Naphtha

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Warmer waters in the Atlantic Basin could make record-setting hurricanes like Milton and Beryl more common, which strengthened rapidly to become major storms that caused significant damage. Most of the petrochemical and refining capacity of the US is along the Gulf of Mexico, making the plants vulnerable to the disruptions caused by more powerful hurricanes that could become more common in the future. Rising exports of energy, chemical feedstock and plastics from the US Gulf Coast have caused local hurricanes to have global consequences. If wind shear becomes more common, then it could offset some of the strengthening effects that warmer water will have on hurricane development. RECORD-SETTING HURRICANE SEASONWarm water is like rocket fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes, and that led to the rapid intensification of Milton, which strengthened from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in less than two days. By midday on Monday, the rapid strengthening of Milton placed it among the top three Atlantic hurricanes, behind only 2005's Hurricane Wilma and 2007's Hurricane Felix, said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at the meteorology company AccuWeather. Milton had set another record as the strongest hurricane to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, according to Levi Silvers, research scientist at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, which publishes regular hurricane forecasts. Milton was also the Gulf's strongest hurricane since Rita in 2005, Silvers said. Milton would weaken to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall on Wednesday night. AccuWeather estimates that Milton could cause more than $200 billion in damage and economic loss. Earlier on July 2, Beryl set its own record by becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin, beating the previous record holder by an astounding two weeks, DaSilva said. According to Silvers, Beryl also accumulated more cyclone energy than any other storm occurring before August. "Basically, it was the strongest early storm we have had by several measures." After forming in the Atlantic Beryl weakened after passing over Mexico's Yucatan peninsula before making landfall in Texas and disrupting operations at several petrochemical plants. AccuWeather estimated that total damage and economic loss caused by Beryl was $28 billion to $32 billion. Hurricane Helene set a record for the amount of available atmospheric moisture, also known as precipitable rain, according to AccuWeather. Such extreme amounts of moisture allowed Helene to carry it far inland, leading to rapidly rising river levels and flash flooding. AccuWeather estimates that Helene caused $225 billion to $250 billion in damage and economic loss in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. WARM WATER THREATSIf the planet continues to warm, one of the consequences would be elevated water temperatures. Warmer waters contributed to the strength and rapid intensification of these three hurricanes, DaSilva said. The danger is not just the surface temperature of the Atlantic but also something that meteorologists call ocean heat content, DaSilva said. Ocean heat content reflects water temperatures below the surface. A warmer planet will also heat up the atmosphere, allowing the air to hold more moisture. That would lead to more rainfall and greater risks of floods. "I am concerned that we are going to be seeing more episodes of rapid intensification," DaSilva said. "The tie between sea surface temperatures and rapid intensification – we are pretty confident about that." Silvers also expressed concern about the threat posed by elevated water temperatures. WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNKNOWN VARIABLEMeteorologists are less sure if wind shear could become more common in a warmer planet, DaSilva said. Wind shear usually discourages the formation of tropical weather. If wind shear does become more common, it could partially offset the effects of warmer water. In a world with more wind shear, it might not generate more hurricanes, but those that do form will strengthen rapidly into more powerful storms, DaSilva said. The length of the Atlantic hurricane season could also expand by starting sooner than the current June 1 date, DaSilva said. DaSilva doubts that the Atlantic season would last beyond its November 30 end date, because wind shear becomes more common during the final months of the year. Silvers, though, said it is difficult to determine if the timing of Atlantic storms will change in the future. "This season is a perfect example, with record breaking storms before and after the peak of the season, but almost nothing during the historical peak," Silvers said. MORE DISRUPTIONS FOR US, GLOBAL CHEMICALSMost of the petrochemical plants and refineries in the US are on the Gulf Coast, so more powerful hurricanes would leave them more vulnerable to damage and shutdowns. The US now exports significant amounts of polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and other chemicals. Hurricanes disrupt port operations, so those exports could be delayed, increasing the