MADRID (ICIS)–The Brazilian government’s contingency plan for companies affected by US import tariffs is a welcome step, but bilateral talks should result in an expanded list of exemptions which includes more chemicals, the Brazilian chemicals producers’ trade group Abiquim said. The group’s director general, Andre Passos, is demanding that US-Brazil talks focus on “technical and economic” criteria so Brazil can convince the US that its trade surplus with Brazil does not justify the 50% import tariffs imposed earlier in August. This week, the Brazilian government unveiled a contingency plan worth Brazilian reais (R) 30 billion ($5.5 billion) that allocates funds from the Export Guarantee Fund (FGE) for affordable credit, alongside measures such as export credit insurance changes, tax suspension extensions and public procurement support for tariff-affected products. “Abiquim considers the package positive for preserving competitiveness and employment and reinforces the urgency of negotiations with the US for more sectoral exclusions from the tariff hike. The chemical industry exports approximately $2.5 billion annually in chemical inputs for industrial use directly to the US,” said Abiquim. “In addition to direct losses, Abiquim is deeply concerned about the indirect impacts on sectors that demand chemicals – such as plastics, footwear, food and apparel – which will now also be able to access the support package.” Previously, Abiquim said 82% of the $2.5 billion in exports to the US was concentrated in 50 NCM codes covering basic petrochemicals, organic intermediates and thermoplastic resins. Of the 50 main items, only five are unaffected by the new tariff: For inorganic chemicals, silicon (NCM 2804.69.00 – S), calcined alumina (NCM 2818.20.10 – C) and oxides, hydroxides and peroxides of other metals will be exempt. For organic chemicals, mixtures of aromatic hydrocarbons (NCM 2707.50.90) and saturated chlorinated derivatives of acyclic hydrocarbons (NCM 2903.19.90) will also be exempt. The five products accounted for $697 million of Brazilian exports to the US in 2024, said Abiquim, but the remainder – approximately $1.7 billion – would be hit by the extra 40% rate, raising the total burden to 50%. “Expanding this list [of exemptions] depends on rapid progress in direct negotiations between the Brazilian and US governments,” said the trade group. “Abiquim, together with [US chemicals trade group] the American Chemistry Council (ACC), emphasizes that the economic relationship between Brazil and the US is historically complementary, with integrated production chains and more than 20 US-owned chemical companies operating in Brazil.” Abiquim said if the tariffs are maintained, Brazilian chemicals exporters will be forced to seek new markets to “avoid greater losses.” It added that while the hit to employment may be contained in the short term thanks to the government’s plan, the impact in the long run could be considerable. “The sector tends to see impacts on employment more slowly, but the situation requires constant monitoring. The unprecedented scale of the package requires monitoring to assess whether it will be sufficient or whether a second phase will be necessary,” it said. Brazilian chemicals majors such as Braskem and Unipar say the US tariffs will not greatly impact them directly, but the management at Unipar said some key end markets have already been affected and this could ultimately impact demand for some of its products. Earlier this month, US credit rating agency Moody’s said US tariffs on Brazil will impose a modest economic setback over the next year due to extensive exemptions for key exports and because the redirection of trade flows will be gradual. Front page picture: Brazil’s port of Santos in the state of Sao Paulo Picture source: Port of Santos Authority 

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco has signed an $11 billion lease and leaseback deal involving its Jafurah gas processing facilities with a consortium of international investors, the energy giant said on 15 August. The consortium is led by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), a part of US private investment firm BlackRock, it said in a statement. As part of the transaction a newly-formed subsidiary, Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC), will lease development and usage rights for the Jafurah field gas plant and the Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation facility, and lease them back to Aramco for 20 years. Aramco will hold a 51% majority stake in JMGC, with the remaining 49% held by investors led by GIP. Jafurah is the largest non-associated gas development in Saudi Arabia, estimated to contain 229 trillion standard cubic feet of raw gas and 75 billion stock tank barrels of condensate. It is a key component in Aramco’s plans to increase gas production capacity by 60% between 2021 and 2030, compared with 2021 levels, to meet rising demand. “Jafurah is a cornerstone of our ambitious gas expansion program,” said Amin Nasser, Aramco’s President and CEO. “We look forward to Jafurah playing a major role as a feedstock provider to the petrochemicals sector, and supplying energy required to power new growth sectors, such as AI data centers, in the Kingdom.” Phase one of the Jafurah development program, which commenced in November 2021, is progressing on schedule with initial start-up anticipated in the third quarter of 2025, Aramco said in an earlier statement. Aramco expects total overall lifecycle investment at Jafurah to exceed $100 billion and production to reach a sustainable sales gas rate of two billion standard cubic feet per day by 2030, in addition to significant volumes of ethane, NGL and condensate. Thumbnail photo shows the Saudi Aramco company logo (Source: Yassine Mahjoub/SIPA/Shutterstock)

