Tag Archives | oil prices

Russia.jpg

Russia’s economy stalls

A few months ago, Russia’s economy seemed to be recovering from its problems in the late 1990′s. High prices meant oil revenues were increasing, and the currency was strong. Now, the combination of the oil price collapse and the credit crunch has reversed the position. Yesterday, the central bank was forced to raise rates to […]

Continue Reading
Crystal ball.jpg

The “crystal blog”

The blog’s forecasting record is reviewed in ICIS Chemical Business this week. Click here if you would like a copy. The blog’s aim is to “highlight relevant information for the busy executive, and to provide relevant and actionable analysis of key issues”. The article particularly notes the blog’s willingness to challenge consensus forecasts. The blog […]

Continue Reading

4 tips for survival

Last month, the blog titled its 2009 Outlook, Budgeting for Survival. This week, the Financial Times has begun a series on developing recession survival strategy. Its key tips are: • Manage your cash. Don’t spend money unnecessarily. • Keep a strong balance sheet. Have as little debt as possible. • Price your products/services keenly. Be […]

Continue Reading
TOTAL.jpg

TOTAL focus on lower debt, higher oil prices

TOTAL have adopted a very clear strategy for surviving the downturn. The results statement today particularly highlights their success in strengthening their balance sheet. Net debt to equity now stands at just 15.4%, whilst they are “maintaining a high-level of liquidity and divesting non-strategic holdings”. TOTAL also see a need “in the short-term” to adjust […]

Continue Reading
Petrol pump.jpg

Asian naphtha falls below $300/t

ICIS is reporting today that Shell sold open spec naphtha to Cargill at $267 CFR Japan, for the first half of January. Normally the naphtha: crude ratio is around 9.5: 1. But with January Brent at $66/bbl, the ratio is now just 4:1. The blog can safely say we have never seen it this low […]

Continue Reading

Oil producers at a crossroads

The blog has been thinking about last week’s leaked report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This said that the world needs “to invest $360bn each year until 2030 to replace falling oil production and increase supply”. The IEA based this sum on a new analysis of 500 oilfields, which showed the current depletion rate […]

Continue Reading
Website oilrigOct08.jpg

OPEC cuts production, worries about demand

Two main factors weigh on oil markets. The first, as PetroMatrix note in their latest weekly report, is that speculative players in virtually all commodity markets are being forced to deleverage their positions, and so “the bottom will be dependent on the end of the firesale”. The other factor is the continuing fall in demand. […]

Continue Reading
Khelil.jpg

Oil futures focus on $50/bbl for December

Futures markets are taking an increasingly gloomy view of oil demand. And over the past 2 weeks, the volume of NYMEX contracts to sell crude at $50/bbl has soared 50-fold. But so far, as the blog expected, physical prices have stabilised at the $70/bbl level in advance of OPEC’s emergency meeting on Friday. Current OPEC […]

Continue Reading
storm.jpg

Budgeting for survival

The blog prefers to be optimistic. But 30 years in the chemical industry has taught it to be extremely realistic. So its motto for 2009 Budgets is ‘batten down the hatches’. Chemical companies are likely to be sailing in some very rough seas, with treacherous currents and plenty of dangerous rocks. Survival, not growth, is […]

Continue Reading

OPEC bites the bullet

Events have moved quickly in oil markets in recent days. Last week, when oil was at $80/bbl, the blog argued that OPEC risked having to defend a $50/bbl price, by delaying production cuts until its 18 November meeting. Last night, OPEC signalled it agreed with this analysis, announcing that the meeting would now take place […]

Continue Reading