risk of global shortages. DISRUPTIONS TO WORLD'S CHEMICAL FEEDSTOCKSIn addition, the US is increasingly relying on exports to take away excess ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) produced from its oil fields. These petrochemical feedstocks are being imported by an increasing number of crackers and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, with GAIL (India) became the latest to announce plans to build an ethane cracker. Nearly all of the terminals that handle these exports of ethane and LPG are on the Gulf Coast, and all of the expansion projects are in the region. Hurricanes could disrupt operations at these terminals and interrupt the supply of these feedstocks to crackers and PDH units throughout the world. HURRICANES DISRUPT US LNG TERMINALSThe majority of US LNG capacity is on the Gulf Coast and its preponderance will only increase as the country starts up more terminals. This will have effects on US and global energy prices. Disruptions in global shipments could raise LNG costs. In the US, extended shutdowns of LNG terminals would increase supplies of natural gas, pushing prices lower for it and ethane. Lower ethane prices in the US could increase margins for ethylene derivatives. DISRUPTIONS TO US OIL EXPORTSThe Gulf Coast is a large exporter of oil, with major terminals in Corpus Christi, Houston and Nederland in Texas. In addition, the Gulf Coast is home to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the only deepwater crude port in the US. Companies are planning more offshore ports. Enterprise Products received a deepwater port license for its Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), which could load 2 million bbl/day of crude oil. If built, it would be built 30 nautical miles off the Texas coast. In 2020, Phillips 66 and Trafigura Group announced that they created a 50/50 joint venture called Bluewater Texas Terminal to develop an offshore deepwater oil port 21 nautical miles east of the port of Corpus Christi. Energy Transfer is proposing its Blue Marlin Offshore Port, which could load up to one very large crude carrier (VLCC) per day. Texas GulfLink, a subsidiary of Sentinal Midstream, is developing a deepwater oil terminal off the Gulf Coast. If built, these offshore oil ports would be vulnerable to hurricanes, along with the onshore terminals on the Gulf Coast. That could restrict global oil supplies and push prices higher. Higher prices would increase costs for crackers that use naphtha as a feedstock. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows damage caused by Hurricane Milton. Image by Chris Urso/Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

10-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Petrochemical trades in Asia may pick up mid-week with as Chinese markets re-open after a week-long holiday, but industry players remained bearish on demand recovery prospects. Trades subdued during 1-7 October China holidays Crude, naphtha prices rise amid geopolitical tensions China to announce more economic policies Crude gains on escalating Middle East tensions, weather-related disruptions in northeast Asia and the monsoon season in India were all factors that will affect trading this week. In late Asian trade, Brent crude breached $79/barrel, while US crude was trading at above $75/barrel, on growing fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East a year since the Israel-Hamas war began. Demand concerns, particularly in China, however, continue to cap gains. Prices of naphtha – the main petrochemical feedstock in Asia – typically track gains in upstream crude market. At noon, naphtha prices stood at $700/tonne CFR (cost & freight) Japan. With firm naphtha prices, production margins of petrochemical producers get squeezed. In the propylene and polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) markets, players were awaiting clearer direction from China, whose players will return to the market on 8 October. For acetic acid, import demand from India slowed down as the seasonal monsoon in the country, which should have ended in late September, extended its stay and is expected to affect restocking ahead of Diwali holiday in end-October/early November. Diwali is the Hindu Festival of Light and is a major holiday in India. In Taiwan, Typhoon Krathon directly hit its petrochemical hub of Kaohsiung last week, causing power outages that affected plant operations at the site, with some units likely to be shut for days. In the case of Taiwan VCM (TVCM)’s 450,000 tonne/year vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) plant, it sustained equipment damage and may have to be down for 7-10 days, sources said. The consequent reduction is supply of some petrochemicals, however, will likely have a minimal impact on markets as demand remains largely weak. EYES ON CHINA Market players are expecting more economic measures from China post-holiday, which will follow a slew of policy announcements days before its week-long National Day celebration. China’s State Council announced on 6 October that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning body, will hold a press briefing on 8 October. In its announcement, the State Council referred to “systematically implementing a package of incremental policies to solidly promote economic growth, structural optimisation and sustained momentum of development”. China’s recent economic stimulus package have boosted investor sentiment, mainly in the equities markets, but there were doubts over any near-term lift to economic activity. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Seng Li Peng, Jonathan Chou, Helen Lee, Shannen Ng and Hwee Hwee Tan

