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ICIS News
INSIGHT: China hydrogen investments to gain momentum on Energy Law
SINGAPORE (ICS)–China’s Energy Law that will take effect in January 2025 is expected to drive investments in the domestic hydrogen sector as it will provide further policy support, and enable technological developments aimed at expanding the scope of hydrogen applications. Under the law, hydrogen will no longer be classified as a dangerous chemical product, thus, removing restrictions around its applications, production and storage. China’s hydrogen sector is currently in the demonstration phase, mainly focusing on commercial vehicle application. When the new legislation kicks in, hydrogen production and refuelling stations and storage facilities will be allowed outside designated chemical parks, and that is expected to address infrastructure gaps in the sector. Hefty transportation cost due to lack of hydrogen refuelling stations and long-distance pipelines has been one of the key bottlenecks that impede hydrogen adoption in China. Storage and transportation account for about 30% of end-use hydrogen costs, limiting hydrogen applications in urban public transport and long-haul sectors. With the new energy law, development of the Chinese hydrogen sector is expected to gain pace between 2026 and 2030. (See ICIS Hydrogen Topic Page for details) The China Energy Law was approved on 8 November at the 12th session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature. It fills a legislative gap since China – despite being the world's largest energy producer and consumer – had long lacked an overarching energy law. Currently, there are several standalone energy-related laws and regulations in the country, including the Electricity Law, the Coal Law, the Energy Conservation Law, and the Renewable Energy Law, but lacked a legislation that covers the whole energy industry until now. The recently launched Energy Law will provide a much-needed framework for strengthening the legal foundation of the energy sector, ensuring national energy security and promoting renewable and low-carbon transformation. The law includes nine sections, covering stipulations on energy planning, development and utilization, energy market systems, energy reserves and emergency measures, energy technology innovation, supervision and management, legal responsibilities, supplementary provisions. Insight article by Patricia Tao and Yu Yunfeng
13-Nov-2024
Asia petrochemical shares fall on strong US dollar, uncertain trade policies
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, tracking weakness in regional bourses, amid a strong US dollar and uncertainty over trade policies of US President-elect Donald Trump which could fuel inflation. At 04:00 GMT, LG Chem fell by 4.75% in Seoul, while Mitsui Chemicals and Asahi Kasei were down by 2.90% and 0.88%, respectively, in Tokyo. Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) was down 1.79% in Taipei, while Sinopec Corp slipped 0.47% in Hong Kong. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 Index was down by 1.01% at 38,978.11; South Korea's KOSPI Composite fell by 1.91% to 2,435.04; and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped by 0.63% to 19,721.58. Sentiment toward Asian equities has shifted to caution following Trump's re-election on concerns that his policies will drive up inflation and prevent the US Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further. The broad dollar index (DXY) rose further on 12 November to its highest since November 2022, according to Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. The DXY, which measures the greenback against six peers, inched up 0.05% on Thursday to 105.97. A stronger US dollar makes imports more expensive for Asia, fueling inflation, and higher borrowing costs for the region. Japan and China rely heavily on imports for their energy and raw material needs. The South Korean won continued to slide against the greenback on Thursday, hovering above the psychologically important level of won (W) 1,400 at W1,406.57 to the US dollar. The Japanese yen (Y) also touched a fresh low since 30 July on Thursday and was trading at around Y154.8 to the US dollar. Thumbnail image: US dollar banknotes, 19 September 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
13-Nov-2024
Nissan 20% production cuts add to chem auto woes
