Base oils

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global hydrogen solutions provider Plug Power has announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Allied Green Ammonia (AGA) to supply electrolyzer capacity for a proposed ammonia facility in Australia. The terms call for up to 3 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity for AGA’s upcoming hydrogen to ammonia facility with the company stating that the green hydrogen produced by their electrolyzers help decarbonize the ammonia production process. AGA plans to establish a 2,500 tonne per day green ammonia operation with the proposed location at Gove Peninsula seen as being strategically placed to align with Asia trading partnerships. Following the MOU, Plug and AGA plan to enter an agreement to initiate a Basic Engineering and Design Package (BEDP) for the project. The BEDP is expected to advance mid-May of this year, with final investment decision planned for Q4 2025, with the progressive delivery of the 3GW electrolyzer supply slated to begin in Q1 2027. “Ammonia producers have recognized the substantial advantages of cost and carbon reduction through electrolysis-based hydrogen,” said Andy Marsh, Plug Power CEO. “We’re thrilled to sign this MOU and partner with AGA. Our expertise in constructing and operating large-scale hydrogen production facilities and our PEM electrolyzer manufacturing capability to support their 3GW project position us as the ideal partner for this endeavor.” AGA said this agreement is a critical first step and a testament to the alignment of the companies’ respective visions. “This agreement, in light of Plug’s unrivalled expertise and complementary technologies, is a strong vote of confidence in our capabilities and a significant milestone in the planned delivery of Allied Green’s facility, which will be one of the most energy efficient green hydrogen and green ammonia projects globally,” said Alfred Benedict, Allied Green Ammonia managing director.

03-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global average rates for shipping containers rose for the first time since January, workers at freight rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike, and the US regulator that oversees railroads finalized a rule allowing reciprocal switching, highlighting this week’s logistics roundup. CONTAINER RATES Shipping container rates have been rising steadily since December when attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in the Red Sea forced carriers to take the longer route around the tip of the African continent before leveling off last week. This week, the global average for 40-foot shipping containers rose by 1%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Shanghai to the US East Coast edged slightly higher, but rates from China to the West Coast edged slightly lower, as shown in the following chart. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said that the overall container market has settled into a new routine that avoids the Red Sea. “Though significant backlogs, congestion and equipment shortages seen during the first few weeks of the crisis have dissipated, adjustments have resulted in some moderate but ongoing disruptions,” Levine said in a weekly update. He said that even after falling drastically since the beginning of the year, prices remain well above normal and are likely to increase relative to this new floor as demand is set to increase for peak season. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID CHEMICAL TANKERS US liquid chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were unchanged this week. From the US Gulf (USG) to Asia, the market has been quieter this week as a holiday-shortened week has sidelined some key players. There have been only a few parcels quoted, which is placing downward pressure on freight rates for smaller lots. Larger base cargoes of monoethylene glycol (MEG), methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), and methanol have been popular chemicals on this route, keeping larger freight rates steady. From the USG to India, the market has been very quiet. PORT OF BALTIMORE Since the opening of a fourth channel into the Port of Baltimore, 171 commercial vessels have transited the waterway, including five of the vessels that were trapped inside the port after the containership Dali struck the Key Bridge, causing it to collapse, according to the Unified Command (UC). The MSC Passion III entered the port on 29 April, according to vesselfinder.com, making it the first container ship to enter the port since the accident. The closing of the port did not have a significant impact on the chemicals industry as chemicals make up only about 4% of total tonnage that moves through the port, according to data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The ACC said less than 1% of all chemicals involved in waterborne commerce, both domestic and trade volumes, pass through Baltimore. But a market participant in Ohio told ICIS previously that it is seeing delays in delivery times for imports as vessels originally destined to offload in Baltimore are getting re-routed to other