ACC Surplus May16

Surplus chemical industry capacity reaches 26% as demand slows

Global demand is continuing to slow, yet chemical industry capacity is continuing to ramp up.  As a result, supply gluts are likely to appear in many key areas as we move into the second half of the year.  That is the key conclusion from the latest American Chemistry Council data for global chemical capacity and […]

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Americans drive less as auto market demand patterns change

34m Americans will be driving at least 50 miles this Memorial Day weekend, which marks the start of the summer ”driving season”.  But contrary to popular belief, the average American is driving less these days. The total number of miles driven is still increasing due to the rising US population.  But on an individual basis, people are driving 6% less […]

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India’s car market plateaus as motorbike sales dominate

Motorbikes continue to dominate India’s motor vehicle market, as the chart above shows based on new data from the industry association (India’s year runs from April – March): 16.5m 2-wheelers were sold in the year, up 2% versus 2014-15, and took 2/3rds of the market 2.8m passenger cars were also sold, with volume up 7%, and had a 12% […]

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Oil market fundamentals continue to weaken as Glencore buys

Global oil traders are having lots of fun as oil market volatility ramps up.  Earlier this month, for example, Reuters reported that “Glencore have got big positions all over the place” in North Sea oil markets: They spotted that N Sea production would be sharply reduced in June due to maintenance on the Ekofisk field […]

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Chemical industry is the best indicator of EM outlook – and the outlook is not good

Policymakers would be better off following the fortunes of the chemical industry, if they wanted to forecast the global economy, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Capacity utilisation (CU%) in the chemical industry has long been the best leading indicator for the global economy. The […]

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Restocking boosts Q1 margins for chemical companies

Thank goodness for Janet Yellen, and China’s provincial governments.  That was clearly investors’ thoughts, when they bid up chemical company share prices during Q1.  For as the chart above shows, there was nothing in the fundamentals of supply and demand to suggest economic recovery was finally underway.  Instead, the latest American Chemistry Council data shows […]

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UK’s Brexit referendum is about peace and prosperity

40 years ago, the vast majority of the British people were in favour of joining the European Economic Community. 67% voted in favour, in the 1975 referendum to confirm the UK’s entry.  Virtually all mainstream politicians were in support, with only the left-wing of the Labour Party strongly anti on the grounds that it was […]

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Global cotton markets wait for outcome of China auctions

China’s long-promised cotton auctions have begun this week.  Their outcome will tell us a lot about President Xi Jinping’s ability to force through his New Normal changes in the economy.  It will also, of course, have major impact upon the polyester value chain, given the competition between the 2 fibres. As the slide from the […]

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US house May16

US home-ownership returns to 1960′s levels

US home ownership is back at levels seen briefly in the mid-1980s, and before that in the mid-1960s.  One key issue today is that while the US population is still growing, the younger population has quite a different profile from the Boomer generation, as the Pew Institute have reported. In 1980, only 1 in 10 young Boomers were […]

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Naimi finally allowed to retire, Saudi oil policy stays the same

80-year olds are allowed to retire, even if they have to wait a year for final permission to be given.  But it seems a simple headline saying “Saudi Oil Minister retires after 69 year career” is not “exciting” enough in today’s media world?  So perhaps we can’t be too surprised to find some of the world’s […]

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