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SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Mexico’s chemicals fortunes seem to be turning for the better after the country was spared from the most punitive US’ import taxes, according to an executive at chemicals distributor Entec. Pedro Escalona, sales director at Entec Polymers, a subsidiary of global distribution major Ravago, said demand for most polymers has notably picked up in the past weeks, which were on hold now flowing to more optimistic customers. Among the main polymers, only polypropylene (PP) remains in the doldrums, said Escalona, haunted by low prices for the monomer. Overall though sentiment is on the up and has been so especially since 2 April, when the US announced sweeping tariffs but spared its trade partners within the USMCA free trade zone, Mexico and Canada. Prior tariffs in some sectors, however, remain, and Escalona said automotive seems for now the most problematic sector. “For the rest, people seem to start assuming Mexico will be spared from the worst possible scenario,” said Escalona. WHAT ONE MONTH CAN CHANGESpeaking to Escalona, practically everything seems to have changed in one month, with exception of PP. In an interview with ICIS during the plastics trade fair Plastimagen in Mexico City in mid-March, the Entec executive painted a doom-and-gloom picture of both chemicals and wider manufacturing, with falling prices and domestic and overseas woes mounting. As of Thursday, 24 April, this is what he had to say: “Even a month ago, or even less, even two weeks ago, there were a lot of people holding orders, saying they were unsure whether they would need the product for May, or even for June. Some large clients, while not cancelling any orders, were starting to say they may need to lower consumption going forward,” said Escalona. “But in the last few weeks, there is more confidence in general, and people are already confident in going out to make purchases. Everyone seems to be more optimistic in that we don't think anything will finally happen that will significantly affect Mexico’s economy.” A stone on the positive story, however, remains the large, petrochemicals intensive automotive sector on which US President Donald Trump had imposed tariffs prior to 2 April. Analysts have said the tariffs, in their current form, could greatly dent the sector’s competitiveness. But sources in chemicals remain optimistic Mexico could use this chance to increase its USMCA compliance, mostly related to rules of origin which would at the same increase its manufacturing stance and integrate it even more with the US economy. As the US tries to contain China’s formidable rise in global supply chains, other sources have said the US would shoot itself on the foot going against Canada and Mexico, economies which are now well integrated within the North American free trade zone. The battle should be, they said, North America as a block versus the other large trading blocs. “Automotive still has over its head a lot of uncertainty, because there are some issues that haven't been fully defined yet regarding automotive components. That's the only one that still has some uncertainty,” said Escalona. “Demand is not the best it could be, but it is not too bad either. PP is still suffering from low prices for the monomer, which is expected to fall further. But for the rest of plastics, PE [polyethylene], PS [polystyrene], and for PET [polyethylene terephthalate] there has been some notable price rises.” Escalona said that US companies must have done their important bit of lobbying to the Trump administration about how harming tariffs on Mexico could be for them, as well. The absence of Mexico and Canada on the board Trump exhibited on 2 April quickly raised the prospects that, behind the scenes, renegotiation of the USMCA deal is well underway, an assessment Escalona deemed possible. But equally, he said there may be starting to be a realization within the Trump administration that punitive, sudden import tariffs to certain countries – not least China – would deprive the US of key markets it needs to sell materials of which it is oversupplied. “[Very punitive tariffs on Mexico] Just wasn't convenient for the US. We’ll need to see what happens, but I think the US is also going to have to sit down and negotiate with China. The US is full of raw materials it exports to China – monomers such ethane, propane, benzene… That’s why prices are falling,” said Escalona. “There are many things they plan for, and the initial strategy was to renegotiate with tariffs as a pressure measure. But clearly, they are going to have to reconsider this and fine-tune several aspects.” DOMESTIC FRONT: LESS OPTIMISMWhile most analysts think Mexico has done good progress on issues key for Trump, such migration at the border and stricter measures to control fentanyl trade – a powerful drug which has caused havoc across the US – the domestic policies of President Claudia Sheinbaum remain a red flag for many chemicals players. With a declared intention to expand the welfare state, Mexico may be turning into the ‘nanny state’ which does not incentivize competitiveness, some sources said at Plastimagen. Moreover, fiscal policy has been loose under Sheinbaum’s predecessor, also from the left-leaning Morena party. The expansion in the welfare state was mostly funded by debt, and fiscal deficits were recurrent. Sheinbaum has promised to remedy that and seems more open to the necessary private investments needed in Mexico to propel it to be a key part in the nearshoring trend – North American companies bringing manufacturing facilities closer to home. But Sheinbaum has ploughed through other measures in parliament which are worrying business. Thanks to the supermajority of two thirds of seats in Parliament voters granted Morena in June 2024 – and propelled Sheinbaum to the top with 60% of popular vote – the government approved a judicial reform, which most analysts agree is to weaken the rule of law, in a country much needed of stronger rule of law. A key measure in the bill was that judges would be elected by voters, which has sparked fears the well-funded and strong organized crime will have it easier to silence the judiciary. Escalona, not impressed, said those elections for judges have started and told how he feels weird seeing advertisements by candidates on boards or media outlets. Seeing adverts to vote for judges clearly does not feel right, he came to say. “We have had plenty of politicians who were not prepared or educated for the positions they were chosen for. While it’s not optimal, it can be expected in a democracy. But the job of a judge, and in country like Mexico, is a completely different matter,” he said. “And, invariably, you can see all kinds of people running to be judges. It’s tremendous. We’ll need to see how this pans out, but everyone seems to agree that this will weaken the rule of law – and that is not good for economic development and stability." Interview article by Jonathan López