ports. PANAMA CANAL Wait times for non-booked vessels ready for transit edged for higher both directions this week, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) vessel tracker and as shown in the following image. Wait times a week ago were 2.5 days for northbound traffic and 5.6 for southbound traffic. The PCA will increase the number of slots available for Panamax vessels to transit the waterway beginning 16 May and will add another slot for Neopanamax vessels on 1 June based on the present and projected water levels in Gatun Lake. RAILROADS Workers at freight rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike. A first work stoppage could occur as early as 22 May, if no new collective agreements are reached by then, officials at labor union Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) said in a televised announcement on 1 May. The rail carriers warned that a work stoppage would disrupt supply chains throughout North America and constrain trade between Canada and the US and Mexico. The two railroads account for the bulk of freight rail traffic in Canada. Meanwhile, chemical industry participants were largely supportive of a final rule adopted by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) on reciprocal switching for inadequate service by railroads, but think the scope was too narrow and it does not cover a significant portion of rail traffic. For the first time, the STB said it is requiring that three service metrics be maintained on a standardized basis across all Class 1 railroads. In the US, chemical railcar loadings represent about 20% of chemical transportation by tonnage, with trucks, barges and pipelines carrying the rest. In Canada, chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. Rail is also the predominant shipping method for US ethanol. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Stefan Baumgarten Please see the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

03-May-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–A more optimistic outlook for the global economy and chemicals could be jeopardized by rising geopolitical instability. Current downturn reminiscent of 1970s' oil shock Global GDP growth could start to recover from 2025 Geo-political risks are rising and could jeopardise economy Chemicals CEOs slightly more upbeat PMIs show China manufacturing now expanding But China challenged by debt, property bubble, youth unemployment, demographics Expect 2-3%/year China GDP growth in 2030s as population declines Europe economy is stabilising, driven by services US economy should see a soft landing In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS chief economist Kevin Swift, ICIS Insight editor Nigel Davis and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

03-May-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–ICIS senior oil analyst David Jorbenaze discusses developments in the global crude markets, with geopolitical tensions and global economic trends continuing to shape the Q3 2024 market outlook, as the OPEC+ alliance weighs the next steps in its production accords. Highlights: -OPEC Supply Strategy Adjustments: Considering easing production cuts in Q3 2024 if oil prices stay above $90/bbl, in response to rising global demand and increased output from non-member countries. –Economic Recovery and Demand Growth: Supported by a rebounding Chinese economy and global economic growth, leading to higher expected oil consumption into 2025. -Geopolitical Risks and Market Volatility: Increased tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, along with potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, contribute to heightened market uncertainty and price fluctuations.

02-May-2024

TORONTO (ICIS)–Workers at freight rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike. A first work stoppage could occur as early as 22 May, if no new collective agreements are reached by then, officials at labor union Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) said in a televised announcement on 1 May. The rail carriers warned that a work stoppage would disrupt supply chains throughout North America and constrain trade between Canada and the US and Mexico. The two railroads account for the bulk of freight rail traffic in Canada. Canada-based chemical and fertilizer producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. In the run-up of strikes, producers have to make preparations. Longer strikes can force plant shutdowns and after a strike ends it can take weeks for normal operations to resume. For the first 17 weeks of 2024, ended 27 April, Canadian chemical railcar loadings were 233,074, up 3.1% from the same period in 2023, according to  the latest freight rail data released on 1 May. Chemical industry sources had warned about the possibility of a rail strike in Canada early last month. The country's labor law requires a minimum of 72-hours notice prior to a strike or lockout. TCRC represents about 9,000 CN and CPKC engineers and conductors. The previous collective agreements expired on 31 December 2023. Thumbnail photo source: CN