MADRID (ICIS)–Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed late on Wednesday a provisional measure with support measures for Brazilian exporters facing US tariffs totaling Brazilian reais (R) 30 billion ($5.5 billion). The so-called Sovereign Brazil Plan allocates funds from the Export Guarantee Fund (FGE) for affordable credit alongside measures including export credit insurance changes, tax suspension extensions and public procurement support for tariff-affected products. At the signing ceremony at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Lula said, “sovereignty is untouchable”, but added that Brazil remains open to negotiations with the US to resolve the trade crisis. The plan envisages public support in the areas: strengthening the productive sector, protecting workers and advancing commercial diplomacy and multilateralism to reduce dependence on US markets while preserving employment and encouraging strategic investment, said the Brazilian cabinet. Credit measures are to prioritize companies based on US export revenue dependence, product type, and company size, with access conditional on maintaining employment levels. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will receive specific support through expanded guarantee fund access, the cabinet said. The R30 billion credit allocation provides funding for affordable lending, with additional R1.5 billion contributed to the Foreign Trade Guarantee Fund, R2 billion to the Investment Guarantee Fund, and R1 billion to the Operations Guarantee Fund. Drawback regime deadlines receive exceptional one-year extensions for companies with US export commitments, affecting $10.5 billion of the $40 billion exported to the US in 2024 under the regime, said the government. An enhanced Reintegra program increases tax refunds by up to 3 percentage points for affected companies, raising large and medium companies’ rates to 3.1% and SMEs to 6%, valid until December 2026 with up to R5 billion impact. From January to July 2025, US exports to Brazil grew 12.7% while Brazilian exports to the US increased just 4.6%, creating, “an impressive surplus, almost three times larger in these first seven months”, said Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, who is also minister for industry. “We will continue to persist in negotiations. Because we like to negotiate. And we don’t want conflict. If there are more things, we will do them for the workers. Because in this country, we’ve learned that no one lets go of anyone else’s hand. The only thing we need to demand is that sovereignty is untouchable,” said Lula. “Brazil had no real reason to be taxed, nor will we accept any accusation that we don’t respect human rights in Brazil. I want to say to business owners and workers: we will try to do everything in our power to minimize the problems that have been caused to us,” he declared. Brazil said it would advance commercial diplomacy through concluded agreements with the EU and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), ongoing negotiations with UAE and Canada, and dialogue processes with India and Vietnam. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that tax reform already benefits exporters while new measures, “will empower the entire export sector to mobilize in search of new markets”. Brazil’s chemicals trade group Abiquim had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. Thumbnail image: Brazil’s port of Santos in the state of Sao Paulo (Image source: Port of Santos Authority)

LONDON (ICIS)–European methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) reporter Gabrielle Jordan and methanol senior editor Eashani Chavda discuss the supply-demand dynamics of each market as both face atypical, subdued demand in the third quarter, on a below-par summer driving season. Topics discussed include: Supply-demand dynamics Increasing import reliance Potential US tariffs and their effects Podcast by Gabrielle Jordan and Eashani Chavda

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co (MPHC) reported a net profit of Qatari riyal (QR) 379 million ($104.1 million) for the first six months of 2025, a 5% year on year decline compared to the same period last year, amid declining prices and macroeconomic headwinds, the Qatari chemicals firm said on 12 August. in Qatari riyal (QR) million H1 2025 H1 2024 % Change Sales 585 559 5 EBITDA 610 627 -3 Net profit 379 398 -5 Weak industrial activity and cautious consumer spending contributed to subdued demand for products such as ethylene (C2) and its derivatives during the first half of 2025, said MPHC. At the same time, there was a surge in global capacity, leading to heightened competition and lower operating rates, and contributing to some project delays or shutdowns. “Additionally, fluctuations in feedstock and energy costs, particularly crude oil and ethylene, have added to the pricing volatility,” MPHC added. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, production increased, primarily driven by notable growth in volumes in the petrochemical sector. MPHC recorded an increase in sales volumes compared to the first half of 2024 despite lower total revenue, thanks to stronger operational performances. During the first half of 2025, the chlor-alkali segment suffered from lower average selling prices compared to the same period last year as sluggish demand and macroeconomic pressures persisted. Oversupply and reduced ethylene prices also weighed on market sentiment. Sharing an update on its 350,000 tonne/year polyvinyl chloride (PVC) project, MPHC said it is expected to commence production during the second half of 2025. ($1 = QR3.64)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Navigating the muddled world of petrochemicals requires more than just data—it requires constantly evolving scenarios. The old one-size-fits-all view is dead. The U.S. transshipment rules are the latest headwind, creating immense uncertainty for a key petrochemical import market: Vietnam. Are these tariffs a genuine threat or a policy destined to unravel? I’ve developed three scenarios to help us understand the potential outcomes for Vietnam’s petrochemical sector, inspired by analysis from the Eurasia Group and the pressures facing the White House. 