24-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The chemical industry is facing demand-stifling tariffs just as it is in one of its longest downturns in decades, the CEO of US-based Dow said on Thursday. Dow expects Q2 sales will be about $10.4 billion, down from $10.9 billion reported in Q2 2024. The company has intensified its cost cutting measures, announced 1,500 job cuts and delayed its Path2Zero project in Canada. "The reality is our industry is in one of the most protracted down cycles in decades, facing the third consecutive year of below 3% GDP growth," said Dow CEO Jim Fitterling. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. "This has been further exacerbated by geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns, which are weighing on demand globally." Dow highlighted tariffs, which will delay when the chemical industry returns to mid-cycle earnings, said Jeff Tate, Dow chief financial officer. Those tariffs could change trade flows, and could squeeze Dow's margins. Tighter margins could partially offset the benefits from demand, which Dow still expects will rise. TARIFFS DELAYING PURCHASES, STIFLING DEMANDThe tariffs have caused customers and consumers to delay purchases, Fitterling said. "We're just in an environment right now where in the marketplace, if you look at downstream demand, it doesn't matter if it's a consumer or one of our customers or somebody in the B2B world, they're all just kind of taking a wait and see approach. And that has that has an impact on what we think the long term," he said. "Right now, all this activity on tariffs is just stifling the demand." HIGH US MORTGAGE RATES DELAYING HOUSING RECOVERYElevated interest rates for home loans have made housing less affordable for consumers. As a result, home sales have remained depressed, and has dragged down demand for paints, coatings, polyurethanes and other chemical products used in house construction. The slump in house sales is also lowering demand for appliances, furniture and other durable goods because consumers tend to buy these when they move. Fewer home sales mean fewer moves. Tate noted that March marked the 14th consecutive month of year-on-year declines in building permits. SLOWER GROWTH IN AUTO DEMANDGrowth in automobile demand and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) are slowing, said Karen Carter, Dow chief operating officer. The spike that took place in the US in March was the result of consumers making purchases before tariffs kicked in. China is relying on incentives to prop up its market. In the EU, February new car registrations fell by their largest amount since September 2024. PHARMACEUTICALS, DATA CENTERS REMAIN BRIGHT SPOTSDow continues to see pockets of growth in pharmaceuticals and data centers. Electronics and personal care applications have proven to be resilient end market for the company's Performance Materials & Coatings segment. Q2 OUTLOOKThe following table summarizes Dow's Q2 outlook. (Thumbnail shows polyethylene, a product made by Dow. Image by ICIS.)

24-Apr-2025

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Two oil refineries will be built in India as part of Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investment pledged to the south Asian nation which would cover cooperation in multiple areas, including energy and petrochemicals. High-level joint task force finalizes plans for joint cooperation in multiple sectors Both countries to develop supply chains, projects linked to energy sector Green hydrogen infrastructure collaboration plans on The projects, which will be built in partnership with the Indian government, and agreements to enhance cooperation with the world’s biggest crude exporter across various industries were announced on 22 April, during a state visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Saudi Arabia. Collaborations are also planned in the pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, technology, fintech, digital infrastructure, telecommunications, manufacturing and health sectors, among others, according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) of India on 23 April. In 2023, the two countries agreed to set up a joint committee to expedite Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investments in India which was announced in February 2019. A high-level task force set up by the two countries has now finalised plans in multiple areas which will allow both countries to begin work soon, the PMO stated. The countries will also work towards developing supply chains and projects linked to the energy sector, it added. The two nations have agreed to enhance cooperation in the supply of crude oil and its derivatives, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the government statement said, adding that collaborations in the field of green hydrogen, including developing hydrogen transport and storage technologies, would also be explored. Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth largest trading partner and is the third largest exporter of crude oil to the south Asian country. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, India’s goods imports from Saudi Arabia stood at $31.4 billion, while exports to the nation were at around $11.6 billion, official data showed. Its major exports to Saudi Arabia include petroleum products, engineering goods, rice, chemicals, textiles, food products while imports from Saudi include crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), fertilisers, chemicals, plastics, among others. RATNAGIRI MEGA REFINERY PROJECT IN QUESTION About seven years ago, Saudi Arabia signed a deal with Indian refiners to build a mega refinery and petrochemical complex in the west coast of India, but the project hit a snag. The 60 million tonne/year project in the Maharastra state which was estimated to cost $44 billion to build was supposed to be commissioned by 2022, faced delays due to land acquisition problems. Opposition to the project continues and there has been no breakthrough in discussions with villagers in the area. There was no official announcement from the central government on the fate of the proposed Ratnagiri mega-refinery and petrochemical project. Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, in a February 2025 interview at an Indian daily Economic Times, had said that instead of one mega refinery project, three small ones will be built – one in Ratnagiri and the other two will be in two other states in southern India. The refineries will each have a 20 million tonne/year capacity, he said. Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri in January this year announced plans to build smaller refineries at different locations in the country. Focus article by Priya Jestin