02-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Economic activity in US manufacturing contracted in April after expanding in March, according to the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey released on Wednesday. March's expansion followed 16 consecutive months of contraction. In April, the PMI fell from 50.3 points in March to 49.2 in April. PMIs below the neutral 50.0 mark indicate a contraction in manufacturing activity, readings above 50.0 indicate an expansion. In commenting on the April PMI survey, Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals, noted that: Nine industries out of 18 expanded in April. The chemical industry gained for the fourth month after 16 months of decline. Overall manufacturing production fell back but continued to expand. Demand remains at the early stages of recovery and was softer last month. Customer inventories were deemed “too low” and employment contracted again during the month. New orders slipped back into contraction territory. Order backlogs contracted at a faster pace than in March. Inventories contracted at the same pace as in March. Both new orders and order backlogs, when combined with the reading on inventories, are good indicators of future activity, the economist said. PRICES He also noted that prices registered a 5.1-point gain to reach 60.9 in April – their strongest reading since June 2022. Prices are sensitive to changes in supply and demand and tend to provide a leading signal, he said. The rise in prices is "troubling" as it suggests that inflation readings in coming months may come in above expectations, he said. “The key is to watch the price of oil, which is a cost component for most manufactured goods, logistics, and many services,” he said. “If gains in disinflation prove stubborn, higher and longer interest rates are likely, and combined with an election year, provide an argument for no interest rate cuts,” he said. “Not good for housing and light vehicles, but good for savers,” he added. (source: ISM) Please also visit Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals. Thumbnail shows an automobile production line. Image by Martin Divisik/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

01-May-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazilian chemicals producers are lobbying hard for an increase in import tariffs for key polymers and petrochemicals from 12.6% to 20%, and higher in cases, hoping the hike could slow down the influx of cheap imports, which have put them against the wall. For some products, Brazil’s chemicals trade group Abiquim, which represents producers, has made official requests for the import tariffs to go up to a hefty 35%, from 9% in some cases. On Tuesday, Abiquim said several of its member companies “are already talking about hibernating plants” due to unprofitable economics. It did so after it published another set of somber statistics for the first quarter, when imports continued entering Brazil em masse. Brazil’s government Chamber of Foreign Commerce (Camex) is concluding on Tuesday a public consultation about this, with its decision expected in coming weeks. Abiquim has been busy with the public consultation: it has made as many as 66 proposals for import tariffs to be hiked for several petrochemicals and fertilizers, including widely used polymers such polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polystyrene (PS), or expandable PS (EPS), to mention just a few. Other chemicals trade groups, as well as companies, have also filed requests for import tariffs to be increased. In total, 110 import tariffs. HARD TO FIGHT OFFBrazil has always depended on imports to cover its internal chemicals demand, but the extraordinary low prices coming from competitors abroad has made Brazil’s chemicals plant to run with operating rates of 65% or lower. More and more, the country’s chemicals facilities are becoming white elephants which are far from their potential, as customers find in imported product more competitive pricing. Considering this dire situation and taking into account that the current government in Brasilia led by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may be more receptive to their demands, Abiquim has put a good fight in publica and private for measure which could shore up chemical producers’ competitiveness. This could come after the government already hiked import tariffs on several products in 2023 and re-introduced a tax break, called REIQ, for some chemicals which had been withdrawn by the previous Administration. While Brazil’s chemicals production competitiveness is mostly affected by higher input costs, with natural gas costs on average five times higher than in the US, the industry is hopeful a helping hand from the government in the form of higher import tariffs could slow down the flow of imports into Brazil. As a ‘price taker region’ given its dependence on imports, Latin American domestic producers have taken a hit in the past two years. In Brazil, polymers major Braskem is Abiquim’s commanding voice. Abiquim, obviously, has always been very outspoken – even apocalyptic – about the fate of its members as they try to compete with overseas countries, namely China who