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Warnings from chemical companies about upcoming auto shutdowns are becoming true, with Nissan becoming the latest automobile producer to announce reductions in its workforce and global production capacity after slashing its forecast for operating profits during its current fiscal year. Chemical producers have warned that automobile producers had started taking unscheduled and prolonged downtime in the third quarter, and the trend will continue in the fourth quarter. For Celanese, the downturn was sudden and painful, especially for its Engineered Materials segment, contributing to a big Q3 miss in its earnings and a decision to temporarily idle plants in the fourth quarter. Trinseo, which also makes engineered materials, expects a lot of its customers will shut down operations during the fourth quarter. The latest ICIS auto forecast still expects builds to increase in 2024. The rate of growth will slow in 2025. Automobiles represent a key end market for plastics and chemicals because nearly every component has some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. Chemicals are also used to make antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, coatings and adhesives. AUTO CUTBACKS SO FARNissan plans to cut global production capacity by 20% and reduce its workforce by 9,000. The move is part of a plan to reduce fixed costs by 300 billion yen and variable costs by 100 billion yen when compared to its fiscal 2024, which will end on 31 March. Nissan has slashed its outlook for fiscal year 2024, as shown in the following table: Revised FY 24 Outlook Previous FY 24 Outlook Revenue 12,700.0 14,000.0 Operating profit 150.0 500.0 Source: Nissan Stellantis is cutting 1,100 jobs at its US plant in Toledo, Ohio, which produces Jeep vehicles, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal, a business publication. In the late summer, it reported Stellantis's plans to lay off 2,450 workers in Michigan state after it decided to end production of a truck model. Volkswagen has called for a 10% pay cut for workers in Germany in order to ensure its competitiveness and safeguard jobs. According to media reports, the auto major may close three of its 10 plants in Germany and cut thousands of jobs. Additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail shows automobiles. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock.
12-Nov-2024
Mexico in strong position to renegotiate USMCA, tariff panic premature – Braskem Idesa exec
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–A potential US import tariff of 10% on Mexican goods is looming large on the country's export and petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors, but it is early days and the worries are premature, according to the head of institutional relations at polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa. Sergio Plata, who is also the president of the Association of Industrialists of Veracruz State (Aievac), home to a large petrochemicals hub, added that Mexico is not only a supplier to the US – the country exports around 80% of what it produces to the US – but it is also a key consumer of US goods. Plata said this will be a crucial factor that will allow Mexico to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) from a position of strength when it is up for renewal in 2026. Although the focus in the past week has been on how Mexico could be hit by tariffs when Trump becomes US president – with some analysts forecasting a negative impact of 0.5-1% of GDP in a full year – Plata made a call to stay calm and carry on – for now. He argues that the tariffs will not be imposed overnight, saying that such topics are likely to be addressed within the context of the USMCA renegotiation, in more than a year’s time. Moreover said Plata, in Donald Trump’s first term, he ended up dropping some campaign promises under pressure from different lobby groups, not least businesses which could see input costs spike if new tariffs are implemented. “These [proposals would be] important challenges for Mexico, and I believe 2026’s USMCA renegotiation will be key for the entire North America so we can continue being and become more competitive,” said Plata. “Regarding tariffs, at this time we can only wait until the parties sit at the negotiating table, so we can have a dialogue with the US government. What I can certainly say is that NAFTA first and now USCMA have greatly served the three countries, a success which we should not measure only based on the trade balance.” The US trade balance – or deficit – is a key theme running through Trump’s tariff proposals as he wants to re-invigorate the US manufacturing sector, and produce as much as possible domestically. Indeed, the US consistently runs a large trade deficit with China and Mexico, its two main sources of manufactured goods. In 2022, Mexico exported goods worth $452 billion to the US, according to data from Comtrade via Trading Economics; the US, in turn, exported goods worth $323 billion to Mexico – a difference of nearly $130 billion. According to Plata, nothing is written about tariffs, at least within the USMCA, and issued a reminder of what happened when the USCMA was first signed, as a successor to NAFTA after Trump’s first administration demanded changes to a free trade deal it deemed disadvantageous. Despite the furore, tariffs were kept off the table because the US government eventually saw that tariffs within the USCMA would also negatively affect its own companies. Whether an emboldened Trump, with