain squeezed. OUTLOOK ’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in 2025, giving chemicals a shot at recovery For all the talk about a soft landing for the US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than 2% for the fifth consecutive year as the labor market remains healthy and consumer spending resilient. OUTLOOK '25: US NGL demand to rebound moderately Though demand for US natural gas liquids (NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025 due to a general inventory glut, various industry and environmental conditions have feedstocks poised for a moderate demand rebound in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will drive US ethylene market entering new year Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene market heading into 2025 as it enters an unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as 10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going down for planned maintenance during Q1 and Q2. OUTLOOK '25: US BD poised for demand, export growth as production stabilizes, grows US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at the start of 2025 as outages which limited production in 2024 are resolved, while both exports and demand are expected to grow in the new year. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PE to see both demand extremes between high cost food-grade PCR and low cost PIR US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets continue to see extreme disparity between sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive grades of both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is expected to persist into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US PP navigating mediocre growth and oversupply US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be relatively less volatile in 2025, following a year where prices changed every month. Higher propylene inventory levels and improved supply expected to stabilize supply/demand dynamics. OUTLOOK '25: US ACN demand weakness to continue amid oversupply The three-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffs Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. OUTLOOK '25: Lackluster US aromatics demand, rising inventories pressure benzene and toluene After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have declined through the latter half of the year, due to soft derivative demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing weak demand, overcapacity The US styrene market enters the new year facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low operating rates. With a light maintenance season ahead, the market’s fate will be driven largely by derivative demand, which continues to face challenging headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US PS, EPS demand to remain soft Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain soft into the next year with weak downstream markets, polymer recycling regulations and overall expectations of a smaller growth in the economy for 2025 compared with 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Ample LatAm PS supply meets poor demand The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the back of weak demand across the region combined with plentiful supply. OUTLOOK '25: US PET demand expected higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain risks Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) should increase in 2025 if lower inflation and interest rates drive consumption with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year, but the possibilities of a trade war or supply disruption in upstream purified terephthalate acid (PTA) remain concerns. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PET prices pressured by economic challenges, tariff shifts Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Latin America are expected to soften in H1 2025, driven by changes in import tariffs, lower Asia prices and easing freight rates. OUTLOOK '25: US BDO demand to strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy, tariffs may be headwinds US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled inflation and lower interest rates, but possible tariffs and changes to electric vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US caustic soda trajectory to be impacted by PVC length, tariffs The US caustic soda market in the latter half of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on the chlorine side of the molecule. OUTLOOK '25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challenges The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. The confluence of these factors points to a challenging landscape for producers as they navigate both domestic and international market pressures. OUTLOOK '25: Latin America PVC market faces challenges from tariffs and instability in H1 Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due to various regional challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US soda ash facing subdued demand US soda ash is facing subdued demand going into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PET expects strong beverage demand amid international risk Though the build up to 2025 has been tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both optimism and distrust that the year will keep to its original promise. OUTLOOK '25: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction Demand declines in US nylon markets which started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2 2025. Demand was weak in multiple application sectors including automotive, industrial, textiles, electrical and electronics. The only application sectors that performed well were packaging and medical. OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demand US phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered. OUTLOOK '25: US MMA anticipating new supply in new year US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics amid heightened volatility going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US ABS, PC look to remain pressured with weakened markets Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024 with industries like automotive, household appliances and housing markets not expecting to see increases. OUTLOOK '25: US polyurethanes brace for Asia overcapacity and US weak demand The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU) products in the US is marked by the expectation of a very slow economic recovery, constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and polyols built in Asia, possible labor strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing issues with the Red Sea’s route. OUTLOOK '25: US PG, UPR face pressure from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand boost remains While recent sharp declines in propylene have led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG) in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been moderated by buyer interest in winter applications. OUTLOOK '25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: US PA remains sufficiently supplied even with capacity reduction US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a major domestic producer. Supply is expected to be sufficient to meet current demand levels, but any future demand improvement is likely to require support from increased imports. OUTLOOK '25: US MA facing muted demand expectations US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered expectations for a rebound in demand going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant closure US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the first half of 2025 with price movements tracking upstream propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market next year is the decision by Shell to shutter its production facility in the Netherlands in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK '25: US melamine to see consequences from US antidumping ruling The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14 February 2024 against melamine imports from Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an investigation from the United States International Trade Commission (US ITC) that is slated to impact the melamine industry at large in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. OUTLOOK '25: US base oils seek to manage new normal amid oversupply, demand deterioration Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand is likely to persist into a third year — this year with less optimism for significant domestic demand recovery in automotive and headwinds from additional supply entering the global marketplace. OUTLOOK '25: Squeezed import margins leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a sharp increase in feedstock costs across the oil palm complex over the last quarter and sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the wider market. OUTLOOK '25: US H1 glycerine markets to remain relatively tight amid squeezed biodiesel margins, import bottlenecks US H1 glycerine markets are expected to remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME) production in Q1 stemming from pending changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives against the backdrop of sustained import logistics bottlenecks create short-term supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine supplies. OUTLOOK '25: US epoxy resins grappling with duty, logistics, demand issues US epoxy resins players are trying to formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of duty investigations and guarded sentiment on demand. OUTLOOK '25: US oxo-alcohols, acrylates, plasticizers see falling feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes potential tariffs Following declines in feedstock prices in the autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols, acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face demand headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US etac supply concerns emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more stable but feedstock costs fall After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate (butac) and some glycol ethers have led to volatility in US spot and contract prices in the latter half of the year. While notable declines in upstream costs have not been seen in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on material produced in Mexico may impact domestic availability in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Brazil ethanol production strong; market watches forex, Combustivel do Futuro, RenovaBio The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust domestic production and evolving global energy policies. As Brazil continues to position itself as one of the leaders in renewable energy, initiatives like Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set to play a crucial role in driving growth. OUTLOOK '25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market. OUTLOOK '25: Gradual demand recovery anticipated for US TiO2 by H2 North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2 2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy.
13-Jan-2025
Europe Outlook Stories 2025 Summary
LONDIN (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Europe Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. 2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY OUTLOOK ’25: Global fertilizer sector braced for a tricky start to 2025 The global fertilizer sector is bracing itself for a bumpy ride moving into 2025 as it starts the year with high operating costs and struggling grain markets, making affordability for farmers and growers a key concern. OUTLOOK ‘25: New production capacity expected to drive the ammonia market in 2025 Ammonia players are expecting more supply to come onstream in 2025 which could support a subdued market. OUTLOOK ‘25: Refining constraints, Dangote disruption, cracker closures to shake Europe naphtha market After a tumultuous 2024, the outlook for the naphtha and gasoline markets in 2025 reflects a complex interplay of supply dynamics, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical factors. OUTLOOK: 2025 will be critical to Europe pyrolysis oil scalability Legislative uncertainty, long commissioning times and macroeconomic headwinds will continue to negatively weigh on European pyrolysis oil market growth and investment decisions in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Jet fuel demand poised for take-off despite oversupply worries Jet fuel demand in Europe is expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2025 despite a potential supply glut. However, much will depend on the airline industry's ability to navigate through economic and geopolitical turbulence and its commitment to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ethanol market could face supply challenges amid demand stability Mixed harvest yields in 2024 lead as one of several supply factors that is likely to shape the European ethanol market in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe biodiesel to face mixed supply, sluggish blending rates Evolving supply factors are set to meet relatively stable-to-low demand in the European biodiesel market for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: More of the same for Europe ethylene, propylene The best we can hope for is a re-run of 2024, European ethylene and propylene market players say, and there is very little expectation that Europe’s base case demand improves in any meaningful way in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ethanolamines market 2025 expectations subdued but braced for any supply shocks For 2025, similar underlying demand trends seen in the second half of 2024 are expected to carry across into the first half of 2025 with sentiment to remain broadly subdued. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PE faces triple threat of cost squeeze, overcapacity, longer supply chains European polyethylene (PE) markets face a triple whammy of high local costs, overcapacity globally and the risk of lengthening supply chains at a time when global trade flows are threatened by tariff wars in 2025 OUTLOOK ’25: Economic woes to continue stifling Turkish PE/PP demand Economic concerns continue to dampen demand expectations for Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) for the first half of 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Africa PE/PP players expect year of stagnation on oversupplied market Could 2025 finally be the year? A return to healthy polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) demand across Africa? OUTLOOK ’25: Positive view for European R-LDPE packaging grades, other sectors face tough start Demand for low and high melt flow index (MFI) grades of recycled low density polyethylene (R-LDPE) from the packaging sector will continue to grow in 2025 but construction-related grades may suffer due to low end-use market demand. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-HDPE packaging/non-packaging divide deepens The fragmentation between packaging and non-packaging grades of Europe recycled high density polyethylene (R-HDPE) is expected to continue in 2025, while consolidation risk across the market remains high – particularly for companies heavily exposed to the construction sector. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-PP increasingly fragmented by end-use demand Demand for Europe recycled polypropylene (R-PP) has radically diverged by the end-use market across 2024, and this is expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PP players eye pain points from old plants, tariff threats and limp manufacturing 2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different for Europe's polypropylene (PP) market. OUTLOOK '25: Europe Mixed plastic waste demand remains driven by mechanical recycling in 2025 Europe mixed plastic waste demand will remain weak for as long as overall industrial production remains limited by macroeconomic headwinds. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ACN set for another year of confined demand Downstream demand constraints brought on by geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges are anticipated to persist into 2025 for Europe's acrylonitrile (ACN) market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BDO demand pessimism to continue under the gloom of rising capacities in China There is a growing sense of apathy among players in the European butanediol (BDO) market when it comes to discussing demand hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations of an uptick and there is a prevalence of worry ahead of growing capacity in China in an already oversupplied market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe SBR demand overshadowed by automotive challenges European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand could lift slightly in January on restocking activity, but there are still longer-term concerns over the timeline for recovery of the automotive industry. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ABS and SAN demand to stay weak, imports unclear as ABS ADD investigation begins Demand has been mostly weak throughout 2024 in the Europe acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) markets, as downstream sectors have continued to be impacted by ongoing pressures, and similar is expected to continue into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe OX market to see little demand recovery despite lower interest rates The European orthoxylene (OX) market is gearing up for 2025 with the expectation of stable-to-slightly firmer downstream demand, in particular from the second quarter onwards. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PX demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid downstream rationalizations, imports Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is expected to continue in the first half of 2025 due to the rationalization of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in the region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe CX, capro markets face stable, low demand in 2025 The European cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam (capro) markets face broadly stable but overall weak demand in 2025, as a lack of optimism in key downstream sectors and ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions hit sentiment. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MX consumption to remain subdued Downstream requirements for mixed xylenes (MX) in Europe was limited in 2024 and there are similar expectations for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe styrene market squeezed as imports climb, demand feeble The European styrene market is expected to face increased competition and complexity in 2025, requiring players to navigate fragile domestic supply, a bearish and uncertain demand outlook, and rising import volumes. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PS, EPS demand mostly unchanging, potential PS import competition Throughout 2024, the Europe polystyrene (PS) market has faced stable demand at a low level, and expandable polystyrene (EPS) demand has been very weak, as ongoing pressures have continued to impact downstream activity in both markets, and 2025 could be similar. OUTLOOK '25: Europe benzene market limps into 2025 as supply surplus, demand uncertainty prevails The Europe benzene market is expected to see generally sufficient supply in the first half of 2025, with tightness likely only in the Mediterranean region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe toluene supply conditions to be in better shape than demand Consumption of toluene in Europe ended up limited in 2024 with supply in relatively in good condition, with similar views for 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PET/PTA markets hang by a thread in battle to survive The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain in Europe remains in survival mode as consumption is negatively affected by macroeconomics, while costs and logistics remain challenging. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe R-PET hopes for better year but challenges remain Participants across the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market are hoping for better demand from Q1 2025 after the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) comes into force in January, but cheap PET, imports of R-PET flake and pellet, and unpredictable consumer spending all pose potential problems. OUTLOOK ’25: European MEG supply more limited at end Q1, demand expectations bearish European monethylene glycol (MEG) supply could be more balanced at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second on turnarounds, but general concerns surrounding oversupply and slow demand continue to dampen expectations of a sustained market recovery. OUTLOOK '25: Low but steady demand expected in Europe nylon market Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face ongoing low but overall stable demand in 2025, as key downstream markets are in peril from persistently challenging macroeconomic conditions and low end-buyer demand. OUTLOOK 