has been sending abroad product at below cost of production. The priorities in China’s dictatorial system are not related to the balance of markets, but to keep employment levels stable so its citizens find fewer excuses to protest against the regime which keeps them oppressed. Capitalist market dynamics are for the rest of the world to balance; in China’s dictatorial, controlled-economy regime the priority is to make people feel the regime’s legitimacy can come from never-ending economic growth. The results of such a policy for the rest of the world – not just in chemicals but in all industrial goods – is becoming clear: unprofitable industries which cannot really compete with heavily subsidized Chinese players. The results of such a policy in China are yet to be seen, but subsiding at all costs any industry which creates employment may have debt-related lasting consequences: as they mantra goes, “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” Abiquim’s executive president urged Lula’s cabinet to look north, to the US, where the government has imposed hefty tariffs on almost all China-produced industrial goods or raw materials for manufacturing production. “[The hikes in import tariffs] have improved the US’ scenario: despite the aggressive advance in exports by Asian countries, the drop in US [chemicals] production in 2023 was of 1%, while in Brazil the index for production fell nearly by 10%,” said Andre Passos. “The country adopted an increase in import taxes of over 30% to defend its market from unfair competition. The taxation for some inputs, such as phenol, resins and adipic [acid], for example, exceeds three digits. “Here, we are suggesting an increase in rates to 20% in most claims … We need to have this breathing space for the industry to recover,” he concluded. As such, the figures for the first quarter showed no sign of imports into Brazil slowing down. The country posted a trade deficit $9.9 billion during the January-March period; the 12-month accumulated (April 2023 to March 2024) deficit stood at $44.7 billion. A record high of 61.2 million tonnes of chemicals products entered Brazil in Q1; in turn, the country’s industry exported 14.6 million tonnes. Abiquim proposals for higher import tariffs Product Current import tariff Proposed tariff Expandable polystyrene, unfilled, in primary form 12.6% 20% Other polystyrenes in primary forms 12.6% 20% Carboxymethylcellulose with content > =75%, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other polyurethanes in liquids and pastes 12.6% 20% Phthalic anhydride 10.8% 20%  Sodium hydrogen carbonate (bicarbonate) 9% 35% Copolymers of ethylene and alpha-olefin, with a density of less than 0.94 12.6% 20% Other orthophthalic acid esters 11% 20% Other styrene polymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other silicon dioxides 0% 18% Other polyesters in liquids and pastes  12.6% 20% Commercial ammonium carbonates and other ammonium carbonates 9% 18% Other unsaturated polyethers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Polyethylene terephthalate, with a viscosity index of 78 ml/g or more 12.6% 20% Phosphoric acid with an iron content of less than 750 ppm 9% 18% Dinonyl or didecyl orthophthalates 11% 20% Poly(vinyl chloride), not mixed with other substances, obtained by suspension process 12.6% 20% Poly(vinyl chloride), not mixed with other substances, obtained by emulsion process 12.6% 20% Methyl polymethacrylate, in primary form  12.6% 20% White mineral oils (vaseline or paraffin oils) 4% 35% Other polyetherpolyols, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other unfilled epoxy resins in primary forms 12.6% 20% Silicon dioxide obtained by chemical precipitation 9% 18% Acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber in plates, sheets, etc 11% 35% Other organic anionic surface agents, whether or not put up for retail sale, not classified under previous codes 12.6% 23% Phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts 7% 20% Fumaric acid, its salts and esters 10 ,8% 20% Plasticizers and plastics 10 ,8% 20% Maleic anhydride 10 ,8% 20% Adipic acid salts and esters 10 ,8% 20% Propylene copolymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Adipic acid 9% 20% Unfilled polypropylene, in primary form 12.6% 20% Filled polypropylene, in primary form 12.6% 20% Methacrylic acid methyl esters 10 ,8% 20% Other ethylene polymers, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Acrylic acid 2-ethylhexyl esters 0% 20% 2-Ethylexanoic acid (2-ethylexoic acid) 10. 8% 20% Other copolymers of ethylene and vinyl acetate, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Other unfilled polyethylenes, density >= 0.94, in primary forms 12.6% 20% Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, unfilled 12.6% 20% Other saturated acyclic monoalcohol acetates, c atom <= 8 10. 8% 20% Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, with filler 12.6% 20% Triacetin 10. 