24-Apr-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at what companies need to do to prepare for Trump’s tariff war. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eni’s chemical business reported an adjusted operating loss of €243 million in the first quarter of 2025 on a continuing downturn in the European chemical sector amid economic headwinds and pressures from US and Asian players, the Italy-headquartered producer said on Thursday. Chemicals € million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Proforma adjusted EBIT – 334 – 53 Eni's chemicals business is managed by Versalis. Sales of chemical products fell by 7% year on year in the first quarter amid lower demand and plant shutdowns. Plant utilization rates averaged 54% year on year in the first quarter, a 5% drop from the same period last year. Margins remained weak across the board as commodity prices could not offset feedstock and energy input expenses, “due to European headwinds, sluggish economic activity, and competitive pressures from players with better cost structures”, the company said.

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea and Vietnam are stepping up efforts to clamp down on illegal transshipments of goods to the US from third countries, amid US concerns that third-country shipments are being used to circumvent tariffs imposed on China. The Korea Customs Service has established an investigation team to crack down on illegal transshipments to align with US tariff policies, it said in a statement on 21 April. 145% tariffs on China by the US has led to suppliers seeking to move trade elsewhere, but cases of origin fraud were detected South Korea. The agency identified multiple cases where Chinese goods were transshipped through South Korea, falsely labeled as Korean-made, and exported to the US to evade high tariffs, including anti-dumping duties, the statement said. It highlighted 75% of detected cases in early 2025 involving exports to the US, with a focus on high-value goods, particularly batteries and raw materials, used in production and export. One highlighted case involved a Chinese-established company in South Korea for the import of 1.2 million Chinese-made batteries, valued at Korean won (W) 74 billion that were falsely labelled as Korean-made. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) issued a directive on 15 April focusing on strengthening the management of goods’ origin to counter fraud and protect the country’s reputation as an exporter, the government website reported. It highlighted more stringent checks at customs to comply with free trade agreement (FTA) origin criteria, maintain trade benefits, and avoid anti-dumping or anti-subsidy investigations. Strict penalties will be issued to those that attempt to circumvent tariffs via illegal transshipments and origin fraud, the directive stated. Vietnam has been slapped with 46% “reciprocal” tariffs by the Trump administration, while South Korea received 25% tariffs, with both currently paused until early July. Both countries are currently engaging in urgent talks with US trade representatives as the tariffs threaten to harm global economic growth significantly. South Korea’s GDP contracted by 0.1% year on year in the first three months of 2025 amid political chaos and a trade war between the US and China, the Bank of Korea (BoK) said on Thursday. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's economy shrank by 0.1% year on year in the first quarter as domestic consumption remained in the doldrums amid a prolonged political crisis, while exports fell on US tariffs, central bank data showed on Thursday. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first three months of 2025, shrinking for the first time since Q2 2024, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. Goods exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy slipped by 0.8% year on year in the first quarter, reversing the 2.6% growth in Q4 2024. Latest data for the first 20 days of April point to further weakness for South Korea's exports, falling by 5.2% year on year. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene, toluene, and styrene. Private consumption, accounting for roughly half of the country's GDP, increased by 0.9% year over year in the first quarter, lower than the 1.6% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Manufacturing expanded at a slower pace of 0.4% year on year in the first quarter, from the 2.2% growth in the last three months of 2024. South Korea's economy is facing headwinds on multiple fronts. The country is still reeling from the political chaos triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise martial law declaration on 3 December, which lasted just a few hours, and ultimately led to his removal from office on 4 April. South Korea will hold a snap election on 3 June to replace Yoon after the country’s Constitutional Court unanimously upheld a decision by the legislature to impeach Yoon. The trade-dependent economy is also grappling with the impact of the US' broad tariff scheme. A 25% US reciprocal tariff announced for South Korea that was supposed to take effect on 9 April was suspended by US President Donald Trump for 90 days. During this temporary suspension, South Korea is subject to the 10% baseline tariff and its auto industry remains affected by a 25% tariff on automobiles, which is separate from the reciprocal tariff and not paused. The central bank forecasts a slower GDP growth of 1.5% for South Korea this year, after posting a 2.0% growth in 2024. BoK governor Rhee Chang-yong on 17 April, however, said that the growth forecast might still be too optimistic, citing Trump's tariff policy and its sectoral tariffs, as well as levies on China, which is South Korea’s biggest market. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan on 1 November 2023.(YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

