News and analysis

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s retail inflation hit a nine-month high of 5.49% in September, mainly on firmer food prices, while the country’s industrial output in August shrank for the first time in 22 months. The year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in September was higher than the 3.65% rate seen in August, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said on Monday. “It is likely that the increase in inflation rate for the month of September 2024 is due to high-base effect and weather conditions,” the MoSPI said. The September inflation figure remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance band of 2.00-6.00%. Inflation had softened significantly in July and August with both months recording an inflation rate below the central bank’s target of 4%. Food inflation, which forms a significant portion of the CPI, stood at 9.20% in September, a sharp increase from 5.66% in August. On 9 October, the central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 6.5% but changed its monetary policy stance to “neutral”, following a deceleration in GDP growth below 7% in fiscal Q1. RBI maintained its inflation forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 4.5%, while retaining its full-year GDP growth forecast at 7.2%. India – a giant emerging market in Asia – overperformed most economies last year, posting a robust 8.2% GDP growth in the year ending March 2024. Meanwhile, India’s factory output in August, as measured through the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), declined for the first time in 22 months – down by 0.1% year on year compared with a 4.7% expansion in July. The decline was caused by an unfavourable base effect and excessive rainfall in several regions across the country, data released on 11 October showed. August manufacturing output grew 1% year on year, while mining output contracted by 4.3% and power generation declined by 3.7%. In the same period last year, manufacturing posted a 10% growth, with mining and power generation posted increases of 12.3% and 15.3%, respectively. For the first five months of the current fiscal year (April-August 2024), India's IIP grew by an average of 4.2%, weaker than the 6.2% expansion recorded in the previous corresponding period. Focus article Priya Jestin

14-Oct-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 11 October. NEWS Dow shuts Argentina polyols plant on global oversupplyDow has decided to stop producing polyether polyols at its site in San Lorenzo, in Argentina’s province of Santa Fe, on the back of poor economics, the US chemicals major confirmed to ICIS on Wednesday. Brazil growth story props up chloralkali sector; Argentina still distant from being out of woods – CloroSurBrazil’s healthier than expected growth in 2024 has greatly propped up the chloralkali sectors, while Argentina's woes, although improving, will take some time to be fixed, said the director general at Brazil’s trade group Abiclor. Brazil’s September inflation ticks up to 4.4% on drought-induced higher electricity, food costsThe drought affecting Brazil filtered through consumers prices with higher energy bills and foods prices, pushing the annual rate of inflation to 4.4%, up from 4.14% in August, the country’s statistics office IBGE said on Wednesday. Argentina’s chemicals output down 3.5% in August, manufacturing down 6.9%Argentina’s chemicals and some petrochemicals-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and construction continue to bear the brunt of the recession, with output falling again in August, the country’s statistics office Indec said on Tuesday. Chile’s September inflation down to 4.1%, central bank expected to cut rates furtherChile’s annual rate of inflation fell in September to 4.1%, down from July’s 4.7%, reinforcing analysts’ expectation the central bank is to cut interest rates further later this month. Brazil’s Q3 automotive output highest since 2019Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive automotive output posted in Q3 its best quarter since 2019 and fully recovered its pre-pandemic levels, trade group Anfavea said. Lula signs law to promote cleaner energy in BrazilOn Tuesday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva officially signed into law the Combustivel do Futuro (PL 528/2020), a significant legislative step aimed at promoting cleaner energy in Brazil. Mexico's Alfa completes key step towards Alpek spinoffThe proposed spinoff of Mexican polyester producer Alpek has reached a key milestone, with corporate parent Alfa saying on Tuesday that it has solicited consents from more than 90% of the holders of a batch of senior notes. Argentina’s inflation falls to 209%; monthly price rises finally below 4% markArgentina's annual rate of inflation fell in September to 209%, down from 237% in August, the country’s statistics office Indec said on Thursday. Brazil’s Grupo Potencial to expand soybean oil-based biodiesel plant in ParanaBiodiesel and glycerine producer Grupo Potencial is to invest Brazilian real (R) 600 million ($107 million) to expand its facility in Lapa, in Parana state’s region of Curitiba, to up its capacity to 1.62 billion liters/year (1.42 million tonnes/year) of biodiesel, the government of Parana said this week. PRICING LatAm PP international prices increase in Chile, Peru on higher Chinese offersInternational polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Chile and Peru on the back of higher offers from China, while in Argentina and Brazil, prices dropped tracking competitive offers from abroad. LatAm PE international prices fall on competitive US export offersInternational polyethylene (PE) prices fell across Latin American (LatAm) countries on competitive offers from the US. Brazil expanding sectors drive PVC import surgeBrazil's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) imports emerged in 2024, driven by the improved demand from the construction and automotive sectors.

