With the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve saying the outlook is “unusually uncertain“, its time to summon the chemical market genie. Of course, rubbing the lamp is not always successful. And if the genie does arrive, one can only ask 3 questions. So rather than risk wasting them, the blog has learnt to spend […]
Tag Archives | GDP
Consumer spending is 70% of US GDP. And because US GDP is so large, this means the US consumer is 17% of global GDP. This is the same as the combined GDP of China and Japan, who rank 2 and 3 after the USA. So a change in US consumer spending matters. And it particularly […]
The IeC Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) moved up sharply last month, as Western stock markets rallied further on news that the major economies were now officially exiting recession. Various definitions exist of recession, with most countries referencing 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The USA measures recessions differently, but the head of the official Business […]
World trade fell 12% last year, its worst decline since 1945. First estimates also suggest global GDP fell 2.2%, according to Pascal Lamy, head of the World Trade Organisation. This confirms the World Bank’s fears back last March, that the global economy might shrink for the first time since World War 2. Lamy went on […]
If you missed the blog’s recent webinar, Simon Robinson (ICIS online editor) has kindly posted a recording of it. To access this, you just need to join the new ICIS Chemicals and the Economy Group by clicking here.
Politicians and analysts often focus on selling dreams. Otherwise, we might not be tempted to buy their promises of better times ahead. But those running businesses have to remain realistic. BASF’s CEO, Jurgen Hambrecht, did exactly that in his comments on the outlook. And the above chart, from the UK’s National Institute of Economic and […]
Continental Europe is now in its worst recession since World War 2. GDP fell 2.5% in Q1, following a 1.6% fall in Q4. Germany, often viewed as the ‘motor’ of the eurozone, saw its GDP fall a shocking 3.8% as markets for its export-driven economy dried up. Central & Eastern Europe were badly hit by […]
China has just reported its first fall in exports for 7 years. These were still growing at 19.1% in October, but fell 2.2% in November. The suddenness of the downturn is also shown in the import figures, which were down 17.9% versus 2007. The numbers confirm the blog’s long-expressed fear that China, and the Asian […]
In September, the blog wondered whether “China’s interest in remaining the manufacturing capital of the world may be starting to wane”. Yesterday, Lou Jiwei, the chairman of China’s sovereign wealth fund (China Investment Corporation) confirmed the new focus on domestic growth. He suggested that “if China can do a good job domestically, that is the […]
The IMF now sees a 25% chance of a world recession this year, in which global growth would fall below 3%. Its base forecast is just 3.7%, compared to 5.2% before the credit crunch began. Sales growth for most chemicals is tied to GDP growth, so companies should expect volumes to come under pressure as […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.