In November 2021, the premium for overseas PP injection grade prices over prices in China reached a historic peak of $408/tonne. But in 1-18 November 2022, the premium was $113/tonne. Premiums have fallen in every month since April this year, resulting in a decline in China exports.
Asian Chemical Connections
Little prospect of China recovery in 2023 as zero-COVID, property downturn set to continue
CFR China PP injection grade price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs averaged $546/tonne in 2003-2021 compared wit $251/tonne so far this year – a 118% difference. When you consider China’s economic fundamentals, it is unrealistic to expect a recovery to the long-term historic average in 2023.
Why European chemicals can emerge from this crisis as a winner
IT REALLY ISN’T doom and gloom if you take the longer-term view. Instead, for the chemical companies with the right strategies, the opportunities to build new sustainable business models are huge. The winners will make an awful lot of money while also doing the right things for humanity and our natural environment.
China’s real estate rescue and zero-COVID tinkering will make little difference
China’s real estate rescue only involves shoring-up lenders. The property bubble will not and cannot be reflated. Most of the zero-COVID rules remain in place, and will likely stay in place well into 2023
China HDPE: 2023 demand and net import outlook
China’s HDPE in demand in 2023 could fall by as much as 4% over 2022. Next year’s net imports may slip to as low as 3.8m tonnes from around 5.7m tonnes in 2022.
China’s PP exports decline, but this is only a temporary reprieve for the other exporters
The January-September data suggested full-year China PP exports to these top ten destinations 75,543 tonnes fewer than the January-August numbers. And the January-September numbers implied total 2021 China exports to all destinations of 1.47m tonnes compared with January-August that indicated 1.58m tonnes.
Overseas HDPE price premiums over China remain at historic highs, but maybe for not much longer
HDPE film grade price premiums for selected countries and regions over China recovered in September and October of this year. In 2020, premiums averaged just $36/tonne compared with $248/tonne in January 2021-October 2022.
China PP demand and net import outlook for 2023
China[s PP demand growth in 2023 could be as low as minus 3% as it swings into a 2.6m tonnes net export position from this year’s likely net imports of around 3.4m tonnes.
China’s long-term GDP growth risks and polymers demand
Cumulative downside demand in the above chart would total 5bn – 91m tonnes lower than our base case.
China chemicals growth and the 20th Communist Party Congress
China’s share of global demand growth in the seven big resins jumped to an astonishing 67% in 2002-2021. Northeast Asia ex-China’s share of demand fell to minus 1% with Europe and North America worth just 4% and 2% of growth respectively. The chemicals world had become dangerously lopsided.
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