14-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 11 October. Hurricane Milton on track to hit US fertilizer hub in Tampa Milton strengthened on Monday into a powerful Category 4 hurricane, and it is expected to continue strengthening before making landfall by midweek near Tampa, Florida, a major fertilizer hub that was drenched by an earlier major hurricane. Florida ports close as Hurricane Milton approaches Tampa fertilizer hub Ports along Florida's Gulf Coast are closed to vessel traffic as Milton approaches the state's fertilizer hub in Tampa as a Category 4 hurricane. Railroad shuts many Florida terminals ahead of Hurricane Milton Railroad company CSX is suspending operations at several of its intermodal and TRANSFLO terminals in Florida ahead of Milton, which has shifted its path away from Tampa, a major fertilizer hub. Hurricane Milton makes landfall in Florida as Category 3 storm Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta Key, along Florida’s Gulf Coast in the US as a Category 3 storm, bringing strong winds and heavy rains, with warnings of a storm surge in effect at several locations. UPDATE: Hurricane Milton moves off Florida's east coast with damaging winds, heavy rainfall Hurricane Milton is moving away from Florida’s east coast but is still producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall in the state, according to the latest update on Thursday. INSIGHT: After Milton, global chems face future of rapidly intensifying hurricanes Warmer waters in the Atlantic Basin could make record-setting hurricanes like Milton and Beryl more common, which strengthened rapidly to become major storms that caused significant damage. Some Florida ports reopen while millions lack power after Milton Some ports in Florida have resumed operations while millions in the US state remain without power after Hurricane Milton made landfall earlier in the week, south of the fertilizer hub of Tampa.

14-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at  'reinvention' as a critical issue for the industry. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

14-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–In episode 18 of the ICIS Hydrogen Insights podcast, ICIS global hydrogen editor Jake Stones is joined by Matthieu Boisson, managing director for CertifHy, a voluntary hydrogen certification company. Matthieu explains the impact of the European Commission’s “positive technical assessment” for RFNBO certifiers, as well as the commercial value hydrogen certificates could hold. Beyond this, Matthieu’s experience with companies seeking pre-certification sheds light on where Europe stands as a global market leader. Finally, the pair discuss whether there is interest in low-carbon hydrogen certification.

14-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s crude oil imports in September totaled 45.5 million tonnes, down by 0.6% year on year and lower by 7.4% from the previous month, official data showed on Monday. For the first nine months of 2024, its total crude imports declined by 2.8% year on year to 412.4 million tonnes, according to China Customs data. The world’s second-largest economy is expected to see a 2.9% decrease on crude imports this year to 548 million tonnes as economic headwinds and rising penetration of electric and gas-powered vehicles drag fuel demand, ICIS principal analyst Patricia Tao said.

14-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Ahead of the 3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference in Berlin on 7 November, Senior Analyst for Recycling Egor Dementev discusses the challenges and opportunities for both mechanical and chemical recycling with Annick Meerschman, Innovation Director at CEFIC. Topics covered include: Innovations driving plastic recycling in Europe Chemical recycling technology evolution Impact of legislation and regulation Challenges facing the recycling industry

14-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 11 October. Evonik plans major restructure of two business units as global competition intensifies German specialty group Evonik plans to restructure two of its business units, putting non-core assets up for sale, closure or partnerships. Hurricane Milton moves off Florida's east coast with damaging winds, heavy rainfall Hurricane Milton is moving away from Florida’s east coast but is still producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall in the state, according to the latest update on Thursday. Fundamental change still potentially ahead for chemicals industry Massive overcapacity along some value chains is likely to drive further fundamental shifts in the global chemicals landscape, with differentiation and innovation key to remaining competitive. Europe chems market overdue for restructure – Brenntag chief The European chemicals market is overdue a “massive” restructuring, the CEO of Brenntag said on Tuesday, to create players that can withstand competitive pressures from companies in higher-growth markets. Europe MPG outlook downbeat, but potential de-icing demand brings some hope Europe's mono propylene (MPG) spot market will likely remain subdued into early Q1 2025 against a tough macroeconomic backdrop.

