Global Debt At Unsustainable Levels As We Wait For Trigger Factor

By John Richardson

THE whole point about debt is that it should be sustainable. You should only lend or borrower money if you are entirely convinced that future economic conditions – i.e. future demand – justify your commitments.

Nice theory, …

Continue Reading

Next Polyethylene Downcycle: Risk That History Will Repeat Itself

By John Richardson

WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database:…

Continue Reading

China’s 19th Party Congress: Stronger President Xi Good For Petchems Growth

By John Richardson

I SEE three Scenarios for Chinese economic growth, and so of course petrochemicals demand growth, in 2018-2025. See below where I detail how these three Scenarios would affect growth in demand for polypropylene (PP).

But first of …

Continue Reading

Threat To US Polyethylene From President Trump’s Iran Decision

By John Richardson

THE geopolitical and economic relationship between China and Iran was already very strong even before Donald Trump decertified the Iranian nuclear deal. Now, though, Iran and China could draw even closer. This could pose a major threat …

Continue Reading

Rising Trade Tensions Could Threaten US Petchems Exports

By John Richardson

THE Trump administration is holding out against a capital increase for the World Bank unless the bank reforms the way that it lends money to China, according to the FT.

China is the World Bank’s biggest borrower. …

Continue Reading

India Creates 20,000 New Jobs A Month When It Needs One Million

By John Richardson

WHEN Narendra Modi was campaigning to be India’s Prime Minister in 2013 he promised to create 10m new jobs every year.

But in July 2014-December 2016, after Modi had become PM, 614,000 jobs were created in India’s …

Continue Reading

China Continues Deleveraging With Reforms Set To Accelerate….

...global risks remain elevated and so beware of complacency

By John Richardson

THE conventional view is that China has stimulated its economy to perfection ahead of the important 19th National Party Congress which begins in Beijing on 18 October.

The …

Continue Reading

How China Will Help South Asia Maximise Its Demographic Dividend….

….as the OBOR region, which includes South Asia, pushes towards complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency

By John Richardson

SOUTH ASIA (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) is seeing around 1m people join its workforce every month, with this potential demographic dividend …

Continue Reading

China To Now Raise Ethylene Capacity By 84% As Self-Sufficiency Drive Accelerates

By John Richardson

SINCE my last update on 18 September, our ICIS China team have discovered a further 2.4m tonnes/year of ethylene capacity being planned in China via the steam cracker process (see the updated table above, with the changes …

Continue Reading

Four Billion Tonnes of Plastic Waste And Counting: The Threat To Petchems Growth

By John Richardson

THE world will have produced a total of 6.9bn tonnes of the 11 synthetic polymers I’ve detailed in the above chart between 1978, when our data begins, and the end of 2017.

Using the assumptions behind an …

Continue Reading