8% 20% Sodium methylate in methanol 12.6% 20% Stearic alcohol (industrial fatty alcohol) 12.6% 20% N-butyl acetate                              11% 20% Stearic acid (industrial monocarboxylic fatty acid) 5% 35% Alkylbenzene mixtures 11% 20% Organic, non-ionic surface agents 12.6% 23% Ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution 0.0% 15% Monoethanolamine and its salts 12.6% 20% Isobutyl alcohol (2-methyl-1-propanol) 10.8% 20% Butan-1-ol (n-butyl alcohol) 10.8% 20% Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), food grade as established by the Food Chemical Codex, in primary forms 10.8% 22% Styrene                                9% 18% Hexamethylenediamine and its salts 10.8% 20% Latex from other synthetic or artificial rubbers 10.8% 35% Propylene glycol (propane-1, 2-diol) 10.8% 20% Preparations 12.6% 20% Linear alkylbenzene sulfonic acids and their salts 12.6% 23% 4,4'-Isopropylidenediphenol (bisphenol A, diphenylolpropane) and its salts 10.8% 20% Dipropylene glycol 12.6% 20% Butanone (methyl ethyl ketone) 10.8% 20% Ethyl acetate                                 10.8% 20% Methyl-, ethyl- and propylcellulose, hydroxylated 0.0% 20% Front page picture: Chemical production facilities outside Sao Paulo  Source: Union of Chemical and Petrochemical industries in the state of Sao Paulo (Sinproquim) Focus article by Jonathan Lopez Additional information by Thais Matsuda and Bruno Menini

30-Apr-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Crude prices will likely face downward pressure this week amid rising demand concerns. Investors will be keeping a watch on the US Federal Reserve meeting later this week after worrying GDP and inflation data. Despite a persistent risk premium, continued ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas could contribute to bearish sentiment. ICIS experts look ahead to the likely factors that will drive oil prices in Week 18.

29-Apr-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The founder of Unigel, aged 87, is actively fighting the Brazilian chemicals and fertilizers producer’s most decisive battle, one for its survival, as it tries to restructure its debts, one step away from bankruptcy. Henri Armand Szlezynger, who founded Unigel in 1966, has fought several financial battles before, and overcame them. But the current struggle is the most decisive yet because it could see him and his family losing their controlling stake at the producer if investment funds were to take over. Last week, Brazilian financial daily Valor reported the country’s fund IG4 was seeking to acquire a controlling stake in Unigel, citing several unnamed sources. IG4 and Unigel had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. Unigel producers styrenics and is one of Brazil’s few fertilizers producers, a sector it entered just a few years ago and which could prove to have been the reason for the company’s threatened demise. BELGIUM-BORN, BRAZIL-MADEIf ICIS had a profile section portraying chemicals industry people, Szlezynger would have featured in it several times. Szlezynger was born to a Belgian Jewish family in 1936 which moved to Brazil when he was just three years old as Europe was entering the abyss of war. The family had a good position and sent Szlezynger to the best schools in Brazil. After that, he went to the US to study chemical engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Aged only 30, he founded Unigel. From there, on he went to become one of Brazil’s richest citizens, with Forbes estimating his net worth at Brazilian reais (R) 17.2 billion ($3.3 billion) in 2022. From its foundation 58 years ago, Szlezynger still controls Unigel, and his presence cannot go unnoticed: he still goes to the company's headquarters in Sao Paulo every weekday, according to previous profiles of him published in the press. A remarkable fate for an 87-year-old. Unigel’s frantic 2023 was marked by high natural gas costs which made its fertilizer plants – and the company as a whole – a loss-making enterprise, a situation it tried to fix by knocking on the door of Brazil’s state-owned energy major Petrobras. With a government-appointee CEO, to say Petrobras is to say Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a President who has repeatedly said that Brazil must reduce its dependence on fertilizer imports. In Brazil’s economy, entrepreneurs and politicians tend to have close relationships, and Szlezynger has recurrently ticked the right boxes to get the support his company may have needed as the years and crises went by. In the north, stronghold of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), he has not shied away from showing sympathy with PT politicians. In southern and generally conservative-governed states, Szlezynger has had good relationships with politicians from the right. However, the business-politics link did not work for Unigel’s current downturn. Conversations with Petrobras were going nowhere while the company continued to lose millions every month. In a way, Unigel’s annus horribilis of 2023 ended slightly earlier, in October, when everything changed: the company failed to pay a coupon on one of its bonds, effectively defaulting on its debt obligations. Brazilian financial regulations give breathing space for companies in debt stress to negotiate their obligations with creditors, and Unigel is currently undergoing that