A month ago, I suggested that oil prices ‘seem set to move higher in the short-term, with $125/bbl now being talked as a target’. Readers were hopefully not too surprised, therefore, to see prices for Brent and WTI close at this level on Friday night. One of my longer-term forecasts also seems to be coming […]
Mark Twain’s famous quote rather sums up my current feelings about the state of the US economy. This is the most important single indicator of future chemical industry sales. And a couple of months ago, I aligned myself with Warren Buffett in suggesting that the US was probably in recession. Last week, this looked like […]
Spare a thought for the plight of the world’s investment bankers. According to the Financial Times, some minor cutbacks are finally taking place in the extravagant lifestyle to which they have come accustomed: • UBS, having lost $11bn in Q1, has now told its analysts to fly economy on short-haul flights. • Merrill Lynch bankers […]
I noted back in February that China is no longer exporting price deflation, and is instead causing global prices for commodities and manufactured goods to rise. A reader has now kindly sent me an interesting report from Credit Suisse, commenting on the potential inflationary impact of new labour laws in China. This is particularly important […]
After a while, large numbers lose their power to shock. So Bloomberg and the FT have performed a service this week by reminding us of the scale of losses in the financial sector. They calculate that so far, US and European banks have had to raise $216.9bn of new capital. And, of course, whilst this […]
Anthony Bolton’s investment column this weekend contains another nugget of wisdom. Coincidentally, it is linked with Archie Norman’s ‘tip for management’ which I quote below. Bolton is the UK’s most successful fund manager. And he certainly shares Norman’s sense about the need to be humble. In fact, he goes even further, commenting that in his […]
Archie Norman is one of the most successful CEO’s of recent years. When he joined ASDA in 1991, it was a struggling, nearly bankrupt, UK food retailer. 9 years later, it was sold to Wal-Mart, after he had transformed it. Shareholders benefited from an 8-fold increase in the share price over the period, whilst Norman […]
Back in August, as the credit crisis began, I tried to capture the heart of the issues it raised in a few quotes. Many people now believe that it is coming to an end. I am not so sure, and fear it may, in fact, be simply moving from Wall Street to Main Street. If […]
OPEC used to believe that its fortunes were tied to the health of the global economy. But as I noted last month, its current policy is more reminiscent of ‘the difficult times of 1973/4 and 1979/80’. The evidence for this statement is mounting. Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Naimi, said recently that the Kingdom has ‘no […]
Ineos’ 200,000bpd Grangemouth refinery in Scotland is on strike today and tomorrow, over a pension dispute. This will presumably cost the workers 2 days pay. The costs for INEOS and the UK are enormous in comparison. BP, for example, has had to shut down a pipeline that carries 40% of the UK’s oil production, because […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.