The key issue for your Action Plan is to focus on demand. 3 key questions dominate: Will your customers survive the Tariff War? Will your suppliers survive the Tariff War? What can you do to help them survive?
Chemicals and the Economy
Oil prices fall out of their ‘triangle’ as Trump’s trade war risks global recession
The Energy Transition is well underway California can now run for weeks at a time on 100% renewables. But President Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policy is hoping to turn back the clock. Oil markets market volatility is therefore inevitable, and will add to the volatility he has created in the economy and financial markets.
President Trump’s trade war risks crashing the global economy
Clearly, the US is most at risk from all these changes. Its ‘soft power’ depends on its global reputation. And its ‘hard power’ depends on its global alliances. But President Reagan’s warning applies to all of us: “Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.”
Europe may win if tariff war persists’
European producers may end up seeing major benefits. Local demand is clearly set for major expansion as a result of the recent massive German and EU spending packages. And competition will move to a more ‘local-for-local’ basis as tariffs remove the basis for globalisation.
Europe’s new defence and infrastructure spend will be a game-changer for its economy
History shows that moves towards European integration has been turbo-charged by the need to respond to crisis. Or as German philosopher, Friedrich Nietzsche, once noted: “What doesn’t kill me, makes me stronger”.
Brent falls out of its triangle – for the third time
Oil markets are warning of rising economic and political risk. Prudent companies and investors will be preparing for difficult times ahead, whilst still hoping for the best.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” VIadimir Lenin
We are now back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins.
6 ‘Rules for Success’ as tariff wars and Europe’s Clean Industrial Deal begin
The Rules for doing business have to change. As NATO’s leader, Mark Rutte, has warned, Europe needs to “Raise defense spending or start learning Russian”
US natural gas prices surge as La Niña replaces El Niño
Commodity prices tend to go from boom to bust, and back again. The reason is that it takes years to build new capacity. Yet market conditions can change in months. So it would be no surprise at all if US natural gas markets now move back into another boom, and help to set off another round of inflation.
China’s property crash has already destroyed $18tn of household wealth – where next?
Living longer should be a great opportunity for all of us. Today’s problem is that policymakers around the world have refused to accept that demographics are destiny. All of us now have to face the challenge of unwinding the mess they have made.
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