a clear popular mandate to implement his promises, will also give in this time remains to be seen. “We would be going too far ahead of ourselves if we already think a 10% tariff on Mexico will be imposed. We Mexicans must now make it clear to the US that the commercial relationship should not only be measured on the trade deficit, but rather on what Mexico gives to the US as well, and not just the other way around,” said Plata. “Because Mexico also generates North America-wide economic development. I can speak for what I know best and only in this region, only in the south of the state of Veracruz, we import from the US around 1.3 million tonnes/year of chemicals and petrochemicals, resulting in billions of imports. The figures are important both ways and this will be brought to a potential negotiating table.” SHEINBAUM AND TRUMPA fascinating aspect for the years to come will be the personal relationship between the US and Mexican presidents, if any – Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum could not be more different ideologically. Sheinbaum’s backing of a supermajority in parliament of two-thirds may cause further friction going forward on top of that caused by the approval on 11 September of a controversial judicial reform which is opposed from many fronts. The US ambassador to Mexico has publicly sounded the alarm about Morena’s judicial reform (see statement here), as did the US chemicals trade group the American Chemistry Council (ACC) and nine other industrial peers who wrote to the US cabinet to “convey their concern” about the proposals. “Regarding the judicial reform, we have the basis for the state of law in the Constitution, and that is a framework that provides certainty,” said Plata. “The devil is in the details, and in coming weeks and months we’ll evidently have to pay attention in the secondary stages of the reform’s debate in parliament, which must be open to listen to the specialists,” said Plata. The Braskem Idesa executive preferred to bring the conversation back to Mexico’s 2026 challenge. One-party Morena reforms allowing, Plata said the current Mexican cabinet would head into a potential USMCA renegotiation in a strong position. “We are in a good position to negotiate, now more than ever, and this is because as a country we are in much better place than we were at in 1994, when Mexico signed NAFTA. At the time, the US and Mexico did not have the solid trade relationship they have today,” he said. “On the Mexican side, many things have changed for the better. Since the 1990s, we have signed more than 50 free trade agreements (FTAs) and the state has now excellent trade negotiators. As an industry and as a country, we are well prepared to sit at the table and reach a good outcome in 2026.” – ICIS will publish on Wednesday (13 November) the second part of this interview, focusing on Sheinbaum’s domestic policies towards chemicals. As President-Elect, she approached the industry and travelled to its Veracruz hub, gaining praise from Plata as well as other industrial groups. As President, is she keeping up that focus on fostering chemicals? Plata said she is – Read this Insight article for wider analysis on how new trade policies in the US could hit the Mexican economy Interview article by Jonathan Lopez
12-Nov-2024
Shell wins appeal in Dutch emissions case
LONDON (ICIS)–The Netherlands court ruling mandating that Shell cut its total carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 has been thrown out, the oil and gas major said on Tuesday. The original 2021 verdict had mandated that Shell’s emissions reduction targets also apply to its scope 3 emissions, which relate to the CO2 generated by customers downstream of a business from the use of its products. At the time of the original case, Shell has pledged to cut emissions by 50% compared to 2016 levels by 2030, but that target only referred to scope 1 and 2 emissions. Th company shifted its tax base to the UK and dropped the “Royal Dutch” from its name shortly after the original verdict. The Netherlands’ Court of Appeal in the Hague overturned the ruling on Tuesday. In a written statement on the verdict, the court stated that the decision to overturn the original verdict due to “insufficient consensus in climate science on a specific reduction percentage to which an individual company like Shell should adhere.” “The court was unable to establish that the social standard of care entails an obligation for Shell to reduce its CO2 emissions by 45%, or some other percentage,” the court added. The original case was brought by Dutch environmental group Milieudefensie. The push for Shell to cut scope 3 emissions by 2030 would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on overall national emissions-reduction, the court added. “Shell could meet that obligation by ceasing to trade in the fuels it purchases from third parties. Other companies would then take over that trade. This would consequently not result in a reduction in CO2 emissions,” the court said. Shell estimates that by 2023 it had achieved 60% of its target to cut scope 1 and 2 emissions in half by 2030. Thumbnail image: The Hague Court of Appeal rules on the Shell emissions-reduction case on 12 November (Source: Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock)