07-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Underlying demand for European recycled agglomerates has increased throughout 2024, and is expected to rise sharply as pyrolysis-based chemical recycling scales. The majority of recycled polyolefin agglomerates are currently used by mechanical recyclers. Nevertheless, pyrolysis based chemical recyclers are increasingly targeting agglomerates as a feedstock. While chemical recycling can process waste types that it would be difficult or impossible for mechanical recyclers to use, though, it is a myth that there is no link between the input waste quality and output quality of chemical recyclers, and that chemical recyclers can use any form of waste. Take pyrolysis-based chemical recycling as an example. Pyrolysis-based plants targeting mixed plastic waste as feedstock – with a focus on polyolefins – currently account for ~60% of all operating chemical recycling capacity in Europe according to ICIS Recycling Supply Tracker – Chemical. Typically, pyrolysis-based processes aim to limit chlorine content in bales- due to corrosion risks –  polyethylene terephthalate (PET) content in bales – because it doesn’t pyrolyse and it creates oxygenation – nylon and flame retardants – which also oxygenates the process. They also typically aim to minimise moisture content, because loose water molecules in the reactor can cause changes to pressure values. The production of pyrolysis oil requires an inert atmosphere (i.e. heating in the absence of oxygen). The quality of input waste is one of the largest dictators of output quality across pyrolysis oil grades, dictating the type of impurities and boiling point. Boiling point, chlorine, sulphur, fluorine, nitrogen and oxygen contents are among the key determiners of pyrolysis oil prices – with an average spread of €1,150/tonne currently being seen between the lowest value (tyre-derived) and highest value (naphtha substitute) grades of pyrolysis oil that ICIS prices. Any sorting that needs to be done to remove the presence of these materials in the input bale adds additional cost and slows throughput. Pyrolysis oil can be – and often is – run through an upgrader or purifier to enhance its properties, but the quality of input waste has an impact both on yield and quality – and, therefore, profitability. This is one of the reasons the environmental impact of pyrolysis oil remains unclear and varies from producer to producer. While pyrolysis oil producers continue to test with a wide-range of waste input qualities, many producers are turning to agglomerations of polyolefins, and it is expected to become a leading feedstock for pyrolysis-based chemical recycling in the mid-term. This is in response to some of the challenges chemical recyclers have found with pre-treatment and sorting on site. This is particularly connected to the need to adapt processes continuously to account for continually shifting feedstock mixes. Pre-treating and sorting at waste manager level creates economies of scale and prevents the slowdown in throughput sometimes associated with chemical recyclers sorting on site. The use of agglomerates helps pyrolysis oil producers: Limit impurities such as sulphur, fluoride, oxygen, chlorine and nitrogen in finished pyrolysis oil – which typically results in a higher realizable price for that pyrolysis oil, and greater feasibility for use in a cracker Enable placing feedstock straight into the reactor and thereby save on capital expenditure Ensure a more consistent feedstock, with pre-treatment handled at waste managers which benefit from economies of scale and long-standing technical know-how Avoid slowing throughput and the expense of onsite sorting Avoid degradation and allow players to stockpile material ahead of plant scale-ups Target specific waste input mixed (although this can result in additional cost premiums) In response to the growing interest in recycled polyolefin agglomerates, ICIS has launched a new recycled agglomerates price index as part of its mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil (Europe) pricing service. The new index is for spot prices of agglomerated forms of mixed polyolefin material containing at least 95% polyolefin content and a maximum moisture content of 3%. It is assessed weekly on an ex-works Europe basis. The mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil (Europe) pricing service also offers pricing for mixed polyolefin bales, high plastic content refuse derived fuel (RDF) bales, reject unsorted plastic waste bales from municipal recover facilities (MRFs), and 3 spot price series for pyrolysis oil (tyre derived, non-upgraded, and naphtha substitute). For more information on these new series, or to share feedback, please contact Mark Victory at mark.victory@icis.com.

