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Chemicals and the Economy

New Normal workshop in Singapore next month

Major changes are underway in demand patterns for chemicals and polymers. They are being driven by demographics. The ‘BabyBoomers’ (those people born between 1946-70 in the major industrial countries) are the richest, and largest, generation the world has ever seen: • As they entered the 25 – 54 age group, they caused an explosion of […]

China’s December surge makes it largest auto market

December was a good month for global auto sales. China’s volume jumped to 1.3 million, as buyers rushed to capture stimulus discounts before they ended. In Beijing, many ‘brought forward’ planned 2011 purchases, in order to beat the new quota system, which aims to reduce congestion by capping 2011 sales at just 240k versus 891k […]

US oil inventories at yet another record level

US crude oil and product stocks have started the year where they finished in 2010. As the black dot on the above chart from Petromatrix shows, they are at yet another seasonal record. In terms of numbers, they are 101 million barrels above 2008 levels, and even 8 million barrels above last year. It is […]

Incoterms 2010 now in effect

Several blog readers have suggested it should highlight the arrival of Incoterms 2010, which took effect from 1 January this year. As always, since first publication in 1936, they have been produced by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). They are important, because they define the terms of delivery for chemicals, and all other traded […]

Wine price rises parallel those for crude oil

Many of the blog’s readers have been known to sample the occasional glass of wine. So it thought new research, from the IMF (International Monetary Fund), on the linkage between higher prices for fine wine and crude oil, might be of general interest. The IMF’s researchers wanted to analyse “the causes of extreme fluctuations in […]

The $600bn man

In October 2008, the blog featured the US Treasury official responsible for running the $700bn TARP rescue fund. He was 35 years old, and just 6 years out of business school. Apparently there was nobody available with more experience to take on the role of “choosing which US financial institutions live, and which die“, during […]

INEOS plans refining/technology JVs with PetroChina

The Falkirk Herald, INEOS’s local newspaper in Scotland, has had to wait a long time for its ‘scoop’ of June 2009 to be confirmed. It had reported then that INEOS was in talks with PetroChina about the future of the Grangemouth refinery. As PetroChina noted at the time, “downstream business has a poor margin nowadays […]

Unemployment hits US auto sales in 2010

As the chart shows, December’s US auto sales (orange line) were the highest monthly level since August 2009’s ‘cash for clunkers’. But it was only achieved via a massive 7% jump in purchase incentives, which were back at Q2 2009 levels of $2700/vehicle. And 2010 was still the second worst year for sales since 1982, […]

Shared Value can unleash next wave of global growth

GE’s then CEO, Jack Welch, launched the Shareholder Value concept in 1981. It has since led many investors to adopt a purely short-term focus on financial metrics, rather than longer-term opportunities. The only problem is that, as Welch admitted 2 years ago, it was “a dumb idea“. Now, one of the world’s great management thinkers, […]

“Rising oil prices threaten economic recovery”, IEA

The blog has gained important support for its view that oil prices are too high. and threaten the current economic recovery. In an interview with the Financial Times, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has spelled out its view that “oil prices are entering a dangerous zone for the global […]

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