12-Nov-2024
German economic outlook bleaker in November after government collapse, Trump victory
LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s economic outlook grew more pessimistic in November following the collapse of the country’s coalition government and Donald Trump’s victory in the US election. An assessment of the current economic situation in Europe’s largest chemicals producer was also bleaker, economic research group ZEW said on Tuesday. Its November, economic sentiment indicator fell by 5.7 points from the previous month to 7.4 points. ZEW’s indicator for the current situation was also down, by 4.5 points to -91.4 points. “Economic expectations for Germany have been overshadowed by Trump’s victory and the collapse of the German government coalition,” ZEW president Achim Wambach said in a statement. “Economic sentiment has declined – and the outcome of the US presidential election is likely to be the main reason for this. The fact that economic expectations for the USA are clearly rising, while economic sentiment for China and the eurozone is falling, supports this view,” Wambach added. The ZEW president also pointed to some optimism with expectations of improving economic prospects for Germany due to upcoming snap elections after the collapse of its coalition government on 7 November. For the eurozone, the group’s economic sentiment indicator fell by 7.6 points to 12.5 points, while the current situation index remained in negative territory at -43.8 points, down by 3.0 points from the previous month.
12-Nov-2024
Ishiba stays on as Japan PM; pledges $65bn semiconductor/AI support
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will remain in his post following a snap election, despite the setback suffered by his Liberal Democratic Party, which lost majority control of parliament in October. Support for semiconductors meant to capitalize on demand, provide cushion against geopolitical shocks Japan Oct consumer prices up 1.8% year on year Central bank may hike interest rate to meet inflation target Ishiba secured 221 votes of the 465-seat lower house, winning the 11 November elections to remain as Japan’s head of government. He won against former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda who is the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party. Upon winning, Ishiba pledged more than yen (Y) 10 trillion ($65 billion) in support of Japan’s semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) sector by fiscal year 2030 amid geopolitical risks and trade shocks, notably between the US and China. Having a strong domestic semiconductor industry would loosen Japan's reliance on imports and meet rising demand overseas. The plan includes proposed legislations to support mass production of next-generation chips, with beneficiaries including Japanese semiconductor company Rapidus, headquartered in the northern Japanese city of Hokkaido, according to Reuters. In 2023, Japan had unveiled a Y2 trillion plan to support its domestic chip industry as the AI boom was fueling demand. POLICY INTEREST RATE HIKE POSSIBLE Meanwhile, Ishiba also unveiled cash handouts to help low-income households with disaster preparedness and deal with higher prices. Household spending in October dropped by 1.1% year on year, according to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Core consumer prices for the month increased by 1.8% over the same period, official data showed. Eyes will be on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on 18 and 19 December, with an interest rate hike possible amid strong downward pressure on the Japanese yen. At 08:00 GMT, the yen was trading at Y153.83 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The recent strength of the US dollar followed the re-election of Donald Trump as US president. Trump is pushing for imposition of more tariffs on foreign goods entering the world’s biggest economy. A weaker yen supports exports but discourages imports. The BoJ is expected to hike its policy rates from 0.25%, in line with its target to keep inflation at 2% for 2024, Japan securities firm Nomura in a research note on 8 November. “We believe… events will pave the way to a virtuous cycle between wages and prices, leading to the BoJ hiking the policy rate in December 2024,” Nomura said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee ($1 = Y153.83)
12-Nov-2024
UPDATE: Fire at Indian Oil’s Gujarat refinery kills two – reports