1. Best Case: “Pragmatic Abandonment” The rules are so complex and unworkable that the U.S. quietly rolls them back. Pressure from American importers and the logistical nightmare for Customs and Border Protection forces the administration’s hand. Petrochemical Impact: This would be a huge win. The “China Plus One” strategy flourishes, driving a surge in manufacturing FDI. Demand for polyolefins and other petrochemicals booms, with little downward pressure on pricing from converters. 2. Medium Case: “Navigating the New Normal” The rules aren’t abandoned, but they’re also not effectively enforced. This creates a state of perpetual friction, where trade gets through but with significant delays and shortages. Petrochemical Impact: Demand growth for petrochemicals slows to low single digits. Converters become more price-sensitive, and Vietnam’s role as an “escape valve” for major exporters from the Middle East and Asia is diminished. 3. Worst Case: “Political Paralysis” The rules are unworkable, but the U.S. government stubbornly sticks to them for political reasons. The resulting paralysis chokes off investment and trade, causing a deep recession in Vietnam. Petrochemical Impact: This leads to negative demand growth. Converters face extreme price sensitivity, and import volumes slip dramatically as the manufacturing base contracts. This situation highlights why we can’t rely on a single forecast. Understanding these different futures is essential for managing risk and seizing opportunity. What scenario do you think is most likely to play out? Let’s discuss. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Legislation continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of the recycled plastics industry. From global policy framework efforts to community-based mandates, regulatory development is targeting plastic waste reduction, increasing recycled content thresholds, and shifting supply chain dynamics to engage all stakeholders. GLOBAL POLICY EFFORTSSince 2022, the United Nations led Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) has convened five rounds of international negotiations to develop a legally binding framework to address and reduce plastic pollution, known as the Global Plastics Treaty. The next meeting round (INC-5.2) is located in Geneva, Switzerland, starting on 5 August 2025, where members urged to finalize the Treaty. Expectations remain uncertain as over 100 participating countries are pushing to align on the language and scope of the Treaty. Treaty initiatives include enforceable obligations for global caps on virgin material production, recycled content thresholds, and EPR frameworks. If finalized, the Treaty could accelerate demand for recycled materials and pressure governments and brands to invest in recycling infrastructure to support the supply chain. By harmonizing global recycling standards, the Treaty aims to generate a circular economy through utilizing legal and financial incentives for brands and governments to accelerate demand for recycled materials and investments into the supply chain. So far, US officials have maintained a cautious stance on some Treaty concepts and are currently displaying an opposing stance towards initiatives that aim to limit virgin plastic production. Instead, expressing that production controls should be determined at a national level to emphasize cost effectiveness and job supportive solutions. This stance is similar to other oil and gas producing nations that advocate for the Treaty to focus on waste management and recycling, rather than imposing upstream restrictions that would reduce domestic jobs. US FEDERAL LEGISLATIONWhile the US does not currently have an active federal policy targeting plastics recycling, there are various federal initiatives that influence the market: Federal funding: Recent federal loan distribution adjustments from the Department of Energy have impacted the funding for recycling facilities such as International Recycling Group and Eastman. Proposed tax incentives: Formally announced in July 2025, the CIRCLE Act aims to encourage investment in infrastructure by reducing tax liability on the private entity investor. The initiative expects accelerated investment in infrastructure to stabilize consumer recycling streams, generate domestic jobs, and reduce reliance on imported material. Indirect impacts of virgin plastic policy: The Trump administration has signaled intentions to expand domestic virgin resin production, which may increase cost premiums between virgin and recycled materials as longer virgin supply brings down virgin markets. Intended outcomes of this initiative may be restrained by new tariff dynamics, though the net outcome is similar, including domestic oversupply and therefore decreased domestic operating rates. Chemical recycling support: There is a possibility for the federal administration to support chemical recycling initiatives, generating policies that accept the technology as a manufacturing process rather than waste process, which can yield financial benefits and tax incentives to encourage investments into the industry. Impacts of shifting trade dynamics: Trade policy under the current administration favors reducing dependence on foreign materials. The US recycling market imports significant volumes of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) feedstock to compensate for low domestic collection rates, particularly that of quality waste. Potential trade tariffs may challenge the domestic recycling market to operate cost effectively while limiting imports. US STATE POLICYState-level legislation is creating both opportunities and compliance challenges for producers and recyclers. Mixed approaches across states have created a fragmented landscape, complicating compliance for national brands. Highlighting key state-wide plastics