The blog has sometimes despaired of the cheer-leading and wishful thinking of too many leading policy-makers. As I argued in the Financial Times in March 2007, before the Crisis began, “they seem to confuse being market-friendly with being friendly to markets“. It therefore welcomes the realism being shown by the UK’s new coalition government. Today, […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Crude oil falls as markets reassess economic outlook
On 6 May, the blog warned that “it would be very nervous indeed about holding a long position” in crude oil. And as the chart shows, its fears were well-founded. Since 4 May: • WTI has fallen 19%, and $16/bbl, from its $86/bbl peak • The euro has also fallen 8%, and 6c, versus the […]
Retailers still see challenging times ahead
The blog is a great believer in the forecasting power of the major retailers. The top 3 global companies, Wal-Mart, Carrefour and Tesco all identified a change in consumer buying patterns as early as July 2007, when Tesco warned that “coming down the road is a tougher time“. Worryingly, their most recent comments give no […]
IMF warns on government spending
The global economy and the chemical industry have been boosted, since the Crisis began in 2008, by massive government stimulus programmes in areas such as autos and housing. Now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new report, focusing on what happens next. It warns that “general government debt is expected to rise by […]
Dow focuses on Performance, Market-Driven businesses
10 years ago, Dow was in the middle of completing its $12bn Union Carbide acquisition. This made it the world’s second largest chemical company, and a leading player in Basic petchems and polymers. More recently, however, higher oil prices have made life increasingly difficult for chemical businesses that lack upstream integration. Dow’s response, born of […]
Deepwater Horizon to lead to more regulation
The blog gained some key insights into the current M&A landscape this week, at the annual Pilko & Associates Round Table, co-organised with Shell Chemicals and leading law firm Allen & Overy: • M&A has become a ‘buyer’s market’, and this is not expected to change in the near future. • Credit markets remain cautious. […]
A new way of travelling light
As a very frequent traveller, the blog was intrigued by a flight attendant’s tip for packing more clothes, without creases, in a carry-on bag. The above photo from the New York Times shows her system, which involves rolling clothes tightly, with lighter items packed on top. Does it work? The blog will welcome your comments.
India’s motor industry focuses on ‘Nano’ cars
India was the only major country to see auto production growing last year. With the Asian Petchem Industry meeting opening in Mumbai, it seems timely to look at the progress of the Indian motor industry in recent years. As the chart shows (data from the Society of Indian Auto Manufacturers) , the sector has been […]
The Bank of Dad and Mum rules
Paul McCulley of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund managers, has been continually insightful about the lead-up to the current Crisis and its fall-out. He first alerted the blog to the work of Hyman Minsky, which is the best (and so far only) explanation for the disaster that is continuing to hit the world financial […]
Fannie and Freddie lose another $19bn
Senator Dirksen’s great one-liner in the US Senate, “A $bn here, a $bn there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money” is beginning to seem sadly out of date, as the costs of the financial crisis escalate. Today saw the Eurozone announce a €750bn ($936bn) bail-out fund, including €250bn from the IMF, to support its […]
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