25’: PVC demand may return to growth but unlikely to offset overcapacity The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in Europe is likely to see a modest recovery in 2025 after demand weakness in 2024, but this will be offset by excess global capacity and low utilization rates at existing plants. OUTLOOK 25’: Last caustic soda producer to sit down is out 2025 is likely to resemble a high-stakes game of musical chairs for European chlor-alkali producers. OUTLOOK '25: Ample supply for Europe acetic acid and VAM despite import constraints, outages Weak demand was the most significant influence on European acetic acid and derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) conditions throughout 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe AA bracing for ‘more of the same’ for 2025 The Europe acrylic acid (AA) market is bracing itself for “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 set to roll into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe acrylate esters bracing for continued challenges in 2025 The Europe acrylate ester market is bracing for the challenges of 2024 to continue into 2025, with added geopolitical and economic volatility. OUTLOOK '25: Europe MMA set to see 2024 challenges continue into 2025 The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) is bracing itself for the challenges seen in 2024 to continue into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing for stagnant market The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing. OUTLOOK '25: European phenol and acetone markets face demand stagnation and global capacity growth in 2025 Fresh global capacity, low domestic demand, logistics difficulties and volatile feedstocks will all challenge Europe's phenol and acetone markets in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: European refinery solvents to track feedstocks in 2025, demand trends unchanged In 2025, European refinery solvents markets will be pinned to the developments in upstream crude and energy sectors. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe methylene chloride consumption to remain stable in H1 Demand for methylene chloride (MEC) in Europe is projected to stay stable at a low level, as persistent challenges that plagued the market in 2024 are expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe EO demand expected to lift slightly in January European ethylene oxide (EO) 2025 discussions largely centred around stable-to-soft agreements, depending on starting point and account, at the end of 2024, even as demand is expected to increase in January. OUTLOOK ’25: Demand stagnates, capacity expands in Europe MPG, PO markets Players in the European mono propylene glycol (MPG) and upstream propylene oxide (PO) markets expect familiar challenges, including oversupply and weak demand, will persist well into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe polyols and isocyanates demand recovery handicapped by sluggish downstream markets The polyols and isocyanates market in Europe is finishing 2024 with lethargic consumption, with 2025 being held back by slow momentum from major end user sectors. OUTLOOK '25: Slow start to 2025 expected in Europe propylene glycol ethers market, no significant supply concerns A subdued start is anticipated in the European market for propylene glycol ethers in 2025. Price changes are expected to continue to be led by availability fluctuations with few anticipating much demand recovery in the first half of the year and potentially beyond. OUTLOOK '25: Europe butyl glycol ethers market set for lacklustre H1 2025, focus remains on availability The outlook for the European butyl glycol (BG) and butyl di-glycol (BdG) market is largely subdued heading into 2025. Despite a spate of planned maintenances scheduled for Q1, there is not significant supply concern in the main. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BPA market set to navigate various challenges The European bisphenol A (BPA) market is not likely to face an easy ride in terms of demand in 2025, with no sign of any recovery in key end sectors, a few lost outlets structurally and with competition from Asia likely to remain strong. OUTLOOK ’25: MA, PA demand weakness ongoing, H1 supply outlooks differ but Asian reliance growing European maleic anhydride (MA) and phthalic anhydride (PA) markets in Europe will face similar supply-demand dynamics in 2025 to those in 2024, with a challenging macroeconomic environment expected to continue crippling demand for most of the year and complex supply scenarios with difficult logistics continuing. OUTLOOK '25: Europe melamine still in survival mode amid poor demand, high production costs European melamine suppliers remain pressured by high production costs and low margins heading into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe IPA and MEK supply to remain ample despite import constraints, capacity consolidation The European isopropanol (IPA) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets were defined by muted consumption and ample availability for most of 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ECH supply rather than demand under the spotlight for 2025 Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply rather than demand is likely to be subject to more change in 2025, in view of Westlake’s ECH Pernis plant idling and possible adjusted trade flows in response to various trade defense cases and measures. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe fatty acids, alcohols to grapple with ongoing high feedstock costs in H1 European oleochemicals face another challenging year ahead, with squeezed fatty alcohol supply and improved palm-based fatty acids availability versus elevated feedstock costs. OUTLOOK '25: EU epoxy players on the cusp of a new normal, pending EU AD decision EU Epoxy market players are preparing for a new normal in 2025 and shifts in sourcing strategy, based on expected anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese and other Asian product, but the prospect of a recovery remains slim. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe paraffin wax market likely to see minimal demand recovery The forecast for European paraffin wax in 2025 is weak, particularly during the first half. The market is expected to face ongoing challenges like those experienced in 2024. OUTLOOK '25: EU ADD leverage on Chinese TiO2 imports dimmed by weak demand The final EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese TiO2 imports are unlikely to bring any domestic support into 2025, despite profitability struggles in the TiO2 industry, as the underlying demand outlook remains bleak. OUTLOOK ’25: Poland’s Azoty, Orlen face hard yards on journey back to health When in November Poland’s Grupa Azoty fairly leapt at the chance to move into the government-backed production of explosives, it served as a further confirmation of the deep hole Europe’s second largest fertilizer maker finds itself in.
13-Jan-2025
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