recycling legislation, there is currently no overlap between the states with active chemical recycling acceptance and states with active Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) or Post-Consumer Recycled (PCR) policies. At this time, brands and recyclers are likely prioritizing compliance with Oregon EPR legislation, which officially launched July 2025, while similarly preparing for the rollout of Colorado and California’s EPR frameworks, both of which are scheduled to begin phased implementation this year. State-by-state laws are transforming the US recycled plastics landscape into a patchwork of markets where recycled polymers fluctuate in value based on the local policy. Recyclers operating in states with extensive regulations may command higher premium pricing in comparison to states with minimal policy. This may encourage regional sourcing strategies and investments in local collection and processing infrastructure. MARKET OUTLOOKLegislative policy is a key force shaping investments, innovation, and pricing in the plastics recycling market. As more states implement and enforce legal guidelines, producers and recyclers must adapt to evolving requirements or face legal penalties. For instance, Washington and California PCR programs have established a penalty of 20 cents/lb for every pound of recycled content the brand falls short of the policy threshold. While still in the initial stages of implementation, stakeholders of plastics-related legislation have responded to the guidelines with a mix of urgency and caution. Some stakeholders are quickly launching long-term contracts with partners to support circular targets, while those that tail behind cite struggles to achieve circular goals due to challenges conforming to fragmented policy, rising costs, and shortage of quality material. While the US recycling market is currently challenged with cost-sensitive materials and uncertainty around trade policy impacts, the key driving forces of the market – such as legislation and brand sustainability goals – are expected to continue driving long-term demand for recycled materials. Specific categories such as post-consumer recycled material and food grade certified recycled material are expected to experience significant market competition with bottleneck supply constraints. As stakeholders face increased pressures to develop a circular economy, understanding and anticipating the policy and supply-chain landscape are becoming critical steps for brands and recyclers seeking to maintain compliance, competitiveness, and credibility. Insight article by Corbin Olson

BARCELONA (ICIS)–As a completely new chemical industry landscape unfolds before us, leaders should harness AI, innovation and consolidation opportunities in high cost regions. Industry faces structural – not cyclical – challenges Overcapacity and competition squeeze Europe Demand decouples from GDP, shrinking market size AI can boost efficiency and forecasting accuracy. Specialties and low-carbon products need careful thinking Global chemical companies withdraw from Europe Local chemical companies can gain market share via mergers & acquisitions (M&A) M&A and national champions may drive consolidation Defence sector offers immediate, well-funded opportunities In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Richard Carter from Carter Consultancy and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore has upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5-2.5% from 0-2% previously, amid better-than-expected economic performance in Q2 2025, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Tuesday. Improved Singapore GDP growth forecast amid tariff suspensions in May US tariff effects to cloud GDP growth in 2025 Manufacturing to slow down as export front-loading moderates The economic outlook, however, remains “clouded by uncertainty” and headwinds may shrink growth further this year, MTI said in a statement. Economic growth in most advanced and regional economies, which include ASEAN, has been better than expected as a 90-day suspension on US tariffs delayed negative trade impact, alongside a de-escalation of trade tensions between major economies including China, Japan, the EU, and many southeast Asian countries. “Meanwhile, the US and China continue to be engaged in trade talks, with indications that the 90-day tariff truce between the two countries could be extended,” MTI said. On Tuesday, China and the US announced that they had agreed to a further 90-day extension on “reciprocal” tariff suspensions until 10 November. As front-loading of exports moderates and US tariffs take effect from 7 August, Singapore’s growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year as demand weakens in manufacturing, MTI said. While Singapore is subject to 10% baseline tariffs by the US, other Asian economies apart from China have received between 15-25% levies. Singapore grew by 4.4% year on year in the second quarter, while on a quarter on quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the Singapore economy expanded by 1.4%, swinging from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. Growth was primarily driven by the wholesale trade, manufacturing, finance & insurance, and transportation & storage sectors, particularly as export front-loading took place amid US trade tariffs levied on most countries in April. In the second quarter, the manufacturing sector expanded by 5.2% year on year, following the 4.7% growth in the previous quarter. Manufacturing growth during the quarter was driven by output expansions across all except the chemicals and general manufacturing clusters, MTI said. Meanwhile, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 7.1% year on year in the second quarter, up from 3.3% growth in the first quarter, according to Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) on Tuesday. Trade statistics for the month of July will be released on 17 August. Focus article by Jonathan Yee