02-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. We now have 32 months of trade and pricing data since the end of the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle and so it is worth taking stock of what the numbers are telling us. And as we have 32 months of information to draw on since the end of the Supercycle, which is from January 2022 until August 2024, it is worth making like-for-like comparisons with the 32-month period immediately before the end of the Supercycle – May 2019 until December 2021. Focusing just on polypropylene (PP) with the story the same in many other products: South Korea and Taiwan saw declines in PP sales turnover in China of $1.1 billion and $694 million respectively when this two 3-month periods are compared. Despite its feedstock advantages, Saudi Arabia saw its turnover fall by $681m followed by Singapore at $633m and Thailand at $613 million . Losses across China’s top ten trading partners totalled $4.6bn. The only winner was, not surprisingly, the Russian Federation with a turnover gain of $102 million. Another symptom of a chronically oversupplied market has been a collapse in margins as another chart in today’s post illustrates: In May 2019-December, the average of both naphtha and PDH-based PP margins was $281/tonne, but this fell to just $12/tonne in January 2022-September 2024. And this latter period has involved many weeks of negative margins. A pivotal turning point in global chemicals markets, the most important since 1992, was the Evergrande Moment. And yet far are too few references to this essential context. China’s debts and its demographics told us from as early as 2011 that a steep fall in economic growth had to happen. We also knew from 2014 onwards, thanks to a shift in government policy, that much-greater chemicals self-sufficiency was on the way. This gave producers plenty of time to build strategies that reduced their dependence on China. But how many companies took note of what the demographic and debt trends were telling us? How many took note of the threat to China’s exports from 2018 onwards as the geopolitical environment deteriorated? My suspicion is that far too few companies were ready for the changes now well underway, which are reflected in the above demand, supply, sales turnover and margins data. This was because people chose to believe misleading nonsense about the “rise of China’s middle class” when the numbers on China’s per capita incomes, the country’s birthrate and the rise in its debts exposed the myth. The chemicals industry is science and data driven except, seemingly, in one critical area:  Macroeconomics. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

02-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Last week’s launch of a new “stimulus bazooka” by the Chinese government might lead to a rally in chemicals and polymer pricing. But so what if prices go up over the next few weeks? The price rises will be of little long-term consequence unless we see big shifts in spreads and margins in the key polyethylene (PE) market. Between January 2014 and December 2021, northeast Asia integrated variable cost naphtha-based PE margins averaged $451/tonne; from January 2022 until the third week of September, they averaged just $2/tonne. In late 2019/early 2020, northeast Asia PE margins briefly turned negative as oversupply increased. But the full downturn was delayed by reduced feedstock availability and a surge in PE demand resulting from the pandemic. Then came the Evergrande Moment Average CFR China PE price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs are at just $280/tonne so far this year, the lowest since our price assessments began in 1993. We have seen three consecutive years of new record-low spreads. It is of course no coincidence that the three years have followed the Evergrande Moment. HDPE spreads would have to rebound by 129%, LDPE spreads by 48% and LLDPE spreads by 88% to see a return to the old market conditions. Average PE spreads would thus have to rise by 80%. Follow the ICIS PE spread and margin data every week to discover whether a recovery is really happening in China. My view, as you know, is that China’s economy faces deep long-term challenges resulting from the end of the real-estate bubble and an ageing population. The extent to which it can maintain its dominant role in global exports is also in question because of a much more difficult geopolitical environment. I don’t believe that any amount of likely economic stimulus in China (there are political and economic limitations on stimulus) can fully address these challenges. It is what it is. We need to get used to a Chinese chemicals market where demand growth for some products might even go negative. You may disagree. But what we can and should agree on is the story that’s been consistently told by PE spreads and margins since January 2022. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