process. Earlier in April, it said negotiations were progressing, without disclosing more detail. Jonathan Szwarc, head of Latin America credit research at Debtwire, a data firm specialized on leveraged capital markets, told ICIS that Szlezynger would not easily give up his controlling interest, but added the current crisis would be difficult to circumvent. “Unigel has had financial woes before and overcame them, but this time is quite different: once you fail to pay a coupon, things can go down very quickly. You are not meeting your debt obligations: a default,” said Scwarz. “The company has now an initial agreement with some of its creditors, but it would need to convince 50% plus one of them for it to be effective: we don’t know if that is the case. That’s where they are: seeking adherents to that initial agreement to bring it before a judge, who must approve the Extrajudicial Reorganization Process.” Will Szlezynger, after 58 successful years, be forced by circumstances to call it a day? Not that fast. Szwarc said that, in Unigel’s case, sentimental issues could be as strong as economic issues. “If they are up against it, Szlezynger may decide to reluctantly sell the company, but I really think that is the last option he contemplates," he said. "If Unigel was to be sold to a fund, I imagine he would prefer a Brazilian fund, with whom he would speak the same language business-wise, than a foreign fund." As an example, the analyst mentioned negotiations to raise $150m just in January, in the midst of the debt restructuring negotiations, through a group led by US investment fund Pimco, which is also the largest bondholder, according to reports at Brazilian financially daily Valor at the time. That deal, which could have given Unigel breathing space amid its restructuring, fell through because it would have brought closer what Szlezynger has fiercely opposed: the funds taking away from the founding family a controlling interest. “The company’s assets are good. But Unigel was very unlucky in terms of the petrochemicals and fertilizers downcycles combined. You must keep in mind that just in 2022 Unigel’s bonds were trading well over 100% [generating returns],” said Szwarc. “The assets will continue operating in any case: either under a new ownership structure, in which the Szlezynger may still have a stake even if it’s not the controlling stake, or under a potential bankruptcy, when the assets could be sold separately.” The analyst concluded saying he did fail to understand how Petrobras – the Lula-led government, effectively – had not paid more attention to Unigel, whose production of styrenics as well as fertilizers Brazil badly needs if the country is to reduce its dependence on imports. BRAZILIAN SAGAAmid all Unigel things that occurred in 2023, one of the most fascinating was its very public charge against Petrobras in November, when the company announced it would be shutting down one fertilizer plant in Camacari, state of Bahia, due to Petrobras’ “unbearable” pricing policy for natural gas. It was part of Unigel’s strategy, however, as it became clear later in December when the two firms signed a tolling agreement for the fertilizers assets, in what seemed to be Petrobras finally giving in on natural gas pricing. A Brazilian economic-political saga could not just end there. In March, Unigel announced it was halting its fertilizers production, still mentioning high natural gas prices, while Brazil’s Federal Audit (TCU in its Portuguese acronym) raised concerns about the tolling deal, which would have meant losses for Petrobras. As a state-owned company, Petrobras is audited by TCU civil servants. And as a company, the purpose of it is to make a profit: a sweet deal for Unigel on gas would not be following that logic, the auditors said. Adding to it all, Petrobras said earlier in April it was re-entering the fertilizers sector by re-starting a large fertilizer plant in Araucaria, state of Parana, idled since 2020. The energy major said fertilizers were now part of its strategic plan to 2028, adding it would therefore focus on “assets that already belong” to it. Unigel’s fertilizers plants at the centre of the story, Camacari and Laranjeiras, state of Sergipe, were a lease from Petrobras signed in 2019, when the prior Brazilian Administration wanted Petrobras’ to focus on crude oil. It was then when Unigel decided to go big on fertilizers. What does seasoned Szlezynger think about that move now? He would not be too hard on himself if he thinks it was a bad move indeed, which is putting at risk his nearly six decades business legacy. Petrobras returning to the fertilizers sector is, on the other hand, an expected move by Lula’s cabinet, who in general wants to expand the role of the state in the economy, or at least in those sectors where the country's trade deficit is large, such as fertilizers. The two plants leased to Unigel may end up, therefore, being run by Petrobras again at some point. Unigel and its relentless founder will need to fend for themselves amid the largest financial crisis ever hitting the company. At the end of the day, Lula's key constituency and the PT party's cadres would have had a hard time to digest the state was going to give strong and direct support to a private company owned by one of the richest citizens in the land. The Unigel saga continues and, whatever the next act is, Szlezynger is still likely to have a role in it. Insight by Jonathan Lopez