MUMBAI (ICIS)–A fire that erupted at Indian Oil Corp’s (IOC) Gujarat refinery in western India on 11 November has killed two people as of Tuesday morning, according to media reports. The blaze occurred at around 3:30pm local time (10:00 GMT) on 11 November at a benzene storage tank at the refinery, the company said in a statement. A blast at the tank caused the fire, which spread to two adjoining storage tanks, according to local police inspector A B Mori. A person injured in the fire died at the hospital, bringing the death toll to two, news daily Economic Times reported quoting police officials. A third injured person is currently undergoing treatment at a local hospital and is stable, they said. The fire raged overnight before being completely extinguished early Tuesday morning, a company source said. Following the fire, the refinery’s fluid circulation was halted and other storage tanks were being cooled down to prevent the blaze from spreading further, Vadodara police commissioner Narasimha Komar said during a media interaction on 11 November. Indian Oil is currently investigating the cause of the incident and will continue to monitor the situation, the company official said. (add details throughout) Initial reporting by Fanny Zhang
12-Nov-2024
Trump to bring limited tariffs; higher growth, rates – economists
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Under US President Donald Trump, US chemical companies will unlikely see the full-blown tariffs that he has proposed during his campaign, but they will operate under a faster growing economy with higher inflation and interest rates that will settle at an elevated rate, economists at Oxford Economics said on Monday. Oxford is forecasting what it calls a limited Trump scenario, under which his administration will not fully adopt the policies he proposed during his campaign. Tariffs will be limited, targeted and phased in, while Congress will limit growth in the government deficit by restraining some of his tax cuts and spending measures. Oxford's baseline scenario for 2025 does not change much because it is assuming that Trump will focus most of his first year in office on extending the tax cuts of his earlier administration, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist for Oxford Economics. He made his comments during a presentation. The consultancy's forecast for 2025 GDP is a tenth of a point higher versus its estimate in October, he said. Inflation will rise by a tenth of a point in 2025. Trump is inheriting a strong economy, so there is little risk of recession. In these initial years, the biggest effect on the US economy will be tax cuts, and these should increase growth in GDP, said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist for Oxford. After 2026, Oxford assumes Trump will adopt some of his immigration restrictions, and it is expecting GDP growth to fall below its earlier forecast. Stricter immigration policies will reduce the supply of labor and slow down the consumption of goods and services. LIMITED TARIFFSOxford expects the Trump administration will not impose the widespread tariffs it proposed during its campaign, which included 60% duties on Chinese imports and baseline tariffs of 10-20% on all imports. Yaros said these campaign proposals were likely negotiating tactics. Sweet expects that Trump will require Congress to pass some of his tariffs, and legislators will not pass such high rates, Sweet said. In other cases, advisors and trade representatives will restrain Trump. For China, Trump will likely impose tariffs of 25% on major categories, such as machinery, electronics and chemicals, Yaros said. For the EU, Canada and Mexico, Trump will likely impose very targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, base metals and motor vehicles, Yaros said. For Canada and Mexico in particular, Trump will unlikely adopt measures that will threaten the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade agreement that his administration signed during his first term. That trade deal was one of the signature achievements of Trump's administration, so he will not want to pursue policies that will threaten the upcoming renewal of that agreement, Yaros said. While the tariffs will be limited, they will still be a drag on the economy by nudging inflation higher, reducing real consumer income, tempering consumer spending and encouraging the misallocation of resources, Yaros said. LIMITED TARIFFS REDUCE RETALIATION RISK FOR CHEMSOxford's scenario will limit the risk of countries imposing retaliatory tariffs on US exports. US chemical producers were vulnerable to such tariffs because they purposely added capacity for export over the years, particularly for polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The magnitude of these exports and the existence of a global glut in plastics and chemicals would make US chemical exports a likely target for retaliatory tariffs. On the import side, the US does have deficits in key commodity chemicals, such as benzene. Targeted tariffs could carve out exceptions for benzene was well as other chemicals in which the US has a trade deficit, such as methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and