30-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India is expected be a major driver of global long-term oil demand growth through to 2050, alongside the Middle East and Africa, OPEC said in a report. Global oil demand to reach 120.1 million barrels/day in 2050 Petrochemical, road transportation sectors to be key demand drivers Annual average world GDP growth of 2.9% projected for 2023-2050 These regions were identified as the “key sources of incremental [oil] demand in the coming years”, OPEC said in its 2024 World Oil Outlook report released on 24 September. “India alone will add 8 million barrels/day to its oil demand during the forecast period [2023-2050].” OPEC comprises 13 oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia, which is the world’s biggest crude oil exporter. Global oil demand is expected to increase by almost 18 million barrels/day, or by 17.5%, from 102.2 million barrels/day in 2023 to 120.1 million barrels/day in 2050. While non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demand is projected to increase by 28 million barrels/day between 2023 and 2050, OECD demand is set to witness a decline. OECD refers to a group of 38 highly industrialized economies. The strong projected demand growth in the petrochemical sector, especially in Asia, will raise oil demand from naphtha production by 2.8 million barrels/day by 2050. The largest incremental demand during the forecast period is projected for the petrochemicals, road transportation and aviation sectors. Oil demand in these sectors in the long term is set to increase by 4.9 million barrels/day; 4.6 million barrels/day; and 4.2 million barrels/day, respectively. “Demand projections in the road transportation sector indicate strong growth over the current decade before stabilizing at levels above 50 million barrels/day for the rest of the forecast period,” OPEC said. “By then, the penetration of EVs [electric vehicles] is set to increasingly play a role.” The global vehicle fleet is projected to surge by about 71% from 1.7 billion in 2023 to 2.9 billion in 2050 with the fastest growth expected in the EVs segment. As for refined products, strong long-term demand growth is expected for ethane/liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). “The larger part of this demand growth relates to the use of ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, mainly in OECD Americas and the Middle East,” OPEC added. GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH REMAINS ROBUST Global GDP is projected by OPEC to grow at an average rate of 2.9% per year between 2023 and 2050. Non-OECD countries are set to lead this growth, expanding at an annual rate of 3.7%, while OECD nations will experience more modest annual growth at 1.6%. As a result, in absolute terms the global economy is expected to more than double in size from $165 trillion in 2023 to $358 trillion in 2050. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Crude oil tanker Njord DF, 250m length, 44m height, flag Greece, Baltic Sea, 31 August 2024 (Olaf Krüger/imageBROKER/Shutterstock)

25-Sep-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Mexican government has amended for the third time the decree regulating import and export permit requirements for several chemicals as well as fuel products and re-opened the door for 20-year permits. Among others, there were amendments published for permits to import key building blocks within the petrochemical industry, such as naphtha; products within the aromatics chain such as benzene and toluene; or within olefins such as ethylene, propylene and butadiene (BD). Within fuels, import permits for jet kerosene or biodiesel were amended, as well as those for feedstocks such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE). Read the list of products in the decree’s annexes (see here, in Spanish). The government said it was aiming to simplify the procedures by providing greater legal certainty and clarity to interested parties, seeking to facilitate compliance with obligations by considering the type of merchandise, its use, and the quantities requested. These import and export permits apply when the product is related to the energy industry or derives or is produced from hydrocarbons. For lubricants and additives, recent regulatory amendments have made it necessary to obtain a Permit for the import of such products, when classified under certain specific tariff codes. Some of the updates referred to the term of the permits for import and export, an aspect in which the government is backtracking its earlier decision from 2020 to withdraw 20-year permits existent at the time, according to a note to customers by the Mexican office of law firm Holland & Knight. “Permits are granted for different validity periods that vary based on the nature of the merchandise and its intended use. For merchandise intended for sporting events and research trials, both for import and export, the validity is sixty days. Standard permits for one year and five years may also be requested,” said Gabriel Ruiz, partner at the law firm. “Furthermore, permits for export may be granted for periods exceeding five to twenty years, provided the need for such permits is justified in the interest of social and economic benefit, subject to approval by the Ministry of Energy (SENER).” The decree also establishes specific requirements for obtaining prior import and export permits, differentiating the requirements based on the validity of each type of permit. Regarding renewals, permits granted for one year may be renewed up to two times for the same validity, while five-year permits may be renewed once for the same duration. For permits exceeding five years intended for export, the renewal will be singular and may extend up to half of the original validity; in the case of twenty-year permits, the renewal will be limited to the same proportion. The new rules published on 18 September came to amend a decree originally issued in December 2020, later amended in November 2022 and November 2023. These amendments were part of wider changes included in the Energy Reform passed in 2013, which sought to liberalize Mexico’s energy sector. The current Administration’s approach, however, has been keeping the state-owned energy companies – crude major Pemex or utility CFE are two of them – at the center of the country’s energy landscape. Front page picture source: Shutterstock