24-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fitch Ratings lowered its global automotive sector outlook to “deteriorating” from “neutral”, and lowered its US sales forecast by 6.7% to 15.2 million from 16.3 million because of US tariffs on auto imports. “Tariffs are likely to lead to production cuts and increased costs, potentially driving issuers’ profitability,” the ratings agency said. On 26 March, the US imposed a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and certain auto parts, which went into effect on 2 April despite a 90-day delay on other announced tariffs. “This measure poses a significant risk for automakers importing vehicles manufactured in Mexico, Canada, Japan, Korea and Germany to the US,” Fitch said. Patrick Manzi, chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), said that if tariffs go into effect as planned, he expects vehicle prices to increase, sales to decrease, and production to fall – although the degree is difficult to quantify. US March sales of new light vehicles jumped 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February as buyers rushed to make purchases ahead of the automotive tariffs. ICIS senior economist for global chemicals Kevin Swift said the surge was likely from consumers and fleet owners pulling forward purchases to beat the new tariffs. Some respondents in the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book agreed with Swift’s assessment. Some auto dealers in the Cleveland Fed region reported that the threat of tariffs drove customers to make purchases before potential price increases. “Several retailers had difficulty forecasting the impacts of policy and economic uncertainty on consumer demand, and they worried that consumer spending would pull back further,” the Cleveland Fed said. The Beige Book is a summary of US economic activity during the past six weeks among the 12 Federal Reserve districts with data for the most recent report collected before 14 April. Fitch’s action comes just after the ratings agency cut its GDP growth assumptions for the US by 0.4 percentage points in March and a further 0.5 percentage points more recently in a special update to its quarterly outlook. “Although we expect direct tariff implications to vary among automakers, depending on their production footprint, pricing power and supply chain configuration, no issuer will be fully immune to declining consumer confidence and lower automotive demand,” Fitch said. Fitch expects global automakers to increase selling prices to account for the tariffs, with some that are unable to raise prices sufficiently making “painful adjustments” to production and sales plans. AUTO PARTS SUPPLY CHAINS Fitch said impacts of tariffs on auto parts suppliers are less transparent because of complexities in their supply chains, including productions hits from delays. This impact will be partially offset as tariffs are currently delayed for imports that are compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. Fitch estimates that about 60% of auto parts are USMCA-compliant. Tariff-related uncertainties may lead to fluctuations in production volumes, which could weigh on chemicals demand. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives, Swift said. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. EVs and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail image shows autos on a lot in Colorado. Photo by David Zalubowski/AP/Shutterstock

23-Apr-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals imports and exports to and from the EU increased in February, according to the latest data released by Eurostat on Wednesday. The segment for chemicals and related products recorded the highest growth  in trade balance of those outlined in February compared to a year prior. While imports rose by 16%, exports increased by more than a third compared to February 2024. Table shows monthly change in €billions compared to the previous year.Source: Eurostat European chemicals producers have been struggling to remain competitive with other regions, due to a complex regulatory landscape and higher energy prices. The increase in exports demonstrates resilient demand for specialised materials made in Europe, especially if those products cannot be manufactured elsewhere. This builds on the growth in January, when the chemicals segment was the only one to record an increase compared to the previous year. Eurostat’s initial estimates is that the overall EU trade balance in goods with the rest of the world stood at a surplus of €23.0 billion in February, compared to €21.8 billion a year prior. Data from Eurostat is subject to revision following publication.

23-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this video, ICIS analyst Jiayi Chang shares insights into the impact of the US tariff war on the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market in China, highlighting shifts in trade patterns, increased import costs and operational challenges for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. US tariffs halt US-China LPG trade, curbs growth for major US export market LPG market to see adjustments via global supply chain shift Global supply, price mechanisms to drive trade flow rebalance toward new market equilibrium

23-Apr-2025