14-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 11 October. Vietnam Q3 economy grows 7.4% despite heavy typhoon losses By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Oct-24 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam’s economy expanded by 7.4% year on year in the third quarter despite hefty losses from Typhoon Yagi, with growth marking its strongest in two years on robust exports. PODCAST: UAE base oils may see higher Q4 imports; US Group II offers keenly awaited By Damini Dabholkar 07-Oct-24 14:29 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The base oils market in UAE is likely to see an uptick in demand in the fourth quarter, with the impact of escalating tensions in the region on crude prices and Group I supply from Iran closely monitored in the weeks ahead. Asia MMA import trade to stay subdued amid weak buyer confidence By Jasmine Khoo 09-Oct-24 13:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The methyl methacrylate (MMA) spot trade in Asia is likely to stay curtailed in the near term. China ethanolamines dull post holidays while SE Asia and India struggle By Clive Ong 10-Oct-24 15:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ethanolamines market in China remained slow after the country’s Golden Week holidays. Demand remained tepid while domestic prices held steady. S Korea's Hyundai Motor seeks to raise $3.3 billion from India IPO By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Oct-24 16:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Hyundai Motor's subsidiary in India is seeking to raise up to won (W) 4.4 trillion ($3.3 billion) through an initial public offering (IPO) on 15 October. China Sept petrochemicals weaken; Oct demand pick-up unlikely By Yvonne Shi 11-Oct-24 12:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Falling costs of crude oil and weaker-than-expected seasonal end-demand caused China's domestic petrochemical markets to weaken in September, with players expecting the current supply-demand imbalance to persist for the rest of the year. S Korea central bank cuts key interest rate to 3.25% amid slowing inflation By Jonathan Yee 11-Oct-24 17:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's central bank on Friday lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% after holding rates for nearly two years, seeking to revitalize the economy amid moderating inflation.

14-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Entering day two of post-hurricane activities and as the community of Tampa and surrounding cities attempt to clean up and dry out, the fertilizer industry is still assessing damage with flooding appearing to have had the biggest impact on production sites. Striking as a Category 3 hurricane late 9 October the storm brought intense and life-threatening conditions to a section of Florida that had already faced such a threat less than two weeks before. It particularly impacted the Tamp, Florida area, which is a key hub of the US fertilizer industry. Market sources, based in this region, said most of the focus on Friday was cleaning up and trying to determine how much damaged had been caused. The extent of impacts to fertilizer facilities were not fully clear but producer Mosaic did say it had some issues because of the storm but that once it had the full updates about Hurricane Milton's impact on their facilities it would post on their website. As was the fear of environmentalists the gypstacks that are a fixture of phosphate production experienced problems with the water supporting the storage at the Mosaic Riverview facility having likely entered the Tampa Bay because of the extreme rainfall. “Back-to-back historic storms crossed our operational areas. Our sites withstood the conditions with few challenges. Our Riverview site, which has operated on Tampa Bay for the last century, received nearly 15 inches of rain during Hurricane Milton less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene,” said Mosaic. “A water collection system supporting our closed gypstack became overwhelmed, pushing excess water out a manhole on our property. At this time, we believe some of that impacted stormwater made its way to an outfall which discharges into Tampa Bay.” Mosaic said the issue was addressed on 10 October and is not continuing but added that the volume may have been greater than the 17,500-gallon reporting standard. “We expect water quality impacts, if any, to be modest. We’ve been in constant communication with regulators who are onsite today,” Mosaic said. Florida environmental authorities have not made any statement but ahead of the storm had said they were preparing and would have all resources available to oversee the regulated facilities and operations.

11-Oct-2024