24-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 20 September 2024. India LAB market mired in soft demand, ample supply By Clive Ong 20-Sep-24 13:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market remains mired in tepid demand and ample availability of spot cargoes. Weak demand pick-up in China weighs on Asia petrochemicals By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Sep-24 14:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand in bellwether market China has not picked up as expected ahead of its week-long holiday in October, further dimming recovery prospects for Asia’s petrochemical markets for the rest of year. India's BPA import price nears five-month low amid ample supply By Li Peng Seng 18-Sep-24 10:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India's bisphenol A (BPA) import prices on 13 September extended their downward trend for the sixth straight week, weighed down by abundant supplies, slow demand and easing ocean freight rates. INSIGHT: Asia needs carbon credits, financing to accelerate energy transition By Bee Lin Chow 17-Sep-24 17:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian countries need high integrity carbon credits and credible financing mechanisms to keep pace with their energy transition commitments in line with the Paris Agreement. Thai SCG to run Vietnam petrochemical complex on US ethane By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Sep-24 13:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai conglomerate Siam Cement Group (SCG) plans to use ethane imported from the US as feedstock for its Long Son Petrochemical (LSP) complex in Vietnam to boost the project’s long-term competitiveness. INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical price pressure continues in September on weaker crude pricing By Jimmy Zhang 19-Sep-24 18:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A significant portion of Asia petrochemical prices are expected to continue decreasing in September, driven largely by the decline in crude values during the month, with market sentiment bearish. Asia naphtha market may firm on supply constraints By Li Peng Seng 16-Sep-24 12:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's naphtha market has held steady over the past week, but could strengthen in the short term due to fewer cracker maintenance and lower-than-usual arbitrage cargo arrivals expected from the west in October.

23-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai conglomerate Siam Cement Group (SCG) plans to use ethane imported from the US as feedstock for its Long Son Petrochemical (LSP) complex in Vietnam to boost the project’s long-term competitiveness. Storage, supporting facilities for ethane to be built on site Ethane targeted as major feedstock for LSP cracker; C2 market “turbulence” expected LSP commercial operations start October SCG is in talks with a contractor for the new ethane storage project, with construction of the facilities expected to take about three years to complete, the company said in roadshow presentation on 16 September. “The site is equipped with a central utility system, ready for the installation of ethane gas storage tanks and pipelines,” the company said in a separate statement on 16 September. SCG has yet to finalize the capital expenditure for the project, and the prospective US ethane supplier for LSP was not disclosed. The $5.4bn LSP project in Ba Ria-Vung Tao province is Vietnam’s first integrated petrochemical complex and is 100%-owned by Thai conglomerate SCG. The mixed-feed cracker at the site currently uses propane and naphtha feedstocks imported from Qatar under a long-term supply deal. The cracker can produce 950,000 tonnes/year of ethylene; 400,000 tonnes/year of propylene; and 100,000 tonnes/year of butadiene (BD). SCG said that LSP is already operating flexible gas cracker which can use a variety of feedstocks, including ethane, propane, and naphtha. Ethane imported from the US is currently cheaper by $200-400/tonne than existing feedstock, SCG said, noting that the average price of ethane has been around 40% lower than that of naphtha and propane over the past three years. The feedstock derived from shale gas also provides greater price stability as it is linked to US natural gas prices, unlike naphtha, which is influenced by oil price fluctuations. FEEDSTOCK DIVERSIFICATION The enhancement to LSP's feedstock flexibility is part of SCG's efforts to bolster its chemicals business in the face of global oversupply, low demand