Last November, the blog suggested “4 tips for survival“, based on a Financial Times series on recession survival strategy. A new article this week on ‘Leadership beyond a Downturn’ provides some key tips on how to manage next steps: • Prepare for continuing downturn, but also for some growth to return. • Look outside to […]
Chemicals and the Economy
8th European Aromatics & Derivatives Conference – Early booking discount ends Sunday
Our 8th European Aromatics & Derivatives conference, co-organised with ICIS, has a number of distinguished industry speakers including: • BASF, Jaroslaw Michniuk, Group VP, Styrenics Europe • Reliance, Rajen Udeshi, President Polyester Chain • Shell Chemicals, Jonathan Forbes-Lane, GM, Aromatics Europe In addition, the blog will be presenting its thoughts on “5 Key Steps to […]
ExxonMobil focuses on integration
ExxonMobil Chemicals was 6th in the ICIS list of Top 100 companies in 2002, during the last downturn. By last year, it had risen to 2nd place, according to the latest ICIS list. One of the secrets of its success was set out in an interesting Bloomberg interview yesterday with Basic Chemicals SVP, TJ Wojnar. […]
Oil price fall could support the US$
Pity your poor CFO. As well as keeping cashflow positive, they are also coping with major US$ volatility. In July 2008 it was trading at $0.63: €1, but then rose 43% to $.80: €1, before declining 28% to $0.68: €1 today. The catalyst for this volatility seems to be oil price movements. As the chart […]
Reported earnings forecast slow recovery when restocking ends
US corporate earnings were down a record 89% in Q1 versus the previous 12 months at just $7. Q2 saw only a minor improvement with earnings at only $8. Its interesting, therefore, to see market expectations for 2010. The chart is based on S&P analyst forecasts, and shows “reported earnings” (red line) are expected to […]
EU chemicals volume down 10% versus 2005 levels
The above chart, from Moncef Hadhri’s excellent monthly report from CEFIC (the European chemical industry association) provides an interesting snapshot of the state of the EU chemical industry. On the positive side, it shows that recovery from the destocking period was well underway in June (the latest data available). Volume (green line), had risen 10% […]
Current policies make downturns “more dangerous”
Some readers may remember the 2007 and 2008 reports from the Bank of International Settlements (the central bankers’ bank). In July 2007 the blog titled its summary ‘4 risks to the world economy’, and July 2008’s was titled ‘The difficult task of damage control’. Not all of the BIS’s forecasts proved correct, but it was […]
Central banks warn on likely growth rates
Coincidentally, both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England yesterday signalled the probable end of the ‘the recession’ yesterday. But as the blog noted last month, statistics don’t tell the whole story. The issue is that economists usually define recession as simply being 2 or more quarters of negative growth. Automatically, therefore, any […]
Smart shoppers focus on needs, not wants
After destocking, and then restocking, what next? The blog is a great believer in following the insights of the major retailers, who have been consistently “on the money” in their analysis. Thus it takes very seriously the comments of Wal-Mart CEO, Mike Duke, who has joined the camp of those who believe we face a […]
Tyre duties highlight protectionist pressures
Globalisation flourished whilst economic growth was strong. Jobs lost in Western countries were replaced by new jobs. Whilst cheaper production offshore kept consumer prices low, as well as bringing more people into the world economy. But today’s economic downturn means this virtuous circle is turning vicious. Western countries are becoming more protectionist and hope to […]
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