melamine. Targeted tariffs will likely rule out duties on imports of oil. US refineries rely on imports of heavier grades of oil to optimize the operations of some of their units. US shale oil makes up nearly all of the growth in the nation's crude production, and that oil is made up of light grades. Meanwhile, tariffs could shield some chemicals from competition, such as epoxy resins. CONGRESS MAY LIMIT GROWTH IN DEFICITOxford pointed out that some moderate Republicans could restrain some of Trump's tax and spending proposals to limit growth in the government deficit, Yaros said. Other economists have expressed concerns that the US will issue larger amounts of government debt to fund the growing deficit. That would lead to a cascade effect that could ultimately increase rates for US mortgages, which would slow down the housing market and the plastics and chemicals connected to that market. Still, all of Oxford's scenarios forecast a rise in the government deficit. SLOWER RATE CUTS BY FEDOxford expects Trump's policies will be inflationary, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of cuts on their benchmark federal funds rate. It expects the federal funds rate will settle at 3.125%, versus its forecast of 2.75% that was made in October. TRUMP WILL PRESERVE MOST RENEWABLE TAX CREDITSTrump will likely preserve most of the tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) because most of them benefitted states controlled by his party, the Republicans, Yaros said. These include tax credits on renewable fuels, renewable power, hydrogen and carbon capture. The exception will include incentives for electric vehicles (EV), which Trump had singled out during his campaign, Yaros said. OXFORD'S FORECASTThe following chart shows Oxford's new baseline forecast and compares it with a scenario under which the policies of the previous administration are maintained. The following chart shows Oxford's forecast that assumes Trump will fully adopt all of his campaign proposals. This is not the consultancy's baseline forecast because it does not expect such a full-blown Trump scenario will happen. Thumbnail shows the US Capitol. Image by photo by Lucky-photographer.
11-Nov-2024
Latin America stories: weekly summary
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 8 November. Braskem’s US sales could benefit from higher tariffs on automotive – CFOBraskem’s operations in the US could benefit if president-elect Donald Trump hikes import tariffs related to the automotive sector, the CFO at the Brazilian polymers major said this week. Brazil's Braskem lobbying for ADDs on Chinese PVC to be extended – CFOBraskem is lobbying the Brazilian government to extend antidumping duties (ADDs) on China-produced polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the CFO at the Brazilian polymers major said on Thursday. INSIGHT: Braskem’s tariffs-infused optimism risks turning into complacencyManagement at Brazil’s polymers major Braskem sounded on Thursday the most optimistic in many quarters after the Brazilian government – which indirectly has a stake on the company – sharply increased import tariffs to protect, in large part, Braskem’s market share. Mexico’s Braskem Idesa completes 87% of ethane terminalConstruction of Braskem Idesa’s ethane import terminal in Mexico had reached around 87% of physical completion as of September, the Brazilian petrochemicals major said during its Q3 earnings release and conference call on Thursday. Brazil central bank hikes rates 50 bps to 11.25%, seeks ‘credible’ fiscal policyBrazil's central bank monetary policy committee (Copom) voted unanimously late on Wednesday to hike the main interest rate benchmark, the Selic, by 50 basis points to 11.25%, to fend off rising inflation and a depreciating Brazilian real. Chile’s manufacturing output falls in September, overall activity flatChile’s manufacturing output fell in September by 1.1%, month on month, the central bank’s monthly report about economic activity said this week. Brazilian police indict 20 in Braskem mining disaster caseBrazil's Federal Police (PF) have closed their probe into Braskem's rock salt mining operations in Maceió, state of Alagoas, naming 20 individuals as suspects. MOVES: Braskem appoints Roberto Ramos as CEOBraskem is to appoint Roberto Ramos CEO, effective 1 December, the Brazilian petrochemicals major said on Monday. PRICINGLatAm PE international prices stable to soft on competitive US exportsInternational polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as stable to soft across Latin American (LatAm) countries on the back of competitive US export offers. LatAm PP domestic prices fall in Chile, Colombia, Mexico tracking lower feedstock costs, weak demandDomestic polypropylene (PP) prices fell in Chile, Colombia and Mexico, tracking lower feedstock costs and weak demand. In other Latin American (LatAm) countries, prices were unchanged this week.
11-Nov-2024
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