and oil price volatility, SCG said. For ethylene (C2), the company expects "future turbulence" in the market, especially in 2027-2028 amid a wave of new global cracker additions, especially in China. Global ethylene supply is projected by SCG to grow at a slower average rate of around 3-4% in 2025-2030, compared with 5% in 2019-2024. China will comprise around 53% of new ethylene supply additions in 2025-2030, it noted. SCG expects an "extended chemicals trough with low margin" in 2025-2030 amid continued naphtha price volatility. “The current global situation and the future outlook over the next 2-5 years will be marked by increased volatility,” SCG CEO and president Thammasak Sethaudom said on 16 September. “All SCG businesses are moving forward with strategies that align with these dynamics while also reducing carbon dioxide emissions…to ensure long-term competitiveness.” LSP COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS START OCTOBER The LSP complex has completed performance test runs in September and is on track to start commercial operations next month, according to SCG. Its utilization rate following start-up will be "determined by global demand dynamics", it said. LSP’s downstream plants include a 500,000 tonne/year high density polyethylene (HDPE) unit; a linear low density PE (LLDPE) unit of the same capacity; and a 400,000 tonne/year polypropylene (PP) unit. The cracker had an outage in February due to a technical issue and resumed normal operations in August. It had declared a force majeure in February due to issues at the cracker that also shut its downstream PE and PP units. Credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings in a note on 17 September said that it expects LSP to ramp up its utilization rate to 70-80% in 2025, “supported by its cost competitiveness versus imports and the flexibility to use both propane and naphtha as feedstock”. Imports currently fulfil nearly all of Vietnam's petrochemical requirements. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail photo: Aerial view of SCG's Long Son Petrochemical Complex in Vietnam (Source: SCG)

19-Sep-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half point to 4.75-5.00% on Wednesday, and the central bank could lower it by an additional half point by the end of the year. The following table summarizes the current and past forecasts for rates, inflation and GDP by members of the Federal Reserve. 2024 2025 2026 Fed funds 4.4% 3.4% 2.9% June forecast 5.1% 4.1% 3.1% GDP 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% June forecast 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% Core PCE Inflation 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% June forecast 2.8% 2.3% 2.0% Source: Fed If the forecasts hold true, the US economy will achieve a soft landing, with inflation falling to the Fed's long-term goal of 2% without triggering a recession. FED NOTES WEAKER JOB MARKET, INFLATIONThe Fed said that the job market had slowed since the last time it voted on rates at the end of July. Inflation has moved closer to the Fed's goal but remains somewhat elevated. Unlike its previous statement in July, the Fed said it "has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%". In addition, the Fed stressed its commitment to support maximum employment. Its last statement in July lacked such a statement. CHEMS WILL WAIT BEFORE RATES TRIGGER RECOVERY IN DURABLESChemical producers will have to wait before lower rates cause a recovery for demand in durable goods and housing. Both are key end markets for polymers such as polypropylene (PP), nylon, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) as well as chemicals used to make polyurethanes, such as isocyanates, polyols and propylene oxide (PO). Huntsman said the lag is typically about two quarters. Ultimately, mortgage rates will need to approach 5% before markets for homes and durable goods can recover, according to Dow. Higher rates had made housing and durable goods like furniture and appliances less affordable. Because fewer consumers are buying homes and moving, they are purchasing fewer durable goods. LOWER RATES TEND TO BOOST OIL, CHEM PRICESTypically, prices for oil and other dollar-denominated commodities tend to rise as US interest rates fall. A rise in oil prices typically causes those for petrochemicals to increase. Margins for US-based producers benefit from higher oil prices because their plants predominantly rely on gas-based feedstock. By contrast, much of the world relies on oil-based naphtha, giving US producers a cost advantage. FIRST CUT IN MORE THAN FOUR YEARSThe last time the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates was in March 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns, government stimulus and recovery caused a surge in inflation, which led the Federal Reserve to begin raising the benchmark rate two years later in what became the most aggressive tightening campaign in more than 40 years. The Fed stopped raising the rate in July 2023. A year later, inflation started showing signs of approaching the Fed's target of 2%. At the same time, the labor market began cooling off and returning to more normal levels. Focus article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows money. Image by ICIS.

18-Sep-2024