29-Apr-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global shipping container rates are starting to moderate, the Panama Canal expects to increase transits in May, and liquid chemical tanker spot rates are mixed, highlighting this week’s logistics roundup. CONTAINER RATES Global shipping container rates are plateauing as shipowners have implemented blank sailings to control capacity and as some carriers have announced general rate increases (GRIs). Freight forwarder Flexport said in an update on 25 April that GRIs announced for ex-Asia westbound routes are expected to stick amid high utilization from carriers. Flexport noted three factors that supported the increases – a slight increase in demand because of the May labor holiday in China; reduced capacity from the increase in blank sailings; and increased congestion at ports and equipment challenges from certain carriers. Participants in the US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) told ICIS they are seeing higher freight costs as shipping in the Red Sea and now the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted. Rate increases have also been announced for cargo heading to the Middle East region. Global container shipping major Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announced $200/TEU (20-foot equivalent unit) effective 17 May for all cargo leaving the US and Puerto Rico going to the Middle East. Global container rates from supply chain advisors Drewry were flat this week, as shown in the following chart. Rates from North China to the US Gulf also held steady, although at levels higher than were seen in December before the attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, as shown in this chart from ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID CHEM TANKERS US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were mixed this week with rates rising for parcels from the US Gulf (USG) to Brazil and India. However, rates from the USG to ARA decreased and all other trade lanes held steady. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane has had limited availability for H1 May loading. However, mid and H2 May have showed a few more options with an outsider on berth currently to South America. This could place downward pressure on this route. Although COA nominations are still up in the air, a few regular owners hope to have more space and a broker says that time will tell when this space fills up. From the USG to Asia, regular players have said they are full on most of their positions through this time, which has placed some upward pressure on smaller parcels as it has become harder to find space for them. Currently, the USG to Asia market appears to be in a fragile balance between the interest in larger slugs, and the growing number of players looking for stainless steel vessels in the USG for May, according to a broker. BALTIMORE BRIDGE The Unified Command (UC) announced the opening of a new channel at the Port of Baltimore that has allowed ships trapped inside the port to leave. The Fort McHenry Limited Access Channel, which runs the length of the northeast side of the federal channel, provides additional access to commercially essential traffic. The limited access deep draft channel has a controlling depth of a minimum of 35 feet, a 300-foot horizontal clearance, and a vertical clearance of 214 feet. Starting Monday, April 29, operations to remove the Dali will require suspension of transits through the Fort McHenry Limited Access Channel. Once deemed safe, the channel will reopen for commercial traffic. PANAMA CANAL The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) will increase the number of slots available for Panamax vessels to transit the waterway beginning 16 May and will add another slot for Neopanamax vessels on 1 June based on the present and projected water levels in Gatun Lake. The PCA began limiting the number of transits in August 2023 because of low water levels in Gatun Lake brought on by a severe drought that made 2023 the second driest year on record for the Panama Canal watershed catchment area. Wait times for non-booked vessels ready for transit edged lower for northbound vessels and rose for southbound vessels this week, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) vessel tracker and as shown in the following image. Wait times a week ago were 3.0 days for northbound traffic and 2.9 for southbound traffic. The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said current forecasts indicate that steady rainfall will arrive later this month and continue during the rainy season, which would allow the PCA to gradually ease transit restrictions and traffic could return to normal by 2025. Please see the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page With additional reporting by Melissa Wheeler